目的:为了研究设计,行为,并通过系统调查分析适应性试验,为未来的适应性试验提供建议。
方法:我们系统地搜索了MEDLINE,EMBASE,Cochrane中央控制试验登记册,以及截至2020年1月的ClinicalTrials.gov数据库。我们纳入了自我描述为自适应试验或应用自适应设计的试验。我们确定了三种常用的自适应设计,并在设计方面总结了它们的方法细节,行为,和分析。最后,我们为未来的适应性试验提供了建议.
结果:本研究共纳入128项试验。使用自适应设计的主要动机是加快试验和促进决策(n=29,31.5%)。三种最常用的方法是分组序贯设计(GSD)(n=71,55.5%),自适应剂量发现设计(ADFD)(n=35,27.3%),和自适应随机化设计(ARD)(n=26,20.3%)。中期分析的时间和频率在四分之三的GSD试验(n=55,77.5%)和一半的ADFD试验(n=19,54.3%)中进行了详细说明;但是,超过一半的ARD试验(n=15,57.7%)未提供该信息.一些试验选择了与主要结局不同的结局进行中期分析(GSD:n=7,12.7%;ADFD:n=8,27.6%;ARD:n=7,50.0%),但这些试验中的大多数没有提供这种选择的明确原因(GSD:n=7,100.0%;ADFD:n=7,87.5%;ARD:n=5,71.4%).超过一半(n=76,59.4%)的试验没有提到支持文件的可访问性,2/3(n=86,67.2%)没有说明建立独立的数据监测委员会(IDMC).此外,在进行1/6的适应性试验期间观察到计划外调整(n=22,17.2%).根据我们的发现,我们为今后改进适应性试验提供了14条建议.
结论:适应性试验的方法需要显著改进,特别是在中期分析领域,IDMC的建立,和计划外的调整。在这项研究中,我们为研究人员精心设计提供一般和具体方面的建议,行为,并分析适应性试验。
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the design, conduct, and analysis of adaptive trials through a systematic survey and provide recommendations for future adaptive trials.
METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases up to January 2020. We included trials that were self-described as adaptive trials or applied adaptive designs. We identified three frequently used adaptive designs and summarized their methodological details in terms of design, conduct, and analysis. Lastly, we provided recommendations for future adaptive trials.
RESULTS: We included a total of 128 trials in this study. The primary motivations for using adaptive design were to speed up the trials and facilitate decision-making (n = 29, 31.5%). The three most frequently used methods were group sequential design (GSD) (n = 71, 55.5%), adaptive dose-finding design (ADFD) (n = 35, 27.3%), and adaptive randomization design (ARD) (n = 26, 20.3%). The timing and frequency of interim analysis were detailed in three-fourths of the GSD trials (n = 55, 77.5%) and in half of the ADFD trials (n = 19, 54.3%); however, more than half of the ARD trials (n = 15, 57.7%) did not provide this information. Some trials selected a different outcome than the primary outcome for interim analysis (GSD: n = 7, 12.7%; ADFD: n = 8, 27.6%; ARD: n = 7, 50.0%), but the majority of these trials did not provide explicit reasons for this choice (GSD: n = 7, 100.0%; ADFD: n = 7, 87.5%; ARD: n = 5, 71.4%). More than half (n = 76, 59.4%) of trials did not mention the accessibility of supporting documents, and two-thirds (n = 86, 67.2%) did not state the establishment of independent data monitoring committees (IDMCs). Moreover, unplanned adjustments were observed during the conduct of one-sixth adaptive trials (n = 22, 17.2%). Based on our findings, we provide 14 recommendations for improving adaptive trials in the future.
CONCLUSIONS: Substantial improvements were needed in methods of adaptive trials, particularly in the areas of interim analysis, the establishment of independent data monitoring committees, and unplanned adjustments. In this study, we offer recommendations from both general and specific aspects for researchers to carefully design, conduct, and analyze adaptive trials.