种群对环境变化和变化的动态和生态进化反应从根本上取决于关键生活史特征的表型表达中的组内和组间变异的组合,以及这些性状选择的相应变化。具体来说,在部分迁徙人群中,时空动态取决于季节性迁移与居住地的适应性表型表达程度,当选择有利于迁移时,更多的人迁移。适应的机会(或,相反,适应不良)的表达在生命早期可能特别重要,通过移民与居住的初步发展。然而,在早期生活迁移的队列内和队列间动态中,以及相关的生存选择,没有在任何系统中量化,防止对适应性早期生活表达的任何推断。这种分析被排除在外,因为关于季节性运动和足够年轻个体生存的数据,跨多个队列,没有被收集。我们在部分迁徙人口中连续11个队列中,对9359个色环的欧洲少年粗毛Gulosusaristotelis进行了广泛的全年实地考察。我们拟合了贝叶斯多状态捕获-标记-重新捕获模型,以量化每个队列从出生后的第一年在短时间内迁移与居住和相关生存的早期变化,从而量化多年内和跨年迁移的适应性表型表达程度。所有队列基本上都是部分迁徙的,但是迁移的程度和时间在队列内部和队列之间差异很大。迁移与居住的强烈生存选择都发生在几年内的短时间内,累积在整个第一年,生成瞬时和累积网络选择的实例,这些实例在较粗的时间分辨率下会被掩盖。Further,选择的幅度和方向因年份而异,在跨队列的早期生活迁移中产生强烈波动的生存选择,在自然界中很少见。然而,迁移程度与选择方向没有强烈的共同变化,表明生命早期适应性表型表达有限。这些结果揭示了对关键生活史特征的早期生活表达和选择的动态,季节性迁徙,可以跨季节出现,annual,和多年的时间框架,但基本上是分离的。这限制了适应性表型的潜力,微观进化,和人口对季节环境变化的动态响应。
Population dynamic and eco-evolutionary responses to environmental variation and change fundamentally depend on combinations of within- and among-cohort variation in the phenotypic expression of key life-history traits, and on corresponding variation in selection on those traits. Specifically, in partially migratory populations, spatio-seasonal dynamics depend on the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of seasonal migration versus residence, where more individuals migrate when selection favours migration. Opportunity for adaptive (or, conversely, maladaptive) expression could be particularly substantial in early life, through the initial development of migration versus residence. However, within- and among-cohort dynamics of early-life migration, and of associated survival selection, have not been quantified in any system, preventing any inference on adaptive early-life expression. Such analyses have been precluded because data on seasonal movements and survival of sufficient young individuals, across multiple cohorts, have not been collected. We undertook extensive year-round field resightings of 9359 colour-ringed juvenile European shags Gulosus aristotelis from 11 successive cohorts in a partially migratory population. We fitted Bayesian multi-state capture-mark-recapture models to quantify early-life variation in migration versus residence and associated survival across short temporal occasions through each cohort\'s first year from fledging, thereby quantifying the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of migration within and across years. All cohorts were substantially partially migratory, but the degree and timing of migration varied considerably within and among cohorts. Episodes of strong survival selection on migration versus residence occurred both on short timeframes within years, and cumulatively across entire first years, generating instances of instantaneous and cumulative net selection that would be obscured at coarser temporal resolutions. Further, the magnitude and direction of selection varied among years, generating strong fluctuating survival selection on early-life migration across cohorts, as rarely evidenced in nature. Yet, the degree of migration did not strongly covary with the direction of selection, indicating limited early-life adaptive phenotypic expression. These results reveal how dynamic early-life expression of and selection on a key life-history trait, seasonal migration, can emerge across seasonal, annual, and multi-year timeframes, yet be substantially decoupled. This restricts the potential for adaptive phenotypic, microevolutionary, and population dynamic responses to changing seasonal environments.