■黄病毒对全球健康构成持续威胁,然而,它们在全球范围内的负担和趋势仍然缺乏量化。我们的目标是评估全球,区域,和三种常见黄病毒感染的国家发病率(登革热,黄热病,和寨卡)从2011年到2021年。
从全球疾病负担中检索了204个国家和地区三种常见黄病毒感染的数量和发病率数据,受伤,和风险因素研究(GBD)2021年。估算的年度百分比变化(EAPC)分别用于量化2011-2016年,2016-2019年和2019-2021年的时间趋势。
■在2021年,全球估计有59,220,428人被感染,包括58,964,185例登革热病例,86509例黄热病,寨卡病毒感染169,734例。从2011年至2016年,全球三种常见黄病毒感染的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)每年平均增加5.08%(95%CI4.12至6.05),而从2016年至2019年,每年平均减少-8.37%(95%CI-12.46至-4.08)。ASIR在2019-2021年期间保持稳定,全球三种常见黄病毒感染的平均变化为0.69%(95%CI-0.96至2.37)。区域,三种常见的黄病毒感染的负担主要集中在中等收入地区,比如南亚,东南亚,热带拉丁美洲。此外,在国家一级,SDI水平和ASI之间存在倒置的“U”关系。值得注意的是,在全球范围内,感染病例的平均年龄有所增加,特别是在高收入地区。
黄病毒感染是全球范围内日益增加的公共卫生问题,发病率有相当大的地区和人口差异。政策制定者和医疗保健提供者必须对COVID-19和其他环境因素对黄病毒感染风险的影响保持警惕,并为未来可能的疫情爆发做好准备。
UNASSIGNED: Flavivirus pose a continued threat to global health, yet their worldwide burden and trends remain poorly quantified. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national incidence of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021.
UNASSIGNED: Data on the number and rate of incidence for the three common flavivirus infection in 204 countries and territories were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend during 2011-2016, 2016-2019, and 2019-2021, respectively.
UNASSIGNED: In 2021, an estimated 59,220,428 individuals were infected globally, comprising 58,964,185 cases of dengue, 86,509 cases of yellow fever, and 169,734 cases of Zika virus infection. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of the three common flavivirus infections increased by an annual average of 5.08% (95% CI 4.12 to 6.05) globally from 2011 to 2016, whereas decreased by an annual average of -8.37% (95% CI -12.46 to -4.08) per year between 2016 to 2019. The ASIR remained stable during 2019-2021, with an average change of 0.69% (95% CI -0.96 to 2.37) per year globally for the three common flavivirus infections. Regionally, the burden of the three common flavivirus infections was primarily concentrated in those regions with middle income, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Latin America. Additionally, at the country level, there was an inverted \"U\" relationship between the SDI level and the ASI. Notably, an increase in the average age of infected cases has been observed worldwide, particularly in higher-income regions.
UNASSIGNED: Flavivirus infections are an expanding public health concern worldwide, with considerable regional and demographic variation in the incidence. Policymakers and healthcare providers must stay vigilant regarding the impact of COVID-19 and other environmental factors on the risk of flavivirus infection and be prepared for potential future outbreaks.