COVID-19大流行严重影响了欧洲,导致案件数量和死亡人数因国家而异。第二波COVID-19大流行已经突破了欧洲的边界。公共卫生监测是必要的,以告知政策和指导领导人。
这项研究旨在为COVID-19传播提供先进的监测指标,这些指标可以解释大流行的每周变化,速度,加速度,混蛋,和坚持,更好地了解面临爆炸性增长风险的国家和那些正在有效管理大流行的国家。
我们进行了纵向趋势分析,并从公共卫生登记处提取了62天的COVID-19数据。我们使用经验差分方程来衡量欧洲的每日病例数,作为先前病例数的函数,测试水平,和基于动态面板模型的每周移位变量,该模型使用广义矩量法通过在R.
新的COVID-19病例中实施Arellano-Bond估计器,从158,741例(2021年1月4日至10日第1周)略有减少至152,064例(2021年1月11日至17日第2周),累计病例从22,507,271(第1周)增加到23,890,761(第2周),在1月10日至1月17日期间,每周增加1,383,490。法国,德国,意大利,西班牙,在第1周,英国的新病例7天移动平均线最大。在第2周,法国和西班牙的7天移动平均线增加。从第1周到第2周,速度下降(每100,000从37.72下降到33.02),加速度下降(0.39至-0.16/100,000),和jerk增加(每100,000-1.30至1.37)。
英国,西班牙,葡萄牙,特别是,面临COVID-19传播迅速扩大的风险。对欧洲地区的调查表明,在2021年1月4日至1月17日期间,COVID-19病例有所减少。不幸的是,混蛋的速度,在本月初对欧洲不利,逆转了方向,变得积极,尽管速度和加速度下降。最后,第2周的7天持续率高于第1周.这些措施表明,第二波大流行可能正在消退,但在缺乏快速政策应对的情况下,一些国家仍面临新疫情和传播增加的风险。
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders.
This study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively.
We performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.
New COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to -0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (-1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000).
The United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.