Vaccine effectiveness

疫苗有效性
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究测量了COVID-19疫苗对入院和严重COVID-19的有效性(CVE)。
    这项研究是使用4月份来自八个省的数据进行的测试阴性病例对照设计,2021年3月,2022年。根据SARS-CoV-2的RT-PCR测试结果将个体分类为病例和对照,并根据进行测试的时间以及入院的时间进行匹配。相关性的度量是通过单变量和多元逻辑回归的比值比(OR)。已进行了多重逻辑回归,以考虑混杂因素和潜在影响修饰。CVE计算为CVE=(1-OR)*100,置信区间为95%。
    在19314名入院患者中,其中13216例(68.4%)为病例,6098例(31.6%)为对照,1313人(6.8%)死亡。从总,5959例(30.8%)患者接种了疫苗,其中1例,两个,加强剂量为2443(12.6%),2796(14.5),和720(3.7),分别。估计只有一个剂量的调整效果,两剂和booter疫苗接种为22%(95%CI:14%-29%),35%(95%CI:29%-41%)和33%(95%CI:16%-47%),分别。此外,调整后的疫苗对严重结局的有效性为33%(95%CI:19%-44%),34%(95%CI:20%-45%)和20%(95%CI:-29%-50%)两次和加强疫苗接种,分别。
    我们的研究得出结论,全面接种疫苗,尽管与其他地方的类似研究相比效果较差,伊朗COVID-19住院人数和死亡人数减少,特别是在三角洲变异期,在Omicron变体优势期间观察到下降。
    UNASSIGNED: This study measures the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (CVE) against hospital admission and severe COVID-19.
    UNASSIGNED: This study is a test-negative case-control design using data from eight provinces in April, 2021 until March, 2022. The individuals were classified as cases and controls based on the results of the RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 and matched based on the timing of the test being conducted as well as the timing of hospital admission. The measure of association was an odds ratio (OR) by univariate and multiple logistic regression. The multiple logistic regression has been carried out to take confounding factors and potential effect modifiers into account. The CVE was computed as CVE = (1 - OR)*100 with 95% confidence interval.
    UNASSIGNED: Among 19314 admitted patients, of whom 13216 (68.4%) were cases and 6098 (31.6%) were controls, 1313 (6.8%) died. From total, 5959 (30.8%) patients had received the vaccine in which one, two, and booster doses were 2443 (12.6%), 2796 (14.5٪), and 720 (3.7٪), respectively. The estimated adjusted effectiveness of only one dose, two doses and booter vaccination were 22% (95% CI: 14%-29%), 35% (95% CI: 29%-41%) and 33% (95% CI: 16%-47%), respectively. In addition, the adjusted vaccine effectiveness against severe outcome was 33% (95% CI: 19%- 44%), 34% (95% CI: 20%- 45%) and 20% (95% CI: -29%- 50%) for those who received one, two and booster vaccinations, respectively.
    UNASSIGNED: Our study concluded that full vaccination, though less effective compared to similar studies elsewhere, decreased hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19 in Iran, particularly during the Delta variant period, with an observed decline during the Omicron variant dominance.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在中国,与2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行前的季节相比,2022-2023年流感季节开始较早,其特征是流感活动水平和各种呼吸道病原体的共同循环水平较高.及时准确地估计流感疫苗对感染的有效性(IVE)可用于指导公共卫生措施。
    进行了一项测试阴性研究,以使用来自鄞州的中国电子健康记录研究(CHERRY)研究的数据来估计针对实验室确认的流感的IVE,该研究前瞻性地整合了实验室,疫苗接种,和鄞州卫生行政数据,中国南方。我们纳入了在2023年10月至2024年3月期间出现流感样疾病并接受核酸检测和/或抗原检测的患者。对IVE的估计进行了年龄调整,性别,提交样本的月份,慢性合并症,和住院状况。
    总共205028名参与者,包括96298例流感病例(7.6%接种疫苗)和108730例流感阴性对照(13.4%接种疫苗),有资格进行此分析。IVE的估计值为49.4%(95%CI,47.8%-50.9%),41.9%(95%CI,39.8%-44.0%),和总流感的59.9%(95%CI,57.9%-61.9%),甲型流感,乙型流感,分别。7-17岁的个体的IVE较低(38.6%),比6个月-6年的45.8%,18-64年为46.7%,≥65岁为46.1%。在患有慢性合并症的患者中,接种疫苗将感染风险降低了44.4%。随着流感活动水平的变化和主要流感毒株的转换,IVE随流行周的变化而变化。
    2023-2024季节的流感疫苗接种对整个人群都具有预防感染的作用。
    UNASSIGNED: In China, the 2022-2023 influenza season began earlier and was characterized by higher levels of influenza activity and co-circulation of various respiratory pathogens compared with seasons before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Timely and precise estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against infections can be used to guide public health measures.
    UNASSIGNED: A test-negative study was conducted to estimate IVE against laboratory-confirmed influenza using data from the CHinese Electronic health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study that prospectively integrated laboratory, vaccination, and health administrative data in Yinzhou, southern China. We included patients who presented influenza-like illness and received nucleic acid tests and/or antigen tests between October 2023 and March 2024. Estimates of IVE were adjusted for age, gender, month of specimen submitted, chronic comorbidities, and hospitalization status.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 205 028 participants, including 96 298 influenza cases (7.6% vaccinated) and 108 730 influenza-negative controls (13.4% vaccinated), were eligible for this analysis. The estimates of IVE were 49.4% (95% CI, 47.8%-50.9%), 41.9% (95% CI, 39.8%-44.0%), and 59.9% (95% CI, 57.9%-61.9%) against overall influenza, influenza A, and influenza B, respectively. A lower IVE was observed for individuals aged 7-17 years (38.6%), vs 45.8% for 6 months-6 years, 46.7% for 18-64 years, and 46.1% for ≥65 years. Vaccination reduced the risk of infection by 44.4% among patients with chronic comorbidities. IVEs varied by epidemic weeks with the changes in influenza activity levels and the switch of dominant influenza strains.
    UNASSIGNED: Influenza vaccination in the 2023-2024 season was protective against infection for the entire population.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:评估二价BA4-5或BA.1mRNA加强疫苗在免疫受损个体中对新冠肺炎相关住院和死亡的有效性和减弱。
    方法:使用匹配的队列设计,从2022年9月1日至2023年10月31日在北欧国家进行全国分析。用BA4-5或BA.1疫苗加强的个体与未加强的个体1:1匹配。感兴趣的结果是在随访的第270天对新冠肺炎相关住院和死亡的国家联合疫苗有效性(VE)估计。以45天的间隔评估衰落。
    结果:总共包括352,762BA4-5和191,070BA.1加强疫苗剂量。在第270天,二价BA4-5疫苗与Covid-19相关住院的比较VE为34.2%(95%CI,7.1%至61.3%),BA.1疫苗为42.6%(95%CI,31.3%至53.9%),与匹配的未加强疫苗相比。二价BA4-5疫苗与Covid-19相关死亡的比较VE为53.9%(95%CI,38.6%至69.3%),BA.1疫苗为57.9%(95%CI,48.5%至67.4%)。
    结论:在免疫受损的个体中,在9个月的随访期内,用二价BA4-5或BA.1加强剂接种降低了新冠肺炎相关住院和死亡的风险。自疫苗接种以来的头几个月的有效性最高,随后逐渐减弱。
    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effectiveness and waning of the bivalent BA.4-5 or BA.1 mRNA booster vaccine against Covid-19-related hospitalization and death in immunocompromised individuals.
    METHODS: Nationwide analyses across Nordic countries from 1 September 2022 to 31 October 2023 using a matched cohort design. Individuals boosted with a BA.4-5 or BA.1 vaccine were matched 1:1 with unboosted individuals. The outcomes of interest were country-combined vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates against Covid-19-related hospitalization and death at day 270 of follow-up. Waning was assessed in 45-day intervals.
    RESULTS: A total of 352,762 BA.4-5 and 191,070 BA.1 booster vaccine doses were included. At day 270, the comparative VE against Covid-19-related hospitalization was 34.2% (95% CI, 7.1% to 61.3%) for the bivalent BA.4-5 vaccine and 42.6% (95% CI, 31.3% to 53.9%) for the BA.1 vaccine compared with matched unboosted. The comparative VE against Covid-19-related death was 53.9% (95% CI, 38.6% to 69.3%) for the bivalent BA.4-5 vaccine and 57.9% (95% CI, 48.5% to 67.4%) for the BA.1 vaccine.
    CONCLUSIONS: In immunocompromised individuals, vaccination with bivalent BA.4-5 or BA.1 booster lowered the risk of Covid-19-related hospitalization and death over a follow-up period of 9 months. The effectiveness was highest during the first months since vaccination with subsequent gradual waning.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景COVID-19仍然是一种主要的传染病,对个人和公共卫生有重大影响,包括感染后综合征的风险,长的COVID。SARS-CoV-2的显性变体的连续变化需要仔细研究预防策略的效果。我们的目标是评估疫苗接种后的有效性,针对SARS-CoV-2变种BA1/2和BA4/5+感染引起的需要氧气支持的严重病例的感染后和混合免疫,以及针对感染人群中的长期COVID及其随时间的变化。方法我们使用具有时变协变量和日历时间的Cox回归分析,并将逻辑回归应用于2021年12月至2023年8月的捷克国家级数据。结果最近加强了疫苗接种,感染后和混合免疫对COVID-19的严重病程提供了显著的保护作用,而超过10个月前的未加强疫苗接种具有微不足道的保护作用。针对BA1/2或BA4/5+变体的疫苗接种后免疫,特别是基于原始疫苗类型,与感染后和混合免疫相比,似乎迅速减弱。一旦被感染,然而,以前的免疫对长期COVID只起到很小的保护作用。结论疫苗接种仍然是对抗COVID-19严重病程的有效预防措施,但其有效性随着时间的推移而减弱,从而凸显了加强剂量的重要性。一旦被感染,疫苗可能对长型COVID的发展有很小的保护作用。
    BackgroundCOVID-19 remains a major infectious disease with substantial implications for individual and public health including the risk of a post-infection syndrome, long COVID. The continuous changes in dominant variants of SARS-CoV-2 necessitate a careful study of the effect of preventative strategies.AimWe aimed to estimate the effectiveness of post-vaccination, post-infection and hybrid immunity against severe cases requiring oxygen support caused by infections with SARS-CoV-2 variants BA1/2 and BA4/5+, and against long COVID in the infected population and their changes over time.MethodsWe used a Cox regression analysis with time-varying covariates and calendar time and logistic regression applied to national-level data from Czechia from December 2021 until August 2023.ResultsRecently boosted vaccination, post-infection and hybrid immunity provide significant protection against a severe course of COVID-19, while unboosted vaccination more than 10 months ago has a negligible protective effect. The post-vaccination immunity against the BA1/2 or BA4/5+ variants, especially based on the original vaccine types, appears to wane rapidly compared with post-infection and hybrid immunity. Once infected, however, previous immunity plays only a small protective role against long COVID.ConclusionVaccination remains an effective preventative measure against a severe course of COVID-19 but its effectiveness wanes over time thus highlighting the importance of booster doses. Once infected, vaccines may have a small protective effect against the development of long COVID.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在后COVID-19大流行时代,流感病毒感染不断导致全球疾病负担。评估疫苗对流感感染的有效性对于告知疫苗设计和疫苗接种策略至关重要。在这项研究中,我们招募了1120名患有流感样疾病(ILI)的患者,他们在伊犁哈萨克自治州的4家哨点医院的发烧诊所就诊,新疆维吾尔自治区,中国,2024年1月1日至4月7日。使用测试阴性设计,我们估计流感疫苗对医疗流感感染的有效性(VE)为54.7%(95%CrI:23.7,73.1),62.3%(95%CrI:29.3,79.8)抗甲型流感,和51.2%(95%CrI:28.7,83.0)抗B型流感。尽管本研究中估计的VE适中,流感疫苗接种仍然是社区预防流感的最重要方法。
    In the post-COVID-19 pandemic era, influenza virus infections continuously lead to a global disease burden. Evaluating vaccine effectiveness against influenza infection is crucial to inform vaccine design and vaccination strategy. In this study, we recruited 1120 patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) who attended fever clinics of 4 sentinel hospitals in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, from January 1 to April 7, 2024. Using a test-negative design, we estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 54.7% (95% CrI: 23.7, 73.1) against medical-attended influenza infection, with 62.3% (95% CrI: 29.3, 79.8) against influenza A, and 51.2% (95% CrI: 28.7, 83.0) against influenza B. Despite the moderate VE estimated in this study, influenza vaccination remains the most important approach to prevent influenza at the community level.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:以患者为中心的沟通已成为增加疫苗摄取的有效策略。借鉴以往研究建立的循证路径,我们的研究考察了以病人为中心的沟通之间的关系,HPV知识和认为HPV疫苗的有效性。我们还探讨了影响以患者为中心的沟通的社会人口因素,HPV知识和认为HPV疫苗的有效性。
    方法:我们分析了来自健康信息国家趋势调查(HINTS)5,第1周期的数据,运行了结构方程模型(SEM),以测试我们概念框架中的路径。
    结果:我们的样本包括2522名18-79岁(平均年龄47.98岁)的成年人,他们主要是非西班牙裔白人(67.65%),女性(53.31%),异性恋(95.12%)。最终结构模型的模型拟合统计指示良好的拟合[RMSEA=0.039,CFI=0.99,TLI=0.99,和SRMR=0.070]。将以患者为中心的沟通与HPV知识联系起来的路径(β=0.011,p<0.05),以及将以患者为中心的沟通与HPV疫苗有效性联系起来的知识介导路径(β=0.007,p<0.05)具有统计学意义。
    结论:HPV研究人员必须深入研究以患者为中心的沟通实践,以提高疫苗的摄取。根据个人需求和偏好量身定制对话是增强HPV知识的关键,并最终改善人们对HPV疫苗有效性的看法,提高其可接受性。
    BACKGROUND: Patient-centered communication has emerged as a potent strategy for increasing vaccine uptake. Drawing on evidence-based paths established from previous studies, our study examines the relationship between patient-centered communication, HPV knowledge and perceived HPV vaccine effectiveness. We also explored the sociodemographic factors impacting patient-centered communication, HPV knowledge and perceived HPV vaccine effectiveness.
    METHODS: We analyzed data from the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) 5, Cycle 1, ran Structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the pathways in our conceptual framework.
    RESULTS: Our sample comprised 2522 adults aged 18-79 (mean age 47.98 years) who were predominantly Non-Hispanic White (67.65%), female (53.31%), and heterosexual (95.12%). The model fit statistics for the final structural model indicated a good fit [RMSEA= 0.039, CFI=0.99 TLI= 0.99, and SRMR =0.070]. The path linking patient-centered communication to HPV knowledge (β=0.011, p<0.05), and the knowledge-mediated path linking patient-centered communication to HPV vaccine effectiveness (β=0.007, p<0.05) were found to be statistically significant.
    CONCLUSIONS: HPV researchers must delve deeper into patient-centered communication practices to improve vaccine uptake. Tailoring conversations to individual needs and preferences is key to enhancing HPV knowledge, and ultimately improve perceptions of HPV vaccine effectiveness and increase its acceptability.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    监测COVID-19疫苗接种的有效性对于了解接种疫苗的人群,尤其是老年人,充分保护免受新的SARS-CoV-2变体的出现。这项研究旨在调查在澳门OmicronBF.7激增期间,COVID-19疫苗接种对住院老年患者症状严重程度和死亡率的影响。回顾性分析2022年12月12日至2023年3月12日在建武医院住院的60岁或以上住院患者的电子健康记录和疫苗接种登记数据。这项研究涉及848人,包括426名接种疫苗和422名未接种疫苗的人。平均CXR得分(8.95±9.49与11.41±10.81,p<0.001)和平均MEWS评分(0.96±2.01vs.接种组的1.49±2.45,p<0.001)较低。通过比较剂量计数,死亡几率无显著差异.根据上次接种疫苗的时间,128人被归类为完整疫苗接种,298人被归类为不完整疫苗接种。完全接种疫苗组的死亡风险降低了54%(95%CI0.23-0.91)(p=0.026)。研究结果不仅再次证实了COVID-19疫苗接种的有效性,而且,更重要的是,强调疫苗接种时机的重要性,以最大限度地发挥疫苗的保护作用。
    Monitoring the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination is critical for understanding if the vaccinated population, especially the elderly, is adequately protected from the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. This study aimed to investigate the effects of COVID-19 vaccination on the severity of symptoms and mortality in hospitalized geriatric patients during the Omicron BF.7 surge in Macao. Data from electronic health records and vaccination registry of inpatients aged 60 years or above admitted to Kiang Wu Hospital from 12 December 2022 to 12 March 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. The study involved 848 people, including 426 vaccinated and 422 unvaccinated individuals. The mean CXR scores (8.95 ± 9.49 vs. 11.41 ± 10.81, p < 0.001) and the mean MEWS scores (0.96 ± 2.01 vs. 1.49 ± 2.45, p < 0.001) were lower in the vaccinated group. By comparing the dose counts, no significant difference was seen in the odds of death. Based on the time of the last vaccination, 128 people were categorized as complete and 298 as incomplete vaccination. The complete vaccination group showed a 54% (95% CI 0.23-0.91) reduction in mortality risk (p = 0.026). The study findings not only reconfirm the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination but, more importantly, highlight the importance of vaccination timing to maximize vaccines\' protective effect.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    疫苗有效性(VE)研究为监测疫苗性能和制定政策提供了现实证据。世卫组织东地中海区域办事处支持一项区域研究,以评估2021年6月至2023年8月期间四个国家COVID-19疫苗对不同临床结果的VE。在埃及和巴基斯坦的2707名卫生工作者中进行了卫生工作者队列研究,其中171人经历了有症状的实验室确认的SARS-CoV-2感染。在Omicron变异优势期,在伊朗和约旦对4017例严重急性呼吸道感染(SARI)患者(2347例对照和1670例)进行了测试阴性设计病例对照研究。对每项研究的VE估计值进行计算,并通过研究设计对几种疫苗类型进行汇总(BBIBP-CorV,AZD1222、BNT162b2和mRNA-1273等)。在卫生工作者中,与部分疫苗接种相比,只能计算出针对完整主要系列的症状感染的VE,表明提供额外剂量的mRNA疫苗的好处(VE:88.9%,95CI:15.3-98.6%),而其他疫苗产品的结果尚无定论。在SARI患者中,与未接种疫苗相比,使用任何疫苗的完整初级系列的住院VE为20.9%(95CI:4.5-34.5%)。对单个疫苗的有效性估计,加强剂量,次要结局(重症监护病房入院和死亡)尚无定论.未来的VE研究将需要在大流行期间后期进行设计和分析方面应对挑战,并能够利用各国加强的能力。
    Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies provide real-world evidence to monitor vaccine performance and inform policy. The WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean supported a regional study to assess the VE of COVID-19 vaccines against different clinical outcomes in four countries between June 2021 and August 2023. Health worker cohort studies were conducted in 2707 health workers in Egypt and Pakistan, of whom 171 experienced symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Test-negative design case-control studies were conducted in Iran and Jordan in 4017 severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) patients (2347 controls and 1670 cases) during the Omicron variant dominant period. VE estimates were calculated for each study and pooled by study design for several vaccine types (BBIBP-CorV, AZD1222, BNT162b2, and mRNA-1273, among others). Among health workers, VE against symptomatic infection of a complete primary series could only be computed compared to partial vaccination, suggesting a benefit of providing an additional dose of mRNA vaccines (VE: 88.9%, 95%CI: 15.3-98.6%), while results were inconclusive for other vaccine products. Among SARI patients, VE against hospitalization of a complete primary series with any vaccine compared to non-vaccinated was 20.9% (95%CI: 4.5-34.5%). Effectiveness estimates for individual vaccines, booster doses, and secondary outcomes (intensive care unit admission and death) were inconclusive. Future VE studies will need to address challenges in both design and analysis when conducted late during a pandemic and will be able to utilize the strengthened capacities in countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    测试阴性设计越来越多地用于评估疫苗的有效性,因为与其他研究设计相比,由于寻求医疗保健的行为和较低的成本而具有期望的特性,例如减少的混淆。一个人寻求护理的决定通常取决于他们的疾病严重程度,严重疾病比轻度疾病更容易被捕获。由于许多疫苗可能减轻疾病的严重程度,这种现象通常导致对有症状疾病的疫苗有效性的向上估计偏倚.为了解决由此产生的偏见,已经提出了分析解决方案,如调整或匹配严重性。在本文中,我们研究了试验阴性设计在不同疫苗对疾病严重程度的影响下的表现,以及调整或匹配严重程度的效用.我们进一步考虑了通过将招募限制在门诊范围内仅关注轻度疾病的研究的含义。通过分析框架和模拟以及现实世界的例子,我们证明,当接种疫苗减轻疾病严重程度时,偏倚的程度受轻度疾病相对于重度疾病的不确定程度的影响。当疫苗接种不能减轻疾病严重程度时,偏见是不存在的。我们进一步表明,分析修复可以忽略影响偏差,而仅门诊研究经常会产生向下偏差的估计。
    Test-negative designs are increasingly used to evaluate vaccine effectiveness because of desirable properties like reduced confounding due to healthcare-seeking behaviors and lower cost compared to other study designs. An individual\'s decision to seek care often depends on their disease severity, with severe disease more likely to be captured than mild disease. As many vaccines likely attenuate disease severity, this phenomenon generally results in an upward-biased estimate of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease. To address the resulting bias, analytic solutions like adjusting for or matching on severity have been suggested. In this paper, we examine the performance of the test-negative design under different vaccine effects on disease severity and the utility of adjusting or matching on severity. We further consider the implications of studies that focus only on milder disease by restricting recruitment to outpatient settings. Through an analytic framework and simulations accompanied by a real-world example, we demonstrate that, when vaccination attenuates disease severity, the magnitude of bias is influenced by the degree of under-ascertainment of mild disease relative to severe disease. When vaccination does not attenuate disease severity, bias is not present. We further show that analytic fixes negligibly impact bias and that outpatient-only studies frequently produce downward-biased estimates.
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    2023年,霍乱影响了大约100万人,并在全球造成5000多人死亡。主要在低收入和冲突环境中。近年来,新爆发的霍乱数量迅速增加。Further,冲突加剧了持续的霍乱爆发,气候变化,基础设施差,导致长期的危机。因此,对治疗和干预的需求正在迅速超过现有资源的可用性.在改善水和卫生系统之前,霍乱,一种主要通过受污染的水源传播的疾病,也经常蹂躏高收入国家。摇摇欲坠的基础设施和气候变化正在使新地点面临风险-即使在高收入国家也是如此。因此,了解霍乱的传播和预防至关重要。抗击霍乱需要多种干预措施,最常见的两种是行为教育和水处理。两剂量口服霍乱疫苗(OCV)通常被用作这些干预措施的补充。由于供应有限,各国最近已改用单剂量疫苗(OCV1)。一个挑战在于了解及时分配OCV1的位置,特别是在缺乏资源充足的公共卫生监测系统的环境中。当霍乱在这样的地方发生和传播时,及时,准确,和公开可访问的爆发数据通常无法用于疾病建模和后续决策。在这项研究中,我们证明了开放获取的数据在快速评估霍乱传播和疫苗有效性方面的价值.具体来说,我们获得了两个国家最近爆发的霍乱的非机器可读(NMR)流行曲线,海地和喀麦隆,来自发布在形势和疾病爆发新闻报道中的数字。我们使用计算数字化技术来得出霍乱病例的每周计数,当与报告的累积病例数进行比较时,导致名义上的差异(即,海地和喀麦隆的相对错误率分别为5.67%和0.54%)。鉴于这些数字化的时间序列,我们利用EpiEstim-一个开源建模平台-通过有效繁殖数(Rt)快速估计随时间变化的疾病传播。为了比较两个考虑国家的OCV1有效性,我们还使用了VaxEstim,EpiEstim的最新扩展,通过三个输入之间的关系来促进疫苗有效性的估计:基本复制数(R0),Rt,和疫苗覆盖率。这里,以海地和喀麦隆为例,我们演示了VaxEstim在低资源环境中的首次实现.重要的是,我们是第一个使用VaxEstim的数字化数据,而不是传统的流行病监测数据。在疫情初期,这两个国家的每周滚动平均Rt估计值均升高:海地为2.60[95%可信区间:2.42-2.79],喀麦隆为1.90[1.14-2.95]。这些值与海地以前对R0的估计基本一致,其中平均值从1.06到3.72,在喀麦隆,其中平均值范围为1.10至3.50。在海地和喀麦隆,这个高传输的初始周期先于一个较长的周期,在此期间,Rt在临界阈值1附近振荡。我们从VaxEstim得出的结果表明,海地的OCV1有效性高于喀麦隆(75.32%有效[54.00-86.39%]与54.88%[18.94-84.90%])。这些对OCV1有效性的估计通常与其他国家进行的实地研究得出的估计一致。因此,我们的案例研究加强了VaxEstim作为昂贵的替代品的有效性,OCV1有效性的耗时现场研究。的确,之前在南苏丹工作,孟加拉国,刚果民主共和国报告OCV1有效率约为40%至80%.这项工作强调了将爆发病例数据的NMR来源与计算技术相结合的价值,以及VaxEstim的实用性,在数据匮乏的疫情环境中,对疫苗有效性的廉价估计。
    In 2023, cholera affected approximately 1 million people and caused more than 5000 deaths globally, predominantly in low-income and conflict settings. In recent years, the number of new cholera outbreaks has grown rapidly. Further, ongoing cholera outbreaks have been exacerbated by conflict, climate change, and poor infrastructure, resulting in prolonged crises. As a result, the demand for treatment and intervention is quickly outpacing existing resource availability. Prior to improved water and sanitation systems, cholera, a disease primarily transmitted via contaminated water sources, also routinely ravaged high-income countries. Crumbling infrastructure and climate change are now putting new locations at risk - even in high-income countries. Thus, understanding the transmission and prevention of cholera is critical. Combating cholera requires multiple interventions, the two most common being behavioral education and water treatment. Two-dose oral cholera vaccination (OCV) is often used as a complement to these interventions. Due to limited supply, countries have recently switched to single-dose vaccines (OCV1). One challenge lies in understanding where to allocate OCV1 in a timely manner, especially in settings lacking well-resourced public health surveillance systems. As cholera occurs and propagates in such locations, timely, accurate, and openly accessible outbreak data are typically inaccessible for disease modeling and subsequent decision-making. In this study, we demonstrated the value of open-access data to rapidly estimate cholera transmission and vaccine effectiveness. Specifically, we obtained non-machine readable (NMR) epidemic curves for recent cholera outbreaks in two countries, Haiti and Cameroon, from figures published in situation and disease outbreak news reports. We used computational digitization techniques to derive weekly counts of cholera cases, resulting in nominal differences when compared against the reported cumulative case counts (i.e., a relative error rate of 5.67% in Haiti and 0.54% in Cameroon). Given these digitized time series, we leveraged EpiEstim-an open-source modeling platform-to derive rapid estimates of time-varying disease transmission via the effective reproduction number ( R t ). To compare OCV1 effectiveness in the two considered countries, we additionally used VaxEstim, a recent extension of EpiEstim that facilitates the estimation of vaccine effectiveness via the relation among three inputs: the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ), R t , and vaccine coverage. Here, with Haiti and Cameroon as case studies, we demonstrated the first implementation of VaxEstim in low-resource settings. Importantly, we are the first to use VaxEstim with digitized data rather than traditional epidemic surveillance data. In the initial phase of the outbreak, weekly rolling average estimates of R t were elevated in both countries: 2.60 in Haiti [95% credible interval: 2.42-2.79] and 1.90 in Cameroon [1.14-2.95]. These values are largely consistent with previous estimates of R 0 in Haiti, where average values have ranged from 1.06 to 3.72, and in Cameroon, where average values have ranged from 1.10 to 3.50. In both Haiti and Cameroon, this initial period of high transmission preceded a longer period during which R t oscillated around the critical threshold of 1. Our results derived from VaxEstim suggest that Haiti had higher OCV1 effectiveness than Cameroon (75.32% effective [54.00-86.39%] vs. 54.88% [18.94-84.90%]). These estimates of OCV1 effectiveness are generally aligned with those derived from field studies conducted in other countries. Thus, our case study reinforces the validity of VaxEstim as an alternative to costly, time-consuming field studies of OCV1 effectiveness. Indeed, prior work in South Sudan, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported OCV1 effectiveness ranging from approximately 40% to 80%. This work underscores the value of combining NMR sources of outbreak case data with computational techniques and the utility of VaxEstim for rapid, inexpensive estimation of vaccine effectiveness in data-poor outbreak settings.
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