城市洪水被认为是由气候等固有因素形成的自然驱动的灾难,形态学,和水文学,影响脆弱性和洪水暴露。虽然这些因素起着至关重要的作用,重要的心理社会复杂的司机被承认,尽管它们对预测和评估具有挑战性。本研究在特定的背景下深入研究了这些驱动因素,旨在得出超越的结论。它采取全面的方法,集成基于云的雷达洪水检测,洪水成因模式分析,以及基于交叉综合的社会调查的地质统计分析,应急分析,和结构方程建模。特别是,我们描述了摩洛哥沿海城市Tetouan的情况,在北非大多数城市的环境和社会经济环境中具有代表性。它揭示了社会心理的微妙相互作用,经济,和影响洪水暴露的领土动态。研究结果揭示了分水岭位置如何塑造独特的环境暴露,转向细微差别,情感,和居民的行为反应。性别和教育差异揭示了对洪水风险的不同看法和认识。心理社会错综复杂的事物走到了最前沿,描绘教育,收入,和意识是影响认知和情感反应的关键媒介。提升教育,收入增加,提高的意识与提高的感知和应对策略相关。研究结果表明,风险感知显著且不同地影响风险接受度,应对,通过一系列确定的影响应对策略的关键因素进行厌恶,洪水灾害关系中的中介因素,并强调了感知在塑造对风险的反应中的关键作用。此外,研究发现,较低的风险接受度会导致较高的应对和厌恶,后者积极影响应对,表明接受降低了避免风险的动机,并降低了采取应对策略以减少风险的意愿。这些结果对理解个人和集体社会行为具有重要意义,通知策略,以及减轻适用于更广泛背景的洪水风险。突出了单纯依靠结构工程进行风险管理的不足,引用空间限制,错误信息,和在先前风险记忆中的失误作为复合暴露挑战。这种认识促进了行动,倡导量身定制的宣传活动,教育举措,和能力建设计划,强调需要加强个人档案以增进社会理解,订婚,和韧性。我们期待深刻的见解,促进对城市洪水复杂性的更深入理解,并在更大范围内提供适应性策略。
Urban flooding is recognized as a nature-driven disaster shaped by inherent factors such as climate, morphology, and hydrology, affecting vulnerability and flood exposure. While these factors play a paramount role, significant psychosocial intricate drivers are acknowledged, though they are challenging for prediction and assessment. This study delves into these drivers in a specific context, aiming to draw conclusions that extend beyond. It undertakes a comprehensive approach, integrating cloud-based Radar flood detection, analysis of flood causation patterns, and geostatistical analysis of a social survey based on cross-synthesis, contingency analysis, and structural equation modeling. In particular, we characterize the case of the coastal city of Tetouan in Morocco, which is representative in its environmental and socioeconomic settings to most cities in North Africa. It unraveled the nuanced interplay of psychosocial, economic, and territorial dynamics influencing flood exposure. The findings reveal how watershed location molds unique environmental exposures, steering nuanced, emotional, and behavioral responses among residents. Gender and education differentials reveal diverse perceptions and awareness of flood risks. Psychosocial intricacies come to the forefront, portraying education, income, and awareness as crucial mediators influencing cognitive and affective responses. Elevated education, increased income, and heightened awareness correlate with heightened perception and coping strategies. Findings reveal that risk perception significantly and differently influences risk acceptance, coping, and aversion through an array of identified key factors influencing coping strategies, mediating elements in flood damage relationships, and underscoring the pivotal role of perception in shaping responses to risk. Moreover, it found that lower risk acceptance leads to higher coping and aversion, and the latter positively affects coping, indicating that acceptance reduces the motivation to avoid the risk and decreases the willingness to adopt coping strategies to reduce the exposure. The outcomes carry critical implications for comprehending individual and collective social behaviors, informing strategies, and mitigating flood risk that apply at a wider context. It accentuates the inadequacy of relying solely on structural engineering for risk management, citing spatial constraints, misinformation, and lapses in prior-risk memory as compounding exposure challenges. This recognition catalyzes action, advocating tailored awareness campaigns, educational initiatives, and capacity-building programs, spotlighting the need for heightened individual profiles to enhance social understanding, engagement, and resilience. We anticipate profound insights, fostering a richer comprehension of urban flooding complexities and informing adaptive strategies on a broader scale.