城市排水系统(UDS)可能会遇到故障,遇到不确定的未来条件。这些不确定性来自内部和外部威胁,如沉积,阻塞,和气候变化。在本文中,提出了一个新的基于弹性的框架,以评估在一些不同的未来情景下城市洪水管理策略的稳健性。通过考虑可靠性来评估洪水管理策略的稳健性值,弹性,和社会生态复原力标准。考虑到Biggs等人提出的建立弹性的七个原则,提出了社会生态弹性标准。(2012).利用证据推理(ER)方法和后悔理论来计算洪水管理策略的总体稳健性。在这个框架中,将非支配排序遗传算法III(NSGA-III)优化模型和雨水管理模型(SWMM)模拟模型链接并运行以量化标准。本文的新颖性在于提出了一个新的框架,以提高城市的可持续性和抵御洪水的能力,考虑到主要经济,社会,和水文因素。该方法为城市基础设施的重新设计和可持续运营提供了政策,以应对洪水。为了评估框架的适用性和效率,它适用于伊朗德黑兰都市区的东部排水集水区。结果表明,现有滞洪水库实时运行,以及实施五条新的救援隧道,建设费用为3710万美元,是研究区最稳健的非主导洪水管理策略。将所提出的框架的结果与传统框架的结果进行比较表明,它可以在相同的实现成本下将鲁棒性值提高约40%。
Urban drainage systems (UDSs) may experience failure encountering uncertain future conditions. These uncertainties arise from internal and external threats such as sedimentation, blockage, and climate change. In this paper, a new resilience-based framework is proposed to assess the robustness of urban flood management strategies under some distinct future scenarios. The robustness values of flood management strategies are evaluated by considering reliability, resiliency, and socio-ecological resilience criteria. The socio-ecologic resilience criteria are proposed considering the seven principles of building resilience proposed by Biggs et al. (2012). The evidential reasoning (ER) approach and the regret theory are utilized to calculate the total robustness of the flood management strategies. In this framework, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithms III (NSGA-III) optimization model and the storm water management model (SWMM) simulation model are linked and run to quantify the criteria. The novelty of this paper lies in presenting a new framework to increase the sustainability and resilience of cities against floods considering the deep uncertainties in the main economic, social, and hydrological factors. This methodology provides policies for redesigning and sustainable operation of urban infrastructures to deal with floods. To evaluate the applicability and efficiency of the framework, it is applied to the East drainage catchment of the Tehran metropolitan area in Iran. The results show that real-time operation of existing flood detention reservoirs, along with implementing five new relief tunnels with a construction cost of 37.1 million dollars, is the most robust non-dominated strategy for flood management in the study area. Comparing the results of the proposed framework with those of a traditional framework shows that it can increase the robustness value by about 40% with the same implementation cost.