主要不良心血管事件(MACE)是成人2型糖尿病发病和死亡的主要原因。目前,可用的MACE预测模型有重要的局限性,包括对可能无法例行获得的数据的依赖,狭隘地关注一级预防,有限的患者群体,和风险预测的长期视野。
■这项研究的目的是得出并内部验证基于索赔的2型糖尿病1年MACE风险预测模型。
■使用2型糖尿病成年人的医疗和药学索赔,MedicareAdvantage,和医疗保险收费服务计划在2014年至2021年之间,我们推导并内部验证了基于年度索赔的MACE估计器(ACME)模型,以预测MACE的风险(非致死性急性心肌梗死,非致命性中风,和全因死亡率)。Cox比例风险模型由30个协变量组成,包括患者年龄,性别,合并症,和药物。
■研究队列包括6,623,526名2型糖尿病成年人,平均年龄68.1±10.6岁,妇女占49.8%,73.0%的非西班牙裔白人。ACME的一致性指数为0.74(验证指数范围:0.739-0.741)。研究队列的预测1年风险范围为0.4%至99.9%,风险中位数为3.4%(IQR:2.3%-6.5%)。
■ACME源于大量的常规护理人群,依赖于常规可用的数据,并估计短期MACE风险。它可以在卫生系统和支付者层面支持人口风险分层,心血管疾病分散临床试验的参与者识别,和使用真实世界数据的风险分层观察研究。
UNASSIGNED: Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among adults with type 2 diabetes. Currently, available MACE prediction models have important limitations, including reliance on data that may not be routinely available, narrow focus on primary prevention, limited patient populations, and longtime horizons for risk prediction.
UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this study was to derive and internally validate a claims-based prediction model for 1-year risk of MACE in type 2 diabetes.
UNASSIGNED: Using medical and pharmacy claims for adults with type 2 diabetes enrolled in commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicare fee-for-service plans between 2014 and 2021, we derived and internally validated the annualized claims-based MACE estimator (ACME) model to predict the risk of MACE (nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and all-cause mortality). The Cox proportional hazards model was composed of 30 covariates, including patient age, sex, comorbidities, and medications.
UNASSIGNED: The study cohort comprised 6,623,526 adults with type 2 diabetes, mean age 68.1 ± 10.6 years, 49.8% women, and 73.0% Non-Hispanic White. ACME had a concordance index of 0.74 (validation index range: 0.739-0.741). The predicted 1-year risk of the study cohort ranged from 0.4% to 99.9%, with a median risk of 3.4% (IQR: 2.3%-6.5%).
UNASSIGNED: ACME was derived in a large usual care population, relies on routinely available data, and estimates short-term MACE risk. It can support population risk stratification at the health system and payer levels, participant identification for decentralized clinical trials of cardiovascular disease, and risk-stratified observational studies using real-world data.