Time-series analyses

时间序列分析
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在这项研究中,我们采用跨学科的方法,将农艺田间试验与土壤化学相结合,分子生物学技术,和统计数据来调查有机残留修正的影响,如酒糟(甘蔗乙醇生产的副产品),对土壤微生物组和温室气体(GHG)生产的影响。这项研究调查了不同干扰的影响,包括有机残留物单独施用或与无机氮肥结合施用。这些方法评估了土壤微生物组动态(组成和功能),温室气体排放,和植物生产力。现场实验设置的详细步骤,土壤取样,土壤化学分析,细菌和真菌群落多样性的测定,定量与硝化和反硝化途径相关的基因,气体通量(N2O,CH4和CO2),并提供了植物生产力的测定。这些方法的结果在我们的出版物中有详细的介绍(Lourenço等人。,2018a;洛伦索等人。,2018b;洛伦索等人。,2019年;洛伦索等人。,2020)。此外,概述了用于分析大型数据集的统计方法和脚本。目的是通过解决大规模现场实验中的共同挑战来帮助研究人员,提供切实可行的建议,以避免常见的陷阱,并提出潜在的分析,从而鼓励不同研究小组之间的合作。•跨学科方法和科学问题允许探索更广泛的相互联系的环境问题。•所提出的方法可以作为评估土壤改良剂对土壤微生物组的影响的模型和协议,温室气体排放,和植物生产力,促进更可持续的管理实践。•时间序列数据可以提供对特定生态系统的详细见解,特别是关于土壤微生物群(分类学和功能)。
    In this study, we adopt an interdisciplinary approach, integrating agronomic field experiments with soil chemistry, molecular biology techniques, and statistics to investigate the impact of organic residue amendments, such as vinasse (a by-product of sugarcane ethanol production), on soil microbiome and greenhouse gas (GHG) production. The research investigates the effects of distinct disturbances, including organic residue application alone or combined with inorganic N fertilizer on the environment. The methods assess soil microbiome dynamics (composition and function), GHG emissions, and plant productivity. Detailed steps for field experimental setup, soil sampling, soil chemical analyses, determination of bacterial and fungal community diversity, quantification of genes related to nitrification and denitrification pathways, measurement and analysis of gas fluxes (N2O, CH4, and CO2), and determination of plant productivity are provided. The outcomes of the methods are detailed in our publications (Lourenço et al., 2018a; Lourenço et al., 2018b; Lourenço et al., 2019; Lourenço et al., 2020). Additionally, the statistical methods and scripts used for analyzing large datasets are outlined. The aim is to assist researchers by addressing common challenges in large-scale field experiments, offering practical recommendations to avoid common pitfalls, and proposing potential analyses, thereby encouraging collaboration among diverse research groups.•Interdisciplinary methods and scientific questions allow for exploring broader interconnected environmental problems.•The proposed method can serve as a model and protocol for evaluating the impact of soil amendments on soil microbiome, GHG emissions, and plant productivity, promoting more sustainable management practices.•Time-series data can offer detailed insights into specific ecosystems, particularly concerning soil microbiota (taxonomy and functions).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自杀意念(SI)是一个重要而持久的心理健康问题,三分之一的人在两年后仍在经历SI。迄今为止,大多数SI的生态瞬时评估(EMA)研究都对其连续一到四周的日常过程进行了评估,发现随着时间的推移,平均SI严重程度没有一致的趋势。
    当前的概念验证研究评估了SI在3到6个月的时间范围内的每日波动,以探索是否可以检测到SI严重程度的个体趋势,如果是这样,如果变化的轨迹是渐进的或突然的。次要目的是探索是否可以在早期检测到SI严重程度的变化。
    五名患有抑郁症和SI的成年门诊患者除了接受3至6个月的常规治疗外,还在智能手机上使用了EMA应用程序,其中SI每天评估3次。为了检测每个患者的SI趋势,测试了三个模型:一个空模型,渐变模式和突变模式。为了在达到新的平台之前检测SI的变化,使用了预警信号和指数加权移动平均控制图。
    在每位患者中,平均SI严重程度具有突然和/或逐渐变化的独特轨迹.此外,在一些患者中,可以在早期检测到突然和逐渐SI的增加。
    该研究首次显示了3至6个月期间SI严重程度的独特个体趋势。尽管需要在更大的样本中复制来测试结果的推广程度,提供了第一个概念证明,可以使用时间序列数据的动态在早期阶段检测到SI严重程度的突然和逐渐变化。
    UNASSIGNED: Suicidal ideation (SI) is a significant and long-lasting mental health problem, with a third of individuals still experiencing SI after two years. To date, most Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) studies of SI have assessed its day-to-day course over one to four consecutive weeks and found no consistent trends in average SI severity over time.
    UNASSIGNED: The current proof of concept study assessed daily fluctuations of SI over a time span of 3 to 6 months to explore whether individual trends in SI severity could be detected, and if so, if the trajectory of changes were gradual or sudden. The secondary aim was to explore whether changes in SI severity could be detected at an early stage.
    UNASSIGNED: Five adult outpatients with depression and SI used an EMA app on their smartphone in addition to their regular treatment for 3 to 6 months, where SI was assessed 3 times a day. To detect trends in SI for each patient, three models were tested: a null model, a gradual change model and a sudden change model. To detect changes in SI before a new plateau was reached, Early Warning Signals and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average control charts were used.
    UNASSIGNED: In each patient, average SI severity had a unique trajectory of sudden and/or gradual changes. Additionally, in some patients, increases in both sudden and gradual SI could be detected at an early stage.
    UNASSIGNED: The study presents a first indication of unique individual trends in SI severity over a 3 to 6 months period. Though replication in a larger sample is needed to test how well results generalize, a first proof-of-concept is provided that both sudden and gradual changes in SI severity may be detectable at an early stage using the dynamics of time-series data.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国大陆人狂犬病流行病学特征,对2005-2020年我国狂犬病防制效果进行分析评价。在中国大陆31个省的321个城市的2097个县中,共记录了24,319例人类狂犬病病例。只有202例,位于143个县,记录在2020年,而2007年992个县的病例为3305例;然而,即使在2020年,湖南省的狂犬病仍然相对严重。高峰期发生在7月至11月;8月通常是病例最多的月份。贵州,湖南,广东,和广西各省,在中部和南部地区,占2005-2020年病例的50.0%。病例几乎完全发生在农村地区,占96.7%,城市地区为3.3%。从南方开始的矛盾的相对扩张,东方,位于西南部的中心,西北,北方,观察到东北地区的病例总体减少。一些地区目睹了完全消除。男女比例为2.33:1;在0-10岁(13.8%)和41-70岁(53.0%)年龄组中报告了所有病例的66.8%。农民(68.3%),其次是学生(12.2),散居儿童(6.5%)最常受累。我们的结果为提高狂犬病的预防和控制工作提供了客观信息。这将有助于中国和其他地方的政策制定者实现“到2030年人类死于狗介导的狂犬病”的全球目标。
    Epidemiological characteristics of human rabies in mainland China, 2005-2020 were analyzed to evaluate the effect of rabies control in China in recent years. A total of 24,319 human rabies cases were recorded in 2097 counties in 321 cities of 31 provinces in mainland China. Only 202 cases, located in 143 counties, were recorded in 2020, compared with 3305 cases in 992 counties in 2007; however, rabies was still relatively severe in Hunan Province even in 2020. Peak periods occurred in July-November; August was often the month with the most cases. Guizhou, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi Provinces, in the central and southern regions, accounted for 50.0% of the cases in 2005-2020. Cases occurred almost exclusively in rural areas with 96.7% versus 3.3% in urban areas. A paradoxical relative expansion from southern, eastern, and central towards southwestern, northwestern, northern, and northeastern regions was observed along with the overall reduction of cases. Some regions witnessed complete elimination. The male-to-female ratio was 2.33:1; 66.8% of all cases were reported in the 0-10 (13.8%) and 41-70 (53.0%) age groups. Farmers (68.3%), followed by students (12.2), and diaspora children (6.5%) were most frequently involved. Our results provide objective information for the improvement of rabies prevention and control efforts. This will aid policymakers in China and elsewhere achieve the \"Zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030\" global goal.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    较高的室外温度可能与抗生素抗性细菌的增加有关。我们调查了局部室外空气温度与产超广谱β-内酰胺酶(ESBL)的肠杆菌科(ESBL-PE)的发生率之间的关联,以纠正已知的抗生素耐药性驱动因素。
    我们进行了时间序列回归研究,使用前瞻性收集的每周监测数据,对从巴塞尔大学医院的住院和门诊患者中分离出的所有ESBL-PE,瑞士的一个三级护理中心,01/2008-12/2017之间。在此期间,在我们机构旁边的巴塞尔大学气象研究所每小时测量温度。使用泊松回归模型和不同滞后项的时间序列方法对延迟暴露效应进行了评估,平均和最高周温度以及恢复的ESBL-PE数量。
    超过10年,ESBL-PE的恢复增加(年发病率比[IRR]1.14,95CI1.13-1.16),而平均每周温度测量值保持稳定。在多变量分析中,升高的温度与三至四周后ESBL-PE的较高回收率相关,纠正潜在的混杂因素,比如入学人数,长期护理和ICU入院的比例,年龄,Charlson合并症指数和抗微生物剂的消耗量(每10°C的IRRs范围为1.14至1.22,95CI=1.07-1.33)。当分析温度与所有回收的肠杆菌科细菌的广谱头孢菌素抗性比例之间的相关性时,这些趋势仍然存在。
    较高的室外温度可能与ESBL-PE发生率的增加有关,独立于重要的混杂因素,例如抗菌药物的消费,因此应该考虑未来的耐药轨迹。
    Higher outdoor temperature may be related to an increase in antibiotic resistant bacteria. We investigated the association between local outdoor air temperature and the incidence of extended-spectrum betalactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) correcting for known drivers of antibiotic resistance.
    We performed a time-series regression study using prospectively collected weekly surveillance data on all ESBL-PE isolated from in- and outpatients of the University Hospital Basel, a tertiary care center in Switzerland, between 01/2008-12/2017. Temperature was measured hourly at the meteorological institute of the University Basel next to our institution over this time period. A time-series approach using a Poisson regression model and different lag terms for delayed exposure effects was performed to assess associations between minimal, mean and maximal weekly temperature and the number of ESBL-PE recovered.
    Over 10 years, recovery of ESBL-PE increased (annual incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.14, 95%CI 1.13-1.16), while mean weekly temperature measures remained stable. In multivariable analyses, increasing temperature was associated with higher recovery rates of ESBL-PE after three to four weeks, correcting for potential confounders, such as the number of admissions, proportion of long-term nursing facility- and ICU-admissions, age, Charlson comorbidity index and consumption of antimicrobials (IRRs per 10 °C ranging from 1.14 to 1.22, 95%CIs 1.07-1.33). These trends remained when analyzing correlations between temperature with the proportion of extended spectrum cephalosporin resistance of all recovered Enterobacteriaceae.
    Higher outdoor temperature may be associated with an increase of ESBL-PE-incidence, independent of important confounders, such as antimicrobial consumption and thus should be considered for future resistance-trajectories.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    登革热遍布中国大陆,除了西藏自治区。在2005-2020年期间,记录了12701例输入病例和81653例土著病例。本地病例主要集中在广东省(74.0%)和云南省(13.7%)。本地登革热是中国大陆的季节性疾病,主要表现在夏季和秋季。土著登革热病例往往每5年达到高峰,并在2005-2020年期间显示出大幅增加。在学习期间,广东省七个县的本地登革热发生十多次。土著登革热已经从低纬度蔓延到高纬度;也就是说,从西南部,南方,以及东南部到中部和北部地区,从边境港口和城市到农村地区。埃及伊蚊在云南省已经很普遍,但在广西已经减少,广东,和海南省近年来。白纹伊蚊分布于中国大陆各地,跨越25个省市。保持有效的公共卫生预防和控制,监测登革热的发生很重要,提供登革热分类指导,并确保伊蚊的可持续病媒管理。
    Dengue fever occurs throughout mainland China, except in the Tibet Autonomous Region. During 2005-2020, there were 12,701 imported cases and 81,653 indigenous cases recorded. The indigenous cases were mainly clustered in Guangdong (74.0%) and Yunnan provinces (13.7%). Indigenous dengue fever is a seasonal illness in mainland China, manifesting predominantly in summer and autumn. Indigenous dengue fever cases tend to peak every 5years and have shown a substantial increase during the period 2005-2020. During the study period, indigenous dengue fever occurred more than ten times in each of the seven counties of Guangdong Province. Indigenous dengue fever has spread from low to high latitudes; that is, from the southwestern, southern, and southeastern areas to the central and northern regions, and from border ports and cities to rural areas. Aedes aegypti has become widespread in Yunnan Province but has diminished in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces in recent years. Aedes albopictus is distributed throughout mainland China, spanning 25 provinces and municipalities. To maintain effective public health prevention and control, it is important to monitor dengue occurrence, provide dengue classification guidance, and ensure sustainable vector management of Aedes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED: In complex systems early warning signals such as rising autocorrelation, variance and network connectivity are hypothesized to anticipate relevant shifts in a system. For direct evidence hereof in depression, designs are needed in which early warning signals and symptom transitions are prospectively assessed within an individual. Therefore, this study aimed to detect personalized early warning signals preceding the occurrence of a major symptom transition.
    UNASSIGNED: Six single-subject time-series studies were conducted, collecting frequent observations of momentary affective states during a time-period when participants were at increased risk of a symptom transition. Momentary affect states were reported three times a day over three to six months (95-183 days). Depressive symptoms were measured weekly using the Symptom CheckList-90. Presence of sudden symptom transitions was assessed using change point analysis. Early warning signals were analysed using moving window techniques.
    UNASSIGNED: As change point analysis revealed a significant and sudden symptom transition in one participant in the studied period, early warning signals were examined in this person. Autocorrelation (r=0·51; p<2.2e-16), and variance (r=0·53; p<2.2e-16) in \'feeling down\', and network connectivity (r=0·42; p<2.2e-16) significantly increased a month before this transition occurred. These early warnings also preceded the rise in absolute levels of \'feeling down\' and the participant\'s personal indication of risk for transition.
    UNASSIGNED: This study replicated the findings of a previous study and confirmed the presence of rising early warning signals a month before the symptom transition occurred. Results show the potential of early warning signals to improve personalized risk assessment in the field of psychiatry.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    蜱传脑炎(TBE)是芬兰公共卫生重要性的地方性感染。我们调查了生态因素对2007-2017年TBE趋势的影响。我们从国家传染病登记处获得了国内TBE病例数据,来自美国国家海洋和大气管理局的天气数据,以及芬兰自然资源研究所每年在游戏管理区被猎人杀死的哺乳动物的数据。我们对天气和动物参数进行了时间滞后的混合效应时间序列分析,在游戏管理区域添加随机效果。在2007-2017年期间,报告了395/460(86%)例已知的暴露地点和采样日期的国内TBE病例。总的来说,TBE发病率每年增加15%。调整其他动物的密度和最低温度后,我们发现TBE发病率与白尾鹿密度呈正相关。在评估TBE风险和设计干预措施时,应考虑宿主动物密度的变化。
    Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is an endemic infection of public health importance in Finland. We investigated the effect of ecologic factors on 2007-2017 TBE trends. We obtained domestic TBE case data from the National Infectious Diseases Register, weather data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and data from the Natural Resources Institute in Finland on mammals killed by hunters yearly in game management areas. We performed a mixed-effects time-series analysis with time lags on weather and animal parameters, adding a random effect to game management areas. During 2007-2017, a total of 395/460 (86%) domestic TBE cases were reported with known place of exposure and date of sampling. Overall, TBE incidence increased yearly by 15%. After adjusting for the density of other animals and minimum temperatures, we found thatTBE incidence was positively associated with white-tailed deer density. Variation in host animal density should be considered when assessing TBE risks and designing interventions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    暂无摘要。
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项关于荷兰日报质量报纸(NRCHandelsblad;N=14,363)中高度可见的公司类型的新闻报道的研究,在经济危机期间(2007-2013年),这表明,对银行(以及在较小程度上对汽车和零部件行业)的关注对媒体议程多样性产生了结构性负面影响。大多数其他突出的公司类型对多样性有显著的积极影响。这些结果表明,银行吸引注意力是以牺牲更多的多样性为代价的,危机期间的多样化报道。通过考虑更广泛的媒体议程的特征,我们的发现扩展了与组织新闻相关的议程建设动态的知识。我们根据媒体报道重要企业的原因和后果来讨论我们的发现。
    This study on news coverage of highly visible company types in a Dutch daily quality newspaper (NRC Handelsblad; N = 14,363), during the economic crisis (2007-2013), shows that attention to banks (and to a lesser extent also to the automobile and components industry) had a structural negative influence on media agenda diversity. The majority of the other salient company types had a significant positive impact on diversity. These results suggest that banks attracted attention at the expense of more varied, diverse coverage during the crisis. Our findings extend knowledge of agenda-building dynamics in relation to organizational news by considering characteristics of the broader media agenda. We discuss our findings in light of causes and consequences of media coverage of salient businesses.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于缺乏大规模的PM2.5监测数据,很少有研究评估亚洲国家急性暴露于PM2.5对健康的影响和每日死亡率。我们进行了一项时间序列研究,以检查宁波四种常见空气污染物(PM2.5,PM10,NO2和SO2)的短期暴露与每日死亡率的关系。浙江,中国。我们使用广义成瘾模型(GAM)来估计这四种空气污染物与每日死亡率的关联的相对风险(RR)和95%置信区间(CI)。该研究包括2014年至2015年2年研究期间的9365人。SO2与NAD风险显著相关,RD,和CD死亡率,RR为1.034(95%CI1.004,1.064),1.067(95%CI1.010,1.127),和1.049(95%CI1.001,1.098),分别。在温暖季节,PM2.5和PM10与NAD死亡率的死亡风险显着相关。PM10(RR=1.056,95%CI1.004,1.111)和CD死亡风险也观察到类似的关联。该研究提供了进一步的证据,表明短期暴露于PM2.5,PM10,NO2和SO2与每日死亡风险增加有关。
    Few studies were conducted to evaluate health effects of acute exposure to PM2.5 and daily mortality in Asian countries due to lack of large-scale PM2.5 monitoring data. We conducted a time-series study to examine the associations of short-term exposure to four common air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2) and daily mortality in Ningbo, Zhejiang, China. We used generalized addictive model (GAM) to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of these four air pollutants with daily mortality. The study included 9365 people in the 2-year study period from 2014 to 2015. SO2 were significantly associated with risk of NAD, RD, and CD mortality with RRs of 1.034 (95% CI 1.004, 1.064), 1.067 (95% CI 1.010, 1.127), and 1.049 (95% CI 1.001, 1.098), respectively.PM2.5 and PM10 were significantly associated with risk of death from NAD mortality in warm season. Similar associations were observed for PM10 (RR = 1.056, 95% CI 1.004, 1.111) and risk of CD mortality. The study provides further evidence that short-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2 are associated with increased risk of daily mortality.
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