背景:温度变异性(TV)与死亡风险增加有关。然而,目前尚不清楚日间或日间电视是否有不同的影响。
目的:我们旨在评估日间电视和日间电视与所有原因的关联,心血管,和呼吸道死亡率。
方法:我们收集了总计数据,心血管,1972年至2020年,来自47个国家或地区的758个地点的呼吸系统死亡率和气象学。我们将日间电视定义为滞后间隔内的每日平均温度的标准偏差(SD),和日内电视作为每天最低和最高温度的平均SD。在第一阶段,在每个位置的准泊松时间序列模型中同时对日间和日间电视进行建模。在第二阶段,多水平分析用于汇总特定地点的估计值.
结果:总体而言,由于四分位距[IQR]每一次增加导致的死亡风险,日内电视高于日间电视.全因死亡率的风险增加了0.59%(95%置信区间[CI]:0.53,0.65),心血管死亡率为0.64%(95%CI:0.56,0.73),和0.65%(95%CI:0.49,0.80)呼吸死亡率每IQR增加一天内TV0-7(0.9°C)。日间TV0-7(1.6°C)的IQR增加与全因死亡率增加0.22%(95%CI:0.18,0.26)相关,心血管死亡率增加0.44%(95%CI:0.37,0.50),呼吸死亡率增加0.31%(95%CI:0.21,0.41)。日内TV0-7和日间TV0-7的全因死亡比例分别为1.45%和0.35%,分别。死亡风险因滞后间隔而异,气候区,季节,气候类型。
结论:我们的结果表明,日间电视可以解释与电视相关的死亡风险的主要部分,并建议在更多国家提出综合评估,以帮助保护人类健康。
BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects.
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.
METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates.
RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.