Temperature variability

温度变异性
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于需要持续监测和了解热环境及其社会经济影响,这项研究使用遥感数据来分析LCZ的热舒适度变化,包括南非夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的eThekwini市的农村到城市梯度。使用世界城市数据库和访问门户工具(WUDAPT)的方法,使用多时相和多光谱Landsat8和Landsat9数据绘制了LCZ,而热数据用于检索地表温度(LSTs)。在2022年3月实地调查期间获得的知识和收集的数据以及现有地图的指导下,从GoogleEarth将用于LCZs训练分类和准确性评估的数据数字化。使用SAGAGIS软件中的随机森林分类器来映射LCZ,同时使用基于波段10的单通道算法来计算不同场景的LST。LST进行了调整,并进一步用于根据通用热舒适指数(UTCI)类别得出热舒适,作为在凉爽和炎热季节的极低和极高温时段的室外热舒适指标,分别。LCZ的作图精度较高(总体精度为90.1%,κ为0.88),而所有LCZ对的类间可分性较高(>1.5)。建成的LCZ在该市的东部地区占主导地位,标志着海洋对该地区发展的影响。平均LST在茂密的森林中最酷,在凉爽和炎热的季节开放低层和水域LCZ,分别。紧凑型高层LCZ在炎热(36°C)和凉爽(23°C)季节都是最温暖的。由于海沙的高含水量,在两个季节中都是最凉爽的地区,归因于他们的高地下水位和靠近海洋。在凉爽的季节没有热应力,而大多数地区在炎热季节记录了中度到强烈的热应激。在炎热的季节,密集的LCZ中的某些地区记录了非常强的热应力。研究结果表明,政策和策略应在炎热季节增强强热应激地区的热缓解能力。市政当局和公民必须共同努力,制定战略,以最大程度地减少极端温度和相关的社会经济压力。城市发展政策,计划和策略应考虑对热环境的影响以及保护具有高热缓解价值的LCZ的价值,例如茂密的森林和扩大具有低热吸收水平的已建成的LCZ,例如开放式低层。这项研究主要基于遥感温度,并使用一些地面数据来验证结果,这可能会限制评估。总的来说,该研究为实现全球可持续和气候智能型发展目标提供了见解。
    Due to the need to continuously monitor and understand the thermal environment and its socioeconomic implications, this study used remotely sensed data to analyze thermal comfort variation in LCZs, including along the rural to urban gradient of the eThekwini Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. LCZs were mapped using multi-temporal and multi-spectral Landsat 8 and Landsat 9 data using the approach by World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT), while thermal data were used to retrieve land surface temperatures (LSTs). Data for training classification of LCZs and accuracy assessment were digitized from GoogleEarth guided by knowledge gained and data collected during a field survey in March 2022 as well as pre-existing maps. LCZs were mapped using the random forest classifier in SAGA GIS software while a single channel algorithm based on band 10 was used to compute LST for different scenes. The LSTs were adjusted and further used to derive thermal comfort based on the Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) categories as an indicator for outdoor thermal comfort on the extremely low- and extremely high-temperature periods in the cool and hot seasons, respectively. LCZs were mapped with high accuracy (overall accuracy of 90.1% and kappa of 0.88) while inter-class separability was high (>1.5) for all LCZ pairs. Built-up LCZs dominate the eastern parts of the municipality, signifying the influence of the sea on development within the area. Average LST was coolest in the dense forest, open low-rise and water LCZs in the cool and hot seasons, respectively. The compact high-rise LCZ was the warmest in both the hot (36 °C) and the cool (23 °C) seasons. The sea sands were among coolest regions in both seasons due to their high water content, attributed to their high water table and close proximity to the ocean. There was no thermal stress during the cool season, while most areas recorded moderate to strong heat stress in the hot season. Some areas in the densely built-up LCZs recorded very strong heat stress in the hot season. The findings suggest that policies and strategies should enhance heat mitigation capacities in strong-heat-stress areas during the hot season. Municipal authorities and citizens must work together to build strategies to minimize temperature extremes and associated socioeconomic pressures. Urban development policies, plans and strategies should consider implications on the thermal environment as well as the value of conservation of LCZs with high-heat mitigation value such as dense forests and expansion of built-up LCZs with low-heat absorption levels such as open low-rise. The study was based mainly on remotely sensed temperatures with some ground data used to validate results, which may limit the assessment. Overall, the study provides insights towards achievement of global sustainable and climate-smart development targets.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:新的证据支持脑功能障碍可能归因于环境因素。这项研究旨在检查环境温度和温度变异性(TV)与儿童癫痫发作发生率的关系。尚未探索。
    方法:收集上海市因癫痫发作而门诊就诊的2718次数据,中国,从2018年到2023年。使用时空模型估计儿童居住地址的环境温度暴露。使用分布式滞后非线性模型(DLNM)进行时间分层病例交叉设计,以评估癫痫发作发生率与疾病发作日期前21天的每日环境温度平均值之间的关联。对于给定的案例日期,我们选择了在同一个月内一周中的同一天的所有日期作为对照日期。我们计算了日内和日间电视的综合指数,这是每日最低和最高温度的标准偏差,分别,案件日期前7天以上。然后,我们评估了电视和癫痫发作发生率之间的关联。按年龄进行分层分析(73.51%<5岁,26.49%≥5岁),性别(41.83%为女性),发烧(69.72%),并诊断为癫痫(27.63%)。
    结果:我们观察到倒J形温度响应曲线。较低的温度比较高的温度具有显著且延长的影响。使用20°C(效果最小)作为参考,在第5百分位数(3°C)和第95百分位数(29°C)开始前0-21天的累积比值比(OR)为3.17(95%CI:1.77,5.68)和1.54(95%CI:0.97,2.44),分别。此外,TV每升高1°C,OR为1.08(95%CI:1.01,1.15).年龄较大的儿童和因发烧而癫痫发作的儿童在较低和较高的环境温度下都表现出更高的癫痫发作风险。
    结论:低温和高温都可能导致与小儿癫痫相关的发病率。较低的温度,然而,比更高的温度在癫痫发作前产生更长的作用时间。在前7天,癫痫发作的风险增加与温度变异性显着相关。
    OBJECTIVE: Emerging evidence supports that brain dysfunction may be attributable to environmental factors. This study aims to examine associations of ambient temperature and temperature variability (TV) with seizure incidence in children, which has not been explored.
    METHODS: Data on 2718 outpatient visits due to seizure were collected in Shanghai, China, from 2018 to 2023. Exposure to ambient temperature was estimated at children\'s residential addresses using spatial-temporal models. A time-stratified case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was conducted to assess the association between seizure incidence and daily average of ambient temperature over a period of 21 days prior to a case date of disease onset. For a given case date, we selected all dates falling on the same day of the week within the same month as control dates. We calculated a composite index of intra-day and inter-day TV, which was the standard deviation of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively, over 7 days preceding a case date. We then assessed the association between TV and seizure incidence. Stratified analyses were conducted by age (73.51% < 5 years old and 26.49 % ≥ 5 years old), sex (41.83% female), presence of fever (69.72%), and diagnosis of epilepsy (27.63%).
    RESULTS: We observed inversed J-shaped temperature-response curves. Lower temperatures had a significant and prolonged effect than higher temperatures. Using 20 °C (with the minimum effect) as the reference, the cumulative odds ratios (ORs) for over 0-21 days preceding the onset at the 5th percentile of the temperature (3 °C) and at the 95th percentile (29 °C) were 3.17 (95% CI: 1.77, 5.68) and 1.54 (95% CI: 0.97, 2.44), respectively. In addition, per 1 °C increases in TV0-7 was associated with OR of 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.15). Older children and those experiencing seizure with fever exhibited a higher risk of seizure onset at both lower and higher ambient temperatures.
    CONCLUSIONS: Both low and high temperatures can contribute to the morbidity related to pediatric seizure. Lower temperatures, however, exerted a longer period of effect prior to seizure onset than higher temperatures. An increased risk for incident seizure was significantly associated with temperature variability during preceding 7 days.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在过去的几十年中,记录了平均海面温度(SST),并且海洋热浪已被确定为对海洋生态系统造成严重影响的原因。但是对全球变暖下时间变化模式的作用的研究却很少。我们比较了两个SST时间序列的描述符,包括六种寒温带大型藻类在其后缘的灭绝(即局部灭绝)。我们分解了逐渐变暖的影响,极端事件和内在变异性(如季节性)。我们还将决定大型藻类范围变化的主要因素与其生命周期特征和耐热性联系起来。我们发现大型藻类的灭绝与秋季SST变暖的海岸延伸有关,温度季节性增加,随着时间的推移,偏斜度降低。不管是什么物种,持续存在的人口共享一个共同的环境领域,这与经历局部灭绝的人明显不同。然而,大型藻类物种以不同的方式对温度成分做出反应,表现出不同的韧性。需要考虑气候变化的多种热表现,以更好地了解形成栖息地的物种的局部灭绝。我们的研究为在分析沿海物种分布的同时纳入未使用的环境变异性措施提供了框架。
    Record mean sea surface temperatures (SST) during the past decades and marine heatwaves have been identified as responsible for severe impacts on marine ecosystems, but the role of changes in the patterns of temporal variability under global warming has been much less studied. We compare descriptors of two time series of SST, encompassing extirpations (i.e. local extinctions) of six cold-temperate macroalgae species at their trailing range edge. We decompose the effects of gradual warming, extreme events and intrinsic variability (e.g. seasonality). We also relate the main factors determining macroalgae range shifts with their life cycles characteristics and thermal tolerance. We found extirpations of macroalgae were related to stretches of coast where autumn SST underwent warming, increased temperature seasonality, and decreased skewness over time. Regardless of the species, the persisting populations shared a common environmental domain, which was clearly differentiated from those experiencing local extinction. However, macroalgae species responded to temperature components in different ways, showing dissimilar resilience. Consideration of multiple thermal manifestations of climate change is needed to better understand local extinctions of habitat-forming species. Our study provides a framework for the incorporation of unused measures of environmental variability while analyzing the distributions of coastal species.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    植被通过蒸发等生物物理机制调节小气候稳定性,蒸腾作用和阴影。因此,以树木为主的栖息地的热条件通常与标准化的自由空气温度测量有很大不同。森林缓冲温度的能力使它们成为无法忍受气候变化所建立的日益具有挑战性的热条件的树种的潜在庇护所。尽管已经确定了许多影响植被覆盖下的热条件的因素,三维植被结构在调节林下小气候中的作用仍未得到研究。遥感技术的最新进展,例如地面激光扫描,使科学家能够高精度地捕获植被的三维结构异质性。这里,我们研究了从体素激光扫描点云参数化的植被结构之间的关系,空气和土壤温度范围,以及肯尼亚东南部热带山区生态系统中17个地点的现场测量温度和网格自由空气温度估计值之间的偏移量。结构多样性通常会对林下温度产生冷却作用,但垂直多样性和分层解释了更多的变化在林下空气和土壤温度范围(30%-40%)比树冠覆盖(27%),植物面积指数(24%)和平均林高(23%)。我们还观察到分层的综合效应,树冠覆盖和海拔解释了林下空气温度范围变化的一半以上(53%)。分层的衰减效应在不同的海拔水平上是一致的。现场测量和自由空气估计之间的温度偏移主要由海拔控制,但是分层和结构多样性是最大和中值温度偏移的影响因素。此外,稳定的林下温度与白天最高温度的大幅偏移密切相关,这表明结构多样性主要通过冷却白天的最高温度来促进热稳定性。我们的发现揭示了垂直植被结构的热影响,在热带土地利用变化的背景下,建议旨在减轻土地转换的热影响的决策者应优先考虑通过保留不均匀年龄的树木和混合不同大小的植物物种来保持结构多样性的管理实践,例如,silvopastoral,或农林系统。
    Vegetation regulates microclimate stability through biophysical mechanisms such as evaporation, transpiration and shading. Therefore, thermal conditions in tree-dominated habitats will frequently differ significantly from standardized free-air temperature measurements. The ability of forests to buffer temperatures nominates them as potential sanctuaries for tree species intolerant to the increasingly challenging thermal conditions established by climate change. Although many factors influencing thermal conditions beneath the vegetation cover have been ascertained, the role of three-dimensional vegetation structure in regulating the understory microclimate remains understudied. Recent advances in remote sensing technologies, such as terrestrial laser scanning, have allowed scientists to capture the three-dimensional structural heterogeneity of vegetation with a high level of accuracy. Here, we examined the relationships between vegetation structure parametrized from voxelized laser scanning point clouds, air and soil temperature ranges, as well as offsets between field-measured temperatures and gridded free-air temperature estimates in 17 sites in a tropical mountain ecosystem in Southeast Kenya. Structural diversity generally exerted a cooling effect on understory temperatures, but vertical diversity and stratification explained more variation in the understory air and soil temperature ranges (30%-40%) than canopy cover (27%), plant area index (24%) and average stand height (23%). We also observed that the combined effects of stratification, canopy cover and elevation explained more than half of the variation (53%) in understory air temperature ranges. Stratification\'s attenuating effect was consistent across different levels of elevation. Temperature offsets between field measurements and free-air estimates were predominantly controlled by elevation, but stratification and structural diversity were influential predictors of maximum and median temperature offsets. Moreover, stable understory temperatures were strongly associated with a large offset in daytime maximum temperatures, suggesting that structural diversity primarily contributes to thermal stability by cooling daytime maximum temperatures. Our findings shed light on the thermal influence of vertical vegetation structure and, in the context of tropical land-use change, suggest that decision-makers aiming to mitigate the thermal impacts of land conversion should prioritize management practices that preserve structural diversity by retaining uneven-aged trees and mixing plant species of varying sizes, e.g., silvopastoral, or agroforestry systems.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    鸟鸣是择偶和繁殖的重要特征。Song可能会传达与伴侣质量有关的信息,通过歌曲的复杂性,结构或更精细的音节特征变化。在斑马雀中已经表明,这些特征可以受到各种因素的影响,包括动机,激素水平或极端温度。然而,尽管有关斑马雀歌的文献很多,一些因素被忽视了。在本文中,我们在两种繁殖环境(配对前后)和两种环境温度条件(稳定和可变)下记录了雄性斑马雀,以了解这些因素如何影响歌曲的产生。我们发现两种繁殖环境之间存在很大差异:与配对前的歌曲相比,配对的男性歌曲率较低,音节一致性,频率和熵,而令人惊讶的是,它们音节的幅度增加了。温度变化对这些差异的程度有影响,但并不直接影响我们测量的歌曲参数。我们的结果首次描述了繁殖状态和温度变化如何影响斑马雀的鸣叫,并为该模型物种的声学交流提供了一些新的见解。
    Bird song is a crucial feature for mate choice and reproduction. Song can potentially communicate information related to the quality of the mate, through song complexity, structure or finer changes in syllable characteristics. It has been shown in zebra finches that those characteristics can be affected by various factors including motivation, hormone levels or extreme temperature. However, although the literature on zebra finch song is substantial, some factors have been neglected. In this paper, we recorded male zebra finches in two breeding contexts (before and after pairing) and in two ambient temperature conditions (stable and variable) to see how those factors could influence song production. We found strong differences between the two breeding contexts: compared to their song before pairing, males that were paired had lower song rate, syllable consistency, frequency and entropy, while surprisingly the amplitude of their syllables increased. Temperature variability had an impact on the extent of these differences, but did not directly affect the song parameters that we measured. Our results describe for the first time how breeding status and temperature variability can affect zebra finch song, and give some new insights into the subtleties of the acoustic communication of this model species.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:温度变异性(TV)与死亡风险增加有关。然而,目前尚不清楚日间或日间电视是否有不同的影响。
    目的:我们旨在评估日间电视和日间电视与所有原因的关联,心血管,和呼吸道死亡率。
    方法:我们收集了总计数据,心血管,1972年至2020年,来自47个国家或地区的758个地点的呼吸系统死亡率和气象学。我们将日间电视定义为滞后间隔内的每日平均温度的标准偏差(SD),和日内电视作为每天最低和最高温度的平均SD。在第一阶段,在每个位置的准泊松时间序列模型中同时对日间和日间电视进行建模。在第二阶段,多水平分析用于汇总特定地点的估计值.
    结果:总体而言,由于四分位距[IQR]每一次增加导致的死亡风险,日内电视高于日间电视.全因死亡率的风险增加了0.59%(95%置信区间[CI]:0.53,0.65),心血管死亡率为0.64%(95%CI:0.56,0.73),和0.65%(95%CI:0.49,0.80)呼吸死亡率每IQR增加一天内TV0-7(0.9°C)。日间TV0-7(1.6°C)的IQR增加与全因死亡率增加0.22%(95%CI:0.18,0.26)相关,心血管死亡率增加0.44%(95%CI:0.37,0.50),呼吸死亡率增加0.31%(95%CI:0.21,0.41)。日内TV0-7和日间TV0-7的全因死亡比例分别为1.45%和0.35%,分别。死亡风险因滞后间隔而异,气候区,季节,气候类型。
    结论:我们的结果表明,日间电视可以解释与电视相关的死亡风险的主要部分,并建议在更多国家提出综合评估,以帮助保护人类健康。
    BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects.
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.
    METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates.
    RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候变化涉及多个时间尺度上平均温度的升高和温度变异性的变化,但研究很少考虑这些时间尺度。气候变异性假设(CVH)为探索跨气候带的年尺度热变异性的潜在影响提供了一个概念框架。CVH预测,由于温带地区的年变化较大,温带地区的外温比热带地区的外温耐受更宽的温度范围。然而,热态的各种其他方面(例如diel可变性),还假设生物体的大小和分类学身份会影响耐热性。的确,热带地区的高温被认为是限制生物体耐受宽范围温度的能力,这意味着高的年最高温度将与耐受狭窄的温度范围有关。我们测量了星翅目(may蝇)中淡水昆虫的热态和临界热限(CTmax和CTmin),沿澳大利亚东部温带和热带地区溪流的海拔梯度,Plecoptera(石蝇)和Trichoptera(caddisfly),并通过确定哪些变量与热宽度最相关(Tbr=CTmax-CTmin)来测试CVH。与CVH一致,Tbr随着年温度范围的增加而增加。Tbr也随着体型的增加而增加,并且Tbr在Plecoptera中通常比在Ephemeroptera或Trichoptera中更宽。我们还找到了一些相关假设的支持,气候极端假设(CEH),特别是预测热上限。我们没有发现任何证据表明,较高的年最高温度限制了个体耐受各种温度的能力。我们所记录的对CVH的支持表明,温带生物可能比热带生物能够耐受更宽的温度范围。迫切需要研究热态的其他方面,如diel温度循环和最低温度。
    Climate change involves increases in mean temperature and changes in temperature variability at multiple temporal scales but research rarely considers these temporal scales. The climate variability hypothesis (CVH) provides a conceptual framework for exploring the potential effects of annual scale thermal variability across climatic zones. The CVH predicts ectotherms in temperate regions tolerate a wider range of temperatures than those in tropical regions in response to greater annual variability in temperate regions. However, various other aspects of thermal regimes (e.g. diel variability), organisms\' size and taxonomic identity are also hypothesised to influence thermal tolerance. Indeed, high temperatures in the tropics have been proposed as constraining organisms\' ability to tolerate a wide range of temperatures, implying that high annual maximum temperatures would be associated with tolerating a narrow range of temperatures. We measured thermal regimes and critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) of freshwater insects in the orders Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies) along elevation gradients in streams in temperate and tropical regions of eastern Australia and tested the CVH by determining which variables were most correlated with thermal breadth (T br = CTmax - CTmin). Consistent with the CVH, T br tended to increase with increasing annual temperature range. T br also increased with body size and T br was generally wider in Plecoptera than in Ephemeroptera or Trichoptera. We also find some support for a related hypothesis, the climate extreme hypothesis (CEH), particularly for predicting upper thermal limits. We found no evidence that higher annual maximum temperature constrained individuals\' abilities to tolerate a wide range of temperatures. The support for the CVH we document suggests that temperate organisms may be able to tolerate wider ranges of temperatures than tropical organisms. There is an urgent need to investigate other aspects of thermal regimes, such as diel temperature cycling and minimum temperature.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:我们旨在评估短期每日温度变异性(DTV)对血压正常参与者的血压(BP)的影响,高血压前期,和高血压,分别,探索不同气候带和季节的影响。
    方法:涵盖亚热带的代表性人口样本(n=397,173),温带大陆,温带季风区是从中国高血压调查中获得的。DTV计算为暴露日期间每日最低和最高温度的标准偏差。线性混合效应回归模型用于估计DTV暴露与血压之间的关系。高血压前期,和高血压,分别,并按气候区和季节进行了进一步的分层分析。
    结果:调整混杂因素后,在亚热带地区的高血压参与者中,暴露0~6日时DTV(2.28°C)每四分位数间距(IQR)的增加与收缩压(SBP)(SBP)和脉压(PP)0.41mmHg(95%CI:0.09,0.72)的增加相关.同样,在温带大陆地区的高血压前期参与者中,DTV暴露与SBP增加0.31mmHg(95%CI:0.06,0.55)和PP增加0.59mmHg(95%CI:0.24,0.94)相关。此外,在温暖的季节,在高血压前期和高血压人群中,DTV与SBP呈正相关,在所有三个人群中都有PP。
    结论:在亚热带地区和温带大陆地区,短期DTV暴露与高血压和高血压前期参与者的SBP和PP升高相关。此外,在温暖季节有高血压前期和高血压的参与者中观察到DTV与SBP和PP呈正相关.应实施全面的健康教育和有效的干预策略,以减轻温度变化对BP的影响,特别是在高血压前期和高血压人群中。
    BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate the impacts of short-term daily temperature variability (DTV) on blood pressure (BP) among participants with normotension, prehypertension, and hypertension, respectively, and explore the effects in different climate zones and seasons.
    METHODS: A representative population sample (n = 397,173) covering the subtropical, temperate continental, and temperate monsoon zones was obtained from the China Hypertension Survey. DTV was calculated as the standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. The linear mixed effect regression model was used to estimate the associations between DTV exposure and BP among normotension, prehypertension, and hypertension, respectively, and further stratified analysis was performed by climate zones and seasons.
    RESULTS: After adjustment for confounders, per interquartile range (IQR) increase in DTV (2.28 °C) at 0-6 days of exposure was associated with an increase of 0.41 mmHg (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.07, 0.75) in systolic BP (SBP) and 0.41 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.09, 0.72) in pulse pressure (PP) among hypertensive participants in the subtropical zone. Similarly, DTV exposure was associated with an increase of 0.31 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.06, 0.55) in SBP and 0.59 mmHg (95 % CI: 0.24, 0.94) in PP among prehypertensive participants in the temperate continental zone. Additionally, during the warm season, DTV was positively associated with SBP among populations with prehypertension and hypertension, and with PP among all three populations.
    CONCLUSIONS: Short-term DTV exposure was associated with an increase in SBP and PP among hypertensive and prehypertensive participants in the subtropical zone and the temperate continental zone. In addition, positive associations of DTV with SBP and PP were observed among participants with prehypertension and hypertension in the warm season. Comprehensive health education and effective intervention strategies should be implemented to mitigate the effects of temperature variations on BP, particularly among prehypertensive and hypertensive populations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:近年来,气候的突变导致住院患者呈上升趋势。本研究旨在分析与呼吸系统疾病(RD)住院相关的温度变异性(TV),住院时间和住院费用。
    方法:采用广义线性模型和分布滞后非线性模型相结合的方法研究TV与RD住院的关系。
    方法:TV是通过测量当天和前7天的最高和最低温度的标准偏差来确定的。RD住院数据来自淮北市三大三甲医院,即,淮北市人民医院,淮北市中医院和淮北市妇幼保健院。首先,使用时间序列分解模型,住院的季节性和长期趋势,在这种温暖的温带半湿润季风气候下,探索了RD的住院时间和住院费用。第二,使用稳健模型分析TV和RD住院之间的关联,住院时间和住院费用。此外,这项研究按性别分层结果,年龄和季节。第三,使用归因分数(AF)和归因数(AN),住院治疗,对归因于电视的RD的住院时间和住院费用进行了量化。
    结果:总体而言,0.013%的住院归因于TV0-1(即当天和前1天的电视),对应220例,1603天的住院天数和1,308,000元的住院费用。女性比男性更容易看电视,风险随着暴露时间的延长而增加(最高风险出现在TV0-7[即当天和前7天的电视]暴露)。在0-5岁和≥65岁时观察到较高的AF和AN。此外,还发现,在凉爽的季节,电视与RD的联系更加紧密。在TV0-3至TV0-7暴露时,炎热季节与住院时间和住院费用呈正相关。
    结论:接触电视会增加住院风险,RD的住院时间更长,住院费用更高。研究结果表明,未来应更加关注不稳定的天气条件,以保护弱势群体的健康。
    OBJECTIVE: The abrupt change of climate has led to an increasing trend of hospitalised patients in recent years. This study aimed to analyse the temperature variability (TV) associated with respiratory disease (RD) hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses.
    METHODS: The generalized linear model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to investigate the association between TV and RD hospitalisations.
    METHODS: TV was determined by measuring the standard deviation of maximum and minimum temperatures for the current day and the previous 7 days. RD hospitalisations data were obtained from three major tertiary hospitals in Huaibei City, namely, the Huaibei People\'s Hospital, the Huaibei Hospital Of Traditional Chinese Medicine and the Huaibei Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital. First, using a time series decomposition model, the seasonality and long-term trend of hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses for RD were explored in this warm temperate sub-humid monsoon climate. Second, robust models were used to analyse the association between TV and RD hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses. In addition, this study stratified results by sex, age and season. Third, using the attributable fraction (AF) and attributable number (AN), hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses for RD attributed to TV were quantified.
    RESULTS: Overall, 0.013% of hospitalisations were attributed to TV0-1 (i.e. TV at the current day and previous 1 day), corresponding to 220 cases, 1603 days of hospital stays and 1,308,000 RMB of hospital expenses. Females were more susceptible to TV than males, and the risk increased with longer exposure (the highest risk was seen at TV0-7 [i.e. TV at the current day and previous 7 days] exposure). Higher AF and AN were observed at ages 0-5 years and ≥65 years. In addition, it was also found that TV was more strongly linked to RD in the cool season. The hot season was positively associated with hospital stays and hospital expenses at TV0-3 to TV0-7 exposure.
    CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to TV increased the risk of hospitalisations, longer hospital stays and higher hospital expenses for RD. The findings suggested that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in the future to protect the health of vulnerable populations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    珊瑚礁面临着不确定的未来,气候引起的干扰不断出现。因此,了解珊瑚礁如何在大规模漂白事件后恢复和重组,对于预测它们在快速变化的海洋中的反应和持久性非常重要。在以强烈的每日温度变化为特征的自然极端珊瑚礁上,珊瑚的耐热性可以在小的空间梯度显著变化,但它仍然知之甚少,这如何影响漂白弹性和恢复动态,尽管它们作为复原力热点和潜在避难所的重要性。在澳大利亚西北部的大潮金伯利地区,2016年全球大规模漂白事件对我们研究地点的潮间带和潮下珊瑚群落产生了强烈的栖息地特定影响:潮间带热变珊瑚漂白程度较低,并在六个月内恢复,而中度变潮下的珊瑚中有68%死亡。因此,我们在漂白事件发生3.5年后进行了底栖调查,以确定底栖覆盖和珊瑚群落组成的潜在变化。在潮下,我们记录了藻类覆盖率的大幅增加,活珊瑚覆盖率尚未完全恢复到漂白前的水平。此外,潮下珊瑚群落从具有竞争性生活史策略的分支Acropora珊瑚为主转变为机会主义,杂草的Pocillopora珊瑚可能对这种新型珊瑚群落的功能和抗逆性产生影响。相比之下,潮间带的藻类和活珊瑚覆盖或珊瑚群落组成没有变化。这些发现表明,在小空间尺度上珊瑚耐热性的差异可能会对漂白恢复能力产生重大影响,并且漂白后恢复轨迹和群落重组的空间斑块可能是热变珊瑚礁的共同特征。我们的研究结果进一步证实,适应每日高温变化的珊瑚礁在当前气候条件下作为恢复力热点发挥着关键作用。但是在海洋变暖加剧的情况下,他们这样做的能力可能会受到限制。
    Coral reefs face an uncertain future punctuated by recurring climate-induced disturbances. Understanding how reefs can recover from and reassemble after mass bleaching events is therefore important to predict their responses and persistence in a rapidly changing ocean. On naturally extreme reefs characterized by strong daily temperature variability, coral heat tolerance can vary significantly over small spatial gradients but it remains poorly understood how this impacts bleaching resilience and recovery dynamics, despite their importance as resilience hotspots and potential refugia. In the macrotidal Kimberley region in NW Australia, the 2016 global mass bleaching event had a strong habitat-specific impact on intertidal and subtidal coral communities at our study site: corals in the thermally variable intertidal bleached less severely and recovered within six months, while 68% of corals in the moderately variable subtidal died. We therefore conducted benthic surveys 3.5 years after the bleaching event to determine potential changes in benthic cover and coral community composition. In the subtidal, we documented substantial increases in algal cover and live coral cover had not fully recovered to pre-bleaching levels. Furthermore, the subtidal coral community shifted from being dominated by branching Acropora corals with a competitive life history strategy to opportunistic, weedy Pocillopora corals which likely has implications for the functioning and stress resilience of this novel coral community. In contrast, no shifts in algal and live coral cover or coral community composition occurred in the intertidal. These findings demonstrate that differences in coral heat tolerance across small spatial scales can have large consequences for bleaching resilience and that spatial patchiness in recovery trajectories and community reassembly after bleaching might be a common feature on thermally variable reefs. Our findings further confirm that reefs adapted to high daily temperature variability play a key role as resilience hotspots under current climate conditions, but their ability to do so may be limited under intensifying ocean warming.
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