必须系统地考虑社会,经济,以及管理和分配水资源的自然禀赋。然而,很少有研究从社会水文学的角度对区域水资源配置进行综合定量评价并提出建议。为了探索这一研究差距,构建了系统动力学模型和优化算法相结合的紧耦合框架,对陕西省水资源进行了创新性再分配。系统动力学模型仿真结果表明,在研究期间误差几乎总是在10%以内,表明了强大的仿真能力,为后续的模型耦合奠定了坚实的基础。通过制定具有四个单独目标的优化问题,耦合模型在大约30代时间内实现了收敛。同时优化四个目标导致第150代附近的收敛。优化的Pareto解决方案集直观地展示了不同目标之间的权衡。在优化的水分配时间表中,榆林市用水量变化为1.22×108m3,对农业和生活用水分配的优化效应最为显著。结果表明,综合基尼系数通常在0.2到0.3之间。2010-2021年期间,基尼系数呈下降趋势,标志着整个研究期间水资源分配的积极轨迹和较高的公平性。渭南粮食年总绿色WF最高,为14.26×108m3,咸阳次之,为9.52×108m3,铜川最低,为0.54×108m3。汉中的年平均粮食蓝色WF最高,11.33×108m3,渭南次之,9.60×108m3,铜川最低,为0.14×108m3。本研究提出的耦合框架具有重大创新,可扩展性,和实际效率。它可以激发未来的研究和决策,并具有在其他地区应用的潜力。
It is essential to systematically consider social, economic, and natural endowments in managing and allocating water resources. However, few studies have comprehensively quantitatively evaluated the allocation of regional water resources from a socio-hydrology perspective and provided recommendations. To explore this research gap, we have constructed a tightly coupled framework that integrates system dynamics models and optimization algorithms to carry out an innovative redistribution of water resources in Shaanxi Province. The system dynamics model simulation results showed that the error was almost always within 10% over the research period, indicating robust simulation capability and laying a solid foundation for subsequent model coupling. The coupled model achieves convergence in approximately 30 generations by formulating the optimization problem with four individual objectives. Optimizing four objectives concurrently results in convergence around the 150th generation. The optimized Pareto solution sets visually demonstrate the trade-offs between different objectives. In the optimized water allocation schedule, the water consumption in Yulin exhibits a change of 1.22 ×108m3, reflecting the most significant optimization effects on agricultural and domestic water allocation. The results indicated that the comprehensive Gini coefficient typically ranged between 0.2 and 0.3. Over the period from the year 2010-2021, the Gini coefficient exhibited a declining trend, signifying a positive trajectory in water resource allocation throughout the research period and a high level of fairness. The annual total green WF of grain in Weinan was the highest at 14.26 ×108m3, followed by Xianyang at 9.52 ×108m3, and the lowest in Tongchuan at 0.54 ×108m3. The annual average amount of blue WF of grain is the highest in Hanzhong, at 11.33 ×108m3, followed by Weinan at 9.60 ×108m3, and the lowest in Tongchuan at 0.14 ×108m3. The coupled framework proposed in this study exhibits significant innovation, scalability, and practical efficiency. It can inspire future research and decision-making and holds the potential for application in other regions.