Synoptic weather patterns

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    客观天气分类方法已被广泛应用于确定主要的臭氧有利天气模式(SWPs),然而,不同分类方法的一致性很少被检查。在这项研究中,我们应用了两种广泛使用的客观方法,自组织图(SOM)和K-均值聚类分析,在2015-2022年期间,在四个中国特大城市获得对臭氧有利的SWP。我们发现,这两种算法在识别四个中国特大城市的主要臭氧有利SWP方面基本一致。在对六个SWP进行分类的情况下,导出的环流场高度相似,两种方法之间的空间相关性为0.99,每个SWP的平均频率差异小于7%。广州的六个主要的臭氧有利SWP都具有异常高的辐射和温度的特征,较低的云层,相对湿度,和风速,与气候学相比,沉降更强烈。我们发现,在2015-2022年期间,臭氧有利的SWPs天数以3.2天/年的速度显着增加,比臭氧超标天数(3.0天/年)的增加更快。臭氧有利SWP的发生与臭氧超标天数之间的年际变化通常与0.6的时间相关系数一致。特别是,2022年臭氧有利的SWP显着增加,特别是通常发生在9月的副热带高压类型,与2022年9月广州持续的臭氧污染事件一致。因此,我们的研究结果表明,臭氧有利SWP的频率增加在2015-2022年广州市臭氧增加中发挥了重要作用。
    Objective weather classification methods have been extensively applied to identify dominant ozone-favorable synoptic weather patterns (SWPs), however, the consistency of different classification methods is rarely examined. In this study, we apply two widely-used objective methods, the self-organizing map (SOM) and K-means clustering analysis, to derive ozone-favorable SWPs at four Chinese megacities in 2015-2022. We find that the two algorithms are largely consistent in recognizing dominant ozone-favorable SWPs for four Chinese megacities. In the case of classifying six SWPs, the derived circulation fields are highly similar with a spatial correlation of 0.99 between the two methods, and the difference in the mean frequency of each SWP is less than 7%. The six dominant ozone-favorable SWPs in Guangzhou are all characterized by anomaly higher radiation and temperature, lower cloud cover, relative humidity, and wind speed, and stronger subsidence compared to climatology mean. We find that during 2015-2022, the occurrence of ozone-favorable SWPs days increases significantly at a rate of 3.2 day/year, faster than the increases in the ozone exceedance days (3.0 day/year). The interannual variability between the occurrence of ozone-favorable SWPs and ozone exceedance days are generally consistent with a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.6. In particular, the significant increase in ozone-favorable SWPs in 2022, especially the Subtropical High type which typically occurs in September, is consistent with a long-lasting ozone pollution episode in Guangzhou during September 2022. Our results thus reveal that enhanced frequency of ozone-favorable SWPs plays an important role in the observed 2015-2022 ozone increase in Guangzhou.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    高浓度臭氧污染对生态系统和人类健康构成威胁。然而,关于天气模式(SWPs)的交替演变对多尺度传输过程和臭氧来源的影响的研究有限。2018年6月14日至18日,合肥和更广阔的长三角地区(YRD)罕见的连续臭氧污染困扰。本研究使用现场观测数据和WRF-Chem模型模拟调查了气象因素和来源。分析表明,东北低压系统从北向南移动产生了冷锋。这种移动的冷锋促进了携带源自华北的高浓度臭氧的暖空气团的垂直运输。随后,富含臭氧的气团(ORM)在YRD上运输,受蒙古高压系统东移的影响。基于具有NOx标记机制的WRF-Chem模型和WRF-FLEXPART反向模拟,据证实,从华北地区(NCR)到合肥的显着大气运输,尤其是6月15日随着蒙古高压减弱和东移,它携带了YRDNOx排放产生的ORM,在120°E至126°E和25°N至30°N的范围内积聚在海上。WRF-chem模型结果以及来自地球系统探测(TROPESS)化学再分析数据集第2版(TCR-2)的Tropospheric臭氧和前体都揭示了该地理范围内存在ORM。随后,由弱化的高压系统向海进行的ORM被重新引入内陆,受台风“盖米”外围环流带来的东南风影响。总之,SWP的交替演变显著影响NCR和YRD地区的多尺度臭氧传输,对这一长期事件做出了重大贡献。这些发现为改善区域臭氧污染预防和控制机制提供了宝贵的见解。
    High-concentration ozone pollution pose threats to ecosystems and human health. However, there is limited research on the impact of the alternating evolution of synoptic weather patterns (SWPs) on the multi-scale transport processes and sources of ozone. From June 14 to 18, 2018, a rare consecutive ozone pollution plagued in Hefei and broader Yangtze River Delta region (YRD). This study investigates the meteorological factors and sources using in-situ observational data and WRF-Chem model simulations. Analysis reveals a northeastern low-pressure system moving from north to south generated a cold front. This moving cold front facilitated the vertical transport of warm air masses carrying high-concentration ozone originating from North China. Subsequently, Ozone-rich air masses (ORMs) were transported over the YRD, influenced by the eastward movement of the Mongolian high-pressure system. Based on WRF-Chem model with NOx tagging mechanisms and WRF-FLEXPART backward simulations, it is confirmed that a notable atmospheric transport originated from North China region (NCR) to Hefei, especially on June 15. As the Mongolian high-pressure weakens and shifts east-southward, it carried ORMs generated by NOx emissions from the YRD, accumulating over the sea within the range of 120°E to 126°E and 25°N to 30°N. Both WRF-chem model results and TRopospheric Ozone and Precursors from Earth System Sounding (TROPESS) Chemistry Reanalysis dataset Version 2 (TCR-2) revealed the existence of ORMs in this geographic range. Subsequently, the ORMs carried out to sea by the weakened high-pressure system were reintroduced inland, influenced by southeast winds brought about by the peripheral circulation of typhoon \"Gaemi\". In summary, the alternating evolution of SWPs significantly influences multi-scale ozone transport from both the NCR and the YRD regions, making substantial contributions to this prolonged episode. These findings offer valuable insights for improving regional ozone pollution prevention and control mechanisms.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在细颗粒物(PM2.5)和臭氧(O3)之间的颗粒-臭氧协同关系(PO)方面存在相当大的学术兴趣。使用各种天气天气模式(SWPs),我们定量评估了PO的变化,这与制定旨在控制空气中复杂污染的政策有关。首先,基于2018年3月至2019年2月的1年抽样数据,采用平方和技术(SS)对长江三角洲(YRD)进行SWPs分类.在YRD地区可以找到五个优势SWP,包括低于SWP1的阿留申低点(发生在今年的45%),SWP2下的热带气旋(21%),热带气旋和西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)低于SWP3(15.4%),SWP4下的WPSH(6.9%),和SWP5下的大陆高压(3.1%)。PM2.5和O3浓度之间的“跷跷板”现象表现出明显的空间异质性,受气象机制的影响。第二,采用多元线性回归(MLR)模型和偏相关(PCOR)分析来量化主要成分和气象因素对PO的影响。气象变量只能共同解释PM2.5变化的33.0%,但O3为58.0%。O3在低浓度的PM2.5中相互促进,但在高浓度的PM2.5中受到抑制。高相对湿度(RH)有利于PM2.5二次组分的生成,增强了气溶胶的辐射效应和PO的负相关。此外,应注意评估前体水平的综合影响,天气,以及对粒子-臭氧复合污染的化学反应。夏季应加强O3污染物的控制,而重点应该是减少冬季PM2.5污染物。防治措施需要反映天气状况和污染特征的差异,重点关注RH和PM2.5的次要成分。
    There is considerable academic interest in the particle-ozone synergistic relationship (PO) between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Using various synoptic weather patterns (SWPs), we quantitatively assessed the variations in the PO, which is relevant to formulating policies aimed at controlling complex pollution in the air. First, based on one-year sampling data from March 2018 to February 2019, the SWPs classification of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was conducted using the sum-of-squares technique (SS). Five dominant SWPs can be found in the YRD region, including the Aleutian low under SWP1 (occurring 45 % of the year), a tropical cyclone under SWP2 (21 %), the tropical cyclone and western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) under SWP3 (15.4 %), the WPSH under SWP4 (6.9 %), and a continental high pressure under SWP5 (3.1 %). The phenomenon of a \"seesaw\" between PM2.5 and O3 concentrations exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, which was influenced by meteorological mechanisms. Second, the multi-linear regression (MLR) model and the partial correlation (PCOR) analysis were employed to quantify the effects of dominant components and meteorological factors on the PO. Meteorological variables could collectively explain only 33.0 % of the PM2.5 variations, but 58.0 % for O3. O3 promoted each other with low concentrations of PM2.5 but was inhibited by high concentrations of PM2.5. High relative humidity (RH) was conducive to the generation of PM2.5 secondary components and enhanced the radiative effects of aerosols and the negative correlation of PO. In addition, attention should be paid to assessing the combined effects of precursor levels, weather, and chemical reactions on the particle-ozone complex pollution. The control of O3 pollutants should be intensified in summer, while the focus should be on reducing PM2.5 pollutants in winter. Prevention and control measures need to reflect the differences in weather conditions and pollution characteristics, with a focus on RH and secondary components of PM2.5.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为了阐明天气模式和地形对空气污染影响的潜在机制,这项研究在T模式下进行了倾斜旋转主成分分析,以分析ERA5再分析数据,并对2015年至2022年700hPa地势高度的典型天气模式进行了分类。使用广义加性模型定量评估了由于天气模式引起的空气污染恶化的可能性。结果表明,由于地形的影响,兰州受到下降气流(对流强度较弱)的影响,并且相对于其他地区,白天对流边界层的形成延迟了1-2小时。在低槽模式(南低压型[SL]和南低压弱压型[SL-])和地形的共同作用下,行星边界层(PBL)上方稳定层的形成会削弱局部气流的垂直交换并抑制PBL的发展。SL的类型导致了最严重的污染,导致PM2.5浓度增加61.9%(95%置信区间[CI]:46.3%-79.3%)。对于西南高压模式(南高[SH],西南弱高[SWH-],西南高[SWH],和西南强高[SWH+]压力类型),盛行的西北风是污染物的主要运输路径。对于高压模式(北高[NH]和西北高[NWH]压力类型)和南风模式(东南弱高[SEH-],东南高[SEH],和东北高[NEH]压力类型),垂直对流的增强,PBL的深化,减少污染运输导致空气质量改善。NH,NWH,和NEH压力类型导致PM2.5浓度下降18.4%(95%CI:8.8%-27.1%),14.9%(95%CI:4.7%-24.0%),和35.9%(95%CI:9.7%-54.6%),分别。
    To clarify the mechanism underlying the effects of weather patterns and topography on air pollution, this study conducted the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in the T-mode to analyze ERA5 reanalysis data and categorize typical weather patterns at a 700-hPa geopotential height from 2015 to 2022. The probability of worsened air pollution attributable to weather patterns was quantitatively assessed using a generalized additive model. The results indicated that due to the influence of topography, Lanzhou was affected by an extended period of downdraft (with weak convective intensity) and the delayed formation of a convective boundary layer during the daytime by 1-2 h relative to other areas. Under the combined effect of low trough patterns (south low pressure type [SL] and south low weak pressure type [SL-]) and topography, the formation of a stable layer above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) would weaken the vertical exchange of the local airflow and inhibit the development of the PBL. The type of SL led to the most severe pollution, causing a 61.9 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 46.3 %-79.3 %) increase in PM2.5 concentration. For southwest high pressure patterns (south high [SH], southwest weak high [SWH-], southwest high [SWH], and southwest strong high [SWH+] pressure types), the prevailing northwest wind was the main transport path for pollutants. For the high pressure patterns (north high [NH] and northwest high [NWH] pressure types) and south wind patterns (southeast weak high [SEH-], southeast high [SEH], and northeast high [NEH] pressure types), the enhancement of vertical convection, deepening of the PBL, and reduction of pollution transport led to improved air quality. The NH, NWH, and NEH pressure types caused PM2.5 concentration to decrease by 18.4 % (95 % CI: 8.8 %-27.1 %), 14.9 % (95 % CI: 4.7 %-24.0 %), and 35.9 % (95 % CI: 9.7 %-54.6 %), respectively.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China has been frequently suffering from severe haze events (observed daily mean surface fine particulate matter PM2.5 concentrations larger than 150 μg m-3) partially caused by certain types of large-scale synoptic patterns. Black carbon (BC), as an important PM2.5 component and a primarily emitted species, is a good tracer for investigating sources and formation mechanisms leading to severe haze pollutions. We apply GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint to quantify the source contributions to BC concentrations at the surface and at the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) during typical types of severe haze events for April 2013-2017 in BTH. Four types of severe haze events, mainly occurred in December-January-February (DJF, 62.3%) and in September-October-November (SON, 26.3%), are classified based on the associated synoptic weather patterns using principal component analysis. Model results reasonably capture the daily variations of BC measurements at three ground sites in BTH. The adjoint method attributes BC concentrations to emissions from different source sectors and from local versus regional transport at the model spatial and temporal resolutions. By source sectors, the adjoint method attributes the daily BC concentrations during typical severe haze events (in winter heating season) in Beijing largely to residential emissions (48.1-62.0%), followed by transportation (16.8-25.9%) and industry (19.1-29.5%) sectors. In terms of regionally aggregated source influences, local emissions in Beijing (59.6-79.5%) predominate the daily surface BC concentrations, while contributions of emissions from Beijing, Hebei, and outside BTH regions are comparable to the daily BC concentrations at the top of PBL (~200-400 m). Our adjoint analyses would provide a scientific support for joint regional and targeted control policies on effectively mitigating the particulate pollutions when the dominant synoptic weather patterns are predicted.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    North China Plain area (NCP) is one of the most densely populated and heavily polluted regions in the world. In the last five years, frequently happened fine particulate matter (PM2.5) serious pollution events were one of the top environmental concerns in China. As PM2.5 concentrations are highly influenced by synoptic flow patterns and local meteorological conditions, a two-stage hierarchical clustering method based on dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) and standard k-means clustering algorithm was employed to classify synoptic wind fields into 6 patterns over the NCP area using the data of 5 PM2.5 seasons (Sept. 15th-Apr. 15th) from 2013 to 2017. Among the six identified synoptic patterns, pattern of uniform pressure field (U) and that of zonal high pressure (ZH) accounted for 78.21%, 65.55%, 63.56%, 57.11%, 59.13% and 58.27% studied heavy smog pollution events in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai city. The two particular patterns were associated with uniform pressure field and sparsely latitudinal isobar in 850 hPa level, respectively. They were also characterized by high relative humidity, low temperature, low-speed northerly wind in Tianjin and Tangshan, and southerly wind in the other cities. Under the continuous control of pattern ZH, the values of 24 h-average PM2.5 were found to increase at a rate of 31.78 μg/m3 per day. To evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors and precursors to PM2.5 levels, linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) were applied to establish relations among 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations, concentrations of main precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic patterns. Results show that the variations of precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic flow patterns can explain 51.67%, 19.15% and 14.01% changes of the 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations, respectively. This study illustrates that dense precursor emissions are still the main cause for heavy haze pollution events, although meteorological conditions play almost equal roles sometimes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The aim of the study is to assess the relationship between PM2.5, synoptic weather patterns, and admissions for circulatory and respiratory disease. A PM2.5 event is defined as a day when the daily mean PM2.5 concentration exceeds 65 μg/m(3). PM2.5 events that coincided with the occurrence of PM attributed to Asian dust storm (ADS) and photochemical smog (PCS) were removed from the study in order to focus solely on the health effects from PM2.5. A one-tailed z-test and a relative risk (RR) estimate were performed. Hospital admissions for respiratory diseases were greater than those for circulatory diseases, and asthma-related diseases had a higher impact in the Adults group, and the maximum RR was 1.94 [1.37 2.77] on the first day after the event. It is evident that PM2.5 episodes connected to particular synoptic weather patterns pose a risk to health as large as ADS and PCS events.
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