Stock market returns

股票市场回报
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文考察了美国货币政策不确定性(MPU)对亚洲发达国家的影响,新兴,和前沿股票市场使用分位数对分位数(QQR)方法,使用2006年1月至2022年12月14个亚洲国家的月度数据。研究发现,美国货币政策对亚洲股市产生了显著的负面影响。这主要是由于美元作为普遍货币的广泛使用,通过贸易关系对其他国家产生了巨大的连锁反应。在亚洲发达市场,MPU与澳大利亚和新西兰呈负相关。同时,它与香港和日本在上分位数有积极的关系。在亚洲新兴市场中,MPU对台湾产生负面影响,印度,和中国的回报,在较高的MPU分位数处增加这种负相关关系。此外,MPU与泰国有显著的负相关关系,印度尼西亚,韩国,马来西亚回来了。相比之下,MPU的较高分位数对菲律宾股票回报没有明显影响。在亚洲前沿市场,MPU对巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡的回报产生负面影响。这些发现的含义是双重的:对于投资者来说,这项研究为套期保值活动提供了有价值的见解,允许根据其他国家的MPU做出更明智的决定,以确定有利可图的股票。对于决策者来说,这项研究有助于制定有效的货币政策策略。此外,未来的研究可以通过探索其他市场并将其结果与本研究中提出的发现进行比较来建立这些结果。
    This paper examines the impact of the Monetary Policy Uncertainty (MPU) of the United States on Asian developed, emerging, and frontier stock markets using a Quantile-on-Quantile (QQR) approach by using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2022 of 14 Asian countries. The study finds that US monetary policy significantly negatively influences Asian stock markets. This is primarily due to the widespread use of the US dollar as a universal currency, resulting in substantial ripple effects on other nations through trade relationships. In Asian developed markets, MPU is negatively related to Australia and New Zealand. At the same time, it has a positive relationship with Hong Kong and Japan at the upper quantiles. Among Asian emerging markets, MPU negatively impacts Taiwan\'s, India\'s, and China\'s returns, increasing this negative relationship at higher MPU quantiles. Additionally, MPU has a significant negative relationship with Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia returns. In contrast, higher quantiles of MPU have no discernible impact on the Philippines stock returns. In Asian frontier markets, MPU negatively impacts Pakistan\'s and Sri Lanka\'s returns. The implications of these findings are twofold: for investors, this study provides valuable insights for hedging activities, allowing for more informed decisions based on the MPU of other countries to identify profitable stocks. For policymakers, this research aids in formulating effective monetary policy strategies. Furthermore, future studies can build upon these results by exploring other markets and comparing their outcomes with the findings presented in this study.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们使用中国本地搜索引擎的互联网搜索量构建了大流行诱发的恐惧(PIF)指数来衡量对COVID-19大流行的恐惧,并实证研究了对大流行的恐惧对中国股市收益的影响。采用多元回归的减少偏差估计方法来解决小样本偏差问题。我们发现,PIF指数对股票市场的累计收益有负且显著的影响。PIF的影响是持续的,这可以用投资者过度悲观的错误定价来解释。我们进一步发现,PIF指数通过噪声交易直接预测股市收益。投资者的互联网搜索行为增强了对疫情的恐惧,大流行引发的恐惧决定了未来的股市回报,而不是由COVID-19大流行引起的病例数和死亡人数。
    We construct a pandemic-induced fear (PIF) index to measure fear of the COVID-19 pandemic using Internet search volumes of the Chinese local search engine and empirically investigate the impact of fear of the pandemic on Chinese stock market returns. A reduced-bias estimation approach for multivariate regression is employed to address the issue of small-sample bias. We find that the PIF index has a negative and significant impact on cumulative stock market returns. The impact of PIF is persistent, which can be explained by mispricing from investors\' excessive pessimism. We further reveal that the PIF index directly predicts stock market returns through noise trading. Investors\' Internet search behaviors enhance the fear of the pandemic, and pandemic-induced fear determines future stock market returns, rather than the number of cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    扰乱金融市场的投资者兴趣的主要来源是反映宏观经济的新闻。本研究旨在通过研究印刷媒体对中巴经济走廊(CPEC)的描述来跟踪投资者的积极和消极市场注意力的变化及其对股市回报的影响。我们从彭博数据库访问2015年1月至2019年12月期间的国家和国际报纸对CPEC的每日和每周报道。使用哈佛心理学词典,我们将新闻标题分为正面和负面的新闻情绪。然后,我们将新闻情绪与股市回报联系起来,使用五分位数分析,普通最小二乘(OLS),和向量自回归(VAR)模型。结果表明,投资者对正面消息反应迅速且显著。如果正面新闻流增加,他们为同一只股票支付更多;因此,股市回报也在增加。相比之下,投资者对负面消息的增加没有同样的热情。这些发现符合处置效应的理论基础。这些结果对于活跃的投资者和从业人员在印刷媒体上围绕CPEC的炒作中设计投资策略可能是有用的。
    The primary source of investor interest that disrupts the financial markets is news that reflects the macroeconomy. This study intends to track changes in investors\' positive and negative market attention and their effects on stock market returns by examining the print media portrayal of the China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC). We access the daily and weekly coverage of the CPEC by national and international newspapers from the Bloomberg database over the period from January 2015 to December 2019. Using the Harvard psychological dictionary, we categorize the news headlines into positive and negative news sentiments. We then relate the news sentiment to the stock market returns, using quintile analysis, ordinary least squares (OLS), and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The results show that investors react quickly and significantly to positive news. They pay more for the same stock if the positive news stream increases; hence, the stock market return also increases. In contrast, investors do not react with the same passion to an increase in negative news. These findings are in line with the theoretical rationale of the disposition effect. These outcomes may be useful for active investors and practitioners to devise investment strategies in the presence of the hype surrounding the CPEC in the print media.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文探讨了在COVID-19中断期间,燃油价格变动对2020年股市回报的影响。在这样做的时候,代表全球发达和新兴经济体的七个选定的股票市场指数的月度数据被用于分析。该研究使用时变参数VAR模型来检验油价与股市收益之间的时变因果关系,并使用一种新颖的分位数因果关系方法来捕捉这些市场在COVID-19变化的市场条件下的波动。该研究进一步利用熵传递方法在数据序列存在非线性的情况下捕获格兰杰因果关系。结果表明,从燃料价格到富时100指数,太平洋,和欧洲股票指数,但不是相反。结果表明,对于FTSE-100和欧洲地区,股票和天然气之间存在双向信息流,反之亦然。然而,建立了从股票市场到太平洋和新兴经济体的单向信息流。
    This article explores the impact of fuel price movements on the stock market return of 2020 during the COVID-19 disruptions. In doing so, a monthly data of seven selected stock market indices representing developed and emerging economies globally was used for analysis. The study used a time-varying parameter VAR model to examine a time-varying causal association between oil prices and stock market returns and a novel quantile-causality approach to capture the fluctuations of these markets under COVID-19\'s varying market conditions. The study further utilises the entropy transfer approach to capture the Granger-causal relationship in the presence of nonlinearities of the data series. The results indicate a high information flow from fuel prices to the FTSE-100, Pacific, and European stock indicies, but not the other way round. The results show that, for the FTSE-100 and the European region, there is a two-way information flow between equities and natural gas, and vice-versa. However, a one-way information flow was established from the stock market to the Pacific and emerging economies.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在本文中,我们利用加纳股票市场(GSE)的每日股票回报来检验新冠肺炎大流行对市场波动的影响。我们从1月2日开始考虑回报波动,2018年12月31日,2021年,并将其分为两个时期-前COVID-19时期和COVID-19时期。利用指数GARCH(EGARCH)模型,我们在所有观察到的时期都发现了杠杆效应。此外,研究表明,COVID-19期间经历了高波动,具有短暂的波动持续性。此外,在COVID-19大流行期间,积极冲击对GSE收益波动的影响比同等幅度的负面消息更显著。
    In this paper, we utilise daily stock returns for the Ghanaian equity market (GSE) to examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on market volatility. We take return volatility from 2nd January, 2018, to 31st December, 2021, and split it into two periods-the pre-COVID-19 period and the COVID-19 period. Utilising the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, we discovered leverage effects in all observed periods. Additionally, the research indicates that the COVID-19 period experienced high volatility with a transient volatility persistence. Furthermore, during the COVID-19 pandemic, positive shocks had a more significant impact on the volatility of the GSE\'s returns than negative news of comparable magnitude.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19 unexpectedly ensnared the entire world and wreaked havoc on global economic and financial systems. The stock market is sensitive to black swan events, and the COVID-19 disaster was no exception. Against this backdrop, this study explores the impact of COVID-19 and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on Chinese stock markets\' returns for the period spanning January 23, 2020 to August 04, 2021. The outcomes of the novel quantile-on-quantile regression analysis revealed that both COVID-19 and EPU had a significant negative impact on both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market returns, while COVID-19 aggravated the level of economic uncertainty in both financial markets. The quantile causality approach of Troster et al. (2018) validates our main estimations. We conclude that COVID-19 and a high level of EPU enervated the returns of China\'s leading stock markets. Our study provides key insights to policymakers and market participants to determine the behavior of China\'s stock market returns vis-à-vis COVID-19 during the peak of the pandemic and beyond. Specifically, our findings apprise portfolio investors to augment their portfolio diversification fronts.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

    求助全文

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究采用各种方法考察了20国集团投资者的正负情绪与股市收益和波动性之间的关系,包括具有固定效应的面板回归,面板分位数回归,面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,和特定国家的回归。我们使用谷歌搜索量指数来代理与冠状病毒病(COVID-19)和COVID-19疫苗相关的术语的负面和正面投资者情绪,分别。使用2020年3月至2021年5月的每周数据,我们记录了正负投资者情绪与股市回报和波动性之间的显著关系。具体来说,积极的投资者情绪的增加导致股票收益的增加,而消极的投资者情绪在较低的分位数降低股票收益。投资者情绪对波动性的影响在整个分布中是一致的:负面情绪增加了波动性,而积极的情绪减少了波动性。这些结果是稳健的,因为它们得到了格兰杰因果关系检验和PVAR模型的证实。这些发现可能会对投资组合产生影响,因为它们表明,投资者积极和消极情绪的代理似乎是大流行期间股票回报和波动性的良好预测指标。
    This study examines the relationship between positive and negative investor sentiments and stock market returns and volatility in Group of 20 countries using various methods, including panel regression with fixed effects, panel quantile regressions, a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model, and country-specific regressions. We proxy for negative and positive investor sentiments using the Google Search Volume Index for terms related to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and COVID-19 vaccine, respectively. Using weekly data from March 2020 to May 2021, we document significant relationships between positive and negative investor sentiments and stock market returns and volatility. Specifically, an increase in positive investor sentiment leads to an increase in stock returns while negative investor sentiment decreases stock returns at lower quantiles. The effect of investor sentiment on volatility is consistent across the distribution: negative sentiment increases volatility, whereas positive sentiment reduces volatility. These results are robust as they are corroborated by Granger causality tests and a PVAR model. The findings may have portfolio implications as they indicate that proxies for positive and negative investor sentiments seem to be good predictors of stock returns and volatility during the pandemic.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文调查了中国股市对新冠肺炎疫苗批准公告的反应。这些公告通常会影响股价,但影响似乎是不同的部门。特别是,制造业的公司,批发,零售,信息技术部门持续受益。我们还发现,业绩较差的公司,更小的尺寸,与其他人相比,更大的年龄做出了更积极的反应。
    This paper investigates the Chinese stock market reactions to the announcements of Covid-19 vaccine approvals. These announcements generally impacted stock prices, but the impacts appeared to be heterogeneous across sectors. Particularly, firms in the manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and information technology sectors were persistently benefited. We also find that firms with poorer performance, smaller sizes, and greater ages reacted more positively compared to others.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID引起的公众焦虑对股票市场的影响,特别是在欧洲股市的回报中,在这项研究中进行了研究。谷歌趋势和维基百科收集的关于COVID-19概念的搜索量被用作COVID引起的公众焦虑的代理。当使用面板数据方法对2020年1月2日至2020年9月17日14个欧洲股票市场的数据样本时,COVID引起的公众焦虑被证明与欧洲股票市场的负回报有关。使用自动交易系统,我们利用这一发现提出了基于COVID引起的焦虑的投资方法。回溯测试的结果表明,这些技术有可能产生非凡的利润。这些结果对政府官员有重大影响,媒体,和投资者。
    The effect of COVID-induced public anxiety on stock markets, particularly in European stock market returns, is examined in this research. The search volumes for the notion of COVID-19 gathered by Google Trends and Wikipedia were used as proxies for COVID-induced public anxiety. COVID-induced public anxiety was shown to be linked with negative returns in European stock markets when a panel data method was used to a sample of data from 14 European stock markets from January 2, 2020 to September 17, 2020. Using an automated trading system, we used this finding to suggest investment methods based on COVID-induced anxiety. The findings of back-testing indicate that these techniques have the potential to generate exceptional profits. These results have significant consequences for government officials, the media, and investors.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    当前的研究论文确定了石油价格-股票市场关系的当前动态,以提供研究概述并提出进一步的研究方向。我们使用文献R包检查了684项研究,以确定油价冲击的研究趋势,股市回报,和波动溢出效应。我们认识最有影响力的作家,出版物,和研究机构及其在当前科学文献中的意义。我们进一步分析了研究主题,以观察现有文献中的障碍,并提出了新的研究方向,以总结通过纳入主持人分析的分类部门分析和荟萃分析方法将在未来扩大研究贡献。最后,我们通过确定新的研究途径来结束我们的调查。
    The current research paper identifies the current dynamics in the oil price-stock market nexus to provide a research overview and suggest further research directions. We used bibliometrix R package to examine 684 studies to identify research trends in oil price shocks, stock market returns, and volatility spillover effects. We recognize the most influential authors, publications, and research institutions and their significance within the current scientific literature. We further analyzed research themes to observe impediments in the existing literature and suggest new research directions to summarize that disaggregated sectoral analysis and meta-analysis approach by including moderator analysis will broaden the research contribution in the future. Lastly, we conclude our investigation by identifying new research avenues.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Pubmed)

公众号