In this article we address two related issues on the learning of probabilistic sequences of events. First, which features make the sequence of events generated by a stochastic chain more difficult to predict. Second, how to model the procedures employed by different learners to identify the structure of sequences of events. Playing the role of a goalkeeper in a video game, participants were told to predict step by step the successive directions-left, center or right-to which the penalty kicker would send the ball. The sequence of kicks was driven by a stochastic chain with memory of variable length. Results showed that at least three features play a role in the first issue: (1) the shape of the context tree summarizing the dependencies between present and past directions; (2) the entropy of the stochastic chain used to generate the sequences of events; (3) the existence or not of a deterministic periodic sequence underlying the sequences of events. Moreover, evidence suggests that best learners rely less on their own past choices to identify the structure of the sequences of events.

Synchronization is one of the most striking instances of collective behavior, occurring in many natural phenomena. For example, in some ant species, ants are inactive within the nest most of the time, but their bursts of activity are highly synchronized and involve the entire nest population. Here we revisit a simulation model that generates this synchronized rhythmic activity through autocatalytic behavior, i.e., active ants can activate inactive ants, followed by a period of rest. We derive a set of delay differential equations that provide an accurate description of the simulations for large ant colonies. Analysis of the fixed-point solutions, complemented by numerical integration of the equations, indicates the existence of stable limit-cycle solutions when the rest period is greater than a threshold and the event of spontaneous activation of inactive ants is very unlikely, so that most of the arousal of ants is done by active ants. Furthermore, we argue that the persistent oscillations observed in the simulations for colonies of finite size are due to resonant amplification of demographic noise.

Delays in nerve transmission are an important topic in the field of neuroscience. Spike signals fired or received by the dendrites of a neuron travel from the axon to a presynaptic cell. The spike signal then triggers a chemical reaction at the synapse, wherein a presynaptic cell transfers neurotransmitters to the postsynaptic cell, regenerates electrical signals via a chemical reaction through ion channels, and transmits them to neighboring neurons. In the context of describing the complex physiological reaction process as a stochastic process, this study aimed to show that the distribution of the maximum time interval of spike signals follows extreme-order statistics. By considering the statistical variance in the time constant of the leaky Integrate-and-Fire model, a deterministic time evolution model for spike signals, we enabled randomness in the time interval of the spike signals. When the time constant follows an exponential distribution function, the time interval of the spike signal also follows an exponential distribution. In this case, our theory and simulations confirmed that the histogram of the maximum time interval follows the Gumbel distribution, one of the three forms of extreme-value statistics. We further confirmed that the histogram of the maximum time interval followed a Fréchet distribution when the time interval of the spike signal followed a Pareto distribution. These findings confirm that nerve transmission delay can be described using extreme value statistics and can therefore be used as a new indicator of transmission delay.

Cellular Potts models are broadly applied across developmental biology and cancer research. We overcome limitations of the traditional approach, which reinterprets a modified Metropolis sampling as ad hoc dynamics, by introducing a physical timescale through Poissonian kinetics and by applying principles of stochastic thermodynamics to separate thermal and relaxation effects from athermal noise and nonconservative forces. Our method accurately describes cell-sorting dynamics in mouse-embryo development and identifies the distinct contributions of nonequilibrium processes, e.g., cell growth and active fluctuations.

When the costs of the inputs and outputs of the units under evaluation are known, the evaluation of the profit efficiency of the units is one of the most significant evaluations that can provide valuable information about them. In this research, first, a new definition of the optimal scale size based on the maximization of the average measure of profit efficiency is presented. The average measure of profit efficiency develops the concept of economic efficiency measure by introducing a more accurate measure of efficiency compared to the measure of comparative and profit efficiency. It has been shown that the average measure of profit efficiency in a convex space is equivalent to the measure of profit efficiency in constant returns to scale technology, and then, some models are presented to calculate profit efficiency in a stochastic environment, to increase the ability of profit models in real examples by considering the calculation errors of inputs and outputs. Finally, the proposed method is used in an empirical example to calculate the average profit efficiency of a set of postal areas in Iran.

In the current study, the fish farm model perturbed with time white noise is numerically examined. This model contains fish and mussel populations with external food supplied. The main aim of this work is to develop time-efficient numerical schemes for such models that preserve the dynamical properties. The stochastic backward Euler (SBE) and stochastic Implicit finite difference (SIFD) schemes are designed for the computational results. In the mean square sense, both schemes are consistent with the underlying model and schemes are von Neumann stable. The underlying model has various equilibria points and all these points are successfully gained by the SIFD scheme. The SIFD scheme showed positive and convergent behavior for the given values of the parameter. As the underlying model is a population model and its solution can attain minimum value zero, so a solution that can attain value less than zero is not biologically possible. So, the numerical solution obtained by the stochastic backward Euler is negative and divergent solution and it is not a biological phenomenon that is useless in such dynamical systems. The graphical behaviors of the system show that external nutrient supply is the important factor that controls the dynamics of the given model. The three-dimensional results are drawn for the various choices of the parameters.

Understanding diversity patterns and underlying drivers is one of the central topics in the fields of biogeography and community ecology. Aquatic macroinvertebrates are widely distributed in various wetlands and play vital ecological roles. Previous studies mainly have focused on macroinvertebrate diversity in a single type of wetland. Our understanding of the differences in diversity patterns and underlying drivers between different wetland types remains limited. Here, we compared diversity patterns and community assembly of floodplain wetlands (FWs) and non-floodplain wetlands (NWs) in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China. We found that the taxonomic richness and abundance were higher in NWs than those in FWs. Nineteen taxa were identified as habitat specialists in the NWs, whereas only four taxa were designated as habitat specialists in the FWs. In addition, the FW and NW assemblages exhibited contrasting compositions. Spatial and environmental variables explained the largest variations in the macroinvertebrate assemblages of NWs and FWs, respectively. Normalised stochasticity ratios and Sloan neutral models confirmed that the macroinvertebrate community assembly of both wetland types was driven largely by stochastic processes. Stochastic processes were more prominent in shaping macroinvertebrate communities of FWs, whereas a stronger dispersal limitation was detected in NWs. Our results revealed contrasting diversity patterns and assembly mechanisms of macroinvertebrate communities in FWs and NWs. We underscore the importance of flood disturbance in shaping wetland ecosystems in the Sanjiang Plain and highlight that conservation and restoration actions cover different types of wetland habitats.

Many physical and biological systems rely on the progression of material through multiple independent stages. In viral replication, for example, virions enter a cell to undergo a complex process comprising several disparate stages before the eventual accumulation and release of replicated virions. While such systems may have some control over the internal dynamics that make up this progression, a challenge for many is to regulate behavior under what are often highly variable external environments acting as system inputs. In this work, we study a simple analog of this problem through a linear multicompartment model subject to a stochastic input in the form of a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, a type of Gaussian process. By expressing the system as a multidimensional Gaussian process, we derive several closed-form analytical results relating to the covariances and autocorrelations of the system, quantifying the smoothing effect discrete compartments afford multicompartment systems. Semianalytical results demonstrate that feedback and feedforward loops can enhance system robustness, and simulation results probe the intractable problem of the first passage time distribution, which has specific relevance to eventual cell lysis in the viral replication cycle. Finally, we demonstrate that the smoothing seen in the process is a consequence of the discreteness of the system, and does not manifest in systems with continuous transport. While we make progress through analysis of a simple linear problem, many of our insights are applicable more generally, and our work enables future analysis into multicompartment processes subject to stochastic inputs.

By diversifying, cells in a clonal population can together overcome the limits of individuals. Diversity in single-cell growth rates allows the population to survive environmental stresses, such as antibiotics, and grow faster than the undiversified population. These functional cell-cell variations can arise stochastically, from noise in biochemical reactions, or deterministically, by asymmetrically distributing damaged components. While each of the mechanisms is well understood, the effect of the combined mechanisms is unclear. To evaluate the contribution of the deterministic component we developed a mathematical model by mapping the growing population to the Ising model. To analyze the combined effects of stochastic and deterministic contributions we introduced the analytical results of the Ising-mapping into an Euler-Lotka framework. Model results, confirmed by simulations and experimental data, show that deterministic cell-cell variations increase near-linearly with stress. As a consequence, we predict that the gain in population doubling time from cell-cell variations is primarily stochastic at low stress but may cross over to deterministic at higher stresses. Furthermore, we find that while the deterministic component minimizes population damage, stochastic variations antagonize this effect. Together our results may help identifying stress-tolerant pathogenic cells and thus inspire novel antibiotic strategies.

Genomic regions can acquire heritable epigenetic states through unique histone modifications, which lead to stable gene expression patterns without altering the underlying DNA sequence. However, the relationship between chromatin conformational dynamics and epigenetic stability is poorly understood. In this paper, we propose kinetic models to investigate the dynamic fluctuations of histone modifications and the spatial interactions between nucleosomes. Our model explicitly incorporates the influence of chemical modifications on the structural stability of chromatin and the contribution of chromatin contacts to the cooperative nature of chemical reactions. Through stochastic simulations and analytical theory, we have discovered distinct steady-state outcomes in different kinetic regimes, resembling a dynamical phase transition. Importantly, we have validated that the emergence of this transition, which occurs on biologically relevant timescales, is robust against variations in model design and parameters. Our findings suggest that the viscoelastic properties of chromatin and the timescale at which it transitions from a gel-like to a liquidlike state significantly impact dynamic processes that occur along the one-dimensional DNA sequence.