在全球变暖的背景下,频繁发生的热浪灾害严重威胁着人类的生命财产安全。城市群,作为人口和经济高度集中的主要地区,由于现有的城市热岛效应,容易受到热编织的影响。在这项研究中,我们研究了热浪的时空特征(热指数,HI)在中国2000-2020年,并从暴露的角度评估了19个城市群对热浪的脆弱性,敏感性和适应性。结果表明:(1)在过去的20年里,HI的频率和强度(大于26.67°C)均呈上升趋势。(2)山东半岛,河南中部,长江三角洲,长江中游,辽宁中南部城市群始终保持较高的脆弱性。(3)从2000年到2020年,京津冀的脆弱性,长江三角洲,成都-重庆,长江中游,广东-福建-浙江,哈尔滨-长春和辽宁中南部城市群始终以暴露为主。山东半岛的脆弱性,北部湾和豫中城市群一直以敏感性为主。北天山的脆弱性,兰州-西宁,关中和湖宝鄂渝城市群一直以适应性不足为主导。(4)最近,造成暴露的因素最多,敏感性和适应性是人口密度,户外工人和供水的比例,贡献率为38%,55%和26%,分别。本研究可为城市群间资源的合理配置提供科学依据,有效制定政策,引导人口从高温灾害中迁移。
In the context of global warming, frequent heat wave disasters have seriously threatened the safety of human life and property. The urban agglomeration, as the main region with a high concentration of population and economy, is susceptible to heat weaves due to the existing urban heat island effect. In this study, we investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of heat waves (heat index, HI) in China from 2000 to 2020 and assess the vulnerability of 19 urban agglomerations to heat waves from the perspective of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability. The results show that: (1) In the past 20 years, the frequency and intensity of HI (greater than 26.67 °C) both showed an upward trend. (2) Shandong Peninsula, Central Henan, Yangtze River Delta, Middle Reaches of Yangtze River, and Mid-southern Liaoning urban agglomerations always maintain a high vulnerability. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the vulnerability of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, Middle reaches of Yangtze River, Guangdong-Fujian-Zhejiang, Harbin-Changchun and Mid-southern Liaoning urban agglomerations were always dominated by exposure. The vulnerability of Shandong Peninsula, Beibu Gulf and Central Henan urban agglomeration has always been dominated by sensitivity. The vulnerability of North Tianshan Mountain, Lanzhou-Xining, Guanzhong and Hu-Bao-E-Yu urban agglomeration has always been dominated by inadequate adaptability. (4) Recently, the factors that contributed most to exposure, sensitivity and adaptability were population density, the proportion of outdoor workers and water supply, with contribution rates of 38%, 55% and 26%, respectively. This study can provide a scientific basis for the rational allocation of resources among urban agglomerations, effectively formulating policies and guiding population migration from high temperature disasters.