Spatial variability

空间变异性
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于复杂的机制,湿地生态系统中的甲烷通量(FCH4)差异很大。具有挑战性的准确估计。环境驱动因素之间的相互作用,虽然在调节FCH4方面至关重要,但还没有得到很好的理解。这里,首先使用来自不同湿地类型和气候区的22个地点的396,322个半小时测量结果分析了六个环境驱动因素对FCH4的交互影响。结果表明,土壤温度,潜热湍流通量,和生态系统呼吸主要对FCH4产生直接影响,而气温和总初级生产力主要通过与其他驱动因素相互作用而产生间接影响。强调了FCH4调控机制的显著空间变异性,不同的司机表现出不同的直接,间接,以及网站之间的总影响。然后将这种空间变异性与特定地点的年平均气温(17.7%)和地下水位(9.0%)条件相关联,允许将CH4来源分为四组,并确定了关键驱动因素。因此,提出了一种使用具有三个关键驱动因素的随机森林模型的改进估计方法,以更少的输入需求提供准确的FCH4预测。通过明确考虑环境相互作用并解释空间变异性,这项研究增强了我们对调节CH4排放机制的理解,有助于更有效地建模和估计湿地FCH4。
    Methane fluxes (FCH4) vary significantly across wetland ecosystems due to complex mechanisms, challenging accurate estimations. The interactions among environmental drivers, while crucial in regulating FCH4, have not been well understood. Here, the interactive effects of six environmental drivers on FCH4 were first analyzed using 396,322 half-hourly measurements from 22 sites across various wetland types and climate zones. Results reveal that soil temperature, latent heat turbulent flux, and ecosystem respiration primarily exerted direct effects on FCH4, while air temperature and gross primary productivity mainly exerted indirect effects by interacting with other drivers. Significant spatial variability in FCH4 regulatory mechanisms was highlighted, with different drivers demonstrated varying direct, indirect, and total effects among sites. This spatial variability was then linked to site-specific annual-average air temperature (17.7%) and water table (9.0%) conditions, allowing the categorization of CH4 sources into four groups with identified critical drivers. An improved estimation approach using a random forest model with three critical drivers was consequently proposed, offering accurate FCH4 predictions with fewer input requirements. By explicitly accounting for environmental interactions and interpreting spatial variability, this study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms regulating CH4 emissions, contributing to more efficient modeling and estimation of wetland FCH4.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在过去的一个世纪里,太平洋西北部许多溪流的水温稳步上升,濒临灭绝的鲑鱼栖息地正在缩小。通过燃烧森林林分的野火为溪流提供阴影,可以进一步加速PNW溪流的变暖。然而,先前关于野火对溪水温度影响的研究集中在单个溪流或燃烧事件上,限制了我们对PNW流中火灾后热响应多样性的理解。为了弥合这种知识差距,我们评估了野火对31个PNW流域夏季水温的影响,他们10-100%的河岸面积被烧毁。为了确保我们的结果的稳健性,我们采用多种方法来表征和量化火灾对火灾后水流温度变化的影响。31个被烧毁地点的平均值,在随后的三年中,野火相当于每天夏季水温增加了0.3-1°C。尽管如此,火灾后的夏季热响应在整个燃烧地点显示出广泛的异质性,在火灾后的夏季水温变暖的可能性和比率较高的河流地点,其河岸面积在高严重程度下燃烧的比例较大。此外,流域等流域特征,火灾后的天气,基岩渗透率,火灾前河岸森林覆盖,冬季积雪深度被确定为火灾后夏季水温响应的有力预测因子。我们的研究提供了关于野火对PNW夏季河流温度影响的多站点观点,提供见解,可以为单个河流和盆地以外的淡水管理工作提供信息。
    Over the past century, water temperatures in many streams across the Pacific Northwest (PNW) have steadily risen, shrinking endangered salmonid habitats. The warming of PNW stream reaches can be further accelerated by wildfires burning forest stands that provide shade to streams. However, previous research on the effect of wildfires on stream water temperatures has focused on individual streams or burn events, limiting our understanding of the diversity in post-fire thermal responses across PNW streams. To bridge this knowledge gap, we assessed the impact of wildfires on daily summer water temperatures across 31 PNW stream sites, where 10-100% of their riparian area burned. To ensure robustness of our results, we employed multiple approaches to characterize and quantify fire effects on post-fire stream water temperature changes. Averaged across the 31 burned sites, wildfires corresponded to a 0.3 - 1°C increase in daily summer water temperatures over the subsequent three years. Nonetheless, post-fire summer thermal responses displayed extensive heterogeneity across burned sites where the likelihood and rate of a post-fire summer water temperature warming was higher for stream sites with greater proportion of their riparian area burned under high severity. Also, watershed features such as basin area, post-fire weather, bedrock permeability, pre-fire riparian forest cover, and winter snowpack depth were identified as strong predictors of the post-fire summer water temperature responses across burned sites. Our study offers a multi-site perspective on the effect of wildfires on summer stream temperatures in the PNW, providing insights that can inform freshwater management efforts beyond individual streams and basins.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人类已经深刻地改变了跨尺度的磷(P)循环。农业驱动的变化(例如,过量的磷肥和粪肥添加),特别是,导致土壤中明显的磷积累,通常被称为“土壤遗留P”。这些遗留P储量是持久和长期的非点源,导致下游富营养化和生态系统服务退化。虽然对遗产P有相当大的科学和政策兴趣,其精细尺度的空间异质性,底层驱动因素,和差异的规模仍不清楚。在这里,我们提供了广泛的野外采样(150-m间隔网格),并在2020年对1438种表层土壤(0-15厘米)进行了分析,以研究两种典型的亚热带草原类型进行畜牧业生产:集约化管理(IM)和半自然(SN)牧场。我们提出以下问题:(1)什么是空间变异性,土壤遗留磷是否存在热点?(2)土壤遗留磷是否主要在牧场内变化,在牧场中,还是牧场类型之间?(3)土壤遗留磷与牧场管理强度有什么关系,土壤和地理特征?(4)土壤遗留磷与地上植物组织磷浓度之间的关系是什么?我们的结果表明,对土壤遗留磷的三个测量(总磷,代表不稳定P池的Mehlich-1和Mehlich-3可提取P)在整个景观中变化很大。空间自回归模型表明,土壤有机质,pH值,可用的Fe和Al,高程,牧场管理强度是土壤磷空间格局的关键预测因子,尽管模型预测总磷(68.9%)比不稳定P更可靠。我们的分析进一步证明,IM中土壤遗留磷的总方差大于SN牧场,加强牧场管理,重新调整土壤遗产P的空间格局。特别是,在控制样本量后,土壤磷在小尺度上变化很大,随着空间尺度的增加,方差减小。我们的结果表明,广泛的牧场或农场一级的最佳管理实践可能是有限的,效率较低,特别是对于更多的IM牧场。相反,减少土壤遗留磷和减轻磷负荷和损失的管理应在精细尺度上实施,旨在针对整个景观中空间不同的磷热点。
    Humans have profoundly altered phosphorus (P) cycling across scales. Agriculturally driven changes (e.g., excessive P-fertilization and manure addition), in particular, have resulted in pronounced P accumulations in soils, often known as \"soil legacy P.\" These legacy P reserves serve as persistent and long-term nonpoint sources, inducing downstream eutrophication and ecosystem services degradation. While there is considerable scientific and policy interest in legacy P, its fine-scale spatial heterogeneity, underlying drivers, and scales of variance remain unclear. Here we present an extensive field sampling (150-m interval grid) and analysis of 1438 surface soils (0-15 cm) in 2020 for two typical subtropical grassland types managed for livestock production: Intensively managed (IM) and Semi-natural (SN) pastures. We ask the following questions: (1) What is the spatial variability, and are there hotspots of soil legacy P? (2) Does soil legacy P vary primarily within pastures, among pastures, or between pasture types? (3) How does soil legacy P relate to pasture management intensity, soil and geographic characteristics? and (4) What is the relationship between soil legacy P and aboveground plant tissue P concentration? Our results showed that three measurements of soil legacy P (total P, Mehlich-1, and Mehlich-3 extractable P representing labile P pools) varied substantially across the landscape. Spatial autoregressive models revealed that soil organic matter, pH, available Fe and Al, elevation, and pasture management intensity were crucial predictors for spatial patterns of soil P, although models were more reliable for predicting total P (68.9%) than labile P. Our analysis further demonstrated that total variance in soil legacy P was greater in IM than SN pastures, and intensified pasture management rescaled spatial patterns of soil legacy P. In particular, after controlling for sample size, soil P was extremely variable at small scales, with variance diminished as spatial scale increased. Our results suggest that broad pasture- or farm-level best management practices may be limited and less efficient, especially for more IM pastures. Rather, management to curtail soil legacy P and mitigate P loading and losses should be implemented at fine scales designed to target spatially distinct P hotspots across the landscape.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    PMMoV已广泛用于使严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)RNA的浓度正常化,流感,和呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)来解释废水中粪便含量的变化。PMMoV还用作废水流行病学(WBE)测试的内部RNA回收对照。虽然对WBE数据的解释可能有用,先前的研究表明,PMMoV浓度会受到废水各种物理化学特性的影响。实验室方法也有可能,特别是离心步骤中从沉淀中去除上清液的可变性可引起PMMoV可变性。本研究的目的是通过评估PMMoV浓度之间的关系来提高我们对PMMoV变异性的主要驱动因素的理解。废水的物理化学特性,以及浓缩废水样品的方法学方法。我们分析了从位于多伦多的三个污水处理厂(WWTP)的进水流中收集的24小时复合废水样本,安大略省,加拿大。从2021年3月初至2023年7月中旬开始,每周收集3至5次样品。流入流速用于将数据划分为潮湿和干燥天气条件。物理化学特性(例如,总悬浮固体(TSS),生物需氧量(BOD),碱度,电导率(EC),和氨(NH3)的原废水进行了测量,并对PMMoV进行了量化。在整个研究期间观察到PMMoV的时空变异性。在干燥的天气条件下,PMMoV浓度显着升高。多元线性回归分析表明,驱动PMMoV变异性的物理化学参数的数量和类型是特定于地点的,但总体BOD和碱度是最重要的预测因子。两种不同实验室方法之间的单个污水处理厂PMMoV浓度差异,使用一种方法,颗粒质量和TSS之间的弱相关性可能表明样品浓度和主观亚采样偏差的差异可能会改变病毒回收率并引入数据的变异性。
    PMMoV has been widely used to normalize the concentration of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to account for variations in the fecal content of wastewater. PMMoV is also used as an internal RNA recovery control for wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) tests. While potentially useful for the interpretation of WBE data, previous studies have suggested that PMMoV concentration can be affected by various physico-chemical characteristics of wastewater. There is also the possibility that laboratory methods, particularly the variability in centrifugation steps to remove supernatant from pellets can cause PMMoV variability. The goal of this study is to improve our understanding of the main drivers of PMMoV variability by assessing the relationship between PMMoV concentration, the physico-chemical characteristics of wastewater, and the methodological approach for concentrating wastewater samples. We analyzed 24-hour composite wastewater samples collected from the influent stream of three wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) located in the City of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Samples were collected 3 to 5 times per week starting from the beginning of March 2021 to mid-July 2023. The influent flow rate was used to partition the data into wet and dry weather conditions. Physico-chemical characteristics (e.g., total suspended solids (TSS), biological oxygen demand (BOD), alkalinity, electrical conductivity (EC), and ammonia (NH3)) of the raw wastewater were measured, and PMMoV was quantified. Spatial and temporal variability of PMMoV was observed throughout the study period. PMMoV concentration was significantly higher during dry weather conditions. Multiple linear regression analysis demonstrates that the number and type of physico-chemical parameters that drive PMMoV variability are site-specific, but overall BOD and alkalinity were the most important predictors. Differences in PMMoV concentration for a single WWTP between two different laboratory methods, along with a weak correlation between pellet mass and TSS using one method may indicate that differences in sample concentration and subjective subsampling bias could alter viral recovery and introduce variability to the data.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人类驱动的多重压力影响全球淡水生态系统,减少生物多样性,并影响生态系统功能和向人类社会提供的服务。多指标指数(MMI)是跟踪人为压力对淡水生态系统影响的合适工具,因为它们包含了各种生物指标,这些指标可响应不同生物组织级别的多种压力。然而,MMI的性能和适用性取决于其指标的选择和针对自然环境梯度的校准。在这项研究中,我们的目标是揭示i)合并基于功能特征的度量如何影响MMI的性能,ii)从人为压力效应中解开自然环境梯度如何影响MMI的性能,和iii)使用度量性能驱动方法开发的MMI的性能如何与使用索引性能驱动方法开发的MMI进行比较。我们于2018年在卡伦河流域(伊朗)的53个地点进行了一项实地调查,测量了非生物和生物变量。对于基于功能特征的度量,我们使用了15个大型无脊椎动物性状,并计算了群落加权平均性状值和功能多样性指数。我们使用随机森林建模来解释自然环境梯度对每个度量的影响。根据我们的结果,整合功能性状可显着提高MMI性能,并促进MMI的生态学解释。在大型无脊椎动物组合中自然发生的空间变异性及其与人为压力的混杂作用的意义上,大型无脊椎动物组合的分类和功能成分都与自然环境梯度强烈地共同变化,考虑到这些协变量提高了MMI的性能。最后,我们发现索引性能驱动的MMI在精度方面具有更高的性能,偏见,灵敏度,和响应性比度量性能驱动的MMI。
    Human-driven multiple pressures impact freshwater ecosystems worldwide, reducing biodiversity, and impacting ecosystem functioning and services provided to human societies. Multi-metric indices (MMIs) are suitable tools for tracking the effects of anthropogenic pressures on freshwater ecosystems because they incorporate various biological metrics responding to multiple pressures at different levels of biological organization. However, the performance and applicability of MMIs depend on their metrics\' selection and their calibration against natural environmental gradients. In this study, we aimed to unravel i) how incorporating functional trait-based metrics affects the performance of MMIs, ii) how disentangling the natural environmental gradients from anthropogenic pressures effects affects the performance of MMIs, and iii) how the performance of MMIs developed using a metric performance-driven approach compares with MMIs developed using an index performance-driven approach. We carried out a field survey measuring abiotic and biotic variables at 53 sites in the Karun River basin (Iran) in 2018. For functional trait-based metrics, we used 15 macroinvertebrate traits and calculated community-weighted mean trait values and functional diversity indices. We used random forest modeling to account for the effect of natural environmental gradients on each metric. Based on our results, incorporating functional traits increased the MMI performance significantly and facilitated ecological interpretation of MMIs. Both taxonomic and functional components of macroinvertebrate assemblages co-varied strongly with natural environmental gradients, and accounting for these covariations improved the performance of MMIs. Finally, we found that index performance-driven MMIs performed better in terms of precision, bias, sensitivity, and responsiveness than metric performance-driven MMIs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    传统的监测和绘图方法是费力的,贵,并且耗时,因为它们需要大量的数据,因此需要大量的采样和实验操作。因此,由于人们越来越担心重金属(HM)污染土壤和农产品的可能性,在设拉子(伊朗)东南部2300公顷的77个农田上进行了田间试验,以调查土壤和蔬菜中金属污染的来源,并对HMs的空间分布进行建模(铁,铁;锰,锰;铜,铜;锌,锌;镉,Cd;镍,Ni,和领导,铅)使用地理信息系统(GIS)和地统计学(普通克里格法,确定)方法并将结果与确定性方法(距离反加权,具有不同加权功率的IDW)。此外,一些生态和健康风险指数,包括污染指数(PI),内梅罗综合污染指数(NIPI),污染负荷指数(PLI),污染程度(Cdeg),改性污染度(mCd),土壤质量的PIaverage和PIvector,多元素污染(MEC),毒性概率(MERMQ),潜在生态指数(RI),基于摄入的总危害指数(THI)和总致癌风险指数(TCR),吸入,计算了成人和儿童的皮肤暴露途径,分别分析了非致癌和致癌风险。计算了上述HM的实验半变异函数和理论模型(即,指数,球形,高斯,和线性模型)进行拟合,以对其空间结构进行建模并研究最具代表性的模型。此外,主成分分析(PCA)和聚类分析(CA)用于识别土壤中HMs的来源。结果表明,IDW方法比OK方法更有效地估算土壤和植物中的性质和HMs含量。Pb和Ni的每日金属摄入量(DIM)值超过了其安全限值。此外,Cd是造成生态风险的主要元素。PIave和PIvector指数表明,研究区土壤质量不合适。根据mCd值,被归类为铜和镉超高污染的土壤,Zn和Pb极高,非常高,高,镍的污染程度非常低,Mn,Fe,分别。36%,60%和4%的采样点都很高,中等,和低风险水平,49%,21%和9%的毒性概率,分别。Ni的最大健康风险指数(HRI)值为20.42,对儿童具有极高的风险,成人和儿童的HI分别为0.22和1.55。与其他研究的HM相比,Pb和Cd的THI值最高,揭示了与接触这些金属相关的儿童可能的非癌症风险。对THI和TCR指数影响最大的暴露途径为摄入>吸入>皮肤。因此,摄取,作为暴露的主要途径,是对健康风险做出最大贡献的途径。PCA分析表明,Fe,Mn,Cu,镍可能来自天然来源,虽然铁似乎是由肥料控制的,铜主要来自农药,而Cd和Pb主要与人为污染有关,大气沉积,在城市土壤中也很棒。同时,锌主要来源于施肥。研究结果对于开发用于控制污染物分布以及监测和绘制土壤资源的质量和健康的修复方法至关重要。
    Conventional monitoring and mapping approaches are laborious, expensive, and time-consuming because they need a large number of data and consequently extensive sampling and experimental operations. Therefore, due to the growing concern about the potential of contamination of soils and agricultural products with heavy metals (HMs), a field experiment was conducted on 77 farm lands in an area of 2300 ha in the southeast of Shiraz (Iran) to investigate the source of metal contamination in the soils and vegetables and to model spatial distribution of HMs (iron, Fe; manganese, Mn; copper, Cu; zinc, Zn; cadmium, Cd; nickel, Ni, and lead, Pb) over the region using geographic information system (GIS) and geostatistical (Ordinary Kriging, OK) approaches and compare the results with deterministic approaches (Inverse Distance Weighting, IDW with different weighting power). Furthermore, some ecological and health risks indices including Pollution index (PI), Nemerow integrated pollution index (NIPI), pollution load index (PLI), degree of contamination (Cdeg), modified contamination degree (mCd), PIaverage and PIvector for soil quality, multi-element contamination (MEC), the probability of toxicity (MERMQ), the potential ecological index (RI), total hazard index (THI) and total carcinogenic risk index (TCR) based on ingestion, inhalation, and dermal exposure pathways for adults and children respectively for analyzing the noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were calculated. Experimental semivariogram of the mentioned HMs were calculated and theoretical models (i.e., exponential, spherical, Gaussian, and linear models) were fitted in order to model their spatial structures and to investigate the most representative models. Moreover, principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to identify sources of HMs in the soils. Results showed that IDW method was more efficient than the OK approach to estimate the properties and HMs contents in the soils and plants. The estimated daily intake of metals (DIM) values of Pb and Ni exceeded their safe limits. In addition, Cd was the main element responsible for ecological risk. The PIave and PIvector indices showed that soil quality in the study area is not suitable. According to mCd values, the soils classified as ultra-high contaminated for Cu and Cd, extremely high for Zn and Pb, very high, high, and very low degree of contamination for Ni, Mn, and Fe, respectively. 36, 60, and 4 % of the sampling sites had high, medium, and low risk levels with 49, 21, and 9 % probability of toxicity, respectively. The maximum health risk index (HRI) value of 20.42 with extremely high risk for children was obtained for Ni and the HI for adults and children were 0.22 and 1.55, respectively. The THI values of Pb and Cd were the highest compared to the other HMs studied, revealing a possible non-cancer risk in children associated with exposure to these metals. The routes of exposure with the greatest influence on the THI and TCR indices were in the order of ingestion > inhalation > dermal. Therefore, ingestion, as the main route of exposure, is the route of greatest contribution to health risks. PCA analysis revealed that Fe, Mn, Cu, and Ni may originate from natural sources, while Fe was appeared to be controlled by fertilizer, and Cu primarily coming from pesticide, while Cd and Pb were mainly associated with the anthropogenic contamination, atmospheric depositions, and terrific in the urban soils. While, Zn mainly originated from fertilization. Findings are vital for developing remediation approaches for controlling the contaminants distribution as well as for monitoring and mapping the quality and health of soil resources.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    2021年,通过同时采集天津市不同功能区4个地点的PM2.5样品,测定了8个含碳组分的含量。结果表明,有机碳(OC)浓度为3.7μg·m-3至4.4μg·m-3,元素碳(EC)浓度为1.6μg·m-3至1.7μg·m-3,中心城区OC浓度最高。EC浓度没有显著差异。PM2.5浓度呈周边城市>中心城市>周边地区的分布特征。采用OC/EC最小比值法估算PM2.5中的二次有机碳(SOC)浓度,结果表明,周边城市的二次污染较为突出,SOC占48.8%。各功能区碳亚组分间的相关性表现为外围区>中心区>周边区,EC1和OC2以及EC1和OC4之间的相关性最强。通过将碳组分浓度纳入正定矩阵分解(PMF)模型进行源解析,结果表明,道路扬尘源(9.7%-23.5%),燃煤源(10.2%-13.3%),柴油车尾气(12.6%-20.2%)和汽油车尾气(18.9%-38.8%)是天津市PM2.5碳组分的主要来源。不同功能区碳组分的污染源不同,中心城市及周边地区主要受汽油车尾气影响;周边城市受二次污染和柴油车尾气影响较为突出。
    The contents of eight carbonaceous subfractions were determined by simultaneously collecting PM2.5 samples from four sites in different functional areas of Tianjin in 2021. The results showed that the organic carbon (OC) concentration was 3.7 μg·m-3 to 4.4 μg·m-3, and the elemental carbon (EC) concentration was 1.6 μg·m-3 to 1.7 μg·m-3, with the highest OC concentration in the central urban area. There was no significant difference in EC concentration. The concentration of PM2.5 showed the distribution characteristics of the surrounding city>central city>peripheral area. The OC/EC minimum ratio method was used to estimate the concentrations of secondary organic carbon (SOC) in PM2.5, and the results showed that the secondary pollution was more prominent in the surrounding city, with SOC accounting for 48.8%. The correlation between carbon subcomponents in each functional area showed the characteristics of the peripheral area>central area>surrounding area, all showing the strongest correlation between EC1 and OC2 and EC1 and OC4. By including the carbon component concentration into the positive definite matrix factorization (PMF) model for source apportionment, the results showed that road dust sources(9.7%-23.5%), coal-combustion sources (10.2%-13.3%), diesel vehicle exhaust (12.6%-20.2%)and gasoline vehicle exhaust (18.9%-38.8%)were the main sources of carbon components in PM2.5 in Tianjin. The pollution sources of carbon components were different in different functional areas, with the central city and peripheral areas mainly affected by gasoline vehicle exhaust; the surrounding city was more prominently affected by the secondary pollution and diesel vehicle exhaust.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    疟疾在撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)的流行和肆虐的传染病中排名很高。负面影响,疾病负担,作为尼日利亚疟疾最脆弱群体的一部分,儿童和孕妇的风险更高。然而,疟疾的负担甚至不在空间和时间上。这项研究探讨了中等规模快速增长的城市阿库雷(Akure)五岁以下儿童(U5)疟疾患病率的空间变异性,尼日利亚使用基于模型的地统计建模(MBG)技术在100×100m网格上预测U5疟疾负担,参数估计采用蒙特卡罗最大似然法进行。非空间logistic回归模型表明,U5疟疾患病率受杀虫剂处理过的蚊帐的使用显着影响,窗户保护,和水源。此外,MBG模型显示,在某些地点,预测的AkureU5疟疾流行率大于35%,而我们能够使用超越概率模型确定U5流行率>10%的地方(即热点),这是政策制定的重要工具.该地图提供了基于地点的证据,说明了阿库尔U5疟疾的空间变异,并就加强干预措施对减轻阿库雷U5疟疾负担和改善城市健康至关重要的地方提出了方向,尼日利亚。
    Malaria ranks high among prevalent and ravaging infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The negative impacts, disease burden, and risk are higher among children and pregnant women as part of the most vulnerable groups to malaria in Nigeria. However, the burden of malaria is not even in space and time. This study explores the spatial variability of malaria prevalence among children under five years (U5) in medium-sized rapidly growing city of Akure, Nigeria using model-based geostatistical modeling (MBG) technique to predict U5 malaria burden at a 100 × 100 m grid, while the parameter estimation was done using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method. The non-spatial logistic regression model shows that U5 malaria prevalence is significantly influenced by the usage of insecticide-treated nets-ITNs, window protection, and water source. Furthermore, the MBG model shows predicted U5 malaria prevalence in Akure is greater than 35% at certain locations while we were able to ascertain places with U5 prevalence > 10% (i.e. hotspots) using exceedance probability modelling which is a vital tool for policy development. The map provides place-based evidence on the spatial variation of U5 malaria in Akure, and direction on where intensified interventions are crucial for the reduction of U5 malaria burden and improvement of urban health in Akure, Nigeria.
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  • 文章类型: Meta-Analysis
    这项研究解决了欧洲城市NH3测量的稀缺性和不同的监测协议,阻碍直接数据比较。来自芬兰的69个数据集,法国,意大利,西班牙,和英国不同的网站类型,包括工业(IND,8),流量(TR,12),城市(UB,22),郊区(SUB,12),和区域背景(RB,15),对这项研究进行了分析。其中,26个站点提供了5个或更多,用于时间序列分析的年份数据。尽管协议多种多样,需要未来的协调,站点的平均NH3浓度达到8.0±8.9μg/m3。不包括农业/农业热点(FAHs),IND和TR位点的浓度最高(4.7±3.2和4.5±1.0μg/m3),其次是UB,SUB,和RB位点(分别为3.3±1.5、2.7±1.3和1.0±0.3μg/m3)表明工业,交通,和其他城市来源是FAH地区以外的NH3的主要贡献者。当专门提到FAHs时,浓度范围为10.0±2.3至15.6±17.2μg/m3,在靠近农业和农业来源的RB地点达到最高浓度,而且,对于FAHs,平均而言,城市的NH3浓度梯度下降。时间趋势表明,超过一半的站点(18/26)观察到统计学上的显着趋势。大约50%的UB和TR位点呈下降趋势,而30%是增加的。荟萃分析显示,非FAHRB位点的下降趋势不明显。在FAHs中,以年3.51[0.45,6.57]%的速度显著上升。NH3浓度的季节性变化,城市地区受到周围排放的影响,特别是在FAHs中。Diel变化在城市监测点显示出不同的模式,所有白天浓度都较高,但根据主要排放源和气象模式,高峰时间会有所不同。这些结果为欧洲城市气相NH3浓度的时空格局提供了有价值的见解,为未来城市地区NH3污染控制基准做出贡献。
    This study addressed the scarcity of NH3 measurements in urban Europe and the diverse monitoring protocols, hindering direct data comparison. Sixty-nine datasets from Finland, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK across various site types, including industrial (IND, 8), traffic (TR, 12), urban (UB, 22), suburban (SUB, 12), and regional background (RB, 15), are analyzed to this study. Among these, 26 sites provided 5, or more, years of data for time series analysis. Despite varied protocols, necessitating future harmonization, the average NH3 concentration across sites reached 8.0 ± 8.9 μg/m3. Excluding farming/agricultural hotspots (FAHs), IND and TR sites had the highest concentrations (4.7 ± 3.2 and 4.5 ± 1.0 μg/m3), followed by UB, SUB, and RB sites (3.3 ± 1.5, 2.7 ± 1.3, and 1.0 ± 0.3 μg/m3, respectively) indicating that industrial, traffic, and other urban sources were primary contributors to NH3 outside FAH regions. When referring exclusively to the FAHs, concentrations ranged from 10.0 ± 2.3 to 15.6 ± 17.2 μg/m3, with the highest concentrations being reached in RB sites close to the farming and agricultural sources, and that, on average for FAHs there is a decreasing NH3 concentration gradient towards the city. Time trends showed that over half of the sites (18/26) observed statistically significant trends. Approximately 50 % of UB and TR sites showed a decreasing trend, while 30 % an increasing one. Meta-analysis revealed a small insignificant decreasing trend for non-FAH RB sites. In FAHs, there was a significant upward trend at a rate of 3.51[0.45,6.57]%/yr. Seasonal patterns of NH3 concentrations varied, with urban areas experiencing fluctuations influenced by surrounding emissions, particularly in FAHs. Diel variation showed differing patterns at urban monitoring sites, all with higher daytime concentrations, but with variations in peak times depending on major emission sources and meteorological patterns. These results offer valuable insights into the spatio-temporal patterns of gas-phase NH3 concentrations in urban Europe, contributing to future efforts in benchmarking NH3 pollution control in urban areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在天王星进行多次大气探测测量的主要动机是对动态过程的理解,这些动态过程可以创建和维持热结构的空间变化。composition,和水平风。但是起源问题-关于行星的形成和演化,原行星盘中的条件也是多探针探索的主要科学驱动力。热结构的空间变化揭示了大气如何从内部输送热量,测量大气中的成分变化是最终了解几种重元素的大量丰度的关键。我们回顾了天王星大气空间变异性的最新知识,我们概述了多探针探索将如何促进我们对这种可变性的理解。讨论了其他巨大的行星,两者都将对这些大气的多探针探索与天王星的公开问题联系起来,并证明天王星本身的多探针探索是如何被木星空间变化的经验教训所激发的,土星,还有海王星.我们概述了微型二级探针的最高测量值(这将补充更大的旗舰探针的更详细的调查),并提出克服任务设计等领域当前挑战和不确定性的途径,成本,轨迹,工具成熟度,电源,和时间线。
    A major motivation for multiple atmospheric probe measurements at Uranus is the understanding of dynamic processes that create and maintain spatial variation in thermal structure, composition, and horizontal winds. But origin questions-regarding the planet\'s formation and evolution, and conditions in the protoplanetary disk-are also major science drivers for multiprobe exploration. Spatial variation in thermal structure reveals how the atmosphere transports heat from the interior, and measuring compositional variability in the atmosphere is key to ultimately gaining an understanding of the bulk abundances of several heavy elements. We review the current knowledge of spatial variability in Uranus\' atmosphere, and we outline how multiple probe exploration would advance our understanding of this variability. The other giant planets are discussed, both to connect multiprobe exploration of those atmospheres to open questions at Uranus, and to demonstrate how multiprobe exploration of Uranus itself is motivated by lessons learned about the spatial variation at Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune. We outline the measurements of highest value from miniature secondary probes (which would complement more detailed investigation by a larger flagship probe), and present the path toward overcoming current challenges and uncertainties in areas including mission design, cost, trajectory, instrument maturity, power, and timeline.
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