背景:人类活动正在推动气候,土地覆盖,和人口变化(全球变化),并改变蛇咬伤的基线地理分布。全球变化对蛇和面临蛇咬风险的社区的相互作用影响知之甚少,限制预测和管理蛇咬伤风险未来变化的能力。
方法:在这项建模研究中,我们预测了全球变化将如何影响斯里兰卡的蛇咬伤事件,作为蛇咬伤发生率很高的模型系统。我们使用共享的社会经济途径(SSP)情景分析框架来整合以下领域的预测:气候变化(来自WorldClim的历史趋势加上协调区域降尺度实验-南亚存储库中的三个基础区域循环模型[RCM],具有两种排放途径[代表性浓度途径RCP4.5和RCP8.5]);土地覆盖变化(Dyna-CLUE模型);2010年1月1日至2050年12月31日的人口密度变化(基于世界网格人口数据)。预测在三种不同的发展情景下进行了整合:可持续性途径(SS1和没有进一步的排放),中间道路(SSP2和RCP4.5),和化石燃料途径(SSP5和RCP8.5)。对于SSP2和SSP5,我们嵌套了三个不同的RCM(CNRM-CM5,GFDL-CCM3和MPI-ESM-LR;平均值表示共识),以说明气候预测的变异性。数据用作机械模型的输入,该模型根据人蛇接触模式预测蛇咬伤的发生率。
结果:从2010年到2050年,在国家一级,斯里兰卡的envening发病率预计将下降12·0-23·0%,取决于场景。SSP5-RCP8.5的envening发病率下降率高于SSP1和SSP2-RCP4.5。在全国范围内,envenoming发病率的变化是异质的。在SS1中,预计人口增长的城市地区发病率下降,随着土地覆盖向人类阶级的转变。在SSP2-RCP4.5和SSP5-RCP8.5中,大多数地区预计发病率下降(SSP5-RCP8.5显示发病率下降幅度最大),而中部高地和北部等地区则呈局部增长。在模型中,随着人口的增长而减少,土地利用向人为类别的变化(潜在的职业危险因素转移),减少一些蛇的数量,可能是由于全球变暖和气候和栖息地适应性降低,一些蛇种的位移。
结论:预计未来几十年斯里兰卡蛇咬伤发生率总体下降,但与可持续发展目标明显冲突。因此,减轻蛇咬伤发生率的努力将需要考虑可持续性干预措施的潜在影响,特别是与气候和土地利用变化以及预计发病率增加的地区有关。鉴于全球变化,被忽视的热带病和与生物多样性有关的公共卫生问题,比如蛇咬伤,应由环境和卫生利益相关者共同管理。
背景:英国医学研究委员会。
BACKGROUND: Human activities are driving climate, land cover, and population change (global change), and shifting the baseline geographical distribution of snakebite. The interacting effects of global change on
snakes and communities at risk of snakebite are poorly understood, limiting capacity to anticipate and manage future changes in snakebite risk.
METHODS: In this modelling study, we projected how global change will affect snakebite envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka, as a model system that has a high incidence of snakebite. We used the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario analysis framework to integrate forecasts across the domains of: climate change (historical trend from WorldClim plus three underlying regional circulation models [RCMs] in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-South Asia repository, with two emissions pathways [representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5]); land cover change (Dyna-CLUE model); and human population density change (based on Gridded Population of the World data) from Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2050. Forecasts were integrated under three different development scenarios: a sustainability pathway (SSP1 and no further emissions), a middle-of-the-road pathway (SSP2 and RCP4.5), and a fossil-fuelled pathway (SSP5 and RCP8.5). For SSP2 and SSP5, we nested three different RCMs (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CCM3, and MPI-ESM-LR; mean averaged to represent consensus) to account for variability in climate predictions. Data were used as inputs to a mechanistic model that predicted snakebite envenoming incidence based on human-snake contact patterns.
RESULTS: From 2010 to 2050, at the national level, envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka was projected to decrease by 12·0-23·0%, depending on the scenario. The rate of decrease in envenoming incidence was higher in SSP5-RCP8.5 than in SSP1 and SSP2-RCP4.5. Change in envenoming incidence was heterogenous across the country. In SSP1, incidence decreased in urban areas expected to have population growth, and with land cover changes towards anthropised classes. In SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5, most areas were projected to have decreases in incidence (SSP5-RCP8.5 showing the largest area with incidence reductions), while areas such as the central highlands and the north of the country showed localised increases. In the model, decreases occurred with human population growth, land use change towards anthropised classes (potentially shifting occupational risk factors), and decreasing abundance of some snake species, potentially due to global warming and reduced climatic and habitat suitability, with displacement of some snake species.
CONCLUSIONS: Snakebite envenoming incidence was projected to decrease overall in the coming decades in Sri Lanka, but with an apparent emerging conflict with sustainability objectives. Therefore, efforts to mitigate snakebite envenoming incidence will need to consider the potential impacts of sustainability interventions, particularly related to climate and land use change and in areas where increases in incidence are projected. In view of global change, neglected tropical diseases and public health issues related to biodiversity, such as snakebite, should be managed collaboratively by both environment and health stakeholders.
BACKGROUND: UK Medical Research Council.