目的:研究全球胃癌的历史发病率和死亡率趋势以及到2035年预测的胃癌死亡率。
方法:发病率数据来自五大洲癌症发病率(CI5)卷I-XI,和死亡率数据来自世界卫生组织(WHO)死亡率数据库的最新更新.我们使用连接点回归分析来检查历史发病率和死亡率趋势,并使用R中的NORDPRED软件包来预测2035年按国家和性别划分的死亡人数和死亡率。
结果:2020年报告了超过1,089,000例新胃癌病例和769,000例相关死亡。从2003年到2012年,男性人群中胃癌发病率的年均变化百分比(AAPC),韩国,Japan,马耳他,加拿大,塞浦路斯,和瑞士呈增长趋势(P>0.05);女性人口中,加拿大[AAPC,1.2;(95%Cl,0.5-2),P<0.05]呈增加趋势;而韩国,厄瓜多尔,泰国,塞浦路斯呈上升趋势(P>0.05)。AAPC在2006年至2015年男性人群胃癌死亡率中,泰国[3.5(95%cl,1.6-5.4),P<0.05]呈增加趋势;马耳他岛,新西兰,土耳其,瑞士,和塞浦路斯有增加的趋势(P>0.05);在20-44岁的男性人口中,泰国[AAPC,3.4;(95%cl,1.3-5.4),P<0.05;挪威,新西兰,荷兰,斯洛伐克,法国,哥伦比亚,立陶宛,美国呈增加趋势(P>0.05)。据预测,到2035年,斯洛文尼亚和法国的女性死亡率将呈现上升趋势。据预测,以色列男性人口和智利的绝对死亡人数,法国,到2035年,加拿大女性人口将增加。
结论:在过去的十年中,胃癌的发病率和死亡率呈下降趋势;仍然有一些国家显示出增长的趋势,尤其是在45岁以下的人群中。尽管预计到2035年大多数国家的死亡率将下降,但由于人口增长,胃癌导致的绝对死亡人数可能会进一步增加。
OBJECTIVE: To study the historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035.
METHODS: Incidence data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-XI, and mortality data were obtained from the latest update of the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We used join-point regression analysis to examine historical incidence and mortality trends and used the package NORDPRED in R to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex.
RESULTS: More than 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer and 769,000 related deaths were reported in 2020. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence of gastric cancer from 2003 to 2012 among the male population, South Korea, Japan, Malta, Canada, Cyprus, and Switzerland showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the female population, Canada [AAPC, 1.2; (95%Cl, 0.5-2), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; and South Korea, Ecuador, Thailand, and Cyprus showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). AAPC in the mortality of gastric cancer from 2006 to 2015 among the male population, Thailand [3.5 (95%cl, 1.6-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Malta Island, New Zealand, Turkey, Switzerland, and Cyprus had an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the male population aged 20-44, Thailand [AAPC, 3.4; (95%cl, 1.3-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Norway, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Slovakia, France, Colombia, Lithuania, and the USA showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). It is predicted that the mortality rate in Slovenia and France\'s female population will show an increasing trend by 2035. It is predicted that the absolute number of deaths in the Israeli male population and in Chile, France, and Canada female population will increase by 2035.
CONCLUSIONS: In the past decade, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have shown a decreasing trend; however, there are still some countries showing an increasing trend, especially among populations younger than 45 years. Although mortality in most countries is predicted to decline by 2035, the absolute number of deaths due to gastric cancer may further increase due to population growth.