UNASSIGNED: To fight against the rising incidence of syphilis, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) launched the \"Syphilis No!\" Project (SNP), with specific resources funded by a parliamentary amendment. Then, in 2018, a national rapid response started to be implemented on the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS, Sistema Único de Saúde) in two strategic lines (1) to reinforce SUS\'s universal actions and (2) to implement specific ones to 100 municipalities chosen by the MoH as priorities for syphilis congenital response. In 2015, such localities represented 6895% of congenital syphilis cases in Brazil. In this context, SNP has implemented actions to strengthen epidemiological surveillance of acquired syphilis and congenital syphilis by instituting an integrated and collaborative response through health services networks and reinforcing interstate relations.
UNASSIGNED: A quasi-experimental study using time series analysis was conducted to assess immediate impacts and changes to the trend in national congenital syphilis before and after the project, from September 2016 to December 2019. Data were assessed considering rates of congenital syphilis per 1,000 live births in all priority municipalities (n=100) covered by the project and in non-priority municipalities (n=5,470) from all five macro-regions of Brazil.
UNASSIGNED: Priority municipalities showed a greater reduction (change in trend) in comparison to non-priority. The linear regression model revealed trend changes after the intervention, with both groups of municipalities showing a drop in the average monthly number of cases per 1,000 live births, with a reduction of -0·21 (CI 95% -0·33 to -0·09; p=0·0011) in priority municipalities and of -0·10 (CI 95% -0.19 to -0.02; p=0·0216) in non-priority municipalities.
UNASSIGNED: The study using ITS provides important evidence on the direction, timing, and magnitude of the effects of interventions introduced as part of the SNP on congenital syphilis in Brazil. Our results suggest that the Syphilis No! Project influenced the trends of congenital syphilis in Brazil from 2018, with higher reductions achieved in the priority municipalities.
UNASSIGNED: The research is funded by a grant to the Syphilis No! Project from Brazilian Ministry of Health (Project Number: 54/2017). The funders had no role in study design, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

OBJECTIVE: Bariatric surgery has shown reductions in overactive bladder (OAB) symptoms; however, the impacts on OAB treatment is unknown. The goal of our study is to evaluate the impact of bariatric surgery on OAB medication utilization.
METHODS: We used IBM® MarketScan® commercial databases from 2005 to 2018. We included patients aged  ≥ 18 years with 360 days of continuous enrollment before and after bariatric surgery (Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass and Sleeve Gastrectomy) with at least one fill of an OAB medication in the 360 days prior to bariatric surgery. We evaluated all included patients and stratified by surgery type and patient sex. Segmented regression analyses were used to assess the proportion of patients on OAB medications before and after bariatric surgery. We replicated our findings using hip or knee replacement surgery as a negative control.
RESULTS: Among the included patients (n = 3069), 92.2% were females, 58.6% underwent Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass. Immediately following bariatric surgery, the proportion of patients treated with an OAB medication reduced from 34.8 to 14.1% (p < 0.001) resulting in a 59.5% relative reduction. Patients who underwent Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass vs. Sleeve Gastrectomy (63.8% vs. 55.1%) relative reduction (p = 0.009)) and females versus males [62.3% vs. 52.9% relative reduction (p < 0.001)] had a more pronounced reduction in OAB medication use. There was slight decrease in OAB medication use in the negative control analysis.
CONCLUSIONS: A reduction in OAB medication use following bariatric surgery may be associated with a reduction in OAB symptoms suggesting an additional benefit of bariatric surgery.

BACKGROUND: After implementing a nationwide harm reduction program in 2006, a dramatic decline in the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among people with injection drug use (IDU) was observed in Taiwan. The harm reduction program might have sent out the message discouraging the choice of IDU among illicit drug users in early stage. Based on the yearly first-time offense rates from 2001 to 2017, this study aimed to examine (1) whether the nationwide implementation of the harm reduction program in 2006 led to changes in first-time offenders\' use of heroin; (2) whether the intervention had a similar effect on the use of other illicit drugs; and (3) whether the effect of the intervention was limited to the first-time offenders of young age groups.
METHODS: Yearly first-time illicit-drug offense rates from 2001 to 2017 in Taiwan were derived from two national databases for drug arrests that were verified using urine tests: the Criminal Record Processing System on Schedule I/II Drugs and the Administrative Penalty System for Schedule III/IV Substances. A hierarchy of mutually exclusive categories of drug uses was defined by the drug with the highest schedule level among those tested positive in an arrest. Segmented regression analyses of interrupted time series were used to test for the impact of the 2006 intervention.
RESULTS: There was a decrease of 22.37 per 100,000 in the rate for heroin but no detectable level changes in that for methamphetamine or ecstasy after the 2006 intervention in Taiwan. There were baseline decreasing trends in the first-time offense rate from 2001 to 2017 for heroin and ecstasy and an increasing trend for methamphetamine, with the slopes not altered by the 2006 intervention. The postintervention decrease in the first-time offense rate for heroin was detectable among offenders less than 40 years old.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a diffusion effect of the 2006 intervention on decreasing heroin use among young offenders and have policy implications for better prevention and treatment for different age groups.

Interrupted time-series (ITS) designs are a robust and increasingly popular non-randomized study design for strong causal inference in the evaluation of public health interventions. One of the most common techniques for model parameterization in the analysis of ITS designs is segmented regression, which uses a series of indicators and linear terms to represent the level and trend of the time-series before and after an intervention. In this article, we highlight an important error often presented in tutorials and published peer-reviewed papers using segmented regression parameterization for the analyses of ITS designs. We show that researchers cannot simply use the product between their calendar time variable and the indicator variable indicating pre- versus post-intervention time periods to represent the post-intervention linear segment. If researchers use this often-presented parameterization, they will get an erroneous result for the level change in their time-series. We show that researchers must take care to use the product between their intervention variable and the time elapsed since the start of the intervention, rather than the time since the beginning of their study. Thus, the second linear segment of the time-series indexing the post-intervention level and trend should be zero before intervention implementation and begin by counting from zero, rather than counting from the time elapsed since the beginning of the study. We hope that this article can clarify segmented regression parameterization for the analysis of ITS designs and help researchers avoid confusing and erroneous results in the level changes of their time-series.

UNASSIGNED: The protocol for early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) is effective for improving both the costs and outcomes of septicemia treatment, including a significant reduction in case fatality. However, this complicated protocol may have a downside. Furthermore, the Joint Taiwan Critical Care Medicine Committee has launched a nationwide educational program after the publication of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) to improve the overall survival rate from septicemia in the emergency care system of Taiwan.
UNASSIGNED: To assess the impact of the EGDT protocol and SSC education programs on island-wide septicemia-related emergency department (ED) visits.
UNASSIGNED: Segmented regression techniques were utilized to assess the differences in annual rates and changes in septicemia-related ED visits between 1998 and 2012. We considered annual incidence of two medical comorbidities as potential confounders: metastatic malignant neoplasms and malignant neoplasms of the lymphatic and hematopoietic tissues.
UNASSIGNED: The EGDT protocol was associated with decreased septicemia-related ED visits in 2002 (level change; p < 0.001), while the SSC education program led to a slight increase in septicemia-related ED visits in 2007 (slope change; p < 0.001). For the EGDT protocol, the number of patient visits decreased by 32.9% after the protocol was implemented in 2002 compared with the expected number without the intervention. For the SSC education program, the number of patient visits increased by 20.2% (compared with the predicted number) in 2007 after the education program was implemented.
UNASSIGNED: The EGDT protocol and SSC education program were associated with significant immediate changes and lagged intervention effects on island-wide septicemia-related ED visits.

Studies in countries with high immunisation coverage suggest that the re-emergence of pertussis may be caused by a decreased duration of protection resulting from the replacement of whole-cell pertussis vaccine (WPV) with the acellular pertussis vaccine (APV). In China, WPV was introduced in 1978. The pertussis vaccination schedule advanced from an all-WPV schedule (1978-2007), to a mixed WPV/APV schedule (2008-2009), then to an all-APV schedule (2010-2016). Increases in the incidence of pertussis have been reported in recent years in Jinan and other cities in China. However, there have been few Chinese-population-based studies focused on the impact of schedule changes. We obtained annual pertussis incidences from 1956 to 2016 from the Jinan Notifiable Conditions Database. We used interrupted time series and segmented regression analyses to assess changes in pertussis incidence at the beginning of each year, and average annual changes during the intervention. Pertussis incidence decreased by 1.11 cases per 100 000 population (P = 0.743) immediately following WPV introduction in 1978 and declined significantly by 1.21 cases per 100 000 population per year (P < 0.0001) between 1978 and 2001. Immediately after APV replaced the fourth dose of WPV in 2008, the second and third doses in 2009, then replaced all four doses in 2010, pertussis incidence declined by 1.98, 1.98 and 1.08 cases per 100 000 population, respectively. However, the results were not statistically significant. There were significant increasing trends in pertussis incidence after APV replacements: 1.63, 1.77 and 1.78 cases/year in 2008-2016, 2009-2016 and 2010-2016, respectively. Our study shows that the impact of an all-WPV schedule may be less than the impacts of the sequential WPV/APV schedules. The short-term impact of APV was better than that of WPV; however, the duration of APV-induced protection was not ideal. The impact and duration of protective immunity resulting from APVs produced in China need further evaluation. Further research on the effectiveness of pertussis vaccination programme in Jinan, China is also necessary.

BACKGROUND: Syphilis infection has been associated with an increased risk of HIV infection during pregnancy which poses greater risk for maternal mortality, and antenatal syphilis point-of-care (POC) testing has been introduced to improve maternal and child health outcomes. There is limited evidence on the impact of syphilis POC testing on maternal outcomes in high HIV prevalent settings. We used syphilis POC testing as a model to evaluate the impact of POC diagnostics on the improvement of maternal mortality in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
METHODS: We extracted 132 monthly data points on the number of maternal deaths in facilities and number of live births in facilities for 12 tertiary healthcare facilities in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa from 2004 to 2014 from District Health Information System (DHIS) health facility archived. We employed segmented Poisson regression analysis of interrupted time series to assess the impact of the exposure on maternal mortality ratio (MMR) before and after the implementation of antenatal syphilis POC testing. We processed and analyzed data using Stata Statistical Software: Release 13. (Stata, Corp LP, College Station, TX, USA).
RESULTS: The provincial average annual maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was estimated at 176.09 ± 43.92 ranging from a minimum of 68.48 to maximum of 225.49 per 100,000 live births. The data comprised 36 temporal points before the introduction of syphilis POC test exposure and 84 after the introduction in primary health care clinics in KZN. The average annual MMR for KZN from 2004 to 2014 was estimated at 176.09 ± 43.92. A decrease in MMR level was observed during 2008 after syphilis POC test implementation, followed by a rise during 2009. Analysis of the MMR trend estimates a significant 1.5% increase in MMR trends during the period before implementation and 1.3% increase after implementation of syphilis POC testing (p < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: Although our finding suggests a brief reduction in the MMR trend after the implementation of antenatal syphilis POC testing, a continued increase in syphilis rates is seen in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study used one of the most powerful quasi-experimental research methods, segmented Poisson regression analysis of interrupted time series to model the impact of syphilis POC on maternal outcome. The study finding requires confirmation by use of more rigorous primary study design.

Zambia has been using output-based approaches for over two decades to finance whole or part of the public health system. Between 1996 and 2006, performance-based contracting (PBC) was implemented countrywide with the Central Board of Health (CBoH) as the provider of health services. This study reviews the association between PBC and equity of access to maternal health services in Zambia between 1996 and 2006. A comprehensive document review was undertaken to evaluate the implementation process, followed by a trend analysis of health expenditure at district level, and a segmented regression analysis of data on antenatal care (ANC) and deliveries at health facilities that was obtained from five demographic and health survey datasets (1992, 1996, 2002, 2007 and 2014). The results show that PBC was anchored by high-level political support, an overarching policy and legal framework, and collective planning and implementation with all key stakeholders. Decentralization of health service provision was also an enabling factor. ANC coverage increased in both the lower and upper wealth quintiles during the PBC era, followed by a declining trend after the PBC era in both quintiles. Further, the percentage of women delivering at health facilities increased during the PBC era, particularly in rural areas and among the poor. The positive trend continued after the PBC era with similar patterns in both lower and upper wealth quintiles. Despite these gains, per capita health expenditure at district level declined during the PBC era, with the situation worsening after the PBC era. The study concludes that a nationwide PBC approach can contribute to improved equity of access to maternal health services and that PBC is a cost-efficient and sustainable policy reform. The study calls for policymakers to comprehensively evaluate the impact of health system reforms before terminating them.

BACKGROUND: On July 1st, 2015, Hong Kong became the first city in Asia to implement a policy regulating sulfur dioxide (SO2) in shipping emissions. We conducted an accountability study assessing the improvement in ambient air quality and estimating the effect on health outcomes of the policy.
METHODS: We used interrupted time series (ITS) with segmented regression to identify any change in ambient concentrations of SO2 in contrast to other ambient pollutants (particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3)) at 10 monitoring stations in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2017. We validated these findings using cumulative sum control (CUSUM) charts. We used a validated risk assessment model to estimate effects of changes in air quality on death for natural causes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.
RESULTS: Mean monthly concentrations of SO2 fell abruptly at the monitoring station closest to the main shipping port (Kwai Chung (KC)) by -10.0 μgm3 p-value = 0.0004, but not elsewhere. No such changes were evident for the other pollutants (PM10, NO2, O3). CUSUM charts confirmed a change in July 2015. Estimated deaths avoided per year as a result of the policy were 379, 72, 30 for all natural causes, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the shipping emission policy in Hong Kong successfully reduced ambient SO2, with the potential to reduce mortality. However, to gain full benefits, restrictions on shipping emissions need to be implemented throughout the region.

BACKGROUND: Problems of irrational antibiotic use by prescribers are ongoing and have escalated following reductions in the cost of essential drugs policy. In an attempt to improve prescribing practices for village doctors and rational use of essential drugs, a program designed to audit and monitor drug use was established. However, the effects of the program to control antibiotic resistance and changing the village doctors\' prescribing behaviors remain largely unknown. This study measured the effect of the program on levels of antibiotic use.
METHODS: Data was collected covering a 22-month period, before, during and after the program was implemented in rural clinics. Segmented regression analysis with interrupted time series (ITS) data was used to examine whether there had been a significant interaction with the onset of the program in September 2011 and levels of antibiotic use from November 2010 to August 2012. Both serial and 12-month lag autocorrelations were controlled for.
RESULTS: A noticeable drop about 6.15% per month (95% CI: -13.36%; 1.06%, P = 0.089) for the antibiotic use in outpatients, which is lower of effect size assuming that the program has the immediate impact of the program were captured for the immediate effect of the program. Meanwhile, levels of antibiotic use would have continued to decrease by 1.12% per month (P = 0.034) as they did in the absence of the program.
CONCLUSIONS: The central finding was that the prescription audit and feedback program was associated with significant decreases (P = 0.034) in antibiotic use after its implementation.