Scientific consensus

科学共识
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    文章类型: Journal Article
    生物学和生命科学文献中的同行评审期刊发表了代表人类生命始于受精的生物学观点的文章(“受精观点”)。由于这些陈述通常是在没有解释或引用的情况下提供的,受精的观点似乎没有受到编辑的质疑,审稿人,和对科学期刊有贡献的作者。然而,美国人对受精观点是“哲学或宗教信仰”(45%)还是“生物学和科学事实”(46%)存在分歧,只有38%的美国人认为受精是人类生活的起点。在两项研究中,探讨了专家对此事的看法,受精观点是公共卫生和IVF专业人士最受欢迎的观点.由于最近的一项研究表明,80%的美国人认为生物学家是最有资格确定人类生命何时开始的群体,对生物学专家进行了调查,以提供一个新的视角来研究专家对这一问题的看法。来自世界各地1,058个学术机构的生物学家评估了人类生命何时开始的调查项目,总的来说,96%(5577个中的5337个)肯定了施肥的看法。科学传播领域的创始原则表明,科学家有道德和专业义务告知美国人,以及世界各地的人们,关于科学发展,这样公众就可以被授权做出与现有最佳信息相一致的生活决策。鉴于这种观点-以及最近的一项研究发现,大多数美国人认为他们应该知道人类的生命何时开始,以便做出明智的生殖决定-科学传播者应该努力提高对受精观点的科学意识水平,因为它是人类生命何时开始的主要生物学观点。
    Peer-reviewed journals in the biological and life sciences literature have published articles that represent the biological view that a human\'s life begins at fertilization (\"the fertilization view\"). As those statements are typically offered without explanation or citation, the fertilization view seems to be uncontested by the editors, reviewers, and authors who contribute to scientific journals. However, Americans are split on whether the fertilization view is a \"philosophical or religious belief\" (45%) or a \"biological and scientific fact\" (46%), and only 38% of Americans view fertilization as the starting point of a human\'s life. In the two studies that explored experts\' views on the matter, the fertilization view was the most popular perspective held by public health and IVF professionals. Since a recent study suggested that 80% of Americans view biologists as the group most qualified to determine when a human\'s life begins, experts in biology were surveyed to provide a new perspective to the literature on experts\' views on this matter. Biologists from 1,058 academic institutions around the world assessed survey items on when a human\'s life begins and, overall, 96% (5337 out of 5577) affirmed the fertilization view. The founding principles of the field Science Communication suggest that scientists have an ethical and professional obligation to inform Americans, as well as people around the world, about scientific developments so members of the public can be empowered to make life decisions that are consistent with the best information available. Given that perspective-and a recent study\'s finding that a majority of Americans believe they deserve to know when a human\'s life begins in order to make informed reproductive decisions-science communicators should work to increase the level of science awareness on the fertilization view, as it stands alone as the leading biological perspective on when a human\'s life begins.
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  • 文章类型: Meta-Analysis
    科学共识交流是最有希望的干预措施之一,可以最大程度地减少专家与公众对科学事实的信念之间的差距。有,然而,讨论其在改变对有争议的科学主题的共识看法和信念方面的有效性。这种预先注册的荟萃分析评估了传达科学共识的存在对感知的科学共识和对科学事实的信念的影响。结合43个关于气候变化的实验,转基因食品,接种疫苗,我们发现,单一接触共识信息对感知的科学共识(g=0.55)和对科学事实的信念(g=0.12)有积极影响.共识交流对气候变化和转基因食品产生了非常相似的影响,而关于疫苗接种的实验数量很少,因此无法得出有关该主题的结论。虽然这些影响很小,传达科学共识似乎是改变有关有争议的科学主题的事实信念的有效方法。
    Scientific-consensus communication is among the most promising interventions to minimize the gap between experts\' and the public\'s belief in scientific facts. There is, however, discussion about its effectiveness in changing consensus perceptions and beliefs about contested science topics. This preregistered meta-analysis assessed the effects of communicating the existence of scientific consensus on perceived scientific consensus and belief in scientific facts. Combining 43 experiments about climate change, genetically modified food, and vaccination, we found that a single exposure to consensus messaging had a positive effect on perceived scientific consensus (g = 0.55) and on belief in scientific facts (g = 0.12). Consensus communication yielded very similar effects for climate change and genetically modified food, whereas the low number of experiments about vaccination prevented conclusions regarding this topic. Although these effects are small, communicating scientific consensus appears to be an effective way to change factual beliefs about contested science topics.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们将政策中证据的混乱翻译作为“不舒服的科学”的网站进行探索。借鉴约翰·罗的工作,我们将证据视为其状况的“流体对象”,还颁布了与实践腹地有关的法律。与数学建模师和其他参与英国新冠肺炎回应的科学家的定性访谈账户合作,我们追踪模型作为证据的表现。我们的出发点是在公开宣布英国第二次国家封锁时引发争议的时刻,特别是,为支持这一政策决定,提出了预计的COVID-19每日死亡人数。我们对这一事件进行反思,以追踪面对不确定性时“科学共识”的混乱翻译。科学家之间的努力,以实现基于证据的期望,并管理模型在政策中的麻烦翻译,包括通过“科学共识”,可以扩展不舒服的科学的不容易,而不是清理或关闭它。我们认为,循证政策项目不需要技术管理或维修,但是我们需要完全不同地思考。
    We explore messy translations of evidence in policy as a site of \'uncomfortable science\'. Drawing on the work of John Law, we follow evidence as a \'fluid object\' of its situation, also enacted in relation to a hinterland of practices. Working with the qualitative interview accounts of mathematical modellers and other scientists engaged in the UK COVID-19 response, we trace how models perform as evidence. Our point of departure is a moment of controversy in the public announcement of second national lockdown in the UK, and specifically, the projected daily deaths from COVID-19 presented in support of this policy decision. We reflect on this event to trace the messy translations of \"scientific consensus\" in the face of uncertainty. Efforts among scientists to realise evidence-based expectation and to manage the troubled translations of models in policy, including via \"scientific consensus\", can extend the dis-ease of uncomfortable science rather than clean it up or close it down. We argue that the project of evidence-based policy is not so much in need of technical management or repair, but that we need to be thinking altogether differently.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Some people hold beliefs that are opposed to overwhelming scientific evidence. Such misperceptions can be harmful to both personal and societal well-being. Communicating scientific consensus has been found to be effective in eliciting scientifically accurate beliefs, but it is unclear whether it is also effective in correcting false beliefs. Here, we show that a strategy that boosts people\'s understanding of and ability to identify scientific consensus can help to correct misperceptions. In three experiments with more than 1,500 U.S. adults who held false beliefs, participants first learned the value of scientific consensus and how to identify it. Subsequently, they read a news article with information about a scientific consensus opposing their beliefs. We found strong evidence that in the domain of genetically engineered food, this two-step communication strategy was more successful in correcting misperceptions than merely communicating scientific consensus. The data suggest that the current approach may not work for misperceptions about climate change.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于说服个人在气候变化问题上持有科学支持立场的共识信息的有效性,存在不一致的发现。在这个实验中,我们测试了共识信息对怀疑论者气候信念和态度的影响,并调查了在共识信息暴露之前预先测试初始气候信念和态度的决定如何影响结果.我们发现,尽管共识信息导致个人报告更高的科学协议估计,对关键变量的总体影响可能是研究设计的产物;共识信息仅在信息暴露前后测量时影响气候态度和信念。在没有预测试的情况下,我们没有观察到共识信息对气候结果的显著总体影响.这些结果凸显了共识消息传递策略在减少政治两极分化方面的局限性,以及模仿现实环境的实验设计的重要性。
    在线版本包含补充材料,可在10.1007/s10584-021-03200-2获得。
    There are inconsistent findings concerning the efficacy of consensus messages to persuade individuals to hold scientifically supported positions on climate change. In this experiment, we tested the impact of consensus messages on skeptics\' climate beliefs and attitudes and investigated how the decision to pretest initial climate beliefs and attitudes prior to consensus message exposure may influence results. We found that although consensus messages led individuals to report higher scientific agreement estimates, total effects on key variables were likely an artifact of study design; consensus messages only affected climate attitudes and beliefs when they were measured both before and after message exposure. In the absence of a pretest, we did not observe significant total effects of consensus messages on climate outcomes. These results highlight the limitations of consensus messaging strategies at reducing political polarization and the importance of experimental designs that mimic real-world contexts.
    UNASSIGNED: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03200-2.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近年来,关于网关信念模型(GBM)的实证研究蓬勃发展。该模型提供了一个双过程说明,如何响应有关科学协议的规范性线索而发生态度变化。大量的相关和实验证据已经出现,记录了交流科学共识对全球变暖的积极直接和间接影响。我回顾了最近的奖学金,并认为下一代关于GBM的研究应该侧重于更好地证明在理论和实证层面上纳入主持人的合理性,明确地操纵动机来处理共识信息,建立共识线索在竞争信息网络中的运作模型,并使用因果链实验在现场设置中测试模型。
    Empirical research on the Gateway Belief Model (GBM) has flourished in recent years. The model offers a dual-process account of how attitude change happens in response to normative cues about scientific agreement. A plethora of correlational and experimental evidence has emerged documenting the positive direct and indirect effects of communicating the scientific consensus on global warming. I review recent scholarship and argue that the next generation of research on the GBM should focus on better justifying the inclusion of moderators on both a theoretical and empirical level, explicitly manipulate motivations to process the consensus message, model how consensus cues operate in competitive information networks and test the model in field settings using causal chain experiments.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    不是气候变化否认者的大学和大学生物学专业可能还没有意识到关于气候变化的科学共识的程度,也没有准备好与他人交流气候科学。这项研究报告了一个接受生物学专业的气候变化人群,美国东北部的私立研究型大学。我们的学生倾向于大大低估围绕气候变化的科学共识的程度,只是适度地担心气候变化,并且对他们就气候变化的科学共识状态进行交流的能力不自信。在介绍了在生物学研究文献课程的背景下证实和量化关于气候变化的科学共识的学术文献之后,我们的学生对气候变化共识的估计显着增加,他们的估计更准确。此外,他们变得更加担心气候变化,并且对与他人交流科学共识的能力更加自信。这些结果符合网关信念模型,将对气候变化的科学共识定位为接受和采取行动的重要驱动力。
    College and university biology majors who are not climate change deniers may yet be unaware of the degree of scientific consensus on climate change and unprepared to communicate about climate science to others. This study reports on a population of climate change accepting biology majors at a large, private research university in the American northeast. Our students tended to greatly underestimate the degree of scientific consensus around climate change, to be only moderately worried about climate change, and to be unconfident in their ability to communicate about the state of the scientific consensus around climate change. After an introduction to the scholarly literature that substantiates and quantifies the scientific consensus on climate change in the context of a course on biological research literature, our students showed significant increases in their estimates of the consensus on climate change, and their estimates were more accurate. Additionally, they became more worried about climate change as well as more confident in their ability to communicate about the scientific consensus to others. These results are in line with the Gateway Belief Model, which positions perception of scientific agreement on climate change as an important driver of acceptance and motivation toward action.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    研究表明,身体活动可以作为增加认知功能的干预措施。然而,关于身体活动的认知效应存在着相互竞争的观点,目前尚不清楚该领域的研究人员之间存在什么程度的共识。本研究的目的有两个:第一,通过关注身体活动与认知功能之间的关系来量化科学共识。其次,调查公众和科学家对这一主题的科学文本的解释之间是否存在差距。进行了两阶段研究,第一阶段包括75名科学家,第二阶段包括15名非科学家。要求参与者根据对体育锻炼对认知功能的影响的认可对文章摘要进行分类。结果表明,有76.1%的共识认为体育锻炼具有积极的认知作用。科学家和非科学家的分类之间存在一致的关联,这表明两组人对摘要的感知方式相似。一起来看,这项研究提供了第一个分析,以评估近二十年研究中的共识水平。目前的数据可用于进一步的研究和实践。
    Research suggests that physical activity can be used as an intervention to increase cognitive function. Yet, there are competing views on the cognitive effects of physical activity and it is not clear what level of consensus exists among researchers in the field. The purpose of this study was two-fold: Firstly, to quantify the scientific consensus by focusing on the relationship between physical activity and cognitive function. Secondly, to investigate if there is a gap between the public\'s and scientists\' interpretations of scientific texts on this topic. A two-phase study was performed by including 75 scientists in the first phase and 15 non-scientists in the second phase. Participants were asked to categorize article abstracts in terms of endorsement of the effect of physical activity on cognitive function. Results indicated that there was a 76.1% consensus that physical activity has positive cognitive effects. There was a consistent association between scientists\' and non-scientists\' categorizations, suggesting that both groups perceived abstracts in a similar fashion. Taken together, this study provides the first analysis of its kind to evaluate the level of consensus in almost two decades of research. The present data can be used to inform further research and practice.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    有效应对气候变化需要人类个体和集体行为和决策的重大改变。然而,鉴于(气候)科学日益政治化,以及既得利益集团试图通过有组织的“虚假信息运动”破坏关于气候变化的科学共识,“事实证明,在整个政治范围内有效地与公众接触这一问题的方法是困难的。越来越多的研究表明,抵制科学政治化的一种有希望的方法是在专家之间就人为造成的气候变化的现实传达高水平的规范性协议(“共识”)。然而,许多先前研究气候变化背景下的公众舆论动态的研究是在外部有效性有限的条件下完成的。此外,迄今为止,还没有研究研究如何保护公众免受有关气候变化的有影响力的错误信息的传播。当前的研究通过探索人们如何在极化的信息环境中评估和处理共识线索来弥合这种鸿沟。此外,提供的证据表明,有可能先发制人地保护(“接种”)公众对气候变化的态度,以防止现实世界的错误信息。
    Effectively addressing climate change requires significant changes in individual and collective human behavior and decision-making. Yet, in light of the increasing politicization of (climate) science, and the attempts of vested-interest groups to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change through organized \"disinformation campaigns,\" identifying ways to effectively engage with the public about the issue across the political spectrum has proven difficult. A growing body of research suggests that one promising way to counteract the politicization of science is to convey the high level of normative agreement (\"consensus\") among experts about the reality of human-caused climate change. Yet, much prior research examining public opinion dynamics in the context of climate change has done so under conditions with limited external validity. Moreover, no research to date has examined how to protect the public from the spread of influential misinformation about climate change. The current research bridges this divide by exploring how people evaluate and process consensus cues in a polarized information environment. Furthermore, evidence is provided that it is possible to pre-emptively protect (\"inoculate\") public attitudes about climate change against real-world misinformation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Climate change is an urgent global issue, with demands for personal, collective, and governmental action. Although a large body of research has investigated the influence of communication on public engagement with climate change, few studies have investigated the role of interpersonal discussion. Here we use panel data with 2 time points to investigate the role of climate conversations in shaping beliefs and feelings about global warming. We find evidence of reciprocal causality. That is, discussing global warming with friends and family leads people to learn influential facts, such as the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is happening. In turn, stronger perceptions of scientific agreement increase beliefs that climate change is happening and human-caused, as well as worry about climate change. When assessing the reverse causal direction, we find that knowing the scientific consensus further leads to increases in global warming discussion. These findings suggest that climate conversations with friends and family enter people into a proclimate social feedback loop.
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