BACKGROUND: Detection of pathogen-related clusters within a hospital is key to early intervention to prevent onward transmission. Various automated surveillance methods for outbreak detection have been implemented in hospital settings. However, direct comparison is difficult due to heterogenicity of data sources and methodologies. In the hospital setting, we assess the performance of three different methods for identifying microbiological clusters when applied to various pathogens with distinct occurrence patterns.
METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we use WHONET-SaTScan, CLAR (CLuster AleRt system) and our currently used percentile-based system (P75) for the means of cluster detection. The three methods are applied to the same data curated from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2021 from a tertiary care hospital. We show the results for the following case studies: the introduction of a new pathogen with subsequent endemicity, an endemic species, rising levels of an endemic organism, and a sporadically occurring species.
RESULTS: All three cluster detection methods showed congruence only in endemic organisms. However, there was a paucity of alerts from WHONET-SaTScan (n = 9) compared to CLAR (n = 319) and the P75 system (n = 472). WHONET-SaTScan did not pick up smaller variations in baseline numbers of endemic organisms as well as sporadic organisms as compared to CLAR and the P75 system. CLAR and the P75 system revealed congruence in alerts for both endemic and sporadic organisms.
CONCLUSIONS: Use of statistically based automated cluster alert systems (such as CLAR and WHONET-Satscan) are comparable to rule-based alert systems only for endemic pathogens. For sporadic pathogens WHONET-SaTScan returned fewer alerts compared to rule-based alert systems. Further work is required regarding clinical relevance, timelines of cluster alerts and implementation.

Understanding the distribution of tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL) in different periods enables the adequate conduction of actions at the public health level. The present study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of TL incidence rates in the municipalities of Brazil and identifies priority areas from 2001 to 2020. Notifications of new cases were analyzed employing space-time scan statistics and Local Indicators of Spatial Association. As TL incidence rates presented a downward trend in most Brazilian municipalities, spatiotemporal clusters of high relative risks (RR) were more frequent in the first decade of the series. There was a concentration of those clusters in the North and Northeast regions, mainly in the Legal Amazon area. More recent high-RR areas were identified in municipalities of different regions. The number of priority municipalities showed a stable trend in Brazil. There was a great concentration of such municipalities in the states of Acre, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, Pará, and Amapá, as well as large areas in Roraima, Amazonas, Maranhão, and Tocantins, and smaller areas in the states of Goiás, Ceará, Bahia, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná. The present study contributes to the understanding of the historical evolution of TL in Brazil and subsidizes actions to combat the disease.

OBJECTIVE: In Canada, substance-related accidental acute toxicity deaths (AATDs) continue to rise at the national and sub-national levels. However, it is unknown if, where, when, and to what degree AATDs cluster in space, time, and space-time across the country. The objectives of this study were to 1) assess for clusters of AATDs that occurred in Canada during 2016 and 2017 at the national and provincial/territorial (P/T) levels, and 2) examine the substance types detected in AATD cases within each cluster.
METHODS: Two years of person-level data on AATDs were abstracted from coroner and medical examiner files using a standardized data collection tool, including the decedent\'s postal code and municipality information on the places of residence, acute toxicity (AT) event, and death, and the substances detected in the death. Data were combined with Canadian census information to create choropleth maps depicting AATD rates by census division. Spatial scan statistics were used to build Poisson models to identify clusters of high rates (p < 0.05) of AATDs at the national and P/T levels in space, time, and space-time over the study period. AATD cases within clusters were further examined for substance types most present in each cluster.
RESULTS: Eight clusters in five regions of Canada at the national level and 24 clusters in 15 regions at the P/T level were identified, highlighting where AATDs occurred at far higher rates than the rest of the country. The risk ratios of identified clusters ranged from 1.28 to 9.62. Substances detected in clusters varied by region and time, however, opioids, stimulants, and alcohol were typically the most commonly detected substances within clusters.
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are the first in Canada to reveal the geographic disparities in AATDs at national and P/T levels using spatial scan statistics. Rates associated with substance types within each cluster highlight which substance types were most detected in the identified regions. Findings may be used to guide intervention/program planning and provide a picture of the 2016 and 2017 context that can be used for comparisons of the geographic distribution of AATDs and substances with different time periods.

Staff at public health departments have few training materials to learn how to design and fine-tune systems to quickly detect acute, localized, community-acquired outbreaks of infectious diseases. Since 2014, the Bureau of Communicable Disease at the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has analyzed reportable communicable diseases daily using SaTScan. SaTScan is a free software that analyzes data using scan statistics, which can detect increasing disease activity without a priori specification of temporal period, geographic location, or size. The Bureau of Communicable Disease\'s systems have quickly detected outbreaks of salmonellosis, legionellosis, shigellosis, and COVID-19. This tutorial details system design considerations, including geographic and temporal data aggregation, study period length, inclusion criteria, whether to account for population size, network location file setup to account for natural boundaries, probability model (eg, space-time permutation), day-of-week effects, minimum and maximum spatial and temporal cluster sizes, secondary cluster reporting criteria, signaling criteria, and distinguishing new clusters versus ongoing clusters with additional events. We illustrate how to support health equity by minimizing analytic exclusions of patients with reportable diseases (eg, persons experiencing homelessness who are unsheltered) and accounting for purely spatial patterns, such as adjusting nonparametrically for areas with lower access to care and testing for reportable diseases. We describe how to fine-tune the system when the detected clusters are too large to be of interest or when signals of clusters are delayed, missed, too numerous, or false. We demonstrate low-code techniques for automating analyses and interpreting results through built-in features on the user interface (eg, patient line lists, temporal graphs, and dynamic maps), which became newly available with the July 2022 release of SaTScan version 10.1. This tutorial is the first comprehensive resource for health department staff to design and maintain a reportable communicable disease outbreak detection system using SaTScan to catalyze field investigations as well as develop intuition for interpreting results and fine-tuning the system. While our practical experience is limited to monitoring certain reportable diseases in a dense, urban area, we believe that most recommendations are generalizable to other jurisdictions in the United States and internationally. Additional analytic technical support for detecting outbreaks would benefit state, tribal, local, and territorial public health departments and the populations they serve.

UNASSIGNED: Lumpy skin disease is a viral disease that affects cattle belonging to genus Capripoxvirus (Poxviridae) and lead to significant economic losses.
UNASSIGNED: The objective of this study was to evaluate the distribution of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks and predict future patterns based on retrospective outbreak reports in Ethiopia.
UNASSIGNED: Data were collected through direct communication with regional laboratories and a hierarchical reporting system from the Peasant Associations to Ministry of Agriculture. Time-series data for the LSD outbreaks were analyzed using classical additive time-series decomposition and STL decomposition. Four models (ARIMA, SARIMA, ETS, STLF) were also used to forecast the number of LSD outbreaks that occurred each month for the years (2021-2025) after the models\' accuracy test was performed. Additionally, the space-time permutation model (STP) were also used to study retrospective space-time cluster analysis of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia.
UNASSIGNED: This study examined the geographical and temporal distribution of LSD outbreaks in Ethiopia from 2008 to 2020, reporting a total of 3,256 LSD outbreaks, 14,754 LSD-positive cases, 7,758 deaths, and 289 slaughters. It also covered approximately 68% of Ethiopia\'s districts, with Oromia reporting the highest LSD outbreaks. In the LSD\'s temporal distribution, the highest peak was reported following the rainy season in September to December and its lowest peak in the dry months of April and May. Out of the four models tested for forecasting, the SARIMA (3, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0) [12] model performed well for the validation data, while the STLF+Random Walk had a robust prediction for the training data. Thus, the SARIMA and STLF+Random Walk models produced a more accurate forecast of LSD outbreaks between 2020 and 2025. From retrospective Space-Time Cluster Analysis of LSD, eight possible clusters were also identified, with five of them located in central part of Ethiopia.
UNASSIGNED: The study\'s time series and ST-cluster analysis of LSD outbreak data provide valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of the disease in Ethiopia. These insights can aid in the development of effective strategies to control and prevent the spread of the disease and holds great potential for improving efforts to combat LSD in the country.

UNASSIGNED: Life-course exposure assessment, as opposed to a one-time snapshot assessment based on the address at cancer diagnosis, has become increasingly possible with available cancer patients\' residential history data. To demonstrate a novel application of residential history data, we examined the heterogeneous trajectories of the nonasbestos air toxic exposures among mesothelioma patients, and compared the patients\' residential locations with the spatiotemporal clusters estimated from the National Air Toxic Assessment (NATA) data.
UNASSIGNED: Patients\' residential histories were obtained by linking mesothelioma cases diagnosed during 2011-2015 in the New York State (NYS) Cancer Registry to LexisNexis administrative data and inpatient claims data. To compare cancer risks over time, yearly relative exposure (RE) was calculated by dividing the NATA cancer risk at individual census tracts by the NYS average and subtracting 1. We used a latent class mixed model to identify distinct exposure trajectories among patients with a 15-year residential history prior to cancer diagnosis (n = 909). We further examined patient characteristics by the latent trajectory groups using bivariate comparisons and a logistic regression model. The spatiotemporal clusters of RE were generated based on all NATA data (n = 72,079) across the contiguous United States and using the SaTScan software.
UNASSIGNED: The median number of addresses lived was 2 (IQR, 1-4), with a median residential duration of 8 years (IQR, 4.7-13.2 years). We identified 3 distinct exposure trajectories: persistent low exposure (27%), decreased low exposure (41%), and increased high exposure (32%). Patient characteristics did not differ across trajectory groups, except for race and Hispanic ethnicity (P < .0001) and residential duration (P = .03). Compared to their counterparts, non-Hispanic White patients had a significantly lower odds of belonging to the increased high exposure group (adjusted odds ratio, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.09-0.23) than the persistent low exposure and decreased low exposure groups. Patients in the increased high exposure group tended to reside in New York City (NYC), which was covered by one of the high-RE clusters. On the other hand, patients in the persistent low exposure group tended to reside outside of NYC within NYS, which was largely covered by 2 low-RE clusters.
UNASSIGNED: Using mesothelioma as an example, we quantified the heterogeneous trajectories of nonasbestos air toxic exposure based on patients\' residential histories. We found that patients\' race and ethnicity differed across the latent groups, likely reflecting the differences in patients\' residential mobility before their cancer diagnoses. Our method can be used to study cancer types that do not have a clear etiology and may have a higher attributable risk due to environmental exposures as well as socioeconomic conditions.

OBJECTIVE: Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a significant zoonotic disease transmitted by rodents. The distribution of HFRS in the European part of Russia has been studied quite well; however, much less is known about the endemic area in the Russian Far East. The mutual influence of the epidemic situation in the border regions and the possibility of cross-border transmission of infection remain poorly understood. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal hot spots of the incidence and the impact of environmental drivers on the HFRS distribution in the Russian Far East.
RESULTS: A two-scale study design was performed. Kulldorf\'s spatial scan statistic was used to conduct spatiotemporal analysis at a regional scale from 2000 to 2020. In addition, an ecological niche model based on maximum entropy was applied to analyse the contribution of various factors and identify spatial favourability at the local scale. One spatiotemporal cluster that existed from 2002 to 2011 and located in the border area and one pure temporal cluster from 2004 to 2007 were revealed. The best suitability for orthohantavirus persistence was found along rivers, including those at the Chinese-Russian border, and was mainly explained by land cover, NDVI (as an indicator of vegetation density and greenness) and elevation.
CONCLUSIONS: Despite the stable incidence in recent years in, targeted prevention strategies are still needed due to the high potential for HRFS distribution in the southeast of the Russian Far East.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a significant public health concern and the second leading cause of death. This study aims to visualize spatial patterns of top common cancer types and identify high-risk and low-risk counties for these cancers in Iran from 2014 to 2017.
METHODS: In this study, we analyzed 482,229 newly diagnosed cancer cases recorded by the Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry from 2014 to 2017. We employed a purely spatial scanning model and local Moran I analysis to explore spatial patterns across Iran.
RESULTS: Approximately 53% of all cases were male. The average age of cancer diagnosis was 62.58 ± 17.42 years for males and 56.11 ± 17.33years for females. Stomach cancer was the most common cancer in men. The northern and northwestern regions of Iran were identified as high-risk areas for stomach cancer in both genders, with a relative risk (RR) ranging from 1.26 to 2.64 in males and 1.19 to 3.32 in females. These areas recognized as high-risk areas for trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer specifically in males (RR:1.15-2.02). Central regions of Iran were identified as high-risk areas for non-melanoma skin cancers in both genders, ranking as the second most common cancer (RR:1.18-5.93 in males and 1.24-5.38 in females). Furthermore, bladder cancer in males (RR:1.32-2.77) and thyroid cancer in females (RR:1.88-3.10) showed concentration in the central part of Iran. Breast cancer, being the most common cancer among women (RR:1.23-5.54), exhibited concentration in the northern regions of the country. Also, northern regions of Iran were identified as high-risk clusters for colon cancer (RR:1.31-3.31 in males and 1.33-4.13 in females), and prostate cancer in males (RR:1.22-2.31). Brain, nervous system cancer, ranked sixth among women (RR:1.26-5.25) in central areas.
CONCLUSIONS: The study\'s revelations on the spatial patterns of common cancer incidence in Iran provide crucial insights into the distribution and trends of these diseases. The identification of high-risk areas equips policymakers with valuable information to tailor targeted screening programs, facilitating early diagnosis and effective disease control strategies.

UNASSIGNED: Despite affecting up to 20% of women and being the leading cause of preventable deaths during the perinatal and postpartum period, maternal mental health conditions are chronically understudied. This study is the first to identify spatial patterns in perinatal mental health conditions, and relate these patterns to place-based social and environmental factors that drive cluster development.
UNASSIGNED: We performed spatial clustering analysis of emergency department (ED) visits for perinatal mood and anxiety disorders (PMAD), severe mental illness (SMI), and maternal mental disorders of pregnancy (MDP) using the Poisson model in SatScan from 2016 to 2019 in North Carolina. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between patient and community-level factors and high-risk clusters.
UNASSIGNED: The most significant spatial clustering for all three outcomes was concentrated in smaller urban areas in the western, central piedmont, and coastal plains regions of the state, with odds ratios greater than 3 for some cluster locations. Individual factors (e.g., age, race, ethnicity) and contextual factors (e.g., racial and socioeconomic segregation, urbanity) were associated with high risk clusters.
UNASSIGNED: Results provide important contextual and spatial information concerning at-risk populations with a high burden of maternal mental health disorders and can better inform targeted locations for the expansion of maternal mental health services.

Leptospirosis, a zoonotic disease, stands as one of the prevailing health issues in some tropical areas of Iran. Over a decade, its incidence rate has been estimated at approximately 2.33 cases per 10,000 individuals. Our research focused on analyzing the spatiotemporal clustering of Leptospirosis and developing a disease prevalence model as an essential focal point for public health policymakers, urging targeted interventions and strategies.
The SaTScan and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling methods were used to find the spatiotemporal clusters of the Leptospirosis and model the disease prevalence in Iran. We incorporated nine environmental covariates by employing a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km, the finest resolution ever implemented for modeling Human Leptospirosis in Iran. These covariates encompassed the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, displacement areas, water bodies, and land cover, monthly recorded Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), monthly recorded precipitation, monthly recorded mean and maximum temperature, contributing significantly to our disease modeling approach. The analysis using MaxEnt yielded the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) metrics for the training and test data, to evaluate the accuracy of the implemented model.
The findings reveal a highly significant primary cluster (p-value < 0.05) located in the western regions of the Gilan province, spanning from July 2013 to July 2015 (p-value < 0.05). Moreover, there were four more clusters (p-value < 0.05) identified near Someh Sara, Neka, Gorgan and Rudbar. Furthermore, the risk mapping effectively illustrates the potential expansion of the disease into the western and northwestern regions. The AUC metrics of 0.956 and 0.952 for the training and test data, respectively, underscoring the robust accuracy of the implemented model. Interestingly, among the variables considered, the influence of slope and distance from water bodies appears to be minimal. However, altitude and precipitation stand out as the primary determinants that significantly contribute to the prevalence of the disease.
The risk map generated through this study carries significant potential to enhance public awareness and inform the formulation of impactful policies to combat Leptospirosis. These maps also play a crucial role in tracking disease incidents and strategically directing interventions toward the regions most susceptible.