Global warming is profoundly impacting snowmelt runoff processes in seasonal freeze-thaw zones, thereby altering the risk of rain-on-snow (ROS) floods. These changes not only affect the frequency of floods but also alter the allocation of water resources, which has implications for agriculture and other key economic sectors. While these risks present a significant threat to our lives and economies, the risk of ROS floods triggered by climate change has not received the attention it deserves. Therefore, we chose Changbai Mountain, a water tower in a high-latitude cold zone, as a typical study area. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT is coupled with CMIP6 meteorological data, and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) are selected after bias correction, thus quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Changbai Mountain region as well as future evolution of the ROS flood risk. The results indicate that: (1) Under future climate change scenarios, snowmelt in most areas of the Changbai Mountains decreases. The annual average snowmelt under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 is projected to be 148.65 mm, 135.63 mm, 123.44 mm, and 116.5 mm, respectively. The onset of snowmelt is projected to advance in the future. Specifically, in the Songhua River (SR) and Yalu River (YR) regions, the start of snowmelt is expected to advance by 1-11 days. Spatially, significant reductions in snowmelt were observed in both the central part of the watershed and the lower reaches of the river under SSP585 scenario. (2) In 2021-2060, the frequency of ROS floods decreases sequentially for different scenarios, with SSP 126 > SSP 245 > SSP 370 > SSP 585. The frequency increments of ROS floods in the source area for the four scenarios were 0.12 days/year, 0.1 d/yr, 0.13 days/year, and 0.15 days/year, respectively. The frequency of high-elevation ROS events increases in the YR in the low emission scenario. Conversely, in high emission scenarios, YR high-elevation ROS events will only increase in 2061-2100. This phenomenon is more pronounced in the Tumen River (TR), where floods become more frequent with increasing elevation.

The objective of this study was to evaluate fish habitat suitability by simulating hydrodynamic and water quality factors using SWAT and HEC-RAS linked simulation considering time-series analysis. A 2.9 km reach of the Bokha stream was selected for the habitat evaluation of Zacco platypus, with hydrodynamic and water quality simulations performed using the SWAT and HEC-RAS linked approach. Based on simulated 10-year data, the aquatic habitat was assessed using the weighted usable area (WUA), and minimum ecological streamflow was proposed from continuous above threshold (CAT) analysis. High water temperature was identified as the most influential habitat indicator, with its impact being particularly pronounced in shallow streamflow areas during hot summer seasons. The time-series analysis identified a 28% threshold of WUA/WUAmax, equivalent to a streamflow of 0.48 m3/s, as the minimum ecological streamflow necessary to mitigate the impact of rising water temperatures. The proposed habitat modeling method, linking watershed-stream models, could serve as a useful tool for ecological stream management.

Pollution fluxes from rivers into the sea are currently the main source of pollutants in nearshore areas. Based on the source-sink process of the basin-estuary-coastal waters system, the pollution fluxes into the sea and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity were estimated. A deep learning-based model was established to simplify the estimation of pollution fluxes into the sea, with socio-economic drivers and meteorological data as input variables. A method for estimating the contribution rate of pollution fluxes from different spatial gradient was proposed. In this study, we found that (1) the pollution fluxes into the sea of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from the Bohai Sea Rim Basin (BSRB) in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 25.38 × 104, 26.12 × 104, 27.27 × 104, 29.82 × 104, 25.31 × 104 and 1.32 × 104, 2.14 × 104, 2.09 × 104, 1.87 × 104, 1.68 × 104 tons, respectively. (2) The proportion of rural life and livestock to the TN was the highest, accounting for 39.18 % and 21.19 %, respectively. The proportion of livestock to the TP was the highest, accounting for 39.20 %, followed by rural life, accounting for 24.72 %. The results indicated that the pollution fluxes in the BSRB were related to human economic activities and relevant environmental protection measures. (3) The deep learning-based model established to estimate runoff pollution fluxes into the sea had the accuracy of over 90 %. (4) As for contribution rate, in terms of the elevation, the range of 0-100 m had the highest proportion, accounting for 39.65 %. The range of 50-100 km from the coastline had the highest proportion, accounting for 18.11 %. In terms of the district, coastal area has the highest proportion, accounting for 38.00 %. This study revealed the changing trends and driving mechanisms of pollution fluxes into the sea over the past 40 years and established a simplified deep learning-based model for estimating pollution fluxes into the sea. Then, we identified regions with high pollution contribution rate. The results can provide scientific references for the adaptive management of the nearshore areas based on the ecosystem.

Human activities continuously impact water balances and cycling in watersheds, making it essential to accurately identify the responses of runoff to dynamic changes in land use types. Although machine learning models demonstrate promise in capturing the intricate interplay between hydrological factors, their \"black box\" nature makes it challenging to identify the dynamic drivers of runoff. To overcome this challenge, we employed an interpretable machine learning method to inversely deduce the dynamic determinants within hydrological processes. In this study, we analyzed land use changes in the Ningxia section of the middle Yellow River across four periods, laying the foundation for revealing how these changes affect runoff. The sub-watershed attributes and meteorological characteristics generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used as input variables of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to simulate substantial sub-watershed rainfall runoff in the region. The XGBoost was interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the dynamic responses of runoff to the land use changes over different periods. The results revealed increasingly frequent interchanges between the land use types in the study area. The XGBoost effectively captured the characteristics of the hydrological processes in the SWAT-derived sub-watersheds. The SHAP analysis results demonstrated that the promoting effect of agricultural land (AGRL) on runoff gradually weakens, while forests (FRST) continuously strengthen their restraining effect on runoff. Relevant land use policies provide empirical support for these findings. Furthermore, the interaction between meteorological variables and land use impacts the runoff generation mechanism and exhibits a threshold effect, with the thresholds for relative humidity (RH), maximum temperature (MaxT), and minimum temperature (MinT) determined to be 0.8, 25 °C, and 15 °C, respectively. This reverse deduction method can reveal hydrological patterns and the mechanisms of interaction between variables, helping to effectively addressing constantly changing human activities and meteorological conditions.

Understanding hydrological processes necessitates the use of modeling techniques due to the intricate interactions among environmental factors. Estimating model parameters remains a significant challenge in runoff modeling for ungauged catchments. This research evaluates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool\'s capacity to simulate hydrological behaviors in the Tha Chin River Basin with an emphasis on runoff predictions from the regionalization of hydrological parameters of the gauged basin, Mae Khlong River Basin. Historical data of Mae Khlong River Basin from 1993 to 2017 were utilized for calibration, followed by validation using data from 2018 to 2022. •Calibration results showed the SWAT model\'s reasonable accuracy, with R² = 0.85, and the validation with R² of 0.64, indicating a satisfactory match between observed and simulated runoff.•Utilizing Machine Learning (ML) techniques for parameter regionalization revealed nuanced differences in model performance. The Random Forest (RF) model exhibited an R² of 0.60 and the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model slightly improved upon RF, showing an R² of 0.61 while the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model demonstrated the highest overall performance, with an R² of 0.63.•This study highlights the effectiveness of the SWAT and ML techniques in predicting runoff for ungauged catchments, emphasizing their potential to enhance hydrological modeling accuracy. Future research should focus on integrating these methodologies in various basins and improving data collection for better model performance.

An expansion of impervious surfaces in urban areas leads to increases of nutrient loads discharged with the surface runoff to receivers. A study of a different density of urban development impact on total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) loads from the city of Lublin (eastern Poland) with the use of the SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model was performed. To distinguish between areas with high and low density of urban development (UHD and ULD), a special analysis of hydrological parameters has been proposed. Moreover, to investigate the impact of climate change, four variant scenarios were taken into account, combining the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 forecasts and the adopted time horizons (2026-2035 and 2046-2055). The results showed a much higher share of TN and TP from UHD compared to ULD (86%-32 022 kg/year and 89%-2574 kg/year, respectively). In addition, the variant scenarios showed that the forecasted increase in precipitation and temperature will result in increased loads of nutrients from UHD and ULD up to 30%. Furthermore, the current increase of inhabitant number, due to the Ukrainian war migration and the common tendency to convert agricultural land to residential areas, could contribute to further expansion of UHD and ULD areas and an additional increase of nutrient loads.

Regional water cycle systems are increasingly characterized by the dual effect of natural and social processes, which have profound impacts on global water security. However, accurately interpreting the changes in the coupled natural-social water system and identifying the driving factors pose significant challenges. Here, we attempted to model a coupled natural-social water system in the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) watershed of the Tennessee River, United States. The study area features two social water cycle components: a local water transfer project and the Oak Ridge Wastewater Treatment Facility (ORWTF). We conducted the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling in the open-source light-weight QGIS software, with the synthesis of various climate and land use change scenarios in both historical periods (1980-2016) and future periods (2017-2050). We achieved more accurate and realistic model simulations when considering the social water cycle components, indicating that the social water cycle accounted for 13-18 % of the observed streamflow. Climate variation/change dominates natural runoff changes. Though land use and cover change (LUCC) had minimal effect on natural runoff, it had a profound impact on the process of runoff generation, i.e., surface runoff (RS) and subsurface runoff (RSS). Specifically, LUCC would be responsible for 152 % and 45 % of the changes in RS and RSS, respectively, in future periods. This study highlights the significance of artificial water discharge and withdrawal impacts on the water cycle and emphasizes the need for water resources management measures that fully consider natural-social hydrological processes.

The current study focuses on analyzing the impacts of climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) changes on sediment yield in the Puthimari basin, an Eastern Himalayan sub-watershed of the Brahmaputra, using a hybrid SWAT-ANN model approach. The analysis was meticulously segmented into three distinct time spans: 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099. This innovative method integrates insights from multiple climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), along with LULC projections generated through the Cellular Automata Markov model. By combining the strengths of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques, the study aims to improve the accuracy of sediment yield simulations in response to changing environmental conditions. The non-linear autoregressive with external input (NARX) method was adopted for the ANN component of the hybrid model. The adoption of the hybrid SWAT-ANN approach appears to be particularly effective in improving the accuracy of sediment yield simulation compared to using the SWAT model alone, as evidenced by the higher coefficient of determination value of 0.74 for the hybrid model compared to 0.35 for the standalone SWAT model. In the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, during 2075-99, the study noted a 29.34% increase in sediment yield, accompanied by simultaneous rises of 42.74% in discharge and 27.43% in rainfall during the Indian monsoon season, spanning from June to September. In contrast, under the RCP8.5 scenario, for the same period, the increases in sediment yield, discharge, and rainfall for the monsoon season were determined to be 116.56%, 103.28%, and 64.72%, respectively. The present study\'s comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing sediment supply in the Puthimari River basin fills an important knowledge gap and provides valuable insights for designing proactive flood and erosion management strategies. The findings from this research are crucial for understanding the vulnerability of the Puthimari basin to climate and land use changes, and by incorporating these findings into policy and decision-making processes, stakeholders can work towards enhancing resilience and sustainability in the face of future hydrological and environmental challenges.

Assessment of water availability in sub-humid regions is important due to distinct climatic and environmental conditions. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) models have been assessed in simulating streamflows in the sub-humid tropical Kabini basin in Kerala, India, spanning 1260 km2. Calibration and validation utilized daily weather data from 1997 to 2015 from the Muthankera gauging station. The study investigated the impact of routing methods on runoff simulation in the ArcSWAT, exploring Muskingum and Variable Storage methods. Evaluation metrics encompassed Nash-Sutcliffe Efïciency (NSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Percent bias (PBIAS), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), and Peak Percent Threshold Statistics (PPTS) approach for high-flow values. The result indicates that HEC-HMS outperforms SWAT concerning R2 and NSE values during daily calibration and validation. Monthly simulations showed HEC-HMS closely aligning with SWAT (Variable storage), outperforming SWAT (Muskingum). The PPTS approach proved effective in simulating high-flow values. Both models exhibited proficiency in streamflow analysis within the study area, promising predictive potential for future hydrological studies in sub-humid regions.

Physically based or data-driven models can be used for understanding basinwide hydrological processes and creating predictions for future conditions. Physically based models use physical laws and principles to represent hydrological processes. In contrast, data-driven models focus on input-output relationships. Although both approaches have found applications in hydrology, studies that compare these approaches are still limited for data-scarce, semi-arid basins with altered hydrological regimes. This study aims to compare the performances of a physically based model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)) and a data-driven model (Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogenous model (NARX)) for reservoir volume and streamflow prediction in a data-scarce semi-arid region. The study was conducted in the Tersakan Basin, a semi-arid agricultural basin in Türkiye, where the basin hydrology was significantly altered due to reservoirs (Ladik and Yedikir Reservoir) constructed for irrigation purposes. The models were calibrated and validated for streamflow and reservoir volumes. The results show that (1) NARX performed better in the prediction of water volumes of Ladik and Yedikir Reservoirs and streamflow at the basin outlet than SWAT (2). The SWAT and NARX models both provided the best performance when predicting water volumes at the Ladik reservoir. Both models provided the second best performance during the prediction of water volumes at the Yedikir reservoir. The model performances were the lowest for prediction of streamflow at the basin outlet (3). Comparison of physically based and data-driven models is challenging due to their different characteristics and input data requirements. In this study, the data-driven model provided higher performance than the physically based model. However, input data used for establishing the physically based model had several uncertainties, which may be responsible for the lower performance. Data-driven models can provide alternatives to physically-based models under data-scarce conditions.