■胆结石病(GSD)是世界范围内发病率较高的常见消化道疾病之一。GSD对患者的影响包括但不限于恶心症状,呕吐,和GSD直接引起的胆绞痛。此外,越来越多的证据来自队列研究,将GSD与其他疾病联系起来,比如心血管疾病,胆道癌,还有结直肠癌.早期识别GSD高风险患者可能有助于改善疾病的预防和控制。一系列研究试图建立GSD的预测模型,但是由于预测因素不完整,这些模型不能完全应用于普通人群,小样本量,以及外部验证的局限性。设计一个普遍适用的一般人群GSD风险预测模型,采取个体化干预措施预防GSD的发生至关重要。本研究旨在开展一项涉及90000多人的多中心调查,构建并验证一个完整、简化的GSD风险预测模型。
■2015年1月至2020年12月,共有123634名参与者被纳入研究,其中43929人来自重庆医科大学附属第一医院(重庆,中国),11907来自济宁市第一人民医院(山东,中国),1538人来自天津医科大学肿瘤研究所和医院(天津,中国),66260来自开州区人民医院(重庆市,中国)。排除临床医学资料不完整的患者后,将来自重庆医科大学附属第一医院的35976名患者分为训练数据集(n=28781,80%)和验证数据集(n=7195,20%)。采用Logistic回归分析探讨GSD的相关危险因素,构建了完整的风险预测模型。得分高的因素,主要根据完整模型的列线图,被保留以简化模型。在验证数据集中,使用校准曲线验证了这些模型的诊断准确性和临床表现,接收器工作特性曲线的曲线下面积(AUC),和决策曲线分析(DCA)。此外,这两种模型的诊断准确性在另外三家医院得到了验证.最后,我们建立了一个使用预测模型的在线网站(完整的模型可以在https://wenqiyu访问。shinyapps.io/Completemodel/,而简化的模型可以在https://wenqiyu访问。shinyapps.io/简体/)。
■排除临床医疗数据不完整的患者后,最终共有96426名参与者被纳入本研究(35876名来自重庆医科大学附属第一医院,济宁市第一人民医院9289,1522年来自天津医科大学肿瘤研究所,和49639来自开州区人民医院)。女性性别,高龄,较高的体重指数,空腹血糖,尿酸,总胆红素,γ-谷氨酰转肽酶,脂肪肝与GSD风险呈正相关。此外,胆囊息肉,总胆固醇,高密度脂蛋白胆固醇,低密度脂蛋白胆固醇,天冬氨酸转氨酶与GSD风险呈负相关。根据完整模型的列线图,包括性别在内的简化模型,年龄,身体质量指数,胆囊息肉,和脂肪肝的构造。所有校准曲线在预测和观察到的概率之间表现出良好的一致性。此外,DCA表明,完整模型和简化模型均显示出比全部治疗和无治疗更好的净收益。根据校准图,DCA,和完整模型的AUC(内部验证数据集中的AUC=74.1%[95%CI:72.9%-75.3%],山东AUC=71.7%[95%CI:70.6%-72.8%],天津市AUC=75.3%[95%CI:72.7%-77.9%],和开州的AUC=72.9%[95%CI:72.5%-73.3%])和简化模型(内部验证数据集中的AUC=73.7%[95%CI:72.5%-75.0%],山东的AUC=71.5%[95%CI:70.4%-72.5%],天津市AUC=75.4%[95%CI:72.9%-78.0%],开州的AUC=72.4%[95%CI:72.0%-72.8%]),我们得出的结论是,完整和简化的GSD风险预测模型表现出优异的性能。此外,我们检测到两种模型的性能之间没有显着差异(P>0.05)。我们还根据这项研究的结果建立了两个在线网站,用于GSD风险预测。
■这项研究创新性地使用了来自四家医院的96426名患者的数据,以建立GSD风险预测模型,并对四个队列中的内部和外部验证数据集进行风险预测分析。GSD风险预测的简化模型,其中包括性别变量,年龄,身体质量指数,胆囊息肉,脂肪肝疾病,也表现出良好的辨别力和临床表现。尽管如此,低密度脂蛋白胆固醇和天冬氨酸转氨酶在胆囊结石形成中的作用有待进一步研究。完整模型的验证结果在一定程度上优于简化模型,即使在大样本中,差异也不显著。与完整模型相比,简化模型使用的变量较少,产生的预测和临床影响相似.因此,我们建议应用简化模型,以提高实践中筛查高危人群的效率。简化模型的使用有利于提高一般人群的自我防控意识和对GSD的早期干预。
UNASSIGNED: Gallstone disease (GSD) is one of the common digestive tract diseases with a high worldwide prevalence. The effects of GSD on patients include but are not limited to the symptoms of nausea, vomiting, and biliary colic directly caused by GSD. In addition, there is mounting evidence from cohort studies connecting GSD to other conditions, such as cardiovascular diseases, biliary tract cancer, and colorectal cancer. Early identification of patients at a high risk of GSD may help improve the prevention and control of the disease. A series of studies have attempted to establish prediction models for GSD, but these models could not be fully applied in the general population due to incomplete prediction factors, small sample sizes, and limitations in external validation. It is crucial to design a universally applicable GSD risk prediction model for the general population and to take individualized intervention measures to prevent the occurrence of GSD. This study aims to conduct a multicenter investigation involving more than 90000 people to construct and validate a complete and simplified GSD risk prediction model.
UNASSIGNED: A total of 123634 participants were included in the study between January 2015 and December 2020, of whom 43929 were from the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University (Chongqing, China), 11907 were from the First People\'s Hospital of Jining City (Shandong, China), 1538 were from the Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital (Tianjin, China), and 66260 were from the People\'s Hospital of Kaizhou District (Chongqing, China). After excluding patients with incomplete clinical medical data, 35976 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were divided into a training data set (n=28781, 80%) and a validation data set (n=7195, 20%). Logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the relevant risk factors of GSD, and a complete risk prediction model was constructed. Factors with high scores, mainly according to the nomograms of the complete model, were retained to simplify the model. In the validation data set, the diagnostic accuracy and clinical performance of these models were validated using the calibration curve, area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Moreover, the diagnostic accuracy of these two models was validated in three other hospitals. Finally, we established an online website for using the prediction model (The complete model is accessible at https://wenqianyu.shinyapps.io/Completemodel/, while the simplified model is accessible at https://wenqianyu.shinyapps.io/Simplified/).
UNASSIGNED: After excluding patients with incomplete clinical medical data, a total of 96426 participants were finally included in this study (35876 from the First Affiliated Hospital of the Chongqing Medical University, 9289 from the First People\'s Hospital of Jining City, 1522 from the Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute, and 49639 from the People\'s Hospital of Kaizhou District). Female sex, advanced age, higher body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, uric acid, total bilirubin, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, and fatty liver disease were positively associated with risks for GSD. Furthermore, gallbladder polyps, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and aspartate aminotransferase were negatively correlated to risks for GSD. According to the nomograms of the complete model, a simplified model including sex, age, body mass index, gallbladder polyps, and fatty liver disease was constructed. All the calibration curves exhibited good consistency between the predicted and observed probabilities. In addition, DCA indicated that both the complete model and the simplified model showed better net benefits than treat-all and treat-none. Based on the calibration plots, DCA, and AUCs of the complete model (AUC in the internal validation data set=74.1% [95% CI: 72.9%-75.3%], AUC in Shandong=71.7% [95% CI: 70.6%-72.8%], AUC in Tianjin=75.3% [95% CI: 72.7%-77.9%], and AUC in Kaizhou=72.9% [95% CI: 72.5%-73.3%]) and the simplified model (AUC in the internal validation data set=73.7% [95% CI: 72.5%-75.0%], AUC in Shandong=71.5% [95% CI: 70.4%-72.5%], AUC in Tianjin=75.4% [95% CI: 72.9%-78.0%], and AUC in Kaizhou=72.4% [95% CI: 72.0%-72.8%]), we concluded that the complete and simplified risk prediction models for GSD exhibited excellent performance. Moreover, we detected no significant differences between the performance of the two models (P>0.05). We also established two online websites based on the results of this study for GSD risk prediction.
UNASSIGNED: This study innovatively used the data from 96426 patients from four hospitals to establish a GSD risk prediction model and to perform risk prediction analyses of internal and external validation data sets in four cohorts. A simplified model of GSD risk prediction, which included the variables of sex, age, body mass index, gallbladder polyps, and fatty liver disease, also exhibited good discrimination and clinical performance. Nonetheless, further studies are needed to explore the role of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and aspartate aminotransferase in gallstone formation. Although the validation results of the complete model were better than those of the simplified model to a certain extent, the difference was not significant even in large samples. Compared with the complete model, the simplified model uses fewer variables and yields similar prediction and clinical impact. Hence, we recommend the application of the simplified model to improve the efficiency of screening high-risk groups in practice. The use of the simplified model is conducive to enhancing the self-awareness of prevention and control in the general population and early intervention for GSD.