背景:血液学指标和临床特征在评估胸腺上皮肿瘤的进展和预后中起重要作用。因此,我们旨在将这些潜在指标结合起来,建立预后列线图,以确定接受胸腺切除术的胸腺上皮肿瘤患者的无复发生存期(RFS).
方法:这项回顾性研究是对2004年5月至2015年8月之间进行胸腺切除术的156例患者进行的。进行Cox回归分析以确定与预后相关的潜在指标,并将这些指标组合以创建用于视觉预测的列线图。使用一致性指数(C指数)评估列线图的预后预测能力,接收机工作特性(ROC)曲线,和风险分层。决策曲线分析用于评估模型的净收益。
结果:术前白蛋白水平,中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比率(NLR),T级,和WHO组织学类型包括在列线图中。在训练组中,列线图显示良好的预后能力(C指数:0.902)。无复发生存(RFS)的校准曲线与训练和验证队列中的标准线非常吻合。
结论:结合临床和血液学因素,列线图在预测该患者人群的预后和无复发生存期方面表现良好.它有可能在早期阶段识别高风险患者。这是预测该患者群体中RFS的相对新颖的方法。
BACKGROUND: Hematological indicators and clinical characteristics play an important role in the evaluation of the progression and prognosis of thymic epithelial tumors. Therefore, we aimed to combine these potential indicators to establish a prognostic nomogram to determine the relapse-free survival (RFS) of patients with thymic epithelial tumors undergoing thymectomy.
METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted on 156 patients who underwent thymectomy between May 2004 and August 2015. Cox regression analysis were performed to determine the potential indicators related to prognosis and combine these indicators to create a nomogram for visual prediction. The prognostic predictive ability of the nomogram was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and risk stratification. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the net benefits of the model.
RESULTS: Preoperative albumin levels, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), T stage, and WHO histologic types were included in the nomogram. In the training cohort, the nomogram showed well prognostic ability (C index: 0.902). Calibration curves for the relapse-free survival (RFS) were in good agreement with the standard lines in training and validation cohorts.
CONCLUSIONS: Combining clinical and hematologic factors, the nomogram performed well in predicting the prognosis and the relapse-free survival of this patient population. And it has potential to identify high-risk patients at an early stage. This is a relatively novel approach for the prediction of RFS in this patient population.