BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is used in hospitals across the UK to detect deterioration of patients within care pathways. It is used for most patients, but there are relatively few studies validating its performance in groups of patients with specific conditions.
METHODS: The performance of NEWS was evaluated against 36 other Early Warning Scores, in 123 patient groups, through use of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve technique, to compare the abilities of each Early Warning Score to discriminate an outcome within 24hrs of vital sign recording. Outcomes evaluated were death, ICU admission, or a combined outcome of either death or ICU admission within 24 hours of an observation set.
RESULTS: The National Early Warning Score 2 performs either best or joint best within 120 of the 123 patient groups evaluated and is only outperformed in prediction of unanticipated ICU admission. When outperformed by other Early Warning Scores in the remaining 3 patient groups, the performance difference was marginal.
CONCLUSIONS: Consistently high performance indicates that NEWS is a suitable early warning score to use for all diagnostic groups considered by this analysis, and patients are not disadvantaged through use of NEWS in comparison to any of the other evaluated Early Warning Scores.

UNASSIGNED: Many rapid response systems now have multiple tiers of escalation in addition to the traditional single tier of a medical emergency team. Given that the benefit to patient outcomes of this change is unclear, we sought to investigate the workload implications of a multitiered system, including the impact of trigger modification.
UNASSIGNED: The study design incorporated a post hoc analysis using a matched case-control dataset.
UNASSIGNED: The study setting was an acute, adult tertiary referral hospital.
UNASSIGNED: Cases that had an adverse event (cardiac arrest or unanticipated intensive care unit admission) or a rapid response team (RRT) call participated in the study. Controls were matched by age, gender, ward and time of year, and no adverse event or RRT call. Participants were admitted between May 2014 and April 2015.
UNASSIGNED: The main outcome measure were the number of reviews, triggers, and modifications across three tiers of escalation; a nurse review, a multidisciplinary review (MDT-admitting medical team review), and an RRT call.
UNASSIGNED: There were 321 cases and 321 controls. Overall, there were 1948 nurse triggers, of which 1431 (73.5%) were in cases and 517 (26.5%) in controls, 798 MDT triggers (660 [82.7%] in cases and 138 [17.3%] in controls), and 379 RRT triggers (351 [92.6%] in cases and 28 [7.4%] in controls). Per patient per 24 h, there were 3.03 nurse, 1.24 MDT, and 0.59 RRT triggers. Accounting for modifications, this reduced to 2.17, 0.88, and 0.42, respectively. The proportion of triggers that were modified, so as not to trigger a review, was similar across all the tiers, being 28.6% of nurse, 29.6% of MDT, and 28.2% of RRT triggers. Per patient per 24 h, there were 0.61 nurse reviews, 0.52 MDT reviews, and 0.08 RRT reviews.
UNASSIGNED: Lower-tier triggers were more prevalent, and modifications were common. Modifications significantly mitigated the escalation workload across all tiers of a multitiered system.

UNASSIGNED: Of the eight large (>50 cases) US postelimination outbreaks, the first and last occurred in Ohio. Ohio\'s vaccination registry is incomplete. Community-level immunity gaps threaten more than two decades of measles elimination in the US. We developed a statistical model, VaxEstim, to rapidly estimate the early-phase vaccination coverage and immunity gap in the exposed population during the 2022 Central Ohio outbreak.
UNASSIGNED: We used reconstructed daily incidence (from publicly available data) and assumptions about the distribution of the serial interval, or the time between symptom onset in successive measles cases, to estimate the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a partially immune population). We estimated early-phase measles vaccination coverage by comparing the effective reproduction number to the basic reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a fully susceptible population) while accounting for vaccine effectiveness. Finally, we estimated the early-phase immunity gap as the difference between the estimated critical vaccination threshold and vaccination coverage.
UNASSIGNED: VaxEstim estimated the early-phase vaccination coverage as 53% (95% credible interval, 21%-77%), the critical vaccination threshold as 93%, and the immunity gap as 42% (95% credible interval, 18%-74%).
UNASSIGNED: This study estimates a significant immunity gap in the exposed population during the early phase of the 2022 Central Ohio measles outbreak, suggesting a robust public health response is needed to identify the susceptible community and develop community-specific strategies to close the immunity gap.
UNASSIGNED: This work was supported in part by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, National Institutes of Health; the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology; Imperial College London, and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Community Jameel; the EDCTP2 programme, supported by the EU; and the Sergei Brin Foundation.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact implementation of Emergency Department Clinical Emergency Response System (EDCERS) on inpatient deterioration events and identify contributing causal factors.
METHODS: EDCERS was implemented in an Australian regional hospital, integrating a single parameter track and trigger criteria for escalation of care, and emergency, specialty and critical care clinician response to patient deterioration. In this controlled pre-post study, electronic medical records of patients who experienced a deterioration event (rapid response call, cardiac arrest or unplanned intensive care admission) on the ward within 72 h of admission from the emergency department (ED) were reviewed. Causal factors contributing to the deteriorating event were assessed using a validated human factors framework.
RESULTS: Implementation of EDCERS reduced the number of inpatient deterioration events within 72 h of emergency admission with failure or delayed response to ED patient deterioration as a causal factor. There was no change in the overall rate of inpatient deterioration events.
CONCLUSIONS: This study supports wider implementation of rapid response systems in the ED to improve management of deteriorating patients. Tailored implementation strategies should be used to achieve successful and sustainable uptake of ED rapid response systems and improve outcomes in deteriorating patients.

Rapid response systems designed to detect and respond to clinical deterioration often incorporate a multitiered, escalation response. We sought to determine the \'predictive strength\' of commonly used triggers, and tiers of escalation, for predicting a rapid response team (RRT) call, unanticipated intensive care unit admission, or cardiac arrest (events).
This was a nested, matched case-control study.
The study setting involved a tertiary referral hospital.
Cases experienced an event, and controls were matched patients without an event.
Sensitivity and specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were measured. Logistic regression determined the set of triggers with the highest AUC.
There were 321 cases and 321 controls. Nurse triggers occurred in 62%, medical review triggers in 34%, and RRT triggers 20%. Positive predictive value of nurse triggers was 59%, that of medical review triggers was 75%, and that of RRT triggers was 88%. These values were no different when modifications to triggers were considered. The AUC was 0.61 for nurses, 0.67 for medical review, and 0.65 for RRT triggers. With modelling, the AUC was 0.63 for the lowest tier, 0.71 for next highest, and 0.73 for the highest tier.
For a three-tiered system, at the lowest tier, specificity of triggers decreases, sensitivity increases, but the discriminatory power is poor. Thus, there is little to be gained by using a rapid response system with more than two tiers. Modifications to triggers reduced the potential number of escalations and did not affect tier discriminatory value.