OBJECTIVE: Meropenem is commonly used against Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Traditionally, the time unbound antibiotic concentration exceeds the MIC (fT>MIC) is used to select carbapenem regimens. We aimed to characterize the effects of different baseline resistance mechanisms on bacterial killing and resistance emergence; evaluate whether fT>MIC can predict these effects; and, develop a novel Quantitative and Systems Pharmacology (QSP) model to describe the effects of baseline resistance mechanisms on the time-course of bacterial response.
METHODS: Seven isogenic P. aeruginosa strains with a range of resistance mechanisms and MICs were used in 10-day hollow-fiber infection model studies. Meropenem pharmacokinetic profiles were simulated for various regimens (t1/2,meropenem = 1.5 h). All viable counts on drug-free, 3 × MIC, and 5 × MIC meropenem-containing agar across all strains, five regimens, and control (n = 90 profiles) were simultaneously subjected to QSP modeling. Whole genome sequencing was completed for total population samples and emergent resistant colonies at 239 h.
RESULTS: Regimens achieving ≥98%fT>1×MIC suppressed resistance emergence of the mexR knockout strain. Even 100%fT>5 × MIC failed to achieve this against the strain with OprD loss and the ampD and mexR double-knockout strain. Baseline resistance mechanisms affected bacterial outcomes, even for strains with the same MIC. Genomic analysis revealed that pre-existing resistant subpopulations drove resistance emergence. During meropenem exposure, mutations in mexR were selected in strains with baseline oprD mutations, and vice versa, confirming these as major mechanisms of resistance emergence. Secondary mutations occurred in lysS or argS, coding for lysyl and arginyl tRNA synthetases, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The QSP model well-characterized all bacterial outcomes of the seven strains simultaneously, which fT>MIC could not.

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Recently, immunotherapies for antitumoral response have adopted conditionally activated molecules with the objective of reducing systemic toxicity. Amongst these are conditionally activated antibodies, such as PROBODY® activatable therapeutics (Pb-Tx), engineered to be proteolytically activated by proteases found locally in the tumor microenvironment (TME). These PROBODY® therapeutics molecules have shown potential as PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitors in several cancer types, including both effectiveness and locality of action of the molecule as shown by several clinical trials and imaging studies. Here, we perform an exploratory study using our recently published quantitative systems pharmacology model, previously validated for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), to computationally predict the effectiveness and targeting specificity of a PROBODY® therapeutics drug compared to the non-modified antibody. We begin with the analysis of anti-PD-L1 immunotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). As a first contribution, we have improved previous virtual patient selection methods using the omics data provided by the iAtlas database portal compared to methods previously published in literature. Furthermore, our results suggest that masking an antibody maintains its efficacy while improving the localization of active therapeutic in the TME. Additionally, we generalize the model by evaluating the dependence of the response to the tumor mutational burden, independently of cancer type, as well as to other key biomarkers, such as CD8/Treg Tcell and M1/M2 macrophage ratio. While our results are obtained from simulations on NSCLC, our findings are generalizable to other cancer types and suggest that an effective and highly selective conditionally activated PROBODY® therapeutics molecule is a feasible option.

The quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) approach is widely applied to address various essential questions in drug discovery and development, such as identification of the mechanism of action of a therapeutic agent, patient stratification, and the mechanistic understanding of the progression of disease. In this review article, we show the current landscape of the application of QSP modeling using a survey of QSP publications over 10 years from 2013 to 2022. We also present a use case for the risk assessment of hyperkalemia in patients with diabetic nephropathy treated with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors), as a prospective simulation of late clinical development. A QSP model for generating virtual patients with diabetic nephropathy was used to quantitatively assess that the nonsteroidal MRAs, finerenone and apararenone, have a lower risk of hyperkalemia than the steroidal MRA, eplerenone. Prospective simulation studies using a QSP model are useful to prioritize pharmaceutical candidates in clinical development and validate mechanism-based pharmacological concepts related to the risk-benefit, before conducting large-scale clinical trials.

The use of mathematical models has become increasingly prevalent in pharmacological fields, particularly in drug development processes. These models are instrumental in tasks such as designing clinical trials and assessing factors like efficacy, toxicity, and clinical practice. Various types of models have been developed and documented. Nevertheless, emphasizing the reliability of parameter values is crucial, as they play a pivotal role in shaping the behavior of the system. In some instances, parameter values reported previously are treated as fixed values, which can lead to convergence towards values that deviate substantially from those found in actual biological systems. This is especially true when parameter values are determined through fitting to limited observations. To mitigate this risk, the reuse of parameter values from previous reports should be approached with a critical evaluation of their validity. Currently, there is a proposal for a simultaneous search for plausible values for all parameters using comprehensive search algorithms in both pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic or systems pharmacological models. Implementing these methodologies can help address issues related to parameter determination. Furthermore, integrating these approaches with methods developed in the field of machine-learning field has the potential to enhance the reliability of parameter values and the resulting model outputs.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) has emerged as a promising modeling and simulation (M&S) approach in drug development, with potential to improve clinical success rates. While conventional M&S has significantly contributed to quantitative understanding in late preclinical and clinical phases, it falls short in explaining unexpected phenomena and testing hypotheses in the early research phase. QSP presents a solution to these limitations. To harness the full potential of QSP in early preclinical stages, preclinical modelers who are familiar with conventional M&S need to update their understanding of the differences between conventional M&S and QSP. This review focuses on QSP applications during the preclinical stage, citing case examples and sharing our experiences in oncology. We emphasize the critical role of QSP in increasing the probability of success for clinical proof of concept (PoC) when applied from the early preclinical stage. Enhancing the quality of both hypotheses and QSP models from early preclinical stage is of critical importance. Once a QSP model achieves credibility, it facilitates predictions of clinical responses and potential biomarkers. We propose that sequential QSP applications from preclinical stages can improve success rates of clinical PoC, and emphasize the importance of refining both hypotheses and QSP models throughout the process.

Hereditary angioedema (HAE) due to C1-inhibitor deficiency is a rare, debilitating, genetic disorder characterized by recurrent, unpredictable, attacks of edema. The clinical symptoms of HAE arise from excess bradykinin generation due to dysregulation of the plasma kallikrein-kinin system (KKS). A quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model that mechanistically describes the KKS and its role in HAE pathophysiology was developed based on HAE attacks being triggered by autoactivation of factor XII (FXII) to activated FXII (FXIIa), resulting in kallikrein production from prekallikrein. A base pharmacodynamic model was constructed and parameterized from literature data and ex vivo assays measuring inhibition of kallikrein activity in plasma of HAE patients or healthy volunteers who received lanadelumab. HAE attacks were simulated using a virtual patient population, with attacks recorded when systemic bradykinin levels exceeded 20 pM. The model was validated by comparing the simulations to observations from lanadelumab and plasma-derived C1-inhibitor clinical trials. The model was then applied to analyze the impact of nonadherence to a daily oral preventive therapy; simulations showed a correlation between the number of missed doses per month and reduced drug effectiveness. The impact of reducing lanadelumab dosing frequency from 300 mg every 2 weeks (Q2W) to every 4 weeks (Q4W) was also examined and showed that while attack rates with Q4W dosing were substantially reduced, the extent of reduction was greater with Q2W dosing. Overall, the QSP model showed good agreement with clinical data and could be used for hypothesis testing and outcome predictions.

Model-informed drug discovery advocates the use of mathematical modeling and simulation for improved efficacy in drug discovery. In the case of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against cell membrane antigens, this requires quantitative insight into the target tissue concentration levels. Protein mass spectrometry data are often available but the values are expressed in relative, rather than in molar concentration units that are easier to incorporate into pharmacokinetic models. Here, we present an empirical correlation that converts the parts per million (ppm) concentrations in the PaxDb database to their molar equivalents that are more suitable for pharmacokinetic modeling. We evaluate the insight afforded to target tissue distribution by analyzing the likely tumor-targeting accuracy of mAbs recognizing either epidermal growth factor receptor or its homolog HER2. Surprisingly, the predicted tissue concentrations of both these targets exceed the Kd values of their respective therapeutic mAbs. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling indicates that in these conditions only about 0.05% of the dosed mAb is likely to reach the solid tumor target cells. The rest of the dose is eliminated in healthy tissues via both nonspecific and target-mediated processes. The presented approach allows evaluation of the interplay between the target expression level in different tissues that determines the overall pharmacokinetic properties of the drug and the fraction that reaches the cells of interest. This methodology can help to evaluate the efficacy and safety properties of novel drugs, especially if the off-target cell degradation has cytotoxic outcomes, as in the case of antibody-drug conjugates.

Understanding the intricate interactions of cancer cells with the tumor microenvironment (TME) is a pre-requisite for the optimization of immunotherapy. Mechanistic models such as quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) provide insights into the TME dynamics and predict the efficacy of immunotherapy in virtual patient populations/digital twins but require vast amounts of multimodal data for parameterization. Large-scale datasets characterizing the TME are available due to recent advances in bioinformatics for multi-omics data. Here, we discuss the perspectives of leveraging omics-derived bioinformatics estimates to inform QSP models and circumvent the challenges of model calibration and validation in immuno-oncology.

The research & development (R&D) of novel therapeutic agents for the treatment of autoimmune diseases is challenged by highly complex pathogenesis and multiple etiologies of these conditions. The number of targeted therapies available on the market is limited, whereas the prevalence of autoimmune conditions in the global population continues to rise. Mathematical modeling of biological systems is an essential tool which may be applied in support of decision-making across R&D drug programs to improve the probability of success in the development of novel medicines. Over the past decades, multiple models of autoimmune diseases have been developed. Models differ in the spectra of quantitative data used in their development and mathematical methods, as well as in the level of \"mechanistic granularity\" chosen to describe the underlying biology. Yet, all models strive towards the same goal: to quantitatively describe various aspects of the immune response. The aim of this review was to conduct a systematic review and analysis of mathematical models of autoimmune diseases focused on the mechanistic description of the immune system, to consolidate existing quantitative knowledge on autoimmune processes, and to outline potential directions of interest for future model-based analyses. Following a systematic literature review, 38 models describing the onset, progression, and/or the effect of treatment in 13 systemic and organ-specific autoimmune conditions were identified, most models developed for inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, and lupus (5 models each). ≥70% of the models were developed as nonlinear systems of ordinary differential equations, others - as partial differential equations, integro-differential equations, Boolean networks, or probabilistic models. Despite covering a relatively wide range of diseases, most models described the same components of the immune system, such as T-cell response, cytokine influence, or the involvement of macrophages in autoimmune processes. All models were thoroughly analyzed with an emphasis on assumptions, limitations, and their potential applications in the development of novel medicines.