公共交通优先系统,如快速公交(BRT)和高服务水平公交车(BHLS)是低收入和中等收入城市出行的顶级解决方案。科学上一致认为,这些系统的安全性能水平取决于它们的功能,操作,和基础设施特点。然而,需要有更多的证据来证明公共汽车走廊的不同特征如何影响安全。本文旨在通过构建多元负二项模型来比较主干道上的碰撞风险,从而揭示这一领域。BRT,和波哥大的BHLS走廊,哥伦比亚。分析的基础设施包括712.1公里的主干道和标准巴士服务,194.1公里的BRT网络,和135.6公里的BHLS网络。该研究考虑了2015年至2018年的撞车事故-死亡人数,受伤,仅财产损失和30个运营和基础设施变量分为六类-暴露,道路设计,基础设施,公共交通工具,和土地使用。采用多标准过程进行模型选择,包括基于[i]Akaike信息标准的结构和预测能力,[ii]K折交叉验证,和[iii]模型简约。相关发现表明,就观察到的和预期的事故率及其与暴露程度的关系-高峰小时平均年交通量的对数(LOG_AAPHT)和摩托车百分比而言,汽车,公共汽车,和卡车——最大的死亡风险,受伤,和财产损失发生在BHLS网络中。BRT网络在较不严重的碰撞中提供较低的碰撞率,同时增加伤害和死亡人数。在比较BHLS网络和主干道标准设计时,BHLS基础设施,尽管移动性越来越大,在三个分析的网络中提供最低的安全性能。研究的各个因素也可能有助于设计与信号交叉口密度和曲率相关的更安全的道路。这些发现支持了波哥大背景下的独特特征和交通动态,可以为发展中国家其他高密度城市地区的相应当局提供信息和指导。
Public transport priority systems such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Buses with High Level of Service (BHLS) are top-rated solutions to mobility in low-income and middle-income cities. There is scientific agreement that the safety performance level of these systems depends on their functional, operational, and infrastructure characteristics. However, there needs to be more evidence on how the different characteristics of bus corridors might influence safety. This paper aims to shed some light on this area by structuring a multivariate negative binomial model comparing crash risk on arterial roads, BRT, and BHLS corridors in Bogotá, Colombia. The analyzed infrastructure includes 712.1 km of arterial roads with standard bus service, 194.1 km of BRT network, and 135.6 km of BHLS network. The study considered crashes from 2015 to 2018 -fatalities, injuries, and property damage only- and 30 operational and infrastructure variables grouped into six classes -exposure, road design, infrastructure, public means of transport, and land use. A multicriteria process was applied for model selection, including the structure and predictive power based on [i] Akaike information criteria, [ii] K-fold cross-validation, and [iii] model parsimony. Relevant findings suggest that in terms of observed and expected accident rates and their relationship with the magnitude of exposure -logarithm of average annual traffic volumes at the peak hour (LOG_AAPHT) and the percentage of motorcycles, cars, buses, and trucks- the greatest risk of fatalities, injuries, and property damage occurs in the BHLS network. BRT network provides lower crash rates in less severe collisions while increasing injuries and fatalities. When comparing the BHLS network and the standard design of arterial roads, BHLS infrastructure, despite increasing mobility benefits, provides the lowest safety performance among the three analyzed networks. Individual factors of the study could also contribute to designing safer roads related to signalized intersection density and curvature. These findings support the unique characteristics and traffic dynamics present in the context of Bogotá that could inform and guide decisions of corresponding authorities in other highly dense urban areas from developing countries.