BACKGROUND: Postacute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), also known as long COVID, is a broad grouping of a range of long-term symptoms following acute COVID-19. These symptoms can occur across a range of biological systems, leading to challenges in determining risk factors for PASC and the causal etiology of this disorder. An understanding of characteristics that are predictive of future PASC is valuable, as this can inform the identification of high-risk individuals and future preventative efforts. However, current knowledge regarding PASC risk factors is limited.
OBJECTIVE: Using a sample of 55,257 patients (at a ratio of 1 patient with PASC to 4 matched controls) from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative, as part of the National Institutes of Health Long COVID Computational Challenge, we sought to predict individual risk of PASC diagnosis from a curated set of clinically informed covariates. The National COVID Cohort Collaborative includes electronic health records for more than 22 million patients from 84 sites across the United States.
METHODS: We predicted individual PASC status, given covariate information, using Super Learner (an ensemble machine learning algorithm also known as stacking) to learn the optimal combination of gradient boosting and random forest algorithms to maximize the area under the receiver operator curve. We evaluated variable importance (Shapley values) based on 3 levels: individual features, temporal windows, and clinical domains. We externally validated these findings using a holdout set of randomly selected study sites.
RESULTS: We were able to predict individual PASC diagnoses accurately (area under the curve 0.874). The individual features of the length of observation period, number of health care interactions during acute COVID-19, and viral lower respiratory infection were the most predictive of subsequent PASC diagnosis. Temporally, we found that baseline characteristics were the most predictive of future PASC diagnosis, compared with characteristics immediately before, during, or after acute COVID-19. We found that the clinical domains of health care use, demographics or anthropometry, and respiratory factors were the most predictive of PASC diagnosis.
CONCLUSIONS: The methods outlined here provide an open-source, applied example of using Super Learner to predict PASC status using electronic health record data, which can be replicated across a variety of settings. Across individual predictors and clinical domains, we consistently found that factors related to health care use were the strongest predictors of PASC diagnosis. This indicates that any observational studies using PASC diagnosis as a primary outcome must rigorously account for heterogeneous health care use. Our temporal findings support the hypothesis that clinicians may be able to accurately assess the risk of PASC in patients before acute COVID-19 diagnosis, which could improve early interventions and preventive care. Our findings also highlight the importance of respiratory characteristics in PASC risk assessment.
UNASSIGNED: RR2-10.1101/2023.07.27.23293272.

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BACKGROUND: COVID-19 protective behaviors are key interventions advised by the World Health Organization (WHO) to prevent COVID-19 transmission. However, achieving compliance with this advice is often challenging, particularly among socially vulnerable groups.
OBJECTIVE: We developed a social vulnerability index (SVI) to predict individuals\' propensity to adhere to the WHO advice on protective behaviors against COVID-19 and identify changes in social vulnerability as Omicron evolved in African countries between January 2022 and August 2022 and Asia Pacific countries between August 2021 and June 2022.
METHODS: In African countries, baseline data were collected from 14 countries (n=15,375) during the first Omicron wave, and follow-up data were collected from 7 countries (n=7179) after the wave. In Asia Pacific countries, baseline data were collected from 14 countries (n=12,866) before the first Omicron wave, and follow-up data were collected from 9 countries (n=8737) after the wave. Countries\' socioeconomic and health profiles were retrieved from relevant databases. To construct the SVI for each of the 4 data sets, variables associated with COVID-19 protective behaviors were included in a factor analysis using polychoric correlation with varimax rotation. Influential factors were adjusted for cardinality, summed, and min-max normalized from 0 to 1 (most to least vulnerable). Scores for compliance with the WHO advice were calculated using individuals\' self-reported protective behaviors against COVID-19. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess the associations between the SVI and scores for compliance to WHO advice to validate the index.
RESULTS: In Africa, factors contributing to social vulnerability included literacy and media use, trust in health care workers and government, and country income and infrastructure. In Asia Pacific, social vulnerability was determined by literacy, country income and infrastructure, and population density. The index was associated with compliance with the WHO advice in both time points in African countries but only during the follow-up period in Asia Pacific countries. At baseline, the index values in African countries ranged from 0.00 to 0.31 in 13 countries, with 1 country having an index value of 1.00. The index values in Asia Pacific countries ranged from 0.00 to 0.23 in 12 countries, with 2 countries having index values of 0.79 and 1.00. During the follow-up phase, the index values decreased in 6 of 7 African countries and the 2 most vulnerable Asia Pacific countries. The index values of the least vulnerable countries remained unchanged in both regions.
CONCLUSIONS: In both regions, significant inequalities in social vulnerability to compliance with WHO advice were observed at baseline, and the gaps became larger after the first Omicron wave. Understanding the dimensions that influence social vulnerability to protective behaviors against COVID-19 may underpin targeted interventions to enhance compliance with WHO recommendations and mitigate the impact of future pandemics among vulnerable groups.

BACKGROUND: The use of technologies has had a significant impact on patient safety and the quality of care and has increased globally. In the literature, it has been reported that people die annually due to adverse events (AEs), and various methods exist for investigating and measuring AEs. However, some methods have a limited scope, data extraction, and the need for data standardization. In Brazil, there are few studies on the application of trigger tools, and this study is the first to create automated triggers in ambulatory care.
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a machine learning (ML)-based automated trigger for outpatient health care settings in Brazil.
METHODS: A mixed methods research will be conducted within a design thinking framework and the principles will be applied in creating the automated triggers, following the stages of (1) empathize and define the problem, involving observations and inquiries to comprehend both the user and the challenge at hand; (2) ideation, where various solutions to the problem are generated; (3) prototyping, involving the construction of a minimal representation of the best solutions; (4) testing, where user feedback is obtained to refine the solution; and (5) implementation, where the refined solution is tested, changes are assessed, and scaling is considered. Furthermore, ML methods will be adopted to develop automated triggers, tailored to the local context in collaboration with an expert in the field.
RESULTS: This protocol describes a research study in its preliminary stages, prior to any data gathering and analysis. The study was approved by the members of the organizations within the institution in January 2024 and by the ethics board of the University of São Paulo and the institution where the study will take place. in May 2024. As of June 2024, stage 1 commenced with data gathering for qualitative research. A separate paper focused on explaining the method of ML will be considered after the outcomes of stages 1 and 2 in this study.
CONCLUSIONS: After the development of automated triggers in the outpatient setting, it will be possible to prevent and identify potential risks of AEs more promptly, providing valuable information. This technological innovation not only promotes advances in clinical practice but also contributes to the dissemination of techniques and knowledge related to patient safety. Additionally, health care professionals can adopt evidence-based preventive measures, reducing costs associated with AEs and hospital readmissions, enhancing productivity in outpatient care, and contributing to the safety, quality, and effectiveness of care provided. Additionally, in the future, if the outcome is successful, there is the potential to apply it in all units, as planned by the institutional organization.
UNASSIGNED: PRR1-10.2196/55466.

BACKGROUND: Telecare and telehealth are important care-at-home services used to support individuals to live more independently at home. Historically, these technologies have reactively responded to issues. However, there has been a recent drive to make better use of the data from these services to facilitate more proactive and predictive care.
OBJECTIVE: This review seeks to explore the ways in which predictive data analytics techniques have been applied in telecare and telehealth in at-home settings.
METHODS: The PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) checklist was adhered to alongside Arksey and O\'Malley\'s methodological framework. English language papers published in MEDLINE, Embase, and Social Science Premium Collection between 2012 and 2022 were considered and results were screened against inclusion or exclusion criteria.
RESULTS: In total, 86 papers were included in this review. The types of analytics featuring in this review can be categorized as anomaly detection (n=21), diagnosis (n=32), prediction (n=22), and activity recognition (n=11). The most common health conditions represented were Parkinson disease (n=12) and cardiovascular conditions (n=11). The main findings include: a lack of use of routinely collected data; a dominance of diagnostic tools; and barriers and opportunities that exist, such as including patient-reported outcomes, for future predictive analytics in telecare and telehealth.
CONCLUSIONS: All papers in this review were small-scale pilots and, as such, future research should seek to apply these predictive techniques into larger trials. Additionally, further integration of routinely collected care data and patient-reported outcomes into predictive models in telecare and telehealth offer significant opportunities to improve the analytics being performed and should be explored further. Data sets used must be of suitable size and diversity, ensuring that models are generalizable to a wider population and can be appropriately trained, validated, and tested.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in pediatric type 1 diabetes (T1D), occurring in approximately 20% of patients, with an economic cost of $5.1 billion/year in the United States. Despite multiple risk factors for postdiagnosis DKA, there is still a need for explainable, clinic-ready models that accurately predict DKA hospitalization in established patients with pediatric T1D.
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop an interpretable machine learning model to predict the risk of postdiagnosis DKA hospitalization in children with T1D using routinely collected time-series of electronic health record (EHR) data.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study using EHR data from 1787 patients from among 3794 patients with T1D treated at a large tertiary care US pediatric health system from January 2010 to June 2018. We trained a state-of-the-art; explainable, gradient-boosted ensemble (XGBoost) of decision trees with 44 regularly collected EHR features to predict postdiagnosis DKA. We measured the model\'s predictive performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve-weighted F1-score, weighted precision, and recall, in a 5-fold cross-validation setting. We analyzed Shapley values to interpret the learned model and gain insight into its predictions.
RESULTS: Our model distinguished the cohort that develops DKA postdiagnosis from the one that does not (P<.001). It predicted postdiagnosis DKA risk with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (SD 0.04), a weighted F1-score of 0.78 (SD 0.04), and a weighted precision and recall of 0.83 (SD 0.03) and 0.76 (SD 0.05) respectively, using a relatively short history of data from routine clinic follow-ups post diagnosis. On analyzing Shapley values of the model output, we identified key risk factors predicting postdiagnosis DKA both at the cohort and individual levels. We observed sharp changes in postdiagnosis DKA risk with respect to 2 key features (diabetes age and glycated hemoglobin at 12 months), yielding time intervals and glycated hemoglobin cutoffs for potential intervention. By clustering model-generated Shapley values, we automatically stratified the cohort into 3 groups with 5%, 20%, and 48% risk of postdiagnosis DKA.
CONCLUSIONS: We have built an explainable, predictive, machine learning model with potential for integration into clinical workflow. The model risk-stratifies patients with pediatric T1D and identifies patients with the highest postdiagnosis DKA risk using limited follow-up data starting from the time of diagnosis. The model identifies key time points and risk factors to direct clinical interventions at both the individual and cohort levels. Further research with data from multiple hospital systems can help us assess how well our model generalizes to other populations. The clinical importance of our work is that the model can predict patients most at risk for postdiagnosis DKA and identify preventive interventions based on mitigation of individualized risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Radiomics provided opportunities to quantify the tumor phenotype non-invasively. This study extracted contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) radiomic signatures and evaluated clinical features of bone metastasis in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). With the combination of the revealed radiomics and clinical features, the predictive modeling on bone metastasis in NSCLC was established.
METHODS: A total of 318 patients with NSCLC at the Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute & Hospital was enrolled between January 2009 and December 2019, which included a feature-learning cohort (n = 223) and a validation cohort (n = 95). We trained a radiomics model in 318 CECT images from feature-learning cohort to extract the radiomics features of bone metastasis in NSCLC. The Kruskal-Wallis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) were used to select bone metastasis-related features and construct the CT radiomics score (Rad-score). Multivariate logistic regression was performed with the combination of the Rad-score and clinical data. A predictive nomogram was subsequently developed.
RESULTS: Radiomics models using CECT scans were significant on bone metastasis prediction in NSCLC. Model performance was enhanced with each information into the model. The radiomics nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.745 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68,0.80) on predicting bone metastasis in the training set and an AUC of 0.808(95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71,0.88) in the validation set.
CONCLUSIONS: The revealed invisible image features were of significance on guiding bone metastasis prediction in NSCLC. Based on the combination of the image features and clinical characteristics, the predictive nomogram was established. Such nomogram can be used for the auxiliary screening of bone metastasis in NSCLC.

BACKGROUND: A coordinated care system helps provide timely access to treatment for suspected acute stroke. In Northwestern Ontario (NWO), Canada, communities are widespread with several hospitals offering various diagnostic equipment and services. Thus, resources are limited, and health care providers must often transfer patients with stroke to different hospital locations to ensure the most appropriate care access within recommended time frames. However, health care providers frequently situated temporarily (locum) in NWO or providing care remotely from other areas of Ontario may lack sufficient information and experience in the region to access care for a patient with a time-sensitive condition. Suboptimal decision-making may lead to multiple transfers before definitive stroke care is obtained, resulting in poor outcomes and additional health care system costs.
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a tool to inform and assist NWO health care providers in determining the best transfer options for patients with stroke to provide the most efficient care access. We aimed to develop an app using a comprehensive geomapping navigation and estimation system based on machine learning algorithms. This app uses key stroke-related timelines including the last time the patient was known to be well, patient location, treatment options, and imaging availability at different health care facilities.
METHODS: Using historical data (2008-2020), an accurate prediction model using machine learning methods was developed and incorporated into a mobile app. These data contained parameters regarding air (Ornge) and land medical transport (3 services), which were preprocessed and cleaned. For cases in which Ornge air services and land ambulance medical transport were both involved in a patient transport process, data were merged and time intervals of the transport journey were determined. The data were distributed for training (35%), testing (35%), and validation (30%) of the prediction model.
RESULTS: In total, 70,623 records were collected in the data set from Ornge and land medical transport services to develop a prediction model. Various learning models were analyzed; all learning models perform better than the simple average of all points in predicting output variables. The decision tree model provided more accurate results than the other models. The decision tree model performed remarkably well, with the values from testing, validation, and the model within a close range. This model was used to develop the \"NWO Navigate Stroke\" system. The system provides accurate results and demonstrates that a mobile app can be a significant tool for health care providers navigating stroke care in NWO, potentially impacting patient care and outcomes.
CONCLUSIONS: The NWO Navigate Stroke system uses a data-driven, reliable, accurate prediction model while considering all variations and is simultaneously linked to all required acute stroke management pathways and tools. It was tested using historical data, and the next step will to involve usability testing with end users.

UNASSIGNED: Readmission of elderly angina patients has become a serious problem, with a dearth of available prediction tools for readmission assessment. The objective of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML) model that can predict 180-day all-cause readmission for elderly angina patients.
UNASSIGNED: The clinical data for elderly angina patients was retrospectively collected. Five ML algorithms were used to develop prediction models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC), and the Brier score were applied to assess predictive performance. Analysis by Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was performed to evaluate the contribution of each variable.
UNASSIGNED: A total of 1502 elderly angina patients (45.74% female) were enrolled in the study. The extreme gradient boosting (XGB) model showed good predictive performance for 180-day readmission (AUROC = 0.89; AUPRC = 0.91; Brier score = 0.21). SHAP analysis revealed that the number of medications, hematocrit, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were important variables associated with 180-day readmission.
UNASSIGNED: An ML model can accurately identify elderly angina patients with a high risk of 180-day readmission. The model used to identify individual risk factors can also serve to remind clinicians of appropriate interventions that may help to prevent the readmission of patients.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of an acute complicated course in pediatric patients with Acute Hematogenous Osteomyelitis (AHO).
METHODS: A predictive model was developed based on a dataset of 82 pediatric AHO patients. Clinical data, imaging findings, and laboratory results were systematically collected for all patients. Subsequently, biomarker indices were calculated based on the laboratory results to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors influencing early adverse outcomes in AHO. A nomogram model was constructed based on independent factors and validated internally through bootstrap methods. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram model were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. The developed nomogram model was compared with previously published A-score and Gouveia scoring systems.
RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis identified delayed source control, suppurative arthritis, albumin on admission, and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) as independent predictors of early adverse outcomes in pediatric AHO patients. The logistic regression model was formulated as: Log(P) = 7. 667-1.752 × delayed source control - 1.956 × suppurative arthritis - 0.154 × albumin on admission + 0.009 × PLR. The nomogram\'s AUC obtained through Bootstrap validation was 0.829 (95% CI: 0.740-0.918). Calibration plots showed good agreement between predictions and observations. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model achieved net benefits across all threshold probabilities. The predictive efficacy of our nomogram model for acute complicated course in pediatric AHO patients surpassed that of the A-score and Gouveia scores.
CONCLUSIONS: A predictive model for the acute complicated course of pediatric AHO was established based on four variables: delayed source control, suppurative arthritis, albumin on admission, and PLR. This model is practical, easy to use for clinicians, and can aid in guiding clinical treatment decisions.