The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent fragments of the HEV genome could be used for accurate diagnostics and inference of viral population-scale processes. For this, we selected all the published whole genome sequences from the NCBI GenBank and trimmed them to various fragment lengths (ORF1,2,3, ORF1, ORF2, ORF3, 493 nt in ORF2 and 148 nt in ORF2). Each of the fragment lengths was used to infer the richness and diversity of the viral sequence types, typing accuracy, and potential use in phylodynamics. The results obtained from the different fragments were compared. We observed that, generally, the longer the nucleic acid fragment used in typing, the better the accuracy in predicting the viral subtype. However, the dominant HEV subtypes circulating in Europe were relatively well classified even by the 493 nt fragment, with false negative rates as low as 8 in 1000 typed sequences. Most fragments also give comparable results in analyses of population size, albeit with shorter fragments showing a broader 95 % highest posterior density interval and less obvious increase of the viral effective population size. The reconstructed phylogenies of a heterochronous subset indicated a good concordance between all the fragments, with the major clades following similar branching patterns. Furthermore, we have used the HEV sequence data from the Netherlands available in the HEVnet database as a case study for reconstruction of population size changes in the past decades. This data showed that molecular and epidemiological results are concordant and point to an increase in the viral effective population size underlying the observed increase in incidence of acute HEV infection cases. In the absence of whole genome sequencing data, the 493 bp fragment can be used for analyzing HEV strains currently circulating in Europe, as it is informative for describing short term population-scale processes.

A factor constraining the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies is limited information on the size and spatial distribution of free-roaming dog populations (FRDPs). The aim of this study was to develop a statistical model to predict the size of free-roaming dog populations and the spatial distribution of free-roaming dogs in urban areas of Nepal, based on real-world dog census data from the Himalayan Animal Rescue Trust (HART) and Animal Nepal. Candidate explanatory variables included proximity to roads, building density, specific building types, human population density and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). A multivariable Poisson point process model was developed to estimate dog population size in four study locations in urban Nepal, with building density and distance from nearest retail food establishment or lodgings as explanatory variables. The proposed model accurately predicted, within a 95 % confidence interval, the surveyed FRDP size and spatial distribution for all four study locations. This model is proposed for further testing and refinement in other locations as a decision-support tool alongside observational dog population size estimates, to inform dog health and public health initiatives including rabies elimination efforts to support the \'zero by 30\' global mission.

Juvenile survival is critical to population persistence and evolutionary change. However, the survival of juvenile plants from emergence to reproductive maturity is rarely quantified. This is especially true for long-lived perennials with extended pre-reproductive periods. Furthermore, studies rarely have the replication necessary to account for variation among populations and cohorts. We estimated juvenile survival and its relationship to population size, density of conspecifics, distance to the maternal plant, age, year, and cohort for Echinacea angustifolia, a long-lived herbaceous perennial. In 14 remnant prairie populations over seven sampling years, 2007-2013, we identified 886 seedlings. We then monitored these individuals annually until 2021 (8-15 years). Overall, juvenile mortality was very high; for almost all cohorts fewer than 10% of seedlings survived to age 8 or to year 2021. Only two of the seedlings reached reproductive maturity within the study period. Juvenile survival increased with distance from the maternal plant and varied more among the study years than it did by age or cohort. Juvenile survival did not vary with population size or local density of conspecific neighbors. Our results suggest that low juvenile survival could contribute to projected population declines.

BACKGROUND: Population size, prevalence, and incidence are essential metrics that influence public health programming and policy. However, stakeholders are frequently tasked with setting performance targets, reporting global indicators, and designing policies based on multiple (often incongruous) estimates of these variables, and they often do so in the absence of a formal, transparent framework for reaching a consensus estimate.
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to describe a model to synthesize multiple study estimates while incorporating stakeholder knowledge, introduce an R Shiny app to implement the model, and demonstrate the model and app using real data.
METHODS: In this study, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to synthesize multiple study estimates that allow the user to incorporate the quality of each estimate as a confidence score. The model was implemented as a user-friendly R Shiny app aimed at practitioners of population size estimation. The underlying Bayesian model was programmed in Stan for efficient sampling and computation.
RESULTS: The app was demonstrated using biobehavioral survey-based population size estimates (and accompanying confidence scores) of female sex workers and men who have sex with men from 3 survey locations in a country in sub-Saharan Africa. The consensus results incorporating confidence scores are compared with the case where they are absent, and the results with confidence scores are shown to perform better according to an app-supplied metric for unaccounted-for variation.
CONCLUSIONS: The utility of the triangulator model, including the incorporation of confidence scores, as a user-friendly app is demonstrated using a use case example. Our results offer empirical evidence of the model\'s effectiveness in producing an accurate consensus estimate and emphasize the significant impact that the accessible model and app offer for public health. It offers a solution to the long-standing problem of synthesizing multiple estimates, potentially leading to more informed and evidence-based decision-making processes. The Triangulator has broad utility and flexibility to be adapted and used in various other contexts and regions to address similar challenges.

BACKGROUND: HIV surveillance among key populations is a priority in all epidemic settings. Female sex workers (FSWs) globally as well as in Rwanda are disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic; hence, the Rwanda HIV and AIDS National Strategic Plan (2018-2024) has adopted regular surveillance of population size estimation (PSE) of FSWs every 2-3 years.
OBJECTIVE: We aimed at estimating, for the fourth time, the population size of street- and venue-based FSWs and sexually exploited minors aged ≥15 years in Rwanda.
METHODS: In August 2022, the 3-source capture-recapture method was used to estimate the population size of FSWs and sexually exploited minors in Rwanda. The field work took 3 weeks to complete, with each capture occasion lasting for a week. The sample size for each capture was calculated using shinyrecap with inputs drawn from previously conducted estimation exercises. In each capture round, a stratified multistage sampling process was used, with administrative provinces as strata and FSW hotspots as the primary sampling unit. Different unique objects were distributed to FSWs in each capture round; acceptance of the unique object was marked as successful capture. Sampled FSWs for the subsequent capture occasions were asked if they had received the previously distributed unique object in order to determine recaptures. Statistical analysis was performed in R (version 4.0.5), and Bayesian Model Averaging was performed to produce the final PSE with a 95% credibility set (CS).
RESULTS: We sampled 1766, 1848, and 1865 FSWs and sexually exploited minors in each capture round. There were 169 recaptures strictly between captures 1 and 2, 210 recaptures exclusively between captures 2 and 3, and 65 recaptures between captures 1 and 3 only. In all 3 captures, 61 FSWs were captured. The median PSE of street- and venue-based FSWs and sexually exploited minors in Rwanda was 37,647 (95% CS 31,873-43,354), corresponding to 1.1% (95% CI 0.9%-1.3%) of the total adult females in the general population. Relative to the adult females in the general population, the western and northern provinces ranked first and second with a higher concentration of FSWs, respectively. The cities of Kigali and eastern province ranked third and fourth, respectively. The southern province was identified as having a low concentration of FSWs.
CONCLUSIONS: We provide, for the first time, both the national and provincial level population size estimate of street- and venue-based FSWs in Rwanda. Compared with the previous 2 rounds of FSW PSEs at the national level, we observed differences in the street- and venue-based FSW population size in Rwanda. Our study might not have considered FSWs who do not want anyone to know they are FSWs due to several reasons, leading to a possible underestimation of the true PSE.

The spotted lanternfly is an invasive pest for which we lack individual movement data due in part to the difficulty posed by individual identification. We developed a computer-aided method to identify individual adult spotted lanternfly using wing spot patterns from photos processed in the software I3S and demonstrated the method\'s accuracy with lab and field validations. Based on 176 individuals in the lab, we showed that digitizing the spots of one wing allowed a 100% reliable individual identification. The errors due to user input and the variation in the angle of the image were largely negligible compared to inter-individual variations. We applied this method in the context of a mark-recapture experiment to assess the feasibility of this method in the field. We initially identified a total of 84 unique spotted lanternflies, 31 of which were recaptured after four hours along with 49 new individuals. We established that the analysis of recaptures can possibly be automated based on scores and may not require systematic visual pairwise comparison. The demonstration of the effectiveness of this method on relatively small sample sizes makes it a promising tool for field experimentation as well as lab manipulations. Once validated on larger datasets and in different contexts, it will provide ample opportunity to collect useful data on spotted lanternfly ecology that can greatly inform management.

Marine phytoplankton play crucial roles in the Earth\'s ecological, chemical, and geological processes. They are responsible for about half of global primary production and drive the ocean biological carbon pump. Understanding how plankton species may adapt to the Earth\'s rapidly changing environments is evidently an urgent priority. This problem requires evolutionary genetic approaches as evolution occurs at the level of allele frequency change within populations driven by genetic drift and natural selection (microevolution). Plankters such as the coccolithophore Gephyrocapsa huxleyi and the cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus \'marinus\' are among Earth\'s most abundant organisms. In this opinion paper we discuss how evolution in astronomically large populations of superabundant microbes (SAMs) may act fundamentally differently than it does in the populations of more modest size found in well-studied organisms. This offers exciting opportunities to study evolution in the conditions that have yet to be explored and also leads to unique challenges. Exploring these opportunities and challenges is the goal of this article.

In wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), wastewater loads are commonly reported as a per capita value. Census population counts are often used to obtain a population size to normalise wastewater loads. However, the methods used to calculate the population size of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) from census data are rarely reported in the WBE literature. This is problematic because the geographical extents of wastewater catchments and census area units rarely align perfectly with each other and exist at different spatial scales. This complicates efforts to estimate the number of people serviced by WWTPs in these census area units. This study compared four geospatial methods to combine wastewater catchment areas and census area units to calculate the census population size of wastewater treatment plants. These methods were applied nationally to WWTPs across New Zealand. Population estimates varied by up to 73 % between the methods, which could skew comparisons of per capita wastewater loads between sites. Variability in population estimates (relative standard deviation, RSD) was significantly higher in smaller catchments (rs = -0.727, P < .001), highlighting the importance of method selection in smaller sites. Census population estimates were broadly similar to those provided by wastewater operators, but significant variation was observed for some sites (ranging from 42 % lower to 78 % higher, RSD = 262 %). We present a widely applicable method to calculate population size from census, which involves disaggregating census area units by individual properties. The results reinforce the need for transparent reporting to maintain confidence in the comparison of WBE across sites and studies.

In East African savannas, in the rainy season, an elephant dung bolus is usually transformed into a flat mat of dung residue within a few hours. We extracted the coprophilous beetles of a dung mat from a 1 kg bolus after a one-night exposure and counted 13,699 specimens, most of them aphodiine dung beetles. This is the largest number of dung beetles per kilogram of mammal dung ever counted. Given that an elephant produces an average of 160 kg of feces per day, we extrapolate that one adult elephant provides food for 2.12 million dung beetles on any given day. The elephant population in the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem in central Kenya, an elephant-rich environment, can sustain, by sheer extrapolation, 14.3 billion dung beetles in an area of 55,000 km2, which translates to ca. 260,000 dung beetles/km2. The decline or extinction of elephants, at least in East African grasslands, may have a massive cascade effect on the populations of coprophagous beetles and the biota dependent on or gaining an advantage from them.

Populations of rare and endangered species are nowadays in peril due to large-scale habitat conversion, and even sizeable and stable populations are confronted with unexpected challenges. We conducted a full census of a proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) population in Balikpapan Bay and located 292 one-male-multifemale units and 67 all-male units in 2022. Using data on average group size, subsampled from Balikpapan Bay, we estimated a total population size of 3907 individuals. The rate of proboscis monkey habitat loss in Balikpapan Bay has been slowing down to the current 0.69% per year. It is predicted that habitat recovery may exceed habitat loss after 13 years. The Indonesian capital city relocation was announced in 2019 with spatial plans designed to cover a total land area of 2,560 km2 across various habitats until 2045. A total number of 1449 individuals (37.08% of the population) were found on 80.55 km2 (41.29%) of habitat that overlapped with current spatial plans of Nusantara Capital city. The construction work just started; before that, the government had already claimed it would be a \"smart, green, beautiful, and sustainable city\". We, therefore, include our recommendations to mitigate the impact of the construction and to pursue the goal to construct the most sustainable capital city, concerning local biodiversity and thus become a pioneer in a new direction of proboscis monkey conservation.