UNASSIGNED: Kazakhstan has witnessed a significant increase in the number of Autism Spectrum Disorder cases due to the implementation of mechanisms for early detection. However, despite these efforts, accessing quality services and effective interventions for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder remains challenging. While the government has implemented various policies to address the impact of Autism Spectrum Disorder on the labour market, especially for those with disabilities, the effectiveness of these policies needs to be evaluated. Therefore, this article aims to estimate the loss of productivity by calculating the cost of non-working for parents of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder. To achieve this goal, we combine data from official sources with data from our own survey to estimate the loss of productivity using human capital models. In addition, we conduct policy simulations to assess the impact of the existing policy implemented in Kazakhstan that recognises the time of caring for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder and disability as working in the paid labour market. Our results reveal that the productivity loss is substantial, with mothers of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder being particularly affected. Furthermore, based on the outcomes of the policy simulations, it becomes evident that policies solely targeting parents of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder and disability are insufficient to address the labour market gaps and the consequent loss of productivity. To effectively mitigate the impact of Autism Spectrum Disorder in the labour market, a more comprehensive approach is needed. This approach should encompass a broader range of interventions and support mechanisms, including those for individuals without disabilities and parents of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Scenario and policy assessments in socioeconomic and environmental studies face significant challenges in socio-ecological systems (SES). There are a limited number of studies that have looked at the impact of different scenarios within integrated approaches, and many have used a static approach with a single driver of change. The present work analyzes the SES dynamics for a strategic basin in the Colombian Andes when implementing and analyzing scenarios and policies related to land cover and land use change using a system dynamics simulation model. The model includes natural, ecosystem services, sociocultural, and economic components. Scenarios and policy options are analyzed both individually and jointly to identify synergies or trade-off effects between the different SES components. The results showed the different trajectories of the socio-ecological system according to the cases studied, and its impact on different variables in the analyzed components. Some counterintuitive effects were also identified, such as the importance of intrinsic motivations in decision-making processes, and determinants in land management and policy design.

As carbon emission continue to rise and climate issues grow increasingly severe, countries worldwide have taken measures to reduce carbon emission. However, carbon dioxide is continuously flowing in the atmosphere and is easily influenced by neighboring cities\' policies. Therefore, how to solve the problem of carbon emission spillover effect has become the key to improve policy efficiency. Cross-regional carbon governance provides a perspective on solving the carbon emission problem by regulating and guiding the cooperative behavior of cross-regional governance actors. Taking Chengdu-Chongqing area as an example, this study used the SDM to analyze the influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of emission. Then we used the system dynamics method to construct a dual-core carbon emission system, and simulated the spillover effect and emission reduction potential of Chengdu and Chongqing emission reduction policies under different policy schemes. The results reveal that the mobility of population and enterprises have a significant impact on carbon emission prediction. Carbon reduction policies exhibit the phenomena of \"carbon transfer\" and \"free-riding.\" When Chengdu lowers its economic growth rate, it leads to the transfer of high energy-consuming enterprises to Chongqing, increasing carbon emission in Chongqing. The implementation of comprehensive carbon reduction policies in Chongqing has a positive effect on Chengdu. Emission reduction policies exhibit issues related to their temporal efficacy, as the effects of industrial structural policies in Chengdu yield opposite outcomes in the short and long term. Each city\'s unique circumstances necessitate tailored carbon reduction policies. In order to reduce carbon emissions, Chengdu and Chongqing require opposite population policies.

Coal-fired power is one of the largest contributors to China\'s carbon emissions. To promote its national low-carbon transition ambitions, the Chinese government has issued a series of policies to reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants (CFPP) during its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). This study mainly focuses on the mitigation potential of related national policies, using global optimization methods with double constraints on different policy implementation extents and power supply security under different scheduled views of national new energy developments. Thereby, 81 scenarios are set, and policy simulations till 2025 are conducted, achieving emission reductions ranging from 0.39 Gt to 1.04 Gt across scenarios. Specifically, if all policies are implemented as planned, they can bring significant changes, 0.64 Gt CO2 cumulative reduction and 25 Mt/GWh emitting efficiency improvement. But the simulated emission-changing trend shows that they may not be sufficient for the nation\'s target of peaking emissions before 2030, while results in higher-extent scenarios indicate that stronger implementation is required for this target. More relevant recommendations are also provided for subsequent sustainability policies on CFPPs in China.

Water resource shortage and water pollution are prominent and urgent resource and environment problems. Industrial water consumption and sewage discharges account for a large proportion of the total sewage discharge of China. Therefore, scientifically regulating the water consumption and sewage discharge of industrial enterprises can effectively alleviate water scarcity and pollution problems. By establishing a multi-agent model, this study simulates the water use behavior of industrial enterprises, exploring the responses of industrial enterprises to a different type of scenarios for water management that can coordinate economic and environmental benefits. The purpose is to reduce the water consumption and pollutant emissions of industrial enterprises while achieving economic benefits, so as to provide policy references for water authorities. The results show that: 1) The three policies of water price, water resource tax and emission reduction subsidy can effectively regulate the water consumption and sewage discharge of enterprises. 2) Water price and water resource tax rate need to be controlled within a reasonable range. Appropriate water price and water resource tax rate can encourage enterprises to increase R&D investment. On this basis, it is suggested to emphasize the two-way influence of the government and enterprises, continue to implement water resources management policies such as water resources tax, so as to promote the balance between ecology and economy.

Global climate continues to warm; by reducing carbon emission (CE) to cope with climate warming has become a global consensus. The influencing factors of CE exhibit diversification and spatial characteristics, and the complexity of the CE system poses challenges to green and low-carbon development and the realization of China\'s dual-carbon goals. Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, this study explored the influencing factors of CE and designed emission reduction schemes with the help of multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). Based on this, the system dynamics model was used to construct a CE system framework considering multi-dimensional driving factors, so as to combine the complex CE system with the emission reduction countermeasures considering spatial heterogeneity, and realize the dynamic simulation of CE reduction policies. The results showed that the urban agglomeration as a whole will reach carbon peak by 2025. Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Dongguan have achieved carbon peak before 2020, while other cities will reach carbon peak by 2025-2030. The government policy constraints can effectively curb CE, but if government constraints were relaxed, CE will rise and individual cities will not reach carbon peak. Comprehensive CE reduction policies are better than a single CE reduction policy. The study found that this model framework provides a systematic analysis of carbon reduction strategies for urban agglomerations, offering decision-makers various combinations of economic development and green low-carbon objectives. This will further contribute to a multi-faceted mitigation of high emission in urban agglomeration and promote regional sustainable development.

Given that technology transfer provides an important boost for promoting national economic development, technology transfer policy (TTP) has attracted more and more attention from academia and industry. The government issued many policies. However, the implementation effect of TTP still needs to be clarified. This study is carried out from the progressive level of \"text content-influence path-implementation effect.\'\' It aims to adopt a systematic analysis method to analyze policy tools and policy implementation stages, then builds a conceptual framework of the influence path of TTP. Then the relationship between variables in the qualitative model was clarified, and the system dynamics (SD) model was used to build a quantitative model with four feedback loops. Finally, taking Liaoning, China as an example, the system simulation and sensitivity analysis of the main parameters are implemented in Vensim PLE. Different policy tools have different roles in the TTP impact stages of research, transfer, and industrialization. Based on the data of 2013-1019, the SD model constructed in this paper can be used to predict the implementation effect of TTP during 2020-2015. Simulation and sensitivity analysis results provide practical enlightenment for government departments to improve the implementation effect of the existing TTP. This study also provides other researchers with a systematic understanding for improving the implementation effect of TTP with a \"text content-influence path-implementation effect\" conduction chain and provides new insights for further research on TTP.

The economic burden of Pompe disease (PD) is under-researched. This study aimed to fill this gap and provide evidence-based suggestions for policy improvement based on policy simulation.
Data were derived from a nationally based cross-sectional survey on rare diseases in early 2018. Answers from 92 PD patients were used for data analysis and simulation. Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and impoverishment due to illness (IDI) were adopted to measure PD patients\' economic burden. Two typical reimbursement patterns, a dosage-based model and a cost-based model, in China were simulated.
Twenty-four pediatric and 68 adult PD patients were investigated. Families with pediatric PD patients on average had lower annual household incomes than families with adult PD patients (RMB 37 890 vs. RMB 66 120). The direct medical expense and out-of-pocket expenses were almost double for pediatric patients compared with adult patients (RMB 120 050 vs. RMB 66 350; RMB 112 710 vs. RMB 57 940, respectively). The direct non-medical expense for patients was almost six times the expense of adult patients (RMB 73 790 vs. RMB 13 080, respectively). About 88.24% of families with pediatric PD patients and 67.21% of families with adult PD patients suffered from CHE. Around 84.21% of families with pediatric PD patients and 45.90% of families with adult PD patients were forced to live in poverty due to illness. The simulation indicated that, although the two current reimbursement schemes helped reduce CHE, they almost had no effect on reducing IDI; the dosage-based model was more sensitive to changes in policy parameters.
Our study highlighted the alarmingly high disease burden faced by PD patients with first-hand patient-reported evidence. Our series of simulations could be a good reference for China and other countries to improve their reimbursement policy regarding PD.

The vehicle exhaust pollution has become an important source of air pollutant and CO2 emissions, with the continuous growth of the number of vehicles. Focusing on the increasingly serious problems of vehicle exhaust pollution and CO2 emissions, a management model of vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction was established by using system dynamics. Taking Beijing as the case study city, different emission reduction scenarios were designed. Different scenarios are analyzed, and the results reveal the following: (1) Although the carbon tax policy for motor vehicles can play a role in vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction to a certain extent, but as the simulation time goes on, the policy effect is gradually weakened. The emission reduction effect of new energy vehicle promotion policy is not significant, and there is a \"lag effect\" and a \"seesaw effect.\" (2) The science and technology policy has multiple effects of environmental, economic, and health. It can significantly reduce vehicle pollution and carbon emissions, and achieve the peak carbon by 2030. (3) It is not that more policies are better for CO2 emission reduction, and there is a \"crowding out effect\" in the CS. (4) From the perspectives of long term, the science and technology policy is a more effective way to achieve the co-control of CO2 and PM2.5 and achieve the carbon peaking goal compared with other emission reduction scenarios. These results can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate emission reduction policies and realize the management of motor vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction.

Exposure to cold indoor temperature (< 18 degrees Celsius) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and has been identified by the WHO as a source of unhealthy housing. While warming homes has the potential to reduce CVD risk, the reduction in disease burden is not known. We simulated the population health gains from reduced CVD burden if the temperature in all Australian cold homes was permanently raised from their assumed average temperature of 16 degrees Celsius to 20 degrees Celsius.
The health effect of eradicating cold housing through reductions in CVD was simulated using proportional multistate lifetable model. The model sourced CVD burden and epidemiological data from Australian and Global Burden of Disease studies. The prevalence of cold housing in Australia was estimated from the Australian Housing Conditions Survey. The effect of cold indoor temperature on blood pressure (and in turn stroke and coronary heart disease) was estimated from published research.
Eradication of exposure to indoor cold could achieve a gain of undiscounted one and a half weeks of additional health life per person alive in 2016 (base-year) in cold housing through CVD alone. This equates to 0.447 (uncertainty interval: 0.064, 1.34; 3% discount rate) HALYs per 1,000 persons over remainder of their lives through CVD reduction. Eight percent of the total health gains are achievable between 2016 and 2035. Although seemingly modest, the gains outperform currently recommended CVD interventions including persistent dietary advice for adults 5-9% 5 yr CVD risk (0.017 per 1000 people, UI: 0.01, 0.027) and persistent lifestyle program for adults 5-9% 5 yr CVD risk (0.024, UI: 0.01, 0.027).
Cardiovascular health gains alone achievable through eradication of cold housing are comparable with real-life lifestyle and dietary interventions. The potential health gains are even greater given cold housing eradication will also improve respiratory and mental health in addition to cardiovascular disease.