Policy evaluation

政策评价
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    随着人口老龄化,人类健康与生态环境的关系日益受到重视。在中国,必须评估环境保护税(EPT)对改善生态环境和增强中老年人健康的政策效果。
    这项研究,根据中国健康与退休纵向研究(CHARLS)的数据,采用差异差异(DID)模型来评估EPT政策对健康的影响。
    研究结果表明,EPT政策显着改善了中老年人的健康状况,并降低了慢性病的患病率。EPT政策通过减排和心理效应两个主要机制影响中老年人的健康。PM10颗粒浓度和二氧化硫排放量的减少证明了这一点,改善公共睡眠质量和记忆力,以及环境意识和关注的重大变化。
    异质性分析揭示了城乡之间的差异,年龄组,和教育水平。在执行EPT政策之后,农村居民慢性病的减少显着改善,城市居民自评健康状况,老年人和初中以下文化程度的个人的整体健康状况。研究结果证实了环境政策在促进公共卫生方面的重要性,为改进EPT系统提供参考,并为发展中国家的环境污染控制提供见解。
    UNASSIGNED: With the aging population, the relationship between human health and the ecological environment has gained increasing attention. In China, it is imperative to evaluate the policy effects of the Environmental Protection Tax (EPT) on improving the ecological environment and enhancing the health of middle-aged and older adult people.
    UNASSIGNED: This study, based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to assess the health effects of the EPT policy.
    UNASSIGNED: The findings indicate that the EPT policy significantly improves the health of middle-aged and older adult individuals and reduces the prevalence of chronic diseases. The EPT policy affects the health of middle-aged and older adult through two main mechanisms: emission reduction and psychological effects. These are evidenced by reductions in PM10 particle concentration and sulfur dioxide emissions, improvements in public sleep quality and memory, and significant changes in environmental awareness and concern.
    UNASSIGNED: Heterogeneity analysis reveals differences across urban and rural areas, age groups, and education levels. Following the implementation of the EPT policy, there are notable improvements in reduction of chronic diseases among rural residents, self-rated health among urban residents, and overall health among the older adult and individuals with a junior high school education or lower. The study\'s results confirm the importance of environmental policies in promoting public health, providing a reference for the refinement of the EPT system, and offering insights for environmental pollution control in developing countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    环境抵消已被发展为一种机制,以促进经济发展的好处,同时避免或尽量减少环境损害。这是通过在其他地方产生等效的环境改善来补偿一个位置的环境影响来实现的。然而,生物多样性和碳补偿的经验表明,很难确保补偿的完整性。根据大堡礁(GBR)流域的最新立法,澳大利亚,必须通过减少其他地方的污染来抵消新的或扩大的点源开发的水质排放,经常通过减少非点源污染(NPSP)。因此,借鉴生物多样性和碳抵消方面的经验,我们总结了NPSP减少的不确定性来源,这些不确定性会影响水质补偿完整性;估计了污水处理厂对水质补偿的最大潜在需求,GBR流域中总氮(TN)的最大点源发射器,在2018年至2050年之间;并讨论了两者对抵消流域经济发展影响的能力的影响,其中氮负荷对重要的GBR生态系统的健康有很大影响。凯恩斯和麦凯人口中心周围的集水区对氮水质补偿和氮负荷的未来需求都可能很高,对GBR的健康有很大影响。因此,这些集水区的任何低完整性水质补偿都可能危及确保GBR持续健康所需的水质改善进展。作为一种政策工具,水质抵消具有许多优势,但是与环境结果有关的不确定性仍然很大。直到进一步的研究可以减少这些不确定性,在增加点源排放附近实施并具有高度确定性有效性的水质补偿可能会在科学严谨性和政策可操作性之间取得平衡。
    Environmental offsetting has been developed as a mechanism to facilitate the benefits from economic development while avoiding or minimizing environmental harm. This is achieved by compensating for environmental impacts at one location by generating equivalent environmental improvements elsewhere. However, experience with biodiversity and carbon offsetting indicates it can be difficult to ensure the integrity of offsets. Under recent legislation in the catchments of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, it is mandatory for water quality emissions from new or expanded point source development to be offset by reducing pollution elsewhere, frequently through reducing non-point source pollution (NPSP). Therefore, informed by experience with biodiversity and carbon offsetting, we summarised sources of uncertainty in NPSP reduction that would influence water quality offset integrity; estimated the maximum potential demand for water quality offsets from sewage treatment plants, the largest point source emitter of total nitrogen (TN) in the GBR catchments, between 2018 and 2050; and discussed the implications of both on the ability of offsetting to counterbalance the impact of economic development in catchments where nitrogen loads have a large influence on the health of important GBR ecosystems. The catchments surrounding the population centres of Cairns and Mackay had both a potentially high future demand for nitrogen water quality offsets and nitrogen loads with a strong influence on the health of the GBR. Consequently, any low integrity water quality offsets in these catchments could jeopardise progress toward the water quality improvements needed to ensure the continued health of the GBR. Water quality offsetting has numerous strengths as a policy instrument however substantial uncertainties remain related to environmental outcomes. Until further research can reduce these uncertainties, water quality offsets that are implemented near increased point source emissions and have a high certainty of effectiveness may provide a balance between scientific rigour and policy workability.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    导致社会不平等的因素与负面的心理健康结果和心理健康的差异有关。我们提出了贝叶斯分层控制的中断时间序列,以评估政策对人口福祉的影响,同时考虑空间和时间模式。使用英国家庭纵向研究的数据,我们应用这个框架来评估2010年代实施的英国福利改革对参与者心理健康的影响,使用GHQ-12指数测量。我们的发现表明,改革导致暴露组的国家GHQ-12指数增加了2.36%(95%CrI:0.57%-4.37%),调整后为对照组。此外,GHQ-12指数涨幅最大的地理区域来自劣势背景,而不是富裕背景。
    Factors contributing to social inequalities are associated with negative mental health outcomes and disparities in mental well-being. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical controlled interrupted time series to evaluate the impact of policies on population well-being whilst accounting for spatial and temporal patterns. Using data from the UKs Household Longitudinal Study, we apply this framework to evaluate the impact of the UKs welfare reform implemented in the 2010s on the mental health of the participants, measured using the GHQ-12 index. Our findings indicate that the reform led to a 2.36% (95% CrI: 0.57%-4.37%) increase in the national GHQ-12 index in the exposed group, after adjustment for the control group. Moreover, the geographical areas that experienced the largest increase in the GHQ-12 index are from more disadvantage backgrounds than affluent backgrounds.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在这篇文章中,在随机化不可行但程序遵循周期性模式的情况下,我们估计了一系列模型来评估短程序的效果。我们将重点进行实证研究,涉及育儿技能课程,越来越受欢迎。为了评估该计划对父母和子女结果的影响,我们采用两种不同的方法。第一种方法是比较刚刚完成该计划的家庭与即将开始该计划的家庭的结果;第二种方法是比较同一家庭随时间的结果。此外,我们提出了一个模型来测试早期登记的家庭是否与后来登记的家庭有系统差异.我们发现该计划对生活在一个提供机会的地区以及与朋友和家人建立良好关系的重要性的有益影响;在与其他父母分享经验的自信水平;和,总的来说,认为平板电脑和手机对学习有用,可以给父母做某事的机会,可以让孩子平静。此外,我们表明,早期进入课程的家庭在每个方面都不是随机的:他们一贯认为更重要的是很好地融入社区,并为他们的福祉获得文化,最终,他们以不同的方式利用与孩子在一起的时间。
    In this article, we estimate a series of models to evaluate the effects of a short program in a context where randomization is not feasible but the program follows a cyclical pattern. We will focus empirically on a case study involving parenting skills courses, which have become increasingly popular. In order to evaluate the impact of the program on parents\' and children outcomes, we employ two different methods. The first method compares the outcomes of families who have just finished the program with those who are about to start it; the second compares the outcomes of the same families over time. Furthermore, we propose a model to test whether families who enrolled early were systematically different from those who enrolled later. We find beneficial effects of the program on the importance of living in an area that offers opportunities and of having good quality relationships with friends and family; on the level of self-confidence in sharing one\'s experiences with other parents; and, in general, on the opinion that tablets and cell phones can be useful for learning, can give parents the opportunity to do something and can calm children. Moreover, we show that the families who access the course early are not random in every respect: they consistently assign higher importance to being well-integrated into a community and having access to culture for their well-being, and eventually, they utilize their time with children differently.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:自1996年以来,美国38个州已将大麻(医疗和/或成人娱乐)合法化。我们旨在估计国家大麻政策设计的三个维度的影响-制药,总体上的宽松和财政水平,酒精受损,乘员,轻型卡车和行人死亡率。
    方法:对美国各州的观察性研究酒精受损,乘员,1994年至2020年轻型卡车和行人死亡人数。
    方法:分析单位是州一级,由50个州和27年的时间序列数据组成,总共进行了1350个州年观测。
    方法:与酒精损害相关的死亡率,行人,总居住者,乘用车和轻型卡车的死亡率是从国家公路交通安全管理局的死亡分析报告系统获得的,并且每行驶100亿英里的车辆进行标准化。国家大麻政策分为三个捆绑(尺度):制药、宽容和财政。
    结果:药物组合与所有病死率的增加相关[β=0.145;95%置信区间(CI)=0.116-0.173;P<0.000]。许可束与较低的总死亡率相关(β=-0.319;95%CI=-0.361至-0.277;P<0.000)。财政捆绑通常与较高的死亡率相关(β=0.062;95%CI=0.043-0.081;P<0.000),乘员(β=0.070;95%CI=0.042-0.098;P<0.000),轻型卡车(β=0.049;95%CI=0.026-0.072;P<0.000)。
    结论:美国州大麻法规影响交通安全。美国州大麻法规的更大放任似乎与交通死亡率的增加无关,但更大的医疗化和财政运作确实如此。
    OBJECTIVE: Since 1996, 38 US states have legalized access to cannabis (medical and/or adult-use recreational). We aimed to estimate the effect of three dimensions of state cannabis policy design - pharmaceutical, permissive and fiscal - on levels of overall, alcohol-impaired, occupant, light truck and pedestrian fatality rates.
    METHODS: Observational study of US states\' overall, alcohol-impaired, occupant, light truck and pedestrian fatalities between 1994 and 2020.
    METHODS: The unit of analysis was at the state level, consisting of 50 states and 27 years of time series data, resulting in a total of 1350 state-year observations.
    METHODS: Fatality rates associated with alcohol-impaired, pedestrian, total occupant, passenger car and light truck fatality rates were obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and normalized per 10 billion vehicle miles traveled. State cannabis policies are measured in three bundles (scales): pharmaceutical, permissive and fiscal.
    RESULTS: The pharmaceutical bundle was associated with increases in all fatality rates [β = 0.145; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.116-0.173; P < 0.000]. The permissive bundle was associated with lower overall fatality rates (β = -0.319; 95% CI = -0.361 to -0.277; P < 0.000). The fiscal bundle was generally associated with higher fatality rates (β = 0.062; 95% CI = 0.043-0.081; P < 0.000), occupant (β = 0.070; 95% CI = 0.042-0.098; P < 0.000), light trucks (β = 0.049; 95% CI = 0.026-0.072; P < 0.000).
    CONCLUSIONS: US state cannabis regulations influence traffic safety. Greater permissiveness in US state cannabis regulations does not appear to correlate with traffic fatality rate increases, but greater medicalization and fiscal operation does.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于住房在确定健康和福祉结果方面的作用,存在大量证据。尽管住房考虑引起了健康问题的规模,对住房计划的经济分析很少,这些计划旨在通过解决居住环境的物理基础设施来改善健康状况。新南威尔士州健康住房(HfH)计划是一项由新南威尔士州卫生资助和管理的环境健康计划,解决住宅中与健康相关的硬件问题,以确保家庭环境支持健康的生活实践,最终改善居民的健康结果。本研究回顾了已应用于可比计划的经济方法,并确定了应解决的相关成本和收益。建立在决策者的要求上,以及评论中的见解,这篇论文概述了一个成本效益分析的协议,该协议考虑了不同的健康,社会,HfH计划产生的经济和无形利益以及用于实现这些成果的资源。
    Considerable evidence exists regarding the role housing plays in the determination of health and well-being outcomes. Despite the scale of health concerns arising from housing considerations, there are very few economic analyses of housing programs that seek to improve health outcomes by addressing the physical infrastructure of the living environment. The NSW Housing for Health (HfH) program is an environmental health initiative funded and administered by NSW Health, that addresses health-related hardware in residential accommodation to ensure the home environment supports healthy living practices to ultimately improve health outcomes for residents. This study reviews the economic methods that have been applied to comparable programs and identifies relevant costs and benefits that should be addressed. Founded on the requirement from decision makers, and the insights from the review, the paper outlines a protocol for a cost-benefit analysis that accounts for the disparate health, social, economic and intangible benefits generated from the HfH program and the resources utilised to realise these outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    典型的公共政策定量评价将政策视为二元条件,没有进一步关注政策的实施方式。然而,政策实施在政策如何影响行为和健康结果方面发挥着重要作用。以政策为重点的实施科学领域开始考虑如何在定量分析中概念化政策实施(例如,作为调解人或主持人),但是考虑如何衡量政策执行情况以纳入定量工作的工作较少。为了帮助解决这个差距,我们讨论了四个设计考虑的研究人员有兴趣开发或使用三个独立的NIH资助的研究项目研究电子烟的政策执行措施,食物,以及心理健康政策。通过小组讨论开发了这些考虑因素的小型案例研究;我们使用了实现研究逻辑模型来构造讨论。设计考虑因素包括:(1)明确规定所研究政策的执行逻辑,(2)建立一个由具有定量方法专业知识的政策从业人员和研究人员组成的跨学科团队,公共政策和法律,实施科学,和主题知识,(3)采用混合方法进行识别,measure,并分析相关政策执行决定因素和过程,(4)在项目时间表中建立灵活性,以管理由于政策的现实世界性质而导致的延迟和挑战。通过在自己的工作中应用这些考虑因素,研究人员可以更好地确定或制定符合他们需求的政策实施措施。本文强调的三个项目的经验加强了对高质量和可转移的政策执行措施的需求,执行科学家和政策专家之间的合作可能特别富有成果。这些衡量实践为该领域奠定了基础,因为人们越来越注意将政策执行措施纳入定量评估,并将有助于确保研究人员对政策如何影响健康结果有更全面的了解。
    Typical quantitative evaluations of public policies treat policies as a binary condition, without further attention to how policies are implemented. However, policy implementation plays an important role in how the policy impacts behavioral and health outcomes. The field of policy-focused implementation science is beginning to consider how policy implementation may be conceptualized in quantitative analyses (e.g., as a mediator or moderator), but less work has considered how to measure policy implementation for inclusion in quantitative work. To help address this gap, we discuss four design considerations for researchers interested in developing or identifying measures of policy implementation using three independent NIH-funded research projects studying e-cigarette, food, and mental health policies. Mini case studies of these considerations were developed via group discussions; we used the implementation research logic model to structure our discussions. Design considerations include (1) clearly specifying the implementation logic of the policy under study, (2) developing an interdisciplinary team consisting of policy practitioners and researchers with expertise in quantitative methods, public policy and law, implementation science, and subject matter knowledge, (3) using mixed methods to identify, measure, and analyze relevant policy implementation determinants and processes, and (4) building flexibility into project timelines to manage delays and challenges due to the real-world nature of policy. By applying these considerations in their own work, researchers can better identify or develop measures of policy implementation that fit their needs. The experiences of the three projects highlighted in this paper reinforce the need for high-quality and transferrable measures of policy implementation, an area where collaboration between implementation scientists and policy experts could be particularly fruitful. These measurement practices provide a foundation for the field to build on as attention to incorporating measures of policy implementation into quantitative evaluations grows and will help ensure that researchers are developing a more complete understanding of how policies impact health outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    通过收集直到7月2日第一波COVID-19大流行期间127个国家/地区采取的各种控制政策,2020年,我们通过多元线性回归的组合,定量评估其对疫情动态的影响,基于神经网络的非线性回归和敏感性分析。这些国家的公共卫生政策存在显著差异,这在很大程度上影响了传播率和感染人口规模。几个关键的动力学特征,就像第100天和一半时间的确诊/治愈/死亡病例的归一化累积数量一样,与控制措施具有统计上显著的线性相关性,从而证实了它们的巨大影响。最重要的是,我们对SEIR-QD模型进行中介分析,一般车厢模型的代表,通过对并行操作的多个介体使用结构方程建模。这个,据我们所知,是流行病学领域中的第一个。证实了SEIR-QD模型的感染率和保护率在控制措施和流行病的动力学特征之间表现出统计学上显着的中介作用。从第2类控制措施到四个动力学特征的路径通过感染率的中介效应,强调了核酸检测和疑似病例追踪在遏制疫情传播方面的关键作用。我们的数据驱动分析更深入地了解了公共卫生政策的有效性与COVID-19流行病的动态特征之间的内在相关性。
    By collecting various control policies taken by 127 countries/territories during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic until July 2nd, 2020, we evaluate their impacts on the epidemic dynamics quantitatively through a combination of the multiple linear regression, neural-network-based nonlinear regression and sensitivity analysis. Remarkable differences in the public health policies are observed across these countries, which affect the spreading rate and infected population size to a great extent. Several key dynamical features, like the normalized cumulative numbers of confirmed/cured/death cases on the 100th day and the half time, show statistically significant linear correlations with the control measures, which thereby confirms their dramatic impacts. Most importantly, we perform the mediation analysis on the SEIR-QD model, a representative of general compartment models, by using the structure equation modeling for multiple mediators operating in parallel. This, to the best of our knowledge, is the first of its kind in the field of epidemiology. The infection rate and the protection rate of the SEIR-QD model are confirmed to exhibit a statistically significant mediation effect between the control measures and dynamical features of epidemics. The mediation effect along the pathway from control measures in Category 2 to four dynamical features through the infection rate, highlights the crucial role of nucleic acid testing and suspected cases tracing in containing the spread of the epidemic. Our data-driven analysis offers a deeper insight into the inherent correlations between the effectiveness of public health policies and the dynamic features of COVID-19 epidemics.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文利用CEPIIBACI数据库2007-2019年的数据,结合社会网络分析方法,分析了我国体育用品出口的基本特征,并运用差分法评价了"一带一路"倡议实施对我国体育用品出口影响的政策效应。研究结果如下:1)我国体育用品出口总体规模不断扩大,以出口总量快速增长为标志。出口货物展示了各种各样的产品类别,表明产品的结构组成正在演变。地理上,出口目的地广泛,涵盖了各种各样的国家。然而,体育用品出口有明显的集中趋势,体操和田径设备是主要的出口商品。这些体育用品主要渗透东南亚市场,西亚,和东欧。在与“一带一路”倡议相关的体育用品贸易网络中,中国发挥着核心作用,泰国,土耳其,波兰逐步向中心位置迈进。2)“一带一路”倡议的实施对我国体育用品出口产生了积极影响,政策对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的影响尤为显著。政策的实施不利于体育用品出口的喘息增长,但它确实促进了出口产品的深化。基于这些观点,中国必须建立一个强大和可持续的贸易网络,积极促进体育外交,保持战略重点,并提高产品质量,以有效推动体育强国的发展。
    The paper analyzes the basic characteristics of China\'s sporting goods exports using data from the CEPII BACI database from 2007 to 2019, combined with the social network analysis method, and evaluates the policy effect of the \"Belt and Road\" initiative implementation on the impact of China\'s sporting goods exports using the difference-in-differences method. The research findings are as follows: 1) The overall scale of China\'s sporting goods exports has consistently expanded, marked by a rapid increase in the total export volume. The exported goods exhibit a comprehensive range of product categories, indicating an ongoing evolution in the structural composition of products. Geographically, the export destinations are widespread, covering a diverse range of countries. However, there is a noticeable concentration trend in sporting goods exports, with gymnastics and track and field equipment being the primary export commodities. These sporting goods predominantly penetrate markets in Southeast Asia, West Asia, and Eastern Europe. In the sporting goods trade network associated with the \"Belt and Road\" initiative, China holds a central role, with Thailand, Turkey, and Poland progressively advancing toward central positions. 2) The implementation of the \"Belt and Road\" initiative has had a positive impact on China\'s sporting goods exports, and the policy\'s influence is particularly significant on the countries and regions along the \"Belt and Road\". The implementation of the policy does not favor the breathing growth of sporting goods exports, but it does promote the deepening of the export product. Based on these perspectives, it is imperative for China to establish a robust and sustainable trade network, proactively foster sporting diplomacy, maintain strategic focus, and enhance product quality to effectively propel the development of a sporting powerhouse.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    民族医药协调发展是健康中国稳步建设的基本要求。这一过程包括密切关注国内外政策,包括变化,通过政策的优化;塑造民族医药发展的新方向;实现全面的技术和产业升级。因此,保证我国民族医药的全面发展仍然是一个巨大的挑战。
    本文以国家和地方政府出台的民族医药相关政策为研究对象,and,通过政策发布机构的充分解释,政策内容,和政策有效性,深入分析了政策在民族医药中的作用现状,探讨了政策类型的分布,主体合作模式,和各种维度的评分水平。
    这项研究发现,在医药改革的新时代,国家缺乏各种特殊的民族医学政策,中央和地方两级政策工具的使用也不平衡,以及需要进一步加强政策执行的协同作用。
    仍然需要继续改进政策评估系统,优化政策工具使用结构,并通过加强跨省、多部门合作,提高国家医药政策的应用率和执行率,促进我国民族医药产业振兴。
    UNASSIGNED: The coordinated development of ethnic medicine is a basic necessity for steady construction of a healthy China. This process includes closely following domestic and foreign policies, including changes, through the optimization of policies; shaping the new direction of the development of national medicine; and achieving comprehensive technological and industrial upgrades. As such, ensuring the all-round development of national medicine in China remains a great challenge.
    UNASSIGNED: This paper takes the relevant policies of national and local ethnic medicine issued by the government as the research object, and, through the full interpretation of the policy-issuing body, policy content, and policy effectiveness, deeply analyzes the current situation of the policy\'s role in ethnic medicine and explores the distribution of policy types, subject-cooperation modes, and scoring levels in various dimensions.
    UNASSIGNED: This study found that, in the new era of pharmaceutical reform, the State lacks a variety of special policies on ethnomedicine, and there is also an imbalance in the use of policy tools at both the central and local levels as well as synergies in the implementation of policies that need to be further strengthened.
    UNASSIGNED: There remains a need to continue to improve the policy-evaluation system, optimize the structure for the use of policy tools, and improve the rates of application and implementation of the national medicine policy by strengthening cross-provincial and multisectoral cooperation to promote the revitalization of the national medicine industry in China.
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