The objectives of this study are to analyze the market response by: (a) examining the consequences of the domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal prices policy on the difference in abnormal return (AR) prior to and after the announcement; (b) determine the effect of DMO policy announcements on coal prices on trading volume activity (TVA). This research examined daily stock returns on the shares of 19 coal companies listed on the Stock Exchange in 2018, ten days before and after the DMO announcement (February 23 to March 23, 2018). Statistical analysis was used to calculate the average abnormal return (AAR) and trading volume activity (TVA). The results showed that the announcement of domestic market obligation (DMO) received a negative response from the market. This study also found that the abnormal return was negative eight days before the DMO announcement. This study also finds the cause of overreaction in the short term, namely a significant price reversal process immediately after the announcement of the DMO. The paired sample t-test found an insignificant difference in abnormal returns after or before the announcement of the DMO on coal prices policy on companies listed on the IDX for the 2018 period. While testing the TVA, a significant difference was found before and after the announcement of the coal DMO selling price policy.

The objective of this paper is to examine the overreaction behavior of 20 commodity futures based on intraday data from November 20, 2019 to June 3, 2020 with a focus on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. A dynamic and non-parametric approach is applied on intraday data for four different frequencies (from 1 min to 1 h) and two different sub-periods (pre-Covid-19 pandemic and during Covid-19 pandemic) in order to detect overreaction behavior which is defined as a large change of prices followed by proportional price reversals. Our empirical findings show that the overreaction hypothesis is confirmed for the considered commodity futures. Furthermore, both the number and the amplitude of overreactions is higher during the Covid-19 pandemic. Our findings also indicate that soft and metal commodities show much less overreactions than precious metals and especially energy commodities. In particular, crude oil futures exhibit a different overreaction behavior compared to other commodities since it has a higher number of negative than positive overreactions during the Covid-19 pandemic. We also find that the data frequency is independent of the overreacting behavior in both periods as the results continuously improve when having more observations due to higher frequencies. Finally, we find that extreme overreactions during the Covid-19 pandemic provide a great potential for profitable trading returns, which can be exploited by traders.

This study investigates the stock performance of industries in the panic, rebound, and post-V-shaped periods separated by Covid-19 events in Taiwan, in which industries are classified as the detrimental, impaired, neutral, and beneficial groups. Prices of these four industries slumped about the same in the panic period but subsequently rose differently in the rebound and post-V-shaped periods, implying that investors make investment decisions by perception when facing dread risk but by analytic assessments after dread risk recedes. Regression tests show that prices of individual stocks in the same industry dropped differently in the panic period, reflecting investors\' bounded rationality in that they are emotional at the industry level but rational at the firm level. Also, logistic regressions indicate that investors tend to be overoptimistic about the impaired and detrimental industries in the rebound period. More than 10% of firms repurchased their stocks but only a small portion of firms issued equity in the Covid-19 period, revealing that firms would participate in short-run trading but halt long-run investments when facing uncertainty. This study contributes to the literature by showing investors\' behavior and firms\' actions in different periods of Covid-19.

This article describes the efforts made by the Israeli government to contain the spread of COVID-19, which were implemented amidst a constitutional crisis and a yearlong electoral impasse, under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was awaiting a trial for charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust. It thereafter draws on the disproportionate policy perspective to ascertain the ideas and sensitivities that placed key policy responses on trajectories which prioritized differential policy responses over general, nation-wide solutions (and vice versa), even though data in the public domain supported the selection of opposing policy solutions on epidemiological or social welfare grounds. The article also gauges the consequences and implications of the policy choices made in the fight against COVID-19 for the disproportionate policy perspective. It argues that Prime Minister Netanyahu employed disproportionate policy responses both at the rhetorical level and on the ground in the fight against COVID-19; that during the crisis, Netanyahu enjoyed wide political leeway to employ disproportionate policy responses, and the general public exhibited a willingness to tolerate this; and (iii) that ascertaining the occurrence of disproportionate policy responses is not solely a matter of perception.

This study examines the short-term impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on 52 listed airline companies around the world by using event study methodology. The results demonstrate that airline stock returns decline more significantly than the market returns after three major COVID-19 announcements were made. Overall, investors react differently during the three selected events. The strongest overreaction is noted in the post-event period of the World Health Organization\'s and President Trump\'s official announcements. Moreover, the findings confirm that traders in Western countries are more responsive to recent information than the rest of the world. The findings call for immediate policy designs in order to alleviate the impact of the pandemic in the airline industry around the globe.

This article seeks to improve our understanding of what policy over- and under-design mean; what are the consequences of these suboptimal designs; and how politics matters to these designs. Based on the review of the literature and a variety of examples that focus on the role of information quality in policy design, and drawing on two phenomena from the field of epidemiology (namely, over-adjustment and unnecessary adjustment), the article enhances the definitional clarity of the terms under investigation and allows us to address the difficulty in reconciling technical problem solving with politics. The article proposes new definitional statements of proportionate and disproportionate policy designs that vary according to the extent to which the main design properties are adjusted to low-quality information. It also explores distinct variations in a few policy characteristics resulting from over- and under-design. The policy characteristics examined here include economic efficiency, policy effectiveness, policy robustness; the space for making significant changes at a later stage when high-quality information becomes available; the potential consequences in terms of policy over- and under-reaction; and the political ramifications of these suboptimal designs for elected executives. With regard to the interaction between technical and political logics, the article posits that deliberate policy over- and under-design can be viewed as solutions to serious political problems faced by elected executives, especially in politically sensitive times. Therefore, it facilitates a more realistic understanding of the conditions under which a policy is under- or over-designed to respond to some objectives but entirely proportionate with regard to others.

This paper uses the 2003 Hong Kong Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic as a natural experiment to investigate how housing markets react to extreme events. A panel data set of large-scale housing complexes (estates) is used to exploit the cross-sectional variation in the spread of SARS to estimate the effect of the disease on real estate prices and sales. SARS risk is measured by: (1) the estate-level SARS infection rate, (2) news reports, and (3) government announcements of infections. The average price declines by 1-3 percent if an estate is directly affected by SARS, and by 1.6 percent for all estates as a result of the outbreak of the disease. A back-of-the-envelope calculation of the expected price fall under the rational asset-pricing model implies that the economic value of life consistent with the SARS-related price movement was less than $1 million. This low figure contrasts with the predictions of overreaction from psychological and behavioral economics theories. An analysis of transaction volume suggests that the absence of price overreaction is likely to be related to housing market characteristics, including transaction costs, credit constraints and loss aversion.

Football scores are an imperfect measure of a team\'s ability, and consequently exaggerate differences in abilities. Those teams that perform the best and the worst are not really so far from average in their ability; thus their future performances regress to the mean. Betting data indicate that gamblers do not fully account for this regression.

BACKGROUND: The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in South Korea was a serious threat to public health, and was exacerbated by the inappropriate responses of major institutions and the public. This study examined the sources of confusion during the MERS outbreak and identified the factors that can affect people\'s behavior.
METHODS: An online survey of the risk perception of university students in South Korea was performed after the epidemic had peaked. The questionnaire addressed the major social determinants in South Korea during the MERS epidemic. The analysis included data from 1,470 subjects who provided complete answers.
RESULTS: The students had 53.5% of the essential knowledge about MERS. Women showed higher risk perception than men, and trust in the media was positively associated with risk perception (P < .001). Additionally, risk perception was positively associated with overreaction by the public (odds ratio, 2.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.17-3.60; P < .001). These findings suggest that media content affected the public\'s perception of MERS risk and that perception of a high level of risk led to overreaction.
CONCLUSIONS: Risk perception was associated with most of the social factors examined and overreaction by the public. Therefore, providing accurate information and data to the public, establishing trust, and facilitating the development of an attitude will all be important in future crises.