The near-surface lapse rate reflects the atmospheric stability above the surface. Lapse rates calculated from land surface temperature (γTs) and near-surface air temperature (γTa) have been widely used. However, γTs and γTa have different sensitivity to local surface energy balance and large-scale energy transport and therefore they may have diverse spatial and temporal variability, which has not been clearly illustrated in existing studies. In this study, we calculated and compared γTa and γTs at ~ 2200 stations over China from 1961 to 2014. This study finds that γTa and γTs have a similar multiyear national average (0.53 °C/100 m) and seasonal cycle. Nevertheless, γTs shows steeper multiyear average than γTa at high latitudes, and γTs in summer is steeper than γTa, especially in Northwest China. The North China shows the shallowest γTa and γTs, then inhibiting the vertical diffusion of air pollutants and further reducing the lapse rates due to accumulation of pollutants. Moreover, the long-term trend signs for γTa and γTs are opposite in northern China. However, the trends in γTa and γTs are both negative in Southwest China and positive in Southeast China. Surface incident solar radiation, surface downward longwave radiation and precipitant frequency jointly can account for 80% and 75% of the long-term trends in γTa and γTs in China, respectively, which provides an explanation of trends of γTa and γTs from perspective of surface energy balance.

Climate change has attracted significant attention due to its increasing impacts on various aspects of the world, and future climate projections are of vital importance for associated adaptation and mitigation, particularly at the regional scale. However, the skill level of the model projections over China in the past more than ten years remains unknown. In this study, we retrospectively investigate the skill of climate models within the Third (TAR), Fourth (AR4), and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the near-term projections of near-surface (2 m) air temperature changes in China. Those models are revealed to be skillful in projecting the subsequent climatology and trend of the temperature changes in China during 2002-2018 from several to ten years ahead, with higher scores for the climatology than for the trend. The model projections display cold biases against observations in most of China, while the nationally averaged trend is overestimated by TAR models during 2002-2018 but underestimated by AR4 models during 2008-2018. For all emission scenarios, there is no obvious difference between the equal- and unequal-weighted averages based on the arithmetic averaging and reliability ensemble averaging method respectively, however the uncertainty range of projection is narrowed after weighting. The near-term temperature projections differ slightly among various emission scenarios for the climatology but are largely different for the trend.

The commonly used weather stations cannot fully capture the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface air temperature (Tair), leading to exposure misclassification and biased health effect estimates. We aimed to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of Tair data in Germany by using multi-stage modeling to estimate daily 1 × 1 km minimum (Tmin), mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) Tair and diurnal Tair range during 2000-2020. We used weather station Tair observations, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST), elevation, vegetation and various land use predictors. In the first stage, we built a linear mixed model with daily random intercepts and slopes for LST adjusted for several spatial predictors to estimate Tair from cells with both Tair and LST available. In the second stage, we used this model to predict Tair for cells with only LST available. In the third stage, we regressed the second stage predictions against interpolated Tair values to obtain Tair countrywide. All models achieved high accuracy (0.91 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.98) and low errors (1.03 °C ≤ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≤ 2.02 °C). Validation with external data confirmed the good performance, locally, i.e., in Augsburg for all models (0.74 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.99, 0.87 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.05 °C) and countrywide, for the Tmean model (0.71 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.99, 0.79 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.19 °C). Annual Tmean averages ranged from 8.56 °C to 10.42 °C with the years beyond 2016 being constantly hotter than the 21-year average. The spatial variability within Germany exceeded 15 °C annually on average following patterns including mountains, rivers and urbanization. Using a case study, we showed that modeling leads to broader Tair variability representation for exposure assessment of participants in health cohorts. Our results indicate the proposed models as suitable for estimating nationwide Tair at high resolution. Our product is critical for temperature-based epidemiological studies and is also available for other research purposes.

Local-scale microclimatic conditions in forest understoreys play a key role in shaping the composition, diversity and function of these ecosystems. Consequently, understanding what drives variation in forest microclimate is critical to forecasting ecosystem responses to global change, particularly in the tropics where many species already operate close to their thermal limits and rapid land-use transformation is profoundly altering local environments. Yet our ability to characterize forest microclimate at ecologically meaningful scales remains limited, as understorey conditions cannot be directly measured from outside the canopy. To address this challenge, we established a network of microclimate sensors across a land-use intensity gradient spanning from old-growth forests to oil-palm plantations in Borneo. We then combined these observations with high-resolution airborne laser scanning data to characterize how topography and canopy structure shape variation in microclimate both locally and across the landscape. In the processes, we generated high-resolution microclimate surfaces spanning over 350 km2 , which we used to explore the potential impacts of habitat degradation on forest regeneration under both current and future climate scenarios. We found that topography and vegetation structure were strong predictors of local microclimate, with elevation and terrain curvature primarily constraining daily mean temperatures and vapour pressure deficit (VPD), whereas canopy height had a clear dampening effect on microclimate extremes. This buffering effect was particularly pronounced on wind-exposed slopes but tended to saturate once canopy height exceeded 20 m-suggesting that despite intensive logging, secondary forests remain largely thermally buffered. Nonetheless, at a landscape-scale microclimate was highly heterogeneous, with maximum daily temperatures ranging between 24.2 and 37.2°C and VPD spanning two orders of magnitude. Based on this, we estimate that by the end of the century forest regeneration could be hampered in degraded secondary forests that characterize much of Borneo\'s lowlands if temperatures continue to rise following projected trends.