NCP

NCP
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    霍乱仍然是埃塞俄比亚的一个重大公共卫生问题。超过1590万埃塞俄比亚人,占总人口的15%,生活在有霍乱反复爆发史的地区。过去9年的国家霍乱监测数据显示,该国每年都会爆发霍乱。目前的霍乱爆发,从2022年8月开始,影响了整个国家,2022年报告病例841例,病死率(CFR)为3.13%,2023年报告病例>3万例,CFR接近1.4%。根据“结束霍乱-到2030年的全球路线图”,埃塞俄比亚政府致力于消除该国的霍乱,并制定了“国家霍乱消除计划(NCP):2022-2028”,目标是到2028年实现霍乱热点地区的零本地传播,并比最近(2020-2022年)平均1.8%的CFR减少90%的死亡人数。该计划是多部门的,有明确的协调平台,包含所有干预措施,并进行深入的情境分析,符合现有的计划和战略,并在区域一级进行级联,并与现有的政府和公共结构一起实施。全国范围内,共确定了118个霍乱热点地区(区),并评估了现有霍乱疫情应对能力的全面情况分析。这个多部门和多年的NCP已经预测了约4.04亿美元的预算估计,其中>90%用于改善该国的水,卫生,卫生(2.22亿美元;占NCP总预算的55%)和病例管理(1.49亿美元;37%)。NCP中包含的霍乱疫苗接种策略在选定的霍乱热点地区展示了5年口服霍乱疫苗(OCV)引入计划,包括2剂(30604889剂)和单剂量(3031266剂)。然而,由于缺乏财政支持,其实施受到挑战,无法获得针对目标热点的疫苗(由于OCV全球库存中当前剂量不足),反复爆发霍乱,以及该国高度的人道主义需求。建议建立一个可持续的财务机制来支持实施,按照要求的疫苗剂量,重组计划协调平台,促进实施。
    Cholera remains a significant public health concern in Ethiopia. More than 15.9 million Ethiopians, constituting 15% of the total population, live in areas with a history of recurrent cholera outbreaks. The last 9 years of national cholera surveillance data show the country has been experiencing cholera outbreaks every year. The current cholera outbreak, starting in August 2022, has affected the entire country, with 841 reported cases and a 3.13% case fatality rate (CFR) in 2022, and >30 000 cases with nearly a 1.4% CFR in 2023. In line with \"Ending Cholera-A Global Roadmap to 2030,\" the government of Ethiopia is committed to eliminate cholera in the country and has prepared its \"National Cholera Elimination Plan (NCP): 2022-2028\" with aims to achieve zero local transmission in cholera hotspot areas by 2028 and 90% fatality reduction from the recent (2020-2022) average of 1.8% CFR. The plan is multisectoral, has a clear coordination platform, contains all interventions with in-depth situational analysis, is concordant with existing plans and strategies, and is cascaded at the regional level and implemented with existing government and public structures. Nationwide, total 118 cholera hotspot woredas (districts) were identified, and a comprehensive situation analysis of the existing cholera outbreak response capacity was assessed. This multisectoral and multiyear NCP has forecasted around US$404 million budget estimates with >90% allocated to improving the country\'s water, sanitation, and hygiene (US$222 million; 55% of total NCP budget) and case management (US$149 million; 37%). The cholera vaccination strategy included in the NCP exhibited a 5-year oral cholera vaccine (OCV) introduction plan with 2 doses (30 604 889 doses) and single dose (3 031 266 doses) in selected cholera hotspot areas. However, its implementation is challenged due to a lack of financial support, inability to get the requested vaccine for targeted hotspot woredas (due to the current shortage of doses in the OCV global stockpile), recurrent cholera outbreaks, and high humanitarian needs in the country. It is recommended to have a sustainable financial mechanism to support implementation, follow the requested vaccine doses, and reorganize the planned coordination platform to foster the implementation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    华北平原是中国三大平原之一,也是粮食的重要地区,棉花,和石油生产。在区域热液变化的影响下,地下水过度开采,和海水入侵,植被覆盖率正在不断变化。然而,对降水影响的综合评估,温度,NCP海洋沉积区植被上的地下水缺乏。黑龙江岗盆地(HB)位于NCP东部的低洼平原地区,这是NCP的一部分。在这项研究中,选择HB作为典型的感兴趣区域。我们收集了一系列数据,包括归一化植被指数(NDVI),降水,温度,地下水埋深,和2001年至2020年的总溶解固体(TDS)。然后分析了植被的时空变化,并探讨了植被变化的潜在驱动机制。结果表明,NDVI在2001年至2004年期间快速增长,随后在2004年至2020年期间稳定波动。在过去的二十年中,HB的植被取得了整体改善,76%的人有所改善,主要在中部和东部地区,24%在其他地区表现出恶化。从2001年到2020年,NDVI与降水呈正相关,而它与温度的关系在正负之间波动,并且没有统计学意义。NDVI与地下水埋深的协同变化存在一个阈值。当地下水埋深低于3.8m时,NDVI随地下水深度急剧增加。然而,超过这个门槛,NDVI趋于稳定和波动。在东部沿海地区,NDVI与地下水埋深呈强正相关,受地下水深度控制的表层土壤TDS的影响。在中部地区,观察到强烈的负相关,其中NDVI主要受地下水控制下的土壤水分影响。在西部和南部,存在很强的正相关,NDVI主要受地下水开采强度的影响。因此,降水和地下水是HB植被时空变化的主要驱动力,而相比之下,温度的影响是不确定的。本研究阐明了植被响应的机制,为减轻影响植被生长的不利因素和制定NCP合理的用水法规提供理论依据。
    The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the three great plains in China and also serves as a vital region for grain, cotton, and oil production. Under the influence of regional hydrothermal changes, groundwater overexploitation, and seawater intrusion, the vegetation coverage is undergoing continuous alterations. However, a comprehensive assessment of impacts of precipitation, temperature, and groundwater on vegetation in marine sedimentary regions of the NCP is lacking. Heilonggang Basin (HB) is located in the low-lying plain area in the east of NCP, which is part of the NCP. In this study, the HB was chosen as a typical area of interest. We collected a series of data, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation, temperature, groundwater depth, and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) from 2001 to 2020. Then the spatiotemporal variation in vegetation was analyzed, and the underlying driving mechanisms of vegetation variation were explored in this paper. The results show that NDVI experiences a rapid increase from 2001 to 2004, followed by stable fluctuations from 2004 to 2020. The vegetation in the HB has achieved an overall improvement in the past two decades, with 76% showing improvement, mainly in the central and eastern areas, and 24% exhibiting deterioration in other areas. From 2001 to 2020, NDVI correlates positively with precipitation, whereas its relationship with temperature fluctuates between positive and negative, and is not statistically significant. There is a threshold for the synergistic change of NDVI and groundwater depth. When the groundwater depth is lower than 3.8 m, NDVI increases sharply with groundwater depth. However, beyond this threshold, NDVI tends to stabilize and fluctuate. In the eastern coastal areas, NDVI exhibits a strong positive correlation with groundwater depth, influenced by the surface soil TDS controlled by groundwater depth. In the central regions, a strong negative correlation is observed, where NDVI is primarily impacted by soil moisture under the control of groundwater. In the west and south, a strong positive correlation exists, with NDVI primarily influenced by the intensity of groundwater exploitation. Thus, precipitation and groundwater are the primary driving forces behind the spatiotemporal variability of vegetation in the HB, while in contrast, the influence of temperature is uncertain. This study has elucidated the mechanism of vegetation response, providing a theoretical basis for mitigating adverse factors affecting vegetation growth and formulating rational water usage regulations in the NCP.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    病理性疼痛来自伤害性系统功能障碍,导致疼痛回路活动加剧。各种形式的电路可塑性,例如中央敏化,突触可塑性,稳态可塑性,和激发/抑制平衡,有助于疼痛发病过程中神经回路的功能障碍。最近,脊髓背角(SDH)的一种新形式的可塑性,命名为神经回路极化(NCP),在HIV-1gp120和慢性吗啡给药诱导的疼痛模型中发现。NCP表现为兴奋性神经元中兴奋性突触后电流(EPSC)的增加和抑制性神经元中EPSC的减少,可能促进疼痛回路的过度激活。NCP的表达与星形胶质增生有关。反应性星形胶质细胞的消融或星形胶质细胞增生的抑制阻断NCP和,同时,gp120或吗啡引起的疼痛的发展。在这次审查中,我们的目标是将NCP与疼痛回路中其他形式的可塑性进行比较和整合,以提高对NCP的致病作用及其在病理性疼痛发展过程中与其他形式的回路可塑性的协同作用的理解.
    Pathological pain emerges from nociceptive system dysfunction, resulting in heightened pain circuit activity. Various forms of circuitry plasticity, such as central sensitization, synaptic plasticity, homeostatic plasticity, and excitation/inhibition balance, contribute to the malfunction of neural circuits during pain pathogenesis. Recently, a new form of plasticity in the spinal dorsal horn (SDH), named neural circuit polarization (NCP), was discovered in pain models induced by HIV-1 gp120 and chronic morphine administration. NCP manifests as an increase in excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) in excitatory neurons and a decrease in EPSCs in inhibitory neurons, presumably facilitating hyperactivation of pain circuits. The expression of NCP is associated with astrogliosis. Ablation of reactive astrocytes or suppression of astrogliosis blocks NCP and, concomitantly, the development of gp120- or morphine-induced pain. In this review, we aim to compare and integrate NCP with other forms of plasticity in pain circuits to improve the understanding of the pathogenic contribution of NCP and its cooperation with other forms of circuitry plasticity during the development of pathological pain.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于密集灌溉和预期的气候变化,地下水的过度开采对全世界的水和粮食安全构成了严重威胁,特别是在华北平原(NCP)。有限灌溉已被认为是提高作物水分生产率和减缓地下水位迅速下降的有效途径。在未来的气候变化下,优化的有限灌溉策略是否可以在NCP中实现地下水抽水和谷物生产之间的平衡,值得进一步研究。在这项研究中,改进的土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)模型用于模拟有限灌溉策略下气候变化对浅层地下水位和作物产量的影响,以建议NCP未来气候条件下的最佳灌溉管理实践。将冬小麦的11种有限灌溉策略的模拟与未来的照常管理进行了比较。气候变化的影响表明,与历史时期(1971-2000年)相比,在三个SSP下,在中期(2041-2070年)和后期(2071-2100年),在适当灌溉下的平均小麦(玉米)产量预计将增加13.2%(4.9%),在后期(2071-2100年)。在三个SSP下,在整个未来时期(2041-2100)内,浅层地下水位的平均下降速度约为1ma-1,而SSP5-8.5的下降幅度更大。未来气候对浅层地下水抽水和补给平衡的平均贡献率为62.9%。根据未来气候下浅层地下水位的模拟作物产量和下降速度,通过在小麦与雨养玉米的拔节期进行灌溉来实现最合适的有限灌溉,可以实现地下水的回收和可持续的粮食生产。
    Over-exploitation of groundwater due to intensive irrigation and anticipated climate change pose severe threats to the water and food security worldwide, particularly in the North China Plain (NCP). Limited irrigation has been recognized as an effective way to improve crop water productivity and slow the rapid decline of groundwater levels. Whether optimized limited irrigation strategies could achieve a balance between groundwater pumping and grain production in the NCP under future climate change deserves further study. In this study, an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate climate change impacts on shallow groundwater levels and crop production under limited irrigation strategies to suggest optimal irrigation management practices under future climate conditions in the NCP. The simulations of eleven limited irrigation strategies for winter wheat with targeted irrigations at different growth stages and with irrigated or rainfed summer maize were compared with future business-as-usual management. Climate change impacts showed that mean wheat (maize) yield under adequate irrigation was expected to increase by 13.2% (4.9%) during the middle time period (2041-2070) and by 11.2% (4.6%) during the late time period (2071-2100) under three SSPs compared to the historical period (1971-2000). Mean decline rate of shallow groundwater level slowed by approximately 1 m a-1 during the entire future period (2041-2100) under three SSPs with a greater reduction for SSP5-8.5. The average contribution rate of future climate toward the balance of shallow groundwater pumping and replenishment was 62.9%. Based on the simulated crop yields and decline rate of shallow groundwater level under the future climate, the most appropriate limited irrigation was achieved by applying irrigation during the jointing stage of wheat with rainfed maize, which could achieve the groundwater recovery and sustainable food production.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为了阻止生物圈的进一步破坏,全球大多数人和社会都需要改变与自然的关系。根据《生物多样性公约》的国际商定愿景-与自然和谐相处-“到2050年,生物多样性得到重视,保守的,恢复并明智地使用,维护生态系统服务,维持一个健康的星球,为所有人提供至关重要的福利。“在这种情况下,关于如何实现这一愿景,不同的观点之间存在各种争论。然而,能够在“与自然和谐相处”的背景下探索这些辩论的场景和模型尚未得到广泛开发。为了解决这个差距,“自然未来框架”的开发旨在促进新的情景和模型的发展,这些情景和模型包含对自然和人类理想未来的多种观点。在本文中,IPBES情景和模型工作组的成员提供了一个例子,说明如何实施《自然期货框架》,以发展代表各种理想自然期货的说明性叙述:可用于评估和开发情景和模型的信息,同时承认对自然的基础价值观点。这里,说明性术语反映了通过这些叙述可以捕获所需自然期货的多种方式。此外,探索叙事之间的相互依存关系,因此,它们可能被转化为场景和模型,这里发展的六个叙述是围绕变革辩论的三个领域进行评估的,具体来说,(1)节约土地vs.土地共享,(2)半地球与整个地球保护,(3)绿色增长与增长后经济发展。本文最后评估了如何使用自然期货框架来帮助开发和阐明理想的自然期货的变革途径。
    在线版本包含补充材料,可在10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1获得。
    To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that \"By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people\". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of \"living in harmony with nature\" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.
    UNASSIGNED: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    癌症是一个重要的公共卫生问题。前列腺癌是男性中最常见的癌症之一。在波兰,这种癌症的发病率在不断增长。考虑到2019年12月新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)的出现以及肿瘤患者,包括前列腺癌患者,特别容易受到感染,建议接种COVID-19疫苗。在我们的研究中,我们确定了与对照组相比,前列腺癌患者的SARS-CoV-2IgG抗体水平和患病率,以及患者年龄是否影响抗体水平.PCa患者和对照组分为两个年龄组:50-59岁和60-70岁。我们还分析了前列腺癌相关风险组患者的抗体水平(欧洲泌尿外科学会前列腺癌风险组分类)。对于这项研究,我们使用Microblot-ArrayCOVID-19IgG测试来检测针对三种主要SARS-CoV-2抗原的抗体:NCP,RBD,和S2。我们的结果表明,与对照组相比,前列腺癌患者的抗SARS-CoV-2IgG抗体水平显着降低。此外,年龄也影响IgG抗体数量的减少。中/高风险组的抗体水平低于低风险组。
    Cancer is an important public health problem. Prostate cancer is one of the most common cancers among men. In Poland, the incidence of this type of cancer is constantly growing. Considering the appearance of a new coronavirus in December 2019 (SARS-CoV-2) and the fact that oncology patients, including those with prostate cancer, are particularly vulnerable to infection, it is recommended to get vaccinated against COVID-19. In our study, we determined the level and prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 IgG in patients with prostate cancer compared to the control group and whether the patients\' ages affected the level of antibodies. PCa patients and controls were divided into two age groups: 50-59 years and 60-70 years. We also analyzed the level of antibodies in patients belonging to the relevant risk groups for prostate cancer (the European Society of Urology risk group classification of prostate cancer). For the study, we used the Microblot-Array COVID-19 IgG test to detect antibodies against the three main SARS-CoV-2 antigens: NCP, RBD, and S2. Our results showed that prostate cancer patients had significantly lower levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies compared to controls. In addition, age also affected the decrease in the number of IgG antibodies. The level of antibodies in the intermediate/high-risk group was lower compared to the low-risk group.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    MLL/KMT2家族酶在人类癌症和先天性疾病中经常发生突变。它们沉积了大部分组蛋白3赖氨酸4(H3K4)单-,di-,或哺乳动物的三甲基化,并且与基因激活密切相关。近年来的结构和生化研究提供了对MLL1和同源酵母SET1复合物如何与核小体核心颗粒(NCP)相互作用以及它们对H3K4甲基化的活性如何受保守核心成分调节的深入了解。这里,我们将讨论最近对结合在NCP上的MLL1和ySET1复合物的单分子冷冻EM研究。这些研究强调了与其他组蛋白赖氨酸甲基转移酶相比具有独特特征的MLL/SET1家族赖氨酸甲基转移酶的动态调节。这些研究为细胞中H3K4甲基化状态的基因座特异性调节提供了见解。对MLL1复合物的机理研究已经导致了MLL1抑制剂的开发,该抑制剂在急性白血病和转移性乳腺癌中显示出功效。对MLL/SET1家族酶的未来研究将继续带来潜在的治疗机会。
    The MLL/KMT2 family enzymes are frequently mutated in human cancers and congenital diseases. They deposit the majority of histone 3 lysine 4 (H3K4) mono-, di-, or tri-methylation in mammals and are tightly associated with gene activation. Structural and biochemical studies in recent years provide in-depth understanding of how the MLL1 and homologous yeast SET1 complexes interact with the nucleosome core particle (NCP) and how their activities for H3K4 methylation are regulated by the conserved core components. Here, we will discuss the recent single molecule cryo-EM studies on the MLL1 and ySET1 complexes bound on the NCP. These studies highlight the dynamic regulation of the MLL/SET1 family lysine methyltransferases with unique features as compared with other histone lysine methyltransferases. These studies provide insights for loci-specific regulation of H3K4 methylation states in cells. The mechanistic studies on the MLL1 complex have already led to the development of the MLL1 inhibitors that show efficacy in acute leukemia and metastatic breast cancers. Future studies on the MLL/SET1 family enzymes will continue to bring to light potential therapeutic opportunities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    SARS-CoV-2病毒引起了全球范围的COVID-19大流行。到目前为止,波兰报告了6,120,834例确诊的COVID-19病例,其中116,773例死亡。根据WHO,共接种了54,662,485剂疫苗。出现了新的变体,这些变体变得占主导地位。这项研究的目的是比较由Delta和Omicron变体引起的感染后的抗体水平。该研究包括203名尽管接种了两剂疫苗但仍接受轻度COVID-19的人。获得的结果表明,在Omicron变体感染的患者中观察到显着较低的滴度。因此,这些患者可能面临新的Omicron变异株再感染的风险.由于再次感染的可能性,加强疫苗接种是必要的。需要进一步的流行病学和临床研究以开发新的预防策略。
    The SARS-CoV-2 virus caused a worldwide COVID-19 pandemic. So far, 6,120,834 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 116,773 deaths have been reported in Poland. According to WHO, a total of 54,662,485 vaccine doses have been administered. New variants emerge that become dominant. The aim of this study was a comparison of antibody level after infection caused by Delta and Omicron variants. The study included 203 persons who underwent mild COVID-19 despite two doses of vaccine. The obtained results indicate that a significantly lower titer was observed in patients with the Omicron variant infection. Therefore, these patients may be at risk of reinfection with new strains of the Omicron variant. Due to the possibility of reinfection, booster vaccinations are necessary. Further epidemiological and clinical studies are necessary to develop new prevention strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    几个月后,SARS-CoV-2病毒引起了全球范围的COVID-19大流行。在波兰,已经报告了600万例这种疾病和113,000人死于COVID-19。医护人员(HCWs)是COVID-19的主要风险人群之一。Microblot-ArrayCOVID-19IgG测定用于检测针对三种主要SARS-CoV-2抗原的抗体:核衣壳(NCP),RBD,和Spike2(S2)。我们研究的目的是确定抗SARS-CoV-2IgG抗体-NCP的血清阳性率和滴度,RBD,和S2-作为接种疫苗和未接种疫苗的HCW中的体液应答的标志物。该研究包括203人,他们分为四组:“接种了COVID-19”,“COVID-19未接种疫苗”,“非COVID-19疫苗接种”,和“非COVID-19未接种疫苗”。获得的结果表明,在“COVID-19疫苗接种”组中,血清阳性率和抗体滴度均最高。没有所谓的无菌疫苗接种,第二剂疫苗接种6个月后,大多数接种疫苗的人都有相当高的抗体水平。我们建议多次接种疫苗和连续检测是必要的。Microblot-Array测定可以区分感染和/或疫苗接种后获得的抗体。
    In a few months, the SARS-CoV-2 virus caused a worldwide COVID-19 pandemic. In Poland, 6 million cases of the disease and 113,000 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported. Healthcare workers (HCWs) constitute one of the main COVID-19 risk groups. The Microblot-Array COVID-19 IgG assay was used to detect antibodies against three major SARS-CoV-2 antigens: nucleocapsid (NCP), RBD, and Spike 2 (S2). The aim of our study was to determine the seroprevalence and titer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies-NCP, RBD, and S2-as markers of the humoral response in vaccinated and unvaccinated HCWs. The study included 203 persons who were divided into four groups: \"COVID-19 Vaccinated\", \"COVID-19 Unvaccinated\", \"Non-COVID-19 Vaccinated\", and \"Non-COVID-19 Unvaccinated\". The obtained results indicate that both seroprevalence and the antibody titer are the highest in the \"COVID-19 Vaccinated\" group. There is no so-called sterile vaccination, and after 6 months from the second dose of vaccine, most vaccinated people have a fairly high level of antibodies. We suggest that multiple vaccination and continuous testing are necessary. The Microblot-Array assay can distinguish between antibodies acquired after infection and/or vaccination.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:亏缺灌溉(DI)是提高作物WUE的可行策略,并且对产量也具有显着的补偿作用。先前的研究发现,DI具有与完全灌溉(FI)一样维持作物产量的巨大潜力。因此,在缺水地区,采用DI提高作物产量和保护地下水资源具有重要意义,例如,华北平原(NCP)。在全球变暖的大背景下,在未来的气候情景下,DI是否继续发挥如此关键的作用是值得研究的。
    方法:我们使用农业生产系统模拟器(APSIM)模型研究了在两种共享社会经济途径(SSP)情景(SSP245和SSP585)下,花前冬小麦产量和WUE对不同DI水平的响应。由耦合模型间比较项目第6阶段(CMIP6)的21个一般循环模型(GCM)驱动。此外,我们探讨了不同氮肥施用量对DI的影响。
    结果:我们发现模拟小麦产量将增加3.5-45.0%,在未来气候变化下,所有治疗方法的WUE增加8.8-46.4%。在N3(150kgNha-1)条件下的中度亏缺灌溉(DI3,在播种至开花期≤0.4PAWC)被确定为未来气候变化下研究地点的最佳灌溉时间表。然而,未来DI3对产量和WUE的补偿效应变弱,这主要是由于GCM预计的生长季节降雨量增加。此外,我们发现氮肥的施用可以减轻DI3的影响。
    结论:我们强调,在NCP的缺水地区,在未来的气候情景下,DI仍然是保持更高的产量和增加用水的有效策略。结果强烈表明,在150kgNha-1条件下进行适度的亏缺灌溉可以减轻生产与用水之间的矛盾,并确保NCP的食品安全。
    BACKGROUND: Deficit irrigation (DI) is a feasible strategy to enhance crop WUE and also has significant compensation effects on yield. Previous studies have found that DI has great potential to maintain crop production as full irrigation (FI) does. Therefore, adopting DI to improve crop production and safeguard groundwater resources is of great importance in water scarce regions, e.g., the North China Plain (NCP). Under the background of global warming, it is worth investigating whether DI continues to play such a key role under future climate scenarios.
    METHODS: We studied the response of winter wheat yield and WUE to different DI levels at pre-anthesis under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model driven by 21 general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Additionally, we explored the effects of different nitrogen (N) fertilizer application rates on DI.
    RESULTS: We found that simulated wheat yield would increase by 3.5-45.0%, with WUE increasing by 8.8-46.4% across all treatments under future climate change. Moderate deficit irrigation (DI3, ≤0.4 PAWC at the sowing to flowering stage) under the N3 (150 kg N ha-1) condition was identified as the optimum irrigation schedule for the study site under future climate change. However, compensation effects of DI3 on yield and WUE became weak in the future, which was mainly due to increased growing season rainfall projected by GCMs. In addition, we found that N fertilizer application could mitigate the effect of DI3.
    CONCLUSIONS: We highlight that in water scarce regions of NCP, DI remains an effective strategy to maintain higher yield and enhance water use under future climate scenarios. Results strongly suggest that moderate deficit irrigation under a 150 kg N ha-1 condition could mitigate the contradiction between production and water consumption and ensure food safety in the NCP.
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