背景:允许分析不同人口变化的适当的死亡率预测模型是人口转型国家感兴趣的话题。死亡率降低等现象,老化,预期寿命的增加对规划旨在促进各国经济和社会发展的公共政策非常有用。据我们所知,本文是最早评估应用于简化寿命表的死亡率预测模型的性能的论文之一。
目标:选择一个死亡率模型,该模型可以最好地描述和预测哥伦比亚的死亡率特征,而只有简化的生命表。
方法:我们使用了1973-2005年期间哥伦比亚的简略生命表和来自拉丁美洲人类死亡率数据库的数据。本研究提出了不同的死亡率模型来处理死亡概率的建模和预测。对于死亡率模型的比较,分析了两个标准:图形残差分析和保持方法来评估模型的预测性能,应用不同的拟合优度度量。
结果:只有三个模型没有收敛问题:Lee-Carter(LC),李-卡特有两个条款(LC2),和年龄-周期-队列(APC)模型。所有型号都更适合女性,LC上LC2的改善主要适用于男性的中心年龄,和APC模型的拟合比其他两个差。对标准化偏差残差的分析使我们能够推断出合理拟合哥伦比亚死亡率数据的模型是LC和LC2。主要残差对应于儿童的年龄和更晚的年龄。
结论:LC和LC2模型具有更好的拟合效果,确定哥伦比亚死亡率的主要特征。根据按性别划分的简化生命表进行的死亡率预测对于研究发展中国家之间的差异和人口变化的趋同/分歧具有明显的附加值。
BACKGROUND: An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition. Phenomena such as the reduction of mortality, ageing, and the increase in life expectancy are extremely useful in the planning of public policies that seek to promote the economic and social development of countries. To our knowledge, this paper is one of the first to evaluate the performance of mortality forecasting models applied to abridged life tables.
OBJECTIVE: Select a mortality model that best describes and forecasts the characteristics of mortality in Colombia when only abridged life tables are available.
METHODS: We used Colombian abridged life tables for the period 1973-2005 with data from the Latin American Human Mortality Database. Different mortality models to deal with modeling and forecasting probability of death are presented in this study. For the comparison of mortality models, two criteria were analyzed: graphical residuals analysis and the hold-out method to evaluate the predictive performance of the models, applying different goodness of fit measures.
RESULTS: Only three models did not have convergence problems: Lee-Carter (LC), Lee-Carter with two terms (LC2), and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. All models fit better for women, the improvement of LC2 on LC is mostly for central ages for men, and the APC model\'s fit is worse than the other two. The analysis of the standardized deviance residuals allows us to deduce that the models that reasonably fit the Colombian mortality data are LC and LC2. The major residuals correspond to children\'s ages and later ages for both sexes.
CONCLUSIONS: The LC and LC2 models present better goodness of fit, identifying the principal characteristics of mortality for Colombia.Mortality forecasting from abridged life tables by sex has clear added value for studying differences between developing countries and convergence/divergence of demographic changes.