Preparation of activated carbons is an important way to utilize municipal sludge (MS) resources, while drying is a pretreatment method for making activated carbons from MS. In this study, machine learning techniques were used to develop moisture ratio (MR) and composting temperature (CT) prediction models for the thermally assisted biodrying process of MS. First, six machine learning (ML) models were used to construct the MR and CT prediction models, respectively. Then the hyperparameters of the ML models were optimized using the Bayesian optimization algorithm, and the prediction performances of these models after optimization were compared. Finally, the effect of each input feature on the model was also evaluated using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis and Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) analysis. The results showed that Gaussian process regression (GPR) was the best model for predicting MR and CT, with R2 of 0.9967 and 0.9958, respectively, and root mean square errors (RMSE) of 0.0059 and 0.354 ℃. In addition, graphical user interface software was developed to facilitate the use of the GPR model for predicting MR and CT by researchers and engineers. This study contributes to the rapid prediction, improvement, and optimization of MR and CT during thermally assisted biodrying of MS, and also provides valuable guidance for the dynamic regulation of the drying process.

OBJECTIVE: Machine learning methods have gained much attention in health sciences for predicting various health outcomes but are scarcely used in pharmacoepidemiology. The ability to identify predictors of suboptimal medication use is essential for conducting interventions aimed at improving medication outcomes. It remains uncertain whether machine learning methods could enhance the identification of potentially inappropriate medication use among older adults compared with traditional methods. This study aimed to (1) to compare the performances of machine learning models in predicting use of potentially inappropriate medications and (2) to quantify and compare the relative importance of predictors in a population of community-dwelling older adults (>65 years) in the province of Québec, Canada.
METHODS: We used the Québec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System and selected a cohort of 1 105 295 older adults of whom 533 719 were potentially inappropriate medication users. Potentially inappropriate medications were defined according to the Beers list. We compared performances between 5 popular machine learning models (gradient boosting machines, logistic regression, naive Bayes, neural networks, and random forests) based on receiver operating characteristic curves and other performance criteria, using a set of sociodemographic and medical predictors.
RESULTS: No model clearly outperformed the others. All models except neural networks were in agreement regarding the top predictors (sex and anxiety-depressive disorders and schizophrenia) and the bottom predictors (rurality and social and material deprivation indices).
CONCLUSIONS: Including other types of predictors (eg, unstructured data) may be more useful for increasing performance in prediction of potentially inappropriate medication use.

This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML)-based tool for early and accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality risk in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) in the intensive care unit (ICU). We did a retrospective study in our study and identified cases of sICH from the MIMIC IV (n = 1486) and Zhejiang Hospital databases (n = 110). The model was constructed using features selected through LASSO regression. Among five well-known models, the selection of the best model was based on the area under the curve (AUC) in the validation cohort. We further analyzed calibration and decision curves to assess prediction results and visualized the impact of each variable on the model through SHapley Additive exPlanations. To facilitate accessibility, we also created a visual online calculation page for the model. The XGBoost exhibited high accuracy in both internal validation (AUC = 0.907) and external validation (AUC = 0.787) sets. Calibration curve and decision curve analyses showed that the model had no significant bias as well as being useful for supporting clinical decisions. XGBoost is an effective algorithm for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with sICH, indicating its potential significance in the development of early warning systems.

As one of the main external factors affecting the fire extinguishing accuracy of sprinkler systems, it is necessary to analyze and study random wind. However, in practical applications, there is little research on the impact of random wind on sprinkler fire extinguishing points. To address this issue, a new random wind acquisition system was constructed in this paper, and a method for predicting jet trajectory falling points in Random Forest (RF) under the influence of random wind was proposed, and compared with the commonly used prediction model Support Vector Machine (SVM). The method in this article reduces the error in the x direction of the 50 m prediction result from 2.11 m to 1.53 m, the error in the y direction from 0.64 m to 0.6 m, and the total mean absolute error (MAE) from 31.3 to 23.5. Simultaneously, predict the falling points of jet trajectory at different distances under the influence of random wind, to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method in practical applications. The experimental results show that the system and method proposed in this article can effectively improve the influence of random wind on the falling points of a jet trajectory. In summary, the image acquisition system and error prediction method proposed in this article have many potential applications in fire extinguishing.

The enhancement of flexibility, energy efficiency, and environmental friendliness constitutes a widely acknowledged trend in the development of urban infrastructure. The proliferation of various types of transportation vehicles exacerbates the complexity of traffic regulation. Intelligent transportation systems, leveraging real-time traffic status prediction technologies, such as velocity estimation, emerge as viable solutions for the efficacious management and control of urban road networks. The objective of this project is to address the complex task of increasing accuracy in predicting traffic conditions on a big scale using deep learning techniques. To accomplish the objective of the study, the historical traffic data of Paris and Istanbul within a certain timeframe were used, considering the impact of variables such as speed, traffic volume, and direction. Specifically, traffic movie clips based on 2 years of real-world data for the two cities were utilized. The movies were generated with HERE data derived from over 100 billion GPS (Global Positioning System) probe points collected from a substantial fleet of automobiles. The model presented by us, unlike the majority of previous ones, takes into account the cumulative impact of speed, flow, and direction. The developed model showed better results compared to the well-known models, in particular, in comparison with the SR-ResNet model. The pixel-wise MAE (mean absolute error) values for Paris and Istanbul were 4.299 and 3.884 respectively, compared to 4.551 and 3.993 for SR-ResNET. Thus, the created model demonstrated the possibilities for further enhancing the accuracy and efficacy of intelligent transportation systems, particularly in large urban centres, thereby facilitating heightened safety, energy efficiency, and convenience for road users. The obtained results will be useful for local policymakers responsible for infrastructure development planning, as well as for specialists and researchers in the field. Future research should investigate how to incorporate more sources of information, in particular previous information from physical traffic flow models, information about weather conditions, etc. into the deep learning framework, as well as further increasing of the throughput capacity and reducing processing time.

Many commonly used mathematical models in the field of mathematical biology involve challenges of parameter non-identifiability. Practical non-identifiability, where the quality and quantity of data does not provide sufficiently precise parameter estimates is often encountered, even with relatively simple models. In particular, the situation where some parameters are identifiable and others are not is often encountered. In this work we apply a recent likelihood-based workflow, called Profile-Wise Analysis (PWA), to non-identifiable models for the first time. The PWA workflow addresses identifiability, parameter estimation, and prediction in a unified framework that is simple to implement and interpret. Previous implementations of the workflow have dealt with idealised identifiable problems only. In this study we illustrate how the PWA workflow can be applied to both structurally non-identifiable and practically non-identifiable models in the context of simple population growth models. Dealing with simple mathematical models allows us to present the PWA workflow in a didactic, self-contained document that can be studied together with relatively straightforward Julia code provided on GitHub . Working with simple mathematical models allows the PWA workflow prediction intervals to be compared with gold standard full likelihood prediction intervals. Together, our examples illustrate how the PWA workflow provides us with a systematic way of dealing with non-identifiability, especially compared to other approaches, such as seeking ad hoc parameter combinations, or simply setting parameter values to some arbitrary default value. Importantly, we show that the PWA workflow provides insight into the commonly-encountered situation where some parameters are identifiable and others are not, allowing us to explore how uncertainty in some parameters, and combinations of parameters, regardless of their identifiability status, influences model predictions in a way that is insightful and interpretable.

Supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) are eco-friendly cementitious materials that can partially replace ordinary Portland cement (OPC). The occurrence of early-age cracking in OPC-SCM blended cement is a significant factor impacting the mechanical properties and durability of the concrete. This article presents a comprehensive review of the existing research on cracking in OPC-SCM concrete mix at early ages. To assess the effects of SCMs on the early-age cracking of concrete, the properties of blended cement-based concrete, in terms of its viscoelastic behavior, evolution of mechanical performance, and factors that affect the risk of cracking in concrete at early ages, are reviewed. The use of SCMs in OPC-SCM concrete mix can be an effective method for mitigating early-age cracking while improving the properties and durability of concrete structures. Previous research showed that the shrinkage and creep of OPC-SCM concrete mix are lower than those of conventional concrete. Moreover, the lower cement content of OPC-SCM concrete mix resulted in a better resistance to thermal cracking. Proper selection, proportioning, and implementation of SCMs in concrete can help to optimize the performance and reduce the environmental impact of OPC-SCM concrete mix.

Water contamination incidents have become a significant ecological and environmental threat, particularly concerning the security of drinking water source areas (DWSAs). This research aimed to address this issue by integrating Geographic Information System (GIS) into bidimensional hydrodynamic water quality mathematical model developed using C +  + and FORTRAN programming languages. The focus was on the Heshangshan drinking water source area (HDWSA), and the TECPLOT360 software was utilized for visualizing pollutant migration and dispersion processes. The study specifically considered a hypothetical lead (Pb) contamination accident, which is situated in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). The spatio-temporal variations in Pb concentration throughout the entire DWSA were analyzed, along with a comparison of Pb concentration changes during different water seasons. The results indicate that, during the accident, the Pb concentration at the water intake in the drought season, decline season, flood season, and impounding season reached the standard limits at 76, 58, 44, and 48 min, respectively. Moreover, the entire DWSA achieved standard levels of Pb concentration at 124, 89, 71, and 74 min during the respective seasons. The study also observed an expansion and subsequent contraction of the Pb contamination area in the DWSA, with the transfer rate of Pb concentration ranked as flood season > impounding season > decline season > drought season.

To reduce the number of sensors in the SCR catalyst, state feedback and fault diagnosis information are provided. Firstly, a model based on the coupling of flow, heat transfer, and gas-solid phase catalytic reaction in the SCR system is investigated in this paper. The parabolic partial differential equations are simplified by the variable substitution method and the method of lines approach (MOL). The simplified system of equations is solved by backward differentiation formulas (BDF) with adaptive adjustment time step strategy. Meanwhile, the chemical reaction parameters are accurately calibrated per second using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. Secondly, the ATS-UKF is designed in this paper, and to ensure the synchronisation between the ATS-UKF and the SCR model calculations, the time step of solving the BDF by the SCR model is taken as the time step of propagating the sigma points. Two observation scenarios are assumed: (1) no downstream NH3 concentration sensor, ammonia coverage and downstream NH3 concentration are observed by ATS-UKF; (2) no downstream NOx sensor, ammonia coverage and downstream NOx concentration are observed by ATS-UKF. Finally, the paper carries out bench tests. In the first case, the ammonia coverage obtained by the ATS-UKF reached 0.99 with respect to the model-calculated value R². The mean absolute error (MAE) between the observed and experimental values of the ATS-UKF for the downstream NH3 concentration was 2.76 ppm. In the second case, the ammonia coverage obtained by the ATS-UKF reached 0.99 with respect to the model-calculated value R², and the MAE between the observed and experimental values of the ATS-UKF for the downstream NOx concentration was 1.53 ppm. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATION: The Adaptive Time-Step Unscented Kalman Filtering (ATS-UKF) enhances urea Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) in diesel engines, improving environmental outcomes. This method minimizes sensor dependence, enabling more precise SCR system management and effective emission reduction. By advancing emission control technologies, ATS-UKF contributes to global air pollution mitigation efforts, supporting cleaner air and environmental sustainability. Its innovative approach in monitoring and predicting SCR performance marks a significant step towards eco-friendly diesel engine operation.

OBJECTIVE: Contact tracing is the process of identifying people who have recently been in contact with someone diagnosed with an infectious disease. During an outbreak, data collected from contact tracing can inform interventions to reduce the spread of infectious diseases. Understanding factors associated with completion rates of contact tracing surveys can help design improved interview protocols for ongoing and future programs.
OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated with completion rates of COVID-19 contact tracing surveys in New York City (NYC) and evaluate the utility of a predictive model to improve completion rates, we analyze laboratory-confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases and their self-reported contacts in NYC from October 1st 2020 to May 10th 2021.
METHODS: We analyzed 742,807 case investigation calls made during the study period. Using a log-binomial regression model, we examined the impact of age, time of day of phone call, and zip code-level demographic and socioeconomic factors on interview completion rates. We further developed a random forest model to predict the best phone call time and performed a counterfactual analysis to evaluate the change of completion rates if the predicative model were used.
RESULTS: The percentage of contact tracing surveys that were completed was 79.4%, with substantial variations across ZIP code areas. Using a log-binomial regression model, we found that the age of index case (an individual who has tested positive through PCR or antigen testing and is thus subjected to a case investigation) had a significant effect on the completion of case investigation - compared with young adults (the reference group,24 years old < age <  = 65 years old), the completion rate for seniors (age > 65 years old) were lower by 12.1% (95%CI: 11.1% - 13.3%), and the completion rate for youth group (age <  = 24 years old) were lower by 1.6% (95%CI: 0.6% -2.6%). In addition, phone calls made from 6 to 9 pm had a 4.1% (95% CI: 1.8% - 6.3%) higher completion rate compared with the reference group of phone calls attempted from 12 and 3 pm. We further used a random forest algorithm to assess its potential utility for selecting the time of day of phone call. In counterfactual simulations, the overall completion rate in NYC was marginally improved by 1.2%; however, certain ZIP code areas had improvements up to 7.8%.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that age and time of day of phone call were associated with completion rates of case investigations. It is possible to develop predictive models to estimate better phone call time for improving completion rates in certain communities.