Media impact

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对潜伏性结核感染(LTBI)患者的预防性治疗引起了我们的极大兴趣。在本文中,我们提出并分析了一种新的结核病数学模型,该模型考虑了有媒体影响的预防性治疗.基本再现数R0由下一代矩阵方法定义。在没有媒体影响的情况下,我们证明了如果R0<1(R0>1),无病平衡是全局渐近稳定(不稳定)的。此外,我们得到,当R0>1时,存在一个唯一的地方性均衡,在永久免疫和无媒体影响的情况下,它是全局渐近稳定的。我们将模型与中国四个地区2009-2019年新报告的结核病例数据进行拟合,并估计参数。我们估计湖北的R0=0.5013<1,表明湖北的结核病将在未来被消除。然而,河南估计R0=1.015>1,江西的R0=1.282>1和新疆的R0=1.930>1意味着结核病将在这三个地区继续存在,而没有进一步的预防和控制措施。此外,进行了敏感性分析,以说明模型参数在结核病控制中的作用。我们的发现表明,适当提高积极感染者的及时治疗率和增加LTBI患者寻求预防性治疗的比例可以实现消除结核病的目标。此外,另一个有趣的发现表明,媒体的影响只能在有限的程度上减少活动性感染的数量,但不能改变结核病的患病率。
    Preventive treatment for people with latent Tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has aroused our great interest. In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel mathematical model of TB considering preventive treatment with media impact. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined by the next generation matrix method. In the case without media impact, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (unstable) if R0<1(R0>1). Furthermore, we obtain that a unique endemic equilibrium exists when R0>1, which is globally asymptotically stable in the case of permanent immunity and no media impact. We fit the model to the newly reported TB cases data from 2009 to 2019 of four regions in China and estimate the parameters. And we estimated R0=0.5013<1 in Hubei indicating that TB in Hubei will be eliminated in the future. However, the estimated R0=1.015>1 in Henan, R0=1.282>1 in Jiangxi and R0=1.930>1 in Xinjiang imply that TB will continue to persist in these three regions without further prevention and control measures. Besides, sensitivity analysis is carried out to illustrate the role of model parameters for TB control. Our finding reveals that appropriately improving the rate of timely treatment for actively infected people and increasing the rate of individuals with LTBI seeking preventive treatment could achieve the goal of TB elimination. In addition, another interesting finding shows that media impact can only reduce the number of active infections to a limited extent, but cannot change the prevalence of TB.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:了解影响青少年对快餐的认知及其液体消耗的因素对于设计针对该人群的有效营养教育计划至关重要。这项研究旨在评估性别,媒体和互联网的使用与青少年对快餐食品的感知和液体消耗量的关联。
    方法:对科威特15至18岁的学校青少年进行了横断面调查,采用多阶段分层随机抽样方法(N=706名青少年;343名男孩和363名女孩)。经过预先测试和专门设计的自我报告问卷,涵盖了几种措施,例如:(a)被认为是快餐的食物类型;(b)参与者的液体消耗。使用校准的医疗秤测量体重和身高。计算体重指数(BMI)。青少年按性别分为两组:男孩和女孩,为了分析的目的。
    结果:14种食物选择中有7种在青少年对他们是否认为这种食物选择是快餐的反应中显示出显著的性别差异(p值在0.016到<0.001之间)。尽管发现了两性之间的差异,大多数列出的快餐被青少年正确地认为是快餐。此外,从全脂牛奶中消耗的每日饮料量(毫升/周)在男性和女性之间存在显着差异(男性=l197.1±27,652.1,女性=1662.8±2221,p=0.013),含糖饮料(男性=2350.8±3324.3,女性=3088.9±3701.1,p=0.004),和能量饮料(男性=429.5±1117.2,女性=267.6±733.8,p=0.037)。与很少或不看电视或使用互联网的青少年相比,那些从事这些久坐活动的人不太可能对披萨进行分类(aOR(95%CI)=0.660(0.440-0.990),p=0.045),烤肉(aOR(95%CI)=0.674(0.477-0.954),p=0.026),煎蛋三明治(aOR(95%CI)=0.617(0.425-0.894-0.189),p=0.011),和水稻(AOR(95%CI)=0.598(0.409-0.875),p=0.008)作为快餐。
    结论:已经观察到电视和互联网使用对青少年准确识别快餐的能力的影响。研究结果表明,需要增加针对青少年的快餐营养教育计划。该研究建议进一步研究,以提高科威特国青少年消费者对食品和饮料的认识。
    Understanding the factors that influence adolescent\'s perception of fast food and their fluid consumption is crucial for designing effective nutrition education programs tailored to this population. This study aimed to evaluate the associations of sex and the use of media and the internet with adolescents\' perception of fast foods and the amount of fluid consumption.
    A cross-sectional survey was conducted on school adolescents between the ages of 15 and 18 years in Kuwait, using a multistage stratified random sampling method (N = 706 adolescents; 343 boys and 363 girls). A pre-tested and specifically designed self-report questionnaire covering several measures such as: (a) types of foods that are considered fast foods; and (b) participant\'s fluid consumption. Body weight and height were measured using calibrated medical scales. Body mass index (BMI) was computed. The adolescents were stratified by sex into two groups: boys and girls, for the purpose of analysis.
    Seven out of 14 food choices showed significant sex differences (p values ranged from 0.016 to < 0.001) in the adolescents\' responses to whether they perceived such food choice as fast food or not. Although differences were found between sexes, the majority of the listed fast foods were correctly recognized as fast foods by the adolescents. In addition, there were significant differences between males and females in the amount of daily drinks (ml/week) consumed from full fat milk (males = l197.1 ± 27,652.1 and females = 1662.8 ± 2221, p = 0.013), sugar-sweetened beverage (males = 2350.8 ± 3324.3 and females = 3088.9 ± 3701.1, p = 0.004), and energy drinks (males = 429.5 ± 1117.2 and females = 267.6 ± 733.8, p = 0.037). Compared to adolescents who seldom or do not watch TV or use the internet, those who engage in these sedentary activities are less likely to classify pizza (aOR (95% CI) = 0.660 (0.440-0.990), p = 0.045), grilled meat (aOR (95% CI) = 0.674 (0.477-0.954), p = 0.026), fried egg sandwiches (aOR (95% CI) = 0.617 (0.425-0.894-0.189), p = 0.011), and rice (aOR (95% CI) = 0.598(0.409-0.875), p = 0.008) as fast foods.
    The influence of TV and internet use on adolescent\'s ability to accurately identify fast foods has been observed. Findings indicate the need for increased fast food nutrition education programs that are tailored towards adolescents. The study recommends further research to enhance consumer awareness of foods and drinks among adolescents in the State of Kuwait.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们考虑了SIS功能偏微分模型与空间异质性和媒体影响的滞后效应。证明了解的存在性和唯一性。我们定义了基本再生数,并研究了模型的阈值动力学,并讨论了与扩散速率相关的基本再现数的渐近行为和单调性。从理论和数值上研究了地方性稳态下的局部和全局Hopf分叉。有数字案例表明,基本再现数越多,最终的流行病规模越小。有意义的结论推广了以往常微分方程的结论。
    We considered an SIS functional partial differential model cooperated with spatial heterogeneity and lag effect of media impact. The wellposedness including existence and uniqueness of the solution was proved. We defined the basic reproduction number and investigated the threshold dynamics of the model, and discussed the asymptotic behavior and monotonicity of the basic reproduction number associated with the diffusion rate. The local and global Hopf bifurcation at the endemic steady state was investigated theoretically and numerically. There exists numerical cases showing that the larger the number of basic reproduction number, the smaller the final epidemic size. The meaningful conclusion generalizes the previous conclusion of ordinary differential equation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在新出现的传染病爆发期间,媒体报道和医疗资源在影响疾病传播中起着重要作用。为了调查媒体报道饱和和医疗资源有限的影响,我们提出了一个数学模型,该模型具有额外的媒体覆盖率和两个非线性函数。我们从理论和数值上研究了所提出模型的动力学。鉴于理论分析中高度非线性带来的巨大困难,我们分别考虑了仅具有非线性恢复或仅具有饱和介质影响的子系统。对于仅具有非线性恢复的模型,我们从理论上表明,在这种情况下,在一定条件下,可以发生向后分叉,并且可以共存多个均衡。数值模拟揭示了丰富的动力学行为,包括向前-向后分叉,Hopf分叉,鞍状节点分叉,同斜分岔和不稳定极限环。因此,医疗资源的局限性引发了丰富的动力,给消除传染病带来了很大的困难。然后,我们研究了仅具有饱和介质冲击的系统动力学,并得出结论,饱和介质冲击几乎不会引起复杂的动力学。Further,我们根据中国大陆的COVID-19病例数据和与新闻相关的数据,对提出的模型进行了参数化,估计基本繁殖数为2.86。进行了敏感性分析,以量化参数在确定爆发第一个月结束时感染个体的累积数量中的相对重要性。结合数值分析,我们建议,提供足够的医疗资源和改善媒体对感染的反应或个人对大众媒体的反应可能会减少受感染个人的累积数量,这减轻了COVID-19大流行早期阶段的传播动力学。
    During the outbreak of emerging infectious diseases, media coverage and medical resource play important roles in affecting the disease transmission. To investigate the effects of the saturation of media coverage and limited medical resources, we proposed a mathematical model with extra compartment of media coverage and two nonlinear functions. We theoretically and numerically investigate the dynamics of the proposed model. Given great difficulties caused by high nonlinearity in theoretical analysis, we separately considered subsystems with only nonlinear recovery or with only saturated media impact. For the model with only nonlinear recovery, we theoretically showed that backward bifurcation can occur and multiple equilibria may coexist under certain conditions in this case. Numerical simulations reveal the rich dynamic behaviors, including forward-backward bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, homoclinic bifurcation and unstable limit cycle. So the limitation of medical resources induces rich dynamics and causes much difficulties in eliminating the infectious diseases. We then investigated the dynamics of the system with only saturated media impact and concluded that saturated media impact hardly induces the complicated dynamics. Further, we parameterized the proposed model on the basis of the COVID-19 case data in mainland China and data related to news items, and estimated the basic reproduction number to be 2.86. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to quantify the relative importance of parameters in determining the cumulative number of infected individuals at the end of the first month of the outbreak. Combining with numerical analyses, we suggested that providing adequate medical resources and improving media response to infection or individuals\' response to mass media may reduce the cumulative number of the infected individuals, which mitigates the transmission dynamics during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED: Social media is increasingly used in the dissemination of medical research. Traditional measures of the impact of a paper do not account for this. Altmetrics are a measure of the dissemination of a publication via social media websites. The purpose of this study is to ascertain if the altmetric attention score of an article is a reliable measure of the impact it has in the field of critical care medicine. To this end, we investigated if a correlation exists between future citation count and altmetric attention score.
    UNASSIGNED: The top nine journals by impact factor in the field of critical care medicine were identified for 2014 and 2015. The 100 most cited articles from these journals were recorded to form the Scientific Impact Group, i.e. those with the greatest impact on the scientific community. The altmetric attention score was recorded for each article. The top 100 articles by altmetric attention score were also identified to form the Media Impact Group, i.e. those that generated the most online attention. Their citation counts\' were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed on each group to identify a correlation between altmetric attention score and citation count.
    UNASSIGNED: There was a moderately positive correlation in the Scientific Impact Group, with a Spearman r score of 0.4336 (P = 0.0001). A weakly positive correlation was found in the Media Impact Group, with a Spearman r score of 0.3033 (P = 0.002).
    UNASSIGNED: There is a positive correlation between traditional bibliographic metrics and altmetrics in the field of critical care medicine. Highly cited papers are more likely to generate online attention. However, papers that generate a lot of online attention are less likely to have a high citation count. Therefore, altmetric attention score is not a reliable predictor of future citation count in critical care medicine.
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  • 文章类型: Letter
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们开发了一个三维隔室模型,以研究媒体报道对给定地区/地区传染病(例如SARS)的传播和控制的影响。模型的稳定性分析表明,在一定的阈值量下,无病均衡是全局渐近稳定的,基本再现数(),小于统一。另一方面,如果,结果表明,出现了独特的地方性平衡,并且可能发生Hopf分叉,从而导致振荡现象。该模型可能具有多达三个正均衡。数值模拟表明,当媒体冲击足够强时,该模型表现出多重正均衡,这对传染病暴发的预测和控制提出了挑战。
    We develop a three dimensional compartmental model to investigate the impact of media coverage to the spread and control of infectious diseases (such as SARS) in a given region/area. Stability analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable if a certain threshold quantity, the basic reproduction number (), is less than unity. On the other hand, if , it is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium appears and a Hopf bifurcation can occur which causes oscillatory phenomena. The model may have up to three positive equilibria. Numerical simulations suggest that when and the media impact is stronger enough, the model exhibits multiple positive equilibria which poses challenge to the prediction and control of the outbreaks of infectious diseases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    A functional differential model of SEIS-M type with two time delays, representing the response time for mass media to cover the current infection and for individuals\' behavior changes to media coverage, was proposed to examine the delayed media impact on the transmission dynamics of emergent infectious diseases. The threshold dynamics were established in terms of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. When there are no time delays, we showed that if the media impact is low, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for [Formula: see text], while the endemic equilibrium may become unstable and Hopf bifurcation occurs for some appropriate conditions by taking the level of media impact as bifurcation parameter. With two time delays, we comprehensively investigated the local and global bifurcation by considering the summation of delays as a bifurcation parameter, and theoretically and numerically examined the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from the endemic equilibrium. Main results show that either the media described feedback cycle, from infection to the level of mass media and back to disease incidence, or time delays can induce Hopf bifurcation and result in periodic oscillations. The findings indicate that the delayed media impact leads to a richer dynamics that may significantly affect the disease infections.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    We proposed a delay differential model, associated with the response time for individuals to the current infection, to examine the media impact on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. We investigated the global bifurcation by considering the delay as a bifurcation parameter and examined the onset and termination of Hopf bifurcations from a positive equilibrium. Numerical studies to identify ranges of parameters for coexisting multiple periodic solutions are guided by the bifurcation analysis and the Matlab package DDE-BIFTOOL developed by Engelborghs et al. Further, we parameterized the proposed model on the basis of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza data in Shaanxi province, China, and estimated the basic reproduction number to be 1.79 [95% CI (1.77-1.80)] and the time delay to be 2.94 days [95% CI (2.56-3.24)]. Our main results indicated that media impact with time delay significantly influenced the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Multiple epidemiological models have been developed to model the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus (EBOV) disease in West Africa in 2014 because the severity of the epidemic is commonly overestimated. A compartmental model that incorporates the media impact and the effect of infected bats was constructed and calibrated using data reported until the end of 2014. The final cumulative number of deaths and confirmed cases were estimated to be 1.0921×104 (95% CI 9.7706×103-1.2072×104) and 1.5193×104 (95% CI 1.3593×104-1.6795×104), respectively. The epidemic was estimated to end on June 2015, which was similar to the data reported by the World Health Organization. A sensitivity analysis indicated that an increase of either the media impact or the number of infectious bats that are captured daily can increase the cumulative number of confirmed cases/deaths. Of the considered epidemiological parameters, only the media coverage can significantly reduce both the peak time and the value of the cumulative confirmed cases/deaths. Thus, we propose \'the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths\' as another media mechanism. In conclusion, the media impact contributed to the control of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and infectious bats may be a potential source of the epidemic.
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