陆地繁殖的海洋捕食者经历了物种分布的变化,猎物的可用性,繁殖物候,和全球气候变化导致的人口动态。在繁殖季节,这些中心位置的觅食者被限制在其繁殖地附近,使它们极易受到海洋和陆地环境变化的影响。虽然生态学家已经开发了风险评估来评估各种环境下的气候风险,这些往往忽视了关键的育种生物学数据。为了解决这个知识差距,我们开发了一个基于特征的风险评估框架,专注于繁殖季节,并将其应用于澳大利亚领土和南极洲部分地区的海洋捕食者繁殖。我们的目标是量化气候变化风险,识别特定威胁,并建立适应性评估框架。评估考虑了与三个风险组成部分相关的25项标准:脆弱性,暴露,和危险,同时考虑不确定性。我们采用了一种评分系统,该系统整合了针对危险标准的系统文献综述和专家启发。进行蒙特卡罗敏感性分析以确定影响总体风险的关键因素。我们发现了害羞的信天翁(Thalassarchecauta),南部石斑鱼企鹅(Eudypteschrysocome),澳大利亚海狗(Arctocaluspusillusdoriferus),和气候紧迫性高的澳大利亚海狮(Neophocacinerea)。低纬度地区的物种繁殖,以及某些耳状密封,信天翁,和企鹅物种,尤其处于危险之中。危险和暴露解释了相对风险的最大变化,胜过脆弱性。影响大多数物种的主要气候危害包括极端天气事件,栖息地适宜性的变化,和猎物的可用性。我们强调需要进一步研究,专注于处于危险中的物种,并填补知识空白(研究较少的危害,和/或物种),以提供更准确和更稳健的气候变化风险评估。我们的发现为保护工作提供了宝贵的见解,鉴于在繁殖季节监测和实施依赖陆地的海洋捕食者的气候适应策略更可行。
Terrestrially breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change worldwide. These central-place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to evaluate climate risk in various contexts, these often overlook critical breeding biology data. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a trait-based risk assessment framework, focusing on the breeding season and applying it to marine predators breeding in parts of Australian territory and Antarctica. Our objectives were to quantify climate change risk, identify specific threats, and establish an adaptable assessment framework. The assessment considered 25 criteria related to three risk components: vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, while accounting for uncertainty. We employed a scoring system that integrated a systematic literature review and expert elicitation for the hazard criteria. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key factors contributing to overall risk. We identified shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes, as well as certain eared seal, albatross, and penguin species, were particularly at risk. Hazard and exposure explained the most variation in relative risk, outweighing vulnerability. Key climate hazards affecting most species include extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability. We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at-risk species, and filling knowledge gaps (less-studied hazards, and/or species) to provide a more accurate and robust climate change risk assessment. Our findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts, given that monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for land-dependent marine predators is more feasible during their breeding season.