■腹泻病,其特点是发病率和死亡率高,仍然是一个严重的公共卫生问题,尤其是在埃塞俄比亚等发展中国家。它给这些国家带来的巨大负担强调了确定腹泻预测因子的重要性。在埃塞俄比亚的阿姆哈拉地区,使用机器学习技术来确定5岁以下儿童腹泻的重要预测因素并没有得到很好的记录。因此,本研究旨在澄清这些问题。
■本研究的数据来自埃塞俄比亚人口与健康调查。我们已经应用了机器学习集成分类器模型,如随机森林,逻辑回归,K-最近的邻居,决策树,支持向量机,梯度增强,和朴素贝叶斯模型预测埃塞俄比亚5岁以下儿童腹泻的决定因素。最后,进行Shapley加性扩张(SHAP)值分析以预测腹泻。
■在使用的七种型号中,随机森林算法预测腹泻病的准确率最高,准确率为81.03%,曲线下面积为86.50%。调查了以下因素:财富状况最富有的家庭(对数奇数为-0.04),无急性呼吸道感染(ARIs)病史的儿童(-0.08的对数奇数),没有工作的母亲(日志奇数-0.04),年龄在23至36个月之间的儿童(对数奇数为-0.03),受过高等教育的母亲(对数比值比为-0.03),城市居民(对数奇数为-0.01),使用电力作为烹饪材料的家庭(对数为-0.12),生活在埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉地区的5岁以下儿童没有消瘦的迹象,与同龄人不同,未服用肠道寄生虫药物的5岁以下儿童与腹泻病显著相关.
■我们建议在阿姆哈拉地区实施减少5岁以下儿童腹泻发生率的计划。这些计划应侧重于消除阻碍母亲获得财富的社会经济障碍,良好的工作环境,烹饪燃料,教育,和他们的孩子的医疗保健。
UNASSIGNED: Diarrheal disease, characterized by high morbidity and mortality rates, continues to be a serious public health concern, especially in developing nations such as Ethiopia. The significant burden it imposes on these countries underscores the importance of identifying predictors of diarrhea. The use of machine learning techniques to identify significant predictors of diarrhea in children under the age of 5 in Ethiopia\'s Amhara Region is not well documented. Therefore, this study aimed to clarify these issues.
UNASSIGNED: This study\'s data have been extracted from the Ethiopian Population and Health Survey. We have applied machine learning ensemble classifier models such as random forests, logistic regression, K-nearest neighbors, decision trees, support vector machines, gradient boosting, and naive Bayes models to predict the determinants of diarrhea in children under the age of 5 in Ethiopia. Finally, Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) value analysis was performed to predict diarrhea.
UNASSIGNED: Among the seven models used, the random forest algorithm showed the highest accuracy in predicting diarrheal disease with an accuracy rate of 81.03% and an area under the curve of 86.50%. The following factors were investigated: families who had richest wealth status (log odd of -0.04), children without a history of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) (log odd of -0.08), mothers who did not have a job (log odd of -0.04), children aged between 23 and 36 months (log odd of -0.03), mothers with higher education (log odds ratio of -0.03), urban dwellers (log odd of -0.01), families using electricity as cooking material (log odd of -0.12), children under 5 years of age living in the Amhara region of Ethiopia who did not show signs of wasting, children under 5 years of age who had not taken medications for intestinal parasites unlike their peers and who showed a significant association with diarrheal disease.
UNASSIGNED: We recommend implementing programs to reduce the incidence of diarrhea in children under the age of 5 in the Amhara region. These programs should focus on removing socioeconomic barriers that impede mothers\' access to wealth, a favorable work environment, cooking fuel, education, and healthcare for their children.