MIMIC-III

MIMIC - III
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    据报道,血小板计数减少与几种新生儿炎症性疾病有关,包括败血症和坏死性小肠结肠炎;而其与新生儿急性肾损伤(AKI)的关联尚未报道。本研究旨在探讨血小板计数与新生儿AKI的关系。
    这是一项基于重症监护医学信息集市III(MIMIC-III)数据库的回顾性队列研究。根据基线特征提取数据,合并症,生命体征,实验室参数,和干预措施。采用Logistic回归分析评价血小板计数与AKI、结果显示为比值比(OR)和95%置信区间(CI).
    最终将1,576名新生儿纳入分析。调整出生体重后,脓毒症,动脉导管未闭,血细胞比容,中性粒细胞的百分比,和血管加压药的使用,我们发现,与最高四分位数(Q4)相比,最低四分位数(Q1)的血小板计数与AKI发生几率显著相关(OR=1.70,95%CI:1.01~2.87).
    低血小板计数与新生儿重症监护病房(NICU)中AKI的高几率相关,表明血小板计数可能是新生儿AKI的生物标志物。应进行大规模多中心研究以验证结果。
    UNASSIGNED: A decrease in platelet count has been reported to be associated with several neonatal inflammatory diseases, including sepsis and necrotizing enterocolitis; while its association with neonatal acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been reported. This study aims to explore the association between platelet count and neonatal AKI.
    UNASSIGNED: This was a retrospective cohort study based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Data were extracted based on baseline characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory parameters, and intervention measures. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between platelet count and AKI, and results were shown as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 1,576 neonates were finally included in the analysis. After adjusting birth weight, sepsis, patent ductus arteriosus, hematocrit, percentage of neutrophils, and vasopressor use, we found that platelet count in the lowest quartile (Q1) was significantly associated with the higher odds of AKI than platelet count in the highest quartile (Q4) (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.01-2.87).
    UNASSIGNED: Low platelet count was associated with the high odds of AKI in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), indicating that platelet count might be a biomarker for neonatal AKI. Large-scale multicenter studies should be performed to verify the results.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:ICU再入院和出院后死亡率构成重大挑战。以前的研究使用EHR和机器学习模型,但主要集中在结构化数据上。护理记录包含关键的非结构化信息,但是它们的使用具有挑战性。自然语言处理(NLP)可以从临床文本中提取结构化特征。这项研究提出了关键护理描述提取器(CNDE)来预测ICU出院后的死亡率,并通过分析电子护理记录来识别计划外再入院的高风险患者。
    目的:开发了一种能够感知护理记录的深度神经网络(NurnaNet),结合生物临床医学预训练语言模型(BioClinicalBERT)分析MIMICIII数据集中的电子健康记录(EHR),以预测患者在6个月和2年内的死亡风险.
    方法:采用队列和系统开发设计。
    方法:基于从MIMIC-III中提取的数据,在2001年至2012年美国危重病数据库中,对结果进行了分析.
    方法:我们使用MIMIC数据集的入院时间和出生日期信息计算患者年龄。18岁以下或89岁以上的患者,或是死在医院的人,被排除在外。我们分析了ICU住院患者的16,973份护理记录。
    方法:我们开发了一种称为关键护理描述提取器(CNDE)的技术,从文本中提取关键内容。我们使用对数似然比来提取关键词并结合BioClinicalBERT。我们预测出院患者六个月和两年后的生存率,并使用精度评估模型的性能,召回,F1得分,接收器工作特性曲线(ROC曲线),曲线下面积(AUC),和精度-召回曲线(PR曲线)。
    结果:研究结果表明,NurnaNet在六个月和两年内获得了良好的F1得分(0.67030,0.70874)。与单独使用BioClinicalBERT相比,六个月和两年内的预测表现分别提高了2.05%和1.08%,分别。
    结论:CNDE可以有效减少长格式记录并提取关键内容。NurnaNet在分析护理记录数据方面具有良好的F1评分,这有助于识别患者出院后的死亡风险,并尽快调整相关医疗的定期随访和治疗计划。
    BACKGROUND: ICU readmissions and post-discharge mortality pose significant challenges. Previous studies used EHRs and machine learning models, but mostly focused on structured data. Nursing records contain crucial unstructured information, but their utilization is challenging. Natural language processing (NLP) can extract structured features from clinical text. This study proposes the Crucial Nursing Description Extractor (CNDE) to predict post-ICU discharge mortality rates and identify high-risk patients for unplanned readmission by analyzing electronic nursing records.
    OBJECTIVE: Developed a deep neural network (NurnaNet) with the ability to perceive nursing records, combined with a bio-clinical medicine pre-trained language model (BioClinicalBERT) to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) in the MIMIC III dataset to predict the death of patients within six month and two year risk.
    METHODS: A cohort and system development design was used.
    METHODS: Based on data extracted from MIMIC-III, a database of critically ill in the US between 2001 and 2012, the results were analyzed.
    METHODS: We calculated patients\' age using admission time and date of birth information from the MIMIC dataset. Patients under 18 or over 89 years old, or who died in the hospital, were excluded. We analyzed 16,973 nursing records from patients\' ICU stays.
    METHODS: We have developed a technology called the Crucial Nursing Description Extractor (CNDE), which extracts key content from text. We use the logarithmic likelihood ratio to extract keywords and combine BioClinicalBERT. We predict the survival of discharged patients after six months and two years and evaluate the performance of the model using precision, recall, the F1-score, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), the area under the curve (AUC), and the precision-recall curve (PR curve).
    RESULTS: The research findings indicate that NurnaNet achieved good F1-scores (0.67030, 0.70874) within six months and two years. Compared to using BioClinicalBERT alone, there was an improvement in performance of 2.05 % and 1.08 % for predictions within six months and two years, respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: CNDE can effectively reduce long-form records and extract key content. NurnaNet has a good F1-score in analyzing the data of nursing records, which helps to identify the risk of death of patients after leaving the hospital and adjust the regular follow-up and treatment plan of relevant medical care as soon as possible.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:不规则时间序列(ITS)在医疗保健中很常见,因为患者数据根据临床指南/要求记录在电子健康记录(EHR)系统中,但不用于研究,并且取决于患者的健康状况。由于不规则,开发机器学习技术来发现隐藏在EHR大数据中的巨大智能是一项挑战,而不会失去下游患者预后预测任务的性能。
    方法:在本文中,我们建议感知者,一种基于交叉注意力的变压器变体,计算效率高,可以处理医疗保健中的长时间序列。我们进一步开发了持续的患者状态注意力模型,使用感知器和变压器处理EHR中的ITS。连续患者状态模型利用神经常微分方程来学习患者健康动力学,即,从观察到的不规则时间步长的患者健康轨迹,这使他们能够随时对患者状态进行采样。
    结果:检查了所提出的模型在PhysioNet-2012挑战和MIMIC-III数据集上的院内死亡率预测任务的性能。感知模型要么优于基线,要么表现与基线相当,与变压器模型相比,计算量减少了约9倍,没有明显的性能损失。检查医疗保健中的不规则性的实验表明,连续的患者状态模型优于基线。此外,模型的预测不确定性用于将极不确定的病例推荐给临床医生,这增强了模型的性能。代码已在https://codeocean.com/capsule/4587224上公开提供并验证。
    结论:Perceiver为医疗保健中处理长序列的时间序列提供了一种计算有效的潜在替代方案,连续患者状态注意力模型在处理时间序列不规则性方面优于传统和先进技术。此外,模型的预测不确定性有助于开发透明和可信的系统,可以根据临床医生的可用性使用。
    BACKGROUND: Irregular time series (ITS) are common in healthcare as patient data is recorded in an electronic health record (EHR) system as per clinical guidelines/requirements but not for research and depends on a patient\'s health status. Due to irregularity, it is challenging to develop machine learning techniques to uncover vast intelligence hidden in EHR big data, without losing performance on downstream patient outcome prediction tasks.
    METHODS: In this paper, we propose Perceiver, a cross-attention-based transformer variant that is computationally efficient and can handle long sequences of time series in healthcare. We further develop continuous patient state attention models, using Perceiver and transformer to deal with ITS in EHR. The continuous patient state models utilise neural ordinary differential equations to learn patient health dynamics, i.e., patient health trajectory from observed irregular time steps, which enables them to sample patient state at any time.
    RESULTS: The proposed models\' performance on in-hospital mortality prediction task on PhysioNet-2012 challenge and MIMIC-III datasets is examined. Perceiver model either outperforms or performs at par with baselines, and reduces computations by about nine times when compared to the transformer model, with no significant loss of performance. Experiments to examine irregularity in healthcare reveal that continuous patient state models outperform baselines. Moreover, the predictive uncertainty of the model is used to refer extremely uncertain cases to clinicians, which enhances the model\'s performance. Code is publicly available and verified at https://codeocean.com/capsule/4587224 .
    CONCLUSIONS: Perceiver presents a computationally efficient potential alternative for processing long sequences of time series in healthcare, and the continuous patient state attention models outperform the traditional and advanced techniques to handle irregularity in the time series. Moreover, the predictive uncertainty of the model helps in the development of transparent and trustworthy systems, which can be utilised as per the availability of clinicians.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    深度学习(DL)因其促进早期诊断的能力而在医疗保健领域获得了突出地位,治疗识别与相关预后,和不同的患者结果预测。然而,由于高度可变的医疗实践和非系统的数据收集方法,不幸的是,DL会加剧偏见并扭曲估计。例如,抽样偏倚的存在对任何统计模型的有效性和普适性都构成了重大挑战.即使使用DL方法,选择偏差会导致不一致,次优,或不准确的模型结果,特别是对于代表性不足的人群。因此,在没有解决偏见的情况下,DL方法的更广泛实施可能会造成意外伤害。在本文中,我们研究了一种新颖的偏差减少方法,该方法利用了通过Gerchberg-Saxton进行的频域变换,并从种族-种族偏差的角度对结果产生了相应的影响。
    Deep learning (DL) has gained prominence in healthcare for its ability to facilitate early diagnosis, treatment identification with associated prognosis, and varying patient outcome predictions. However, because of highly variable medical practices and unsystematic data collection approaches, DL can unfortunately exacerbate biases and distort estimates. For example, the presence of sampling bias poses a significant challenge to the efficacy and generalizability of any statistical model. Even with DL approaches, selection bias can lead to inconsistent, suboptimal, or inaccurate model results, especially for underrepresented populations. Therefore, without addressing bias, wider implementation of DL approaches can potentially cause unintended harm. In this paper, we studied a novel method for bias reduction that leverages the frequency domain transformation via the Gerchberg-Saxton and corresponding impact on the outcome from a racio-ethnic bias perspective.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    乳酸脱氢酶与白蛋白比值(LAR)对急性心力衰竭(AHF)患者生存的影响尚不清楚。我们旨在分析LAR对AHF患者生存的影响。我们从重症监护数据库III中检索了符合条件的患者。对于我们研究中的每个患者,我们收集了临床数据和人口统计信息.采用多因素logistic回归建模和平滑曲线拟合评估LAR评分是否可以作为预测AHF患者预后的独立指标。从数据库中提取了总共2,177名患者。幸存者的平均年龄为69.88岁,而非幸存者的平均年龄为71.95岁。幸存者组的平均LAR比为13.44,非幸存者组为17.38。LAR和住院死亡率几乎呈线性关系,根据平滑曲线拟合(P<0.001)。根据多变量逻辑回归,LAR可能是预测AHF患者预后的独立危险因素(奇数比=1.09;P<0.001)。LAR比率是与AHF患者住院死亡率增加相关的独立危险因素。
    The effect of the lactate dehydrogenase to albumin ratio (LAR) on the survival of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) is unclear. We aimed to analyze the impact of LAR on survival in patients with AHF. We retrieved eligible patients for our study from the Monitoring in Intensive Care Database III. For each patient in our study, we gathered clinical data and demographic information. We conducted multivariate logistic regression modeling and smooth curve fitting to assess whether the LAR score could be used as an independent indicator for predicting the prognosis of AHF patients. A total of 2,177 patients were extracted from the database. Survivors had an average age of 69.88, whereas nonsurvivors had an average age of 71.95. The survivor group had a mean LAR ratio of 13.44, and the nonsurvivor group had a value of 17.38. LAR and in-hospital mortality had a nearly linear correlation, according to smooth curve fitting (P < 0.001). According to multivariate logistic regression, the LAR may be an independent risk factor in predicting the prognosis of patients with AHF (odd ratio = 1.09; P < 0.001). The LAR ratio is an independent risk factor associated with increased in-hospital mortality rates in patients with AHF.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    心力衰竭已经成为一个巨大的公共卫生问题,不能准确预测再入院将进一步导致疾病的高成本和高死亡率。构建再入院预测模型可以辅助医生进行决策,防止病患恶化,减轻费用负担。本文从MIMIC-III数据库中提取患者出院记录。它将患者分为三个研究类别:没有再入院,30天内重新接纳,30天后再入院,预测患者的再入院。我们提出了HR-BGCN模型来预测患者的再入院。首先,我们使用Adaptive-TMix来改进几个类别的预测指标,并减少不平衡类别的影响。然后,提出了基于知识的图注意机制。通过引入文档级显式图结构,图节点特征的编码能力显著提高。通过图学习获得的段落级表示与BERT的上下文令牌级表示相结合,最后,进行多分类任务。我们还比较了几种典型的图学习分类模型,以验证模型的有效性。例如IA-GCN模型,GAT模型,等。结果表明,本文提出的HR-BGCN模型对心力衰竭患者30天再入院的平均F1评分为88.26%,平均准确率为90.47%。HR-BGCN模型在预测心力衰竭再入院方面明显优于图学习分类模型。它可以帮助医生预测30天患者的再入院时间,然后降低患者的再入院率。
    Heart failure has become a huge public health problem, and failure to accurately predict readmission will further lead to the disease\'s high cost and high mortality. The construction of readmission prediction model can assist doctors in making decisions to prevent patients from deteriorating and reduce the cost burden. This paper extracts the patient discharge records from the MIMIC-III database. It divides the patients into three research categories: no readmission, readmission within 30 days, and readmission after 30 days, to predict the readmission of patients. We propose the HR-BGCN model to predict the readmission of patients. First, we use the Adaptive-TMix to improve the prediction indicators of a few categories and reduce the impact of unbalanced categories. Then, the knowledge-informed graph attention mechanism is proposed. By introducing a document-level explicit diagram structure, the coding ability of graph node features is significantly improved. The paragraph-level representation obtained through graph learning is combined with the context token-level representation of BERT, and finally, the multi-classification task is carried out. We also compare several typical graph learning classification models to verify the model\'s effectiveness, such as the IA-GCN model, GAT model, etc. The results show that the average F1 score of the HR-BGCN model proposed in this paper for 30-day readmission of heart failure patients is 88.26%, and the average accuracy is 90.47%. The HR-BGCN model is significantly better than the graph learning classification model for predicting heart failure readmission. It can help doctors predict the 30-day readmission of patients, then reduce the readmission rate of patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:机器学习方法有望利用可用数据并生成更高质量的数据,同时减轻医疗保健专业人员的数据收集负担。国际疾病分类(ICD)诊断数据,为计费和流行病学目的在全球范围内收集,代表了结构化信息的宝贵来源。然而,ICD编码是一项具有挑战性的任务。虽然许多先前的研究报道了自动ICD分类的有希望的结果,它们通常描述特定于输入数据的模型架构,使用不同的性能指标和ICD代码子集进行异构评估。本研究旨在探索使用通用方法评估和构建更有效的计算机辅助编码(CAC)系统,专注于ICD层次结构的使用,药物数据和前馈神经网络架构。
    方法:我们使用MIMIC-III临床数据库进行综合实验,映射到OMOP数据模型。我们的评估包括各种绩效指标,除了对多任务的调查之外,分层,和神经网络的不平衡学习。
    结果:我们引入了一种新的度量标准,RE@R,为ICD编码任务量身定制,它为医疗保健信息学从业者提供了可解释的见解,帮助他们评估辅助编码系统的质量。我们的发现强调,选择性地选择ICD代码会降低检索性能,而不会提高所选子集的性能。我们表明,对NDCG和AUPRC等指标的优化在排名性能方面优于传统的基于F1的指标。我们观察到,不同ICD级别的神经网络训练同时为排名和显着的运行时间增益提供了较小的好处。然而,我们的模型没有从用于ICD代码检索的分层或类别不平衡校正技术中获益.
    结论:这项研究为有兴趣开发和评估CAC系统的研究人员和医疗保健从业人员提供了有价值的见解。使用简单的顺序神经网络模型,我们确认医疗处方是CAC系统的丰富数据源,与基于文本的模型相比,为一小部分计算负荷提供有竞争力的检索能力。我们的研究强调了指标选择的重要性,并挑战了与ICD代码子设置相关的现有实践,以进行模型培训和评估。
    Machine learning methods hold the promise of leveraging available data and generating higher-quality data while alleviating the data collection burden on healthcare professionals. International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnoses data, collected globally for billing and epidemiological purposes, represents a valuable source of structured information. However, ICD coding is a challenging task. While numerous previous studies reported promising results in automatic ICD classification, they often describe input data specific model architectures, that are heterogeneously evaluated with different performance metrics and ICD code subsets. This study aims to explore the evaluation and construction of more effective Computer Assisted Coding (CAC) systems using generic approaches, focusing on the use of ICD hierarchy, medication data and a feed forward neural network architecture.
    We conduct comprehensive experiments using the MIMIC-III clinical database, mapped to the OMOP data model. Our evaluations encompass various performance metrics, alongside investigations into multitask, hierarchical, and imbalanced learning for neural networks.
    We introduce a novel metric, , tailored to the ICD coding task, which offers interpretable insights for healthcare informatics practitioners, aiding them in assessing the quality of assisted coding systems. Our findings highlight that selectively cherry-picking ICD codes diminish retrieval performance without performance improvement over the selected subset. We show that optimizing for metrics such as NDCG and AUPRC outperforms traditional F1-based metrics in ranking performance. We observe that Neural Network training on different ICD levels simultaneously offers minor benefits for ranking and significant runtime gains. However, our models do not derive benefits from hierarchical or class imbalance correction techniques for ICD code retrieval.
    This study offers valuable insights for researchers and healthcare practitioners interested in developing and evaluating CAC systems. Using a straightforward sequential neural network model, we confirm that medical prescriptions are a rich data source for CAC systems, providing competitive retrieval capabilities for a fraction of the computational load compared to text-based models. Our study underscores the importance of metric selection and challenges existing practices related to ICD code sub-setting for model training and evaluation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为患者分配医疗代码对于医疗保健组织至关重要,不仅用于计费目的,还用于维护患者病史的准确记录和分析某些程序的输出。由于疾病密码的丰富,对于医学专家来说,手动将这些代码分配给每个程序可能是费力且耗时的。为了解决这个问题,我们讨论了ICD-9代码的自动预测,最流行和被广泛接受的医学编码系统。我们引入了一个专门用于分析多模态数据的双流深度学习框架。该框架适用于广泛且公开可用的MIMIC-III数据集,使我们能够利用数字和基于文本的数据来改进ICD-9代码预测。我们的系统使用文本表示模型来理解基于文本的医疗记录;门控循环单元(GRU)对数字健康记录进行建模;并融合这两个流以自动预测重症监护病房中使用的ICD-9代码。我们讨论了预处理和分类方法,并证明了我们提出的两流模型优于文献中的其他最新研究。
    Assigning medical codes for patients is essential for healthcare organizations, not only for billing purposes but also for maintaining accurate records of patients\' medical histories and analyzing the outputs of certain procedures. Due to the abundance of disease codes, it can be laborious and time-consuming for medical specialists to manually assign these codes to each procedure. To address this problem, we discuss the automatic prediction of ICD-9 codes, the most popular and widely accepted system of medical coding. We introduce a two-stream deep learning framework specifically designed to analyze multi-modal data. This framework is applied to the extensive and publicly available MIMIC-III dataset, enabling us to leverage both numerical and text-based data for improved ICD-9 code prediction. Our system uses text representation models to understand the text-based medical records; the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to model the numerical health records; and fuses these two streams to automatically predict the ICD-9 codes used in the intensive care unit. We discuss the preprocessing and classification methods and demonstrate that our proposed two-stream model outperforms other state-of-the-art studies in the literature.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在整个疾病进展过程中,临床医生和患者必须在一系列关键决策点做出治疗决策。动态治疗方案是一组顺序决策规则,这些规则基于累积的患者信息返回治疗决策,就像电子病历(EMR)数据中常见的那样。当应用于患者群体时,一个最佳的治疗方案导致最有利的结果平均。确定最大化剩余寿命的最佳治疗方案对于患有危及生命的疾病(如败血症)的患者尤其可取。涉及器官功能障碍的严重感染的复杂疾病。我们引入剩余寿命值估计器(ReLiVE),在固定治疗方案下,累积受限剩余寿命的期望值的估计器。建立在ReLiVE上,我们提出了一种估计最佳治疗方案的方法,该方案可以最大化预期的累积受限剩余寿命。我们提出的方法,ReLive-Q,通过后向归纳法Q学习进行估计。我们说明了ReLiVE-Q在仿真研究中的实用性,我们应用ReLiVE-Q,使用多参数智能监测重症监护数据库中的EMR数据来估计重症监护病房中败血症患者的最佳治疗方案。最终,我们证明ReLiVE-Q利用累积的患者信息来估计个性化治疗方案,从而优化剩余寿命的临床意义功能.
    Clinicians and patients must make treatment decisions at a series of key decision points throughout disease progression. A dynamic treatment regime is a set of sequential decision rules that return treatment decisions based on accumulating patient information, like that commonly found in electronic medical record (EMR) data. When applied to a patient population, an optimal treatment regime leads to the most favorable outcome on average. Identifying optimal treatment regimes that maximize residual life is especially desirable for patients with life-threatening diseases such as sepsis, a complex medical condition that involves severe infections with organ dysfunction. We introduce the residual life value estimator (ReLiVE), an estimator for the expected value of cumulative restricted residual life under a fixed treatment regime. Building on ReLiVE, we present a method for estimating an optimal treatment regime that maximizes expected cumulative restricted residual life. Our proposed method, ReLiVE-Q, conducts estimation via the backward induction algorithm Q-learning. We illustrate the utility of ReLiVE-Q in simulation studies, and we apply ReLiVE-Q to estimate an optimal treatment regime for septic patients in the intensive care unit using EMR data from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring Intensive Care database. Ultimately, we demonstrate that ReLiVE-Q leverages accumulating patient information to estimate personalized treatment regimes that optimize a clinically meaningful function of residual life.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    脓毒症,一种复杂的医疗状况,涉及严重的感染,危及生命的器官功能障碍,是全球死亡的主要原因。脓毒症的治疗是极具挑战性的。在做出治疗决定时,临床医生和患者希望准确预测平均剩余寿命(MRL),利用所有可用的患者信息,包括纵向生物标志物数据。生物标志物是生物学的,临床,以及其他反映疾病进展的变量,这些变量通常在临床环境中对患者进行重复测量。动态预测方法利用累积生物标志物测量来提高性能,在新的测量结果可用时提供更新的预测。我们介绍了两种使用纵向生物标志物动态预测MRL的方法。在这两种方法中,我们首先使用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)来构建生物标志物轨迹的编码表示,称为“上下文向量”。“在我们的第一个方法中,LSTM-GLM,我们通过包含上下文向量作为协变量的转换后的MRL模型动态预测MRL。在我们的第二种方法中,LSTM-NN,我们使用前馈神经网络从上下文向量动态预测MRL。我们在仿真研究中证明了两种提出的方法相对于竞争方法的改进性能。我们应用所提出的方法来使用电子病历数据动态预测重症监护病房中败血症患者的受限平均剩余寿命(RMRL)。我们证明了LSTM-GLM和LSTM-NN是生产个性化的有用工具,RMRL的实时预测,可以帮助通知脓毒症患者的治疗决策。
    Sepsis, a complex medical condition that involves severe infections with life-threatening organ dysfunction, is a leading cause of death worldwide. Treatment of sepsis is highly challenging. When making treatment decisions, clinicians and patients desire accurate predictions of mean residual life (MRL) that leverage all available patient information, including longitudinal biomarker data. Biomarkers are biological, clinical, and other variables reflecting disease progression that are often measured repeatedly on patients in the clinical setting. Dynamic prediction methods leverage accruing biomarker measurements to improve performance, providing updated predictions as new measurements become available. We introduce two methods for dynamic prediction of MRL using longitudinal biomarkers. in both methods, we begin by using long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) to construct encoded representations of the biomarker trajectories, referred to as \"context vectors.\" In our first method, the LSTM-GLM, we dynamically predict MRL via a transformed MRL model that includes the context vectors as covariates. In our second method, the LSTM-NN, we dynamically predict MRL from the context vectors using a feed-forward neural network. We demonstrate the improved performance of both proposed methods relative to competing methods in simulation studies. We apply the proposed methods to dynamically predict the restricted mean residual life (RMRL) of septic patients in the intensive care unit using electronic medical record data. We demonstrate that the LSTM-GLM and the LSTM-NN are useful tools for producing individualized, real-time predictions of RMRL that can help inform the treatment decisions of septic patients.
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