Long-term dynamics

长期动态
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    冬小麦,作为世界上主要的主食作物之一,在确保粮食安全和制定国际粮食贸易政策方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,高分辨率相对稀缺,过去几十年的长时间系列冬小麦地图。这项研究利用Landsat和Sentinel-2数据制作了描绘GoogleEarthEngine(GEE)中冬小麦分布的地图。进一步分析了山东省冬小麦栽培的综合时空动态,中国。应用间隙填充和Savitzky-Golay滤波方法(GF-SG)来解决LandsatNDVI(归一化植被指数)时间序列中的时间不连续性。基于物候特征的六个特征用于区分冬小麦与其他土地覆盖类型。由此产生的地图从2000年到2022年,从2000年到2017年分辨率为30米,从2018年到2022年分辨率提高了10米。这些地图的总体准确率为80.5%至93.3%,Kappa系数为71.3%至909%,F1评分为84.2%至96.9%。在分析期间,从2000年到2011年,冬小麦种植面积有所下降。然而,发生了明显的变化,从2014年到2017年观察到冬小麦种植面积增加,从2018年到2022年随后增加。这项研究强调了使用卫星观测数据进行冬小麦长期测绘和监测的可行性。拟议的方法对将这种绘图和监测方法扩展到其他类似领域具有长期影响。
    Winter wheat, as one of the world\'s key staple crops, plays a crucial role in ensuring food security and shaping international food trade policies. However, there has been a relative scarcity of high-resolution, long time-series winter wheat maps over the past few decades. This study utilized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data to produce maps depicting winter wheat distribution in Google Earth Engine (GEE). We further analyzed the comprehensive spatial-temporal dynamics of winter wheat cultivation in Shandong Province, China. The gap filling and Savitzky-Golay filter method (GF-SG) was applied to address temporal discontinuities in the Landsat NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) time series. Six features based on phenological characteristics were used to distinguish winter wheat from other land cover types. The resulting maps spanned from 2000 to 2022, featuring a 30-m resolution from 2000 to 2017 and an improved 10-m resolution from 2018 to 2022. The overall accuracy of these maps ranged from 80.5 to 93.3%, with Kappa coefficients ranging from 71.3 to 909% and F1 scores from 84.2 to 96.9%. Over the analyzed period, the area dedicated to winter wheat cultivation experienced a decline from 2000 to 2011. However, a notable shift occurred with an increase in winter wheat acreage observed from 2014 to 2017 and a subsequent rise from 2018 to 2022. This research highlights the viability of using satellite observation data for the long-term mapping and monitoring of winter wheat. The proposed methodology has long-term implications for extending this mapping and monitoring approach to other similar areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    湖泊溶解有机质(DOM)池与湖泊生态系统相互作用的特征,研究沉积物DOM特征与湖泊生态系统变化之间的响应,可以揭示生态系统演化与碳生物地球化学循环之间的内在联系。寒冷和干旱地区的湖泊对变化敏感,积累了大量的碳作为DOM,这可能为生态系统演化与时间维度上沉积物DOM特征变化之间的更明确关系提供了一个窗口。然而,在时间尺度上,沉积物DOM与生态系统演化之间的响应和潜在机制存在相当大的盲点。在这项研究中,结合多种方法,研究了中国寒冷干旱区三种不同湖泊生态系统沉积物DOM特征的变化趋势与脆弱湖泊生态系统演变之间的关系。沉积物DOM稳定性之间有很强的正相关关系,尤其是羞辱,发现了生态系统退化,这三个湖泊是一致的。超高分辨率质谱和结构方程模型表明,生态系统的变化通过直接途径(0.24)影响沉积物DOM的稳定性,例如DOM湖池中的陆地DOM的内容,和间接途径,包括藻类介导的途径(0.43)和盐度介导的途径(0.22),所有这些都增加了湖泊DOM池和沉积物中难处理DOM的含量。基于DOM稳定性变化可以反过来作用于生态系统的事实,进一步推断了生态系统退化与DOM稳定性增强之间可能的正反馈机制。这些结果表明,DOM中沉积物稳定性的持续增加可能意味着寒冷干旱地区湖泊的生态系统退化。该研究为通过沉积物DOM识别生态系统演化提供了新的视角,提高了对湖泊生态系统演化与DOM生物地球化学循环相互作用的认识。
    The characteristics of lake dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool and lake ecosystem interact, and studying the responses between sediment DOM characteristics and lake ecosystem changes may shed light on the inherent connection between ecosystem evolution and carbon biogeochemical cycles. Lakes in cold and arid regions are sensitive to changes and accumulate large amounts of carbon as DOM, which may provide a window into more explicit relationships between ecosystem evolution and changes in sediment DOM characteristics in time dimension. However, considerable blind spots exist in the responses between the sediment DOM and ecosystem evolution on time scale and the underlying mechanisms. In this study, multiple approaches were combined to investigate the relationship between the variation trend of sediment DOM characteristics and the evolution of fragile lake ecosystems across three different lake ecosystems in cold and arid regions of China. A strong positive relationship between sediment DOM stabilities, especially humification, and ecosystem degradation was found, consistent for the three lakes. Ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometry and structural equation modeling revealed that the changes of ecosystems affected sediment DOM stability through direct pathways (0.24), such as the contents of terrestrial DOM in lake DOM pool, and indirect pathways, including algae-mediated (0.43) and salinity-mediated pathways (0.22), which all increased the contents of refractory DOM in the lake DOM pool and sediments. Based on the fact that DOM stability changes could act on the ecosystem in turn, a possible positive feedback mechanism between ecosystem degradation and increased DOM stability was further inferred. These results suggested that the continuous increased stability of sediment DOM in may implies ecosystem degradation of lakes in the cold and arid regions. This study provides a new perspective for recognizing ecosystem evolution through sediment DOM and improves the understanding of the interaction of lake ecosystem evolution and the biogeochemical cycle of DOM.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    农药代谢物经常在地下水中检测到,经常超过其母体农药的浓度。停止施用某些农药通常不会导致地下水中代谢物浓度的预期下降,这可能是由土壤中的残留物引起的。虽然土壤中的农药残留有据可查,关于代谢物残留的研究很少。通过结合土壤分析,我们调查了土壤/非饱和区是否可以作为地下水中代谢物的长期来源,地下水分析和数值模拟。现场研究的重点是除草剂氯硝唑(CLZ)及其经常检测到的代谢物去苯基-氯硝唑(DPC)和甲基-去苯基-氯硝唑(MDPC),而在模型中考虑了其他农药和代谢物。在农业区的土壤样本中,上一次CLZ申请是在5到10年前,我们观察到10倍(DPC:0.22-7.4µgkg-1)和6倍(MDPC:0.12-3.1µgkg-1)的代谢物浓度比CLZ(<0.050-1.0µgkg-1)高。计算表明,大多数代谢物(DPC:63-96%,MDPC:74-97%)被吸附,尽管它们的吸附趋势较低。代谢物的保留特别与有机碳含量有关。计算的孔隙水浓度在土壤剖面的最深处(75-100厘米)最高,DPC和MDPC的中值浓度为3.6和1.7µgL-1,分别。DPC和MDPC的地下水浓度在从农业区下降的监测井中比上升的高3至3.5倍。这种增加凸显了土壤和非饱和区作为农药施用停止后长期代谢来源的潜力,与计算出的高孔隙水浓度一致。数值流动和运输模型模拟表明,来自土壤和非饱和区的这种输入可能会在十多年内导致地下水中代谢物浓度升高(>0.1µgL-1)。该研究强调,土壤和非饱和区可以作为农药代谢物的长期来源,即使它们的迁移率远高于母体化合物。
    Pesticide metabolites are frequently detected in groundwater, often exceeding the concentrations of their parent pesticides. Ceasing the application of certain pesticides has often not led to the expected decrease in metabolite concentrations in groundwater, which is potentially caused by residues in soil. Whereas pesticide residues in soils are well-documented, there are only few studies about metabolite residues. We investigated if the soil/unsaturated zone can act as a long-term source for metabolites in groundwater by combining soil analysis, groundwater analysis and numerical modelling. The field study focused on the herbicide chloridazon (CLZ) and its frequently detected metabolites desphenyl-chloridazon (DPC) and methyl-desphenyl-chloridazon (MDPC) while in the model additional pesticides and metabolites were considered. In soil samples from an agricultural area, where the last CLZ application was 5 to 10 years ago, we observed 10 times (DPC: 0.22 - 7.4 µg kg-1) and 6 times (MDPC: 0.12 - 3.1 µg kg-1) higher metabolite concentrations compared to CLZ (< 0.050 - 1.0 µg kg-1). Calculations suggested that the majority of the metabolites (DPC: 63 - 96%, MDPC: 74 - 97%) were sorbed despite their lower sorption tendency. The metabolite retention was in particular related to the organic carbon content. The calculated pore water concentrations were highest in the deepest part of the soil profile (75 - 100 cm) with median concentrations of 3.6 and 1.7 µg L-1 for DPC and MDPC, respectively. The groundwater concentrations of DPC and MDPC were 3 to 3.5 times higher in monitoring wells downgradient from the agricultural zone than upgradient of it. This increase highlights the potential of soil and unsaturated zone as a long-term metabolite source after the application stop of pesticides, consistent with the calculated elevated pore water concentrations. Numerical flow and transport model simulations suggested that this input from soil and unsaturated zone can cause elevated metabolite concentrations (> 0.1 µg L-1) in groundwater over more than one decade. The study highlights that soil and unsaturated zone can act as a long-term source of pesticide metabolites even if they have much higher mobility than the parent compound.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    提出了对Beloyarsk核电站15公里影响区的7条河流进行长期放射生态监测的结果。对河流生态系统主要组成部分中各种天然和人工放射性核素的含量进行了比较分析:地表水,底部沉积物,洪泛区土壤,已经制造了大型植物和鱼类动物。BeloyarskNPP的热(AMB-100和AMB-200)和快速(BN-600和BN-800)反应堆的废弃技术水对Pyshma和Olkhovka河流的水和底部沉积物中放射性重要同位素含量的影响已被评估。研究表明,从热堆到快堆的过渡导致了BeloyarskNPP所在地区河流中人工放射性核素的摄入量显着减少。所以,在1978-2019年期间,Olkhovka河的水中,137Cs的比活动减少了480、3H-36、90Sr-3.5倍。在AMB-100和AMB-200反应堆发生紧急情况后的恢复工作期间,注意到人工放射性同位素向河流生态系统的最大排放。近年来,水中人工放射性核素的含量,BeloyarskNPP影响区的大型植物和鱼类动物,除了Olkhovka,处于区域背景水平。
    The results of long-term radioecological monitoring of seven rivers in the 15-km zone of influence of the Beloyarsk Nuclear Power Plant have been presented. A comparative analysis of the content of a wide range of natural and artificial radionuclides in the main components of river ecosystems: surface waters, bottom sediments, floodplain soils, macrophytes and ichthyofauna has been made. The influence of waste technological waters of thermal (AMB-100 and AMB-200) and fast (BN-600 and BN-800) reactors of the Beloyarsk NPP on the content of radiologically significant isotopes in the water and bottom sediments of the Pyshma and Olkhovka rivers has been evaluated. It has been studied that the transition from thermal to fast reactors contributed to a significant decrease in the intake of artificial radionuclides into the rivers of the area where the Beloyarsk NPP is located. So, in the water of the Olkhovka river for the period 1978-2019 the decrease in the specific activity of 137Cs was 480, 3H - 36, 90Sr - 3.5 times. The maximum discharge of artificial radioisotopes into river ecosystems was noted during the period of recovery work after emergencies at the AMB-100 and AMB-200 reactors. In recent years, the content of artificial radionuclides in water, macrophytes and ichthyofauna of rivers in the zone of influence of the Beloyarsk NPP, except for the Olkhovka, is at the level of the regional background.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    许多昆虫食草动物进行明显的竞争,其中两个物种通过共同的天敌相互作用。在昆虫攻击时,植物释放挥发性混合物,吸引天敌,但是这些挥发物是否会介导草食动物之间的明显竞争尚不清楚。我们研究了豆科植物在被Acyrthosiphonpisum蚜虫侵染后释放的挥发物对Sitobionavenae蚜虫种群动态和适应性的作用,和小麦韧皮部汁液代谢产物。在现场实验中,通过两种处理方法研究了小麦上的S.avenae蚜虫的动态:将蚜虫菌落暴露于A.pisum诱导的豆挥发物和排除天敌。进行了温室实验和小麦韧皮部分泌物中主要代谢产物的分析,以更好地了解田间试验的结果。在田野里,当蚜虫暴露于天敌时,豆的挥发物不会影响S.avenae的动态或存活。如果受到保护,然而,挥发物导致更大的蚜虫菌落。与这一观点一致,在温室实验中,蚜虫诱导的豆挥发物增加了S.avenae蚜虫在小麦植株上的存活,但不是人工饮食。这表明挥发物可能通过小麦植物的代谢变化使S.avenae菌落受益,虽然我们没有发现对小麦韧皮部渗出物组成有任何影响。我们报告了一种潜在的关联易感性案例,即植物挥发物削弱了接收植物的防御能力,从而提高食草动物的性能。
    Many insect herbivores engage in apparent competition whereby two species interact through shared natural enemies. Upon insect attack, plants release volatile blends that attract natural enemies, but whether these volatiles mediate apparent competition between herbivores is not yet known. We investigate the role of volatiles that are emitted by bean plants upon infestation by Acyrthosiphon pisum aphids on the population dynamics and fitness of Sitobion avenae aphids, and on wheat phloem sap metabolites. In a field experiment, the dynamics of S. avenae aphids on wheat were studied by crossing two treatments: exposure of aphid colonies to A. pisum-induced bean volatiles and exclusion of natural enemies. Glasshouse experiments and analyses of primary metabolites in wheat phloem exudates were performed to better understand the results from the field experiment. In the field, bean volatiles did not affect S. avenae dynamics or survival when aphids were exposed to natural enemies. When protected from them, however, volatiles led to larger aphid colonies. In agreement with this observation, in glasshouse experiments, aphid-induced bean volatiles increased the survival of S. avenae aphids on wheat plants, but not on an artificial diet. This suggests that volatiles may benefit S. avenae colonies via metabolic changes in wheat plants, although we did not find any effect on wheat phloem exudate composition. We report a potential case of associational susceptibility whereby plant volatiles weaken the defences of receiving plants, thus leading to increased herbivore performance.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    空气污染是欧洲最大的环境健康风险。颗粒物(PM)浓度是最有害的污染物,代表了可持续发展目标(SDGs)中的主要空气质量指标。欧洲的空气质量监测基于监测网络,该网络过于粗糙,无法全面评估空气污染负担。我们使用贝叶斯地统计模型将原始污染物数据与遥感产品联系起来,并首次在2006-2019年期间以1km2的空间分辨率估算了泛欧近地表细颗粒(PM2.5)和粗颗粒(PM10)的浓度。我们评估世界卫生组织(WHO)和欧盟(EU)设定的空气质量阈值的遵守情况,并评估国家趋势。结果表明,在过去的14年里,PM10和PM2.5浓度下降了36.5%(95%可信区间:30.3,41.9%)和39.1%(26.6,50.5%),分别。暴露于高于WHO阈值的PM10水平的人数从2006年的78.3%(52.6,91.8%)下降到2019年的28.4%(16.2,43.7%);对于PM2.5,下降幅度较小:从2006年的91.0%(61.3,99.1%)下降到2019年的53.6%(33.5,76.3%)。尽管总体情况有了明显的改善,需要采取更严格的措施来确保遵守世卫组织的准则。
    Air pollution poses the largest environmental health risk in Europe. Particulate matter (PM) concentrations are the most harmful pollutants representing the main air quality indicator in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The air quality surveillance in Europe is based on a monitoring network that is too coarse for a comprehensive evaluation of the air pollution burden. We link raw pollutant data with remotely sensed products using Bayesian geostatistical models and for the first time estimate pan-European near-surface concentrations of both fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10) particles at 1 km2 spatial resolution during 2006-2019. We evaluate the compliance with the air quality thresholds set by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Union (EU) and assess country-wise trends. The results show that during the last 14 years, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations declined by 36.5% (95% credible interval: 30.3, 41.9%) and 39.1% (26.6, 50.5%), respectively. The number of people exposed to PM10 levels above the WHO thresholds decreased from 78.3% (52.6, 91.8%) in 2006 to 28.4% (16.2, 43.7%) in 2019; for PM2.5, the decrease was smaller: from 91.0% (61.3, 99.1%) exposed in 2006 to 53.6% (33.5, 76.3%) in 2019. Although there is a clear improvement in the overall picture, stricter measures are needed to ensure compliance with the WHO guidelines.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人类世是由人类活动引起的快速变化时期,包括影响当地社区的物种组成和它们之间的连通性的脉冲和压力干扰,在多个尺度上产生时空动力学。我们连续28年评估了全球变暖和反复的强烈飓风对波多黎各山地热带雨林腹足动物群落的影响。具体来说,我们每年量化元社区结构;评估全球变暖的影响,飓风引起的干扰,和次生演替对元统结构年际变化的影响;并评估了以前土地利用对元统结构的遗产。在28年的时间内,每年对腹足动物进行采样,其特征是与3次主要飓风(HurricanesHugo,乔治,和玛丽亚)。每年,我们评估了一致性(物种的环境分布沿着共同的潜在环境梯度不间断的程度),物种范围周转,和物种范围边界聚集;并对每对物种进行了共生分析。我们使用广义线性混合效应模型来评估元社区对全球变暖和干扰方面的长期响应。元社区结构非常稳定,具有一致的物种共现模式。扰动,变暖,演替阶段对元社区结构影响不大。尽管环境条件的时间变化很大,物种群体通过空间和时间跟踪他们的生态位,以保持相同的总体结构。因此,元社区结构对多种干扰具有很强的抵抗力和弹性,即使是那些极大改变森林结构的人。
    The Anthropocene is a time of rapid change induced by human activities, including pulse and press disturbances that affect the species composition of local communities and connectivity among them, giving rise to spatiotemporal dynamics at multiple scales. We evaluate effects of global warming and repeated intense hurricanes on gastropod metacommunities in montane tropical rainforests of Puerto Rico for each of 28 consecutive years. Specifically, we quantified metacommunity structure each year; assessed effects of global warming, hurricane-induced disturbance, and secondary succession on interannual variation in metacommunity structure; and evaluated legacies of previous land use on metacommunity structure. Gastropods were sampled annually during a 28-year period characterized by disturbance and succession associated with 3 major hurricanes (Hurricanes Hugo, Georges, and Maria). For each year, we evaluated coherence (the extent to which the environmental distributions of species are uninterrupted along a common latent environmental gradient), species range turnover, and species range boundary clumping; and conducted co-occurrence analyses for each pair of species. We used generalized linear mixed-effects model to evaluate long-term responses of the metacommunity to aspects of global warming and disturbance. Metacommunity structure was remarkably stable, with consistent patterns of species co-occurrence. Disturbance, warming, and successional stage had little effect on metacommunity structure. Despite great temporal variation in environmental conditions, groups of species tracked their niche through space and time to maintain the same general structure. Consequently, metacommunity structure was highly resistant and resilient to multiple disturbances, even those that greatly altered forest structure.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Warming, land-use change, and habitat loss are three major threats to aquatic biodiversity worldwide under the influences of anthropogenic disturbances. Positive feedback between warming and bottom-up regulation may cause irreversible ecological regime shifts. Threshold dynamics of interspecific interactions have been rarely studied in freshwater fish communities using threshold community models. Here we use 66 years (1950-2015) of data to link four ecological regime shifts of 9-species fish communities to climatic and land use changes in Lake Hulun, the largest freshwater lake of Northern China. Overfishing caused the collapse of piscivorous fish populations and an ecological regime shift of Lake Hulun in the late 1950s. The first recorded algal bloom of Lake Hulun took place in 1986, with accelerated warming and rapid increases in livestock grazing. The dominance of planktivorous minnow populations reduced fish biodiversity in a nonlinear, threshold manner when annual mean ambient temperature was >0.12 °C. Multivariate environmental vector regression demonstrated that warming, eutrophication, and water-storage reduction (i.e., habitat loss) were related to three ecological regime shifts of Lake Hulun from 1960 to 2015. Multivariate autoregressive models (MAR) did not detect predation by piscivorous fish in Lake Hulun after 1960. Threshold MAR models indicated that dominant minnow populations and other prey fish populations switched from top-down to bottom-up control during the 1980s. Sustained positive feedback between warming, the dominance of planktivorous fish populations, and bottom-up regulation caused predator-prey role reversal, and probably resulted in three regime shifts of Lake Hulun over 56 years. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of ecological regime shifts in Hulun Lake fish communities, and has potential implications for fish species living in similar environments that are subject to global warming, land-use changes, and overfishing.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    摘要-已经研究了北德维纳河下游浮游动物分类组成的长期动态以及某些水化学因素对其丰度的影响。发现浮游动物的种类清单包括50年来的141种:1965年共有98个分类单元,2012-2019年共有104个分类单元。给出了浮游动物及其分类群的时空丰度分布分析结果。在研究水域的下部,发现了浮游动物的丰度显着增加(由于co足类)和分类学结构的变化。2019年,在研究期间首次注意到浮游动物结构形成复合体的变化。发现物种多样性在被分类为“严重污染”和“肮脏”的水域中达到很高的值,“这是浮游动物群落复杂结构的证据。影响浮游动物丰度水平分布的主要因素是水中的溶解氧含量。
    Abstract-The long-term dynamics of the taxonomic composition of zooplankton in the lower reaches of the Northern Dvina River and the effect of some hydrochemical factors on its abundance have been studied. It is found that the species list of the zooplankton has included 141 species over 50 years: it consisted of a total of 98 taxa in 1965 and 104 taxa in 2012-2019. The results of analyzing the spatiotemporal abundance distribution of the zooplankton and its taxonomic groups are presented. A significant increase in abundance (on account of copepods) and changes in the taxonomic structure of zooplankton have been revealed in the lower parts of the study water area. In 2019, changes in the structure-forming complex of zooplankton were noted for the first time over the study period. It is found that species diversity reaches high values in waters classified as \"heavily polluted\" and \"dirty,\" which is evidence for a complex structure of zooplankton communities. The main factor influencing the horizontal distribution of the zooplankton abundance is the dissolved oxygen content of water.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Biological invasions are a leading cause of global change, yet their long-term effects remain hard to predict. Invasive species can remain abundant for long periods of time, or exhibit population crashes that allow native communities to recover. The abundance and impact of nonnative species may also be closely tied to temporally variable habitat characteristics. We investigated the long-term effects of habitat fragmentation and invasion by the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) by resurveying ants in 40 scrub habitat fragments in coastal southern California that were originally sampled 21 yr ago. At a landscape scale, fragment area, but not fragment age or Argentine ant mean abundance, continued to explain variation in native ant species richness; the species-area relationship between the two sample years did not differ in terms of slope or intercept. At local scales, over the last 21 yr we detected increases in the overall area invaded (+36.7%, estimated as the proportion of occupied traps) and the relative abundance of the Argentine ant (+121.95%, estimated as mean number of workers in pitfall traps). Argentine ant mean abundance also increased inward from urban edges in 2017 compared to 1996. The greater level of penetration into fragments likely reduced native ant richness by eliminating refugia for native ants in fragments that did not contain sufficient interior area. At one fragment where we sampled eight times over the last 21 yr, Argentine ant mean abundance increased over time while the diversity of native ground-foraging ants declined from 14 to 4 species. Notably, native species predicted to be particularly sensitive to the combined effect of invasion and habitat loss were not detected at any sites in our recent sampling, including the army ant genus Neivamyrmex. Conversely, two introduced ant species (Brachymyrmex patagonicus and Pheidole flavens) that were undetected in 1996 are now common and widespread at our sites. Our results indicate that behaviorally and numerically dominant invasive species can maintain high densities and suppress native diversity for extended periods.
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