Lockdowns

封锁
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    最近的COVID-19大流行期间的人类原因为研究人类活动对海鸟的影响提供了独特的机会。秘鲁的封锁阻止了人们访问沿海地区,从而减少海滩上的垃圾处理和微塑料进入海洋的流动。这种活动的停止可能导致沿海地区塑料污染的暂时减少。我们的目的是在沿着普拉亚斯哥斯达黎加佛得角赛道(CPCV)的近岸喂养的新性coo(Nannoppterumbrasililianus)中调查这种现象,位于利马的沿海地带,秘鲁(约1100万人)。
    我们在大流行封锁之前(超过11个月)和期间(超过8个月)收集并分析了CPCV上的新鲜颗粒。
    我们的发现表明,与大流行前的情况(%Oc=7.13,n=800粒)相比,大流行期间颗粒中塑料的发生率显著降低(%Oc=2.47,n=647粒)。在颗粒中发现的最常见的塑料碎片是线状微塑料。此外,我们的研究强调了人类在海滩上的存在与cor颗粒中发现的微塑料(主要是线状)数量之间的直接相关性。我们建议将这些材料重新引入海洋,以前积累在海岸上,可能是由海滩游客向海洋的运动和活动促进的。
    UNASSIGNED: The anthropause during the recent COVID-19 pandemic provided a unique opportunity to examine the impact of human activity on seabirds. Lockdowns in Peru prevented people from visiting coastal areas, thereby reducing garbage disposal on beaches and the movement of microplastics into the ocean. This cessation of activities likely led to a temporary decrease in plastic pollution in coastal regions. We aimed to investigate this phenomenon in inshore-feeding neotropic cormorants (Nannopterum brasilianus) along the Circuito de Playas Costa Verde (CPCV), situated on the coastal strip of Lima, Peru (∼ 11 million people).
    UNASSIGNED: We collected and analyzed fresh pellets along the CPCV before (over 11 months) and during the pandemic lockdowns (over 8 months).
    UNASSIGNED: Our findings revealed a significant reduction in the occurrence of plastic in pellets during the pandemic period (% Oc = 2.47, n = 647 pellets) compared to pre-pandemic conditions (% Oc = 7.13, n = 800 pellets). The most common plastic debris item found in the pellets was threadlike microplastic. Additionally, our study highlights the direct correlation between human presence on beaches and the quantity of microplastics (mainly threadlike) found in cormorant pellets. We suggest that the reintroduction of these materials into the sea, previously accumulated on the coast, is likely facilitated by the movement and activity of beachgoers toward the ocean.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:COVID-19大流行对全球心理健康产生了负面影响,青少年经历不成比例的影响。有限的研究探索了不同的大流行限制对青少年心理健康的影响,只有少数研究检查了大流行对青少年心理健康的长期影响。这些调查对于告知公共卫生政策至关重要,特别是精神卫生保健在未来突发公共卫生事件中的整合。
    方法:本研究旨在调查禁闭持续时间的影响以及青少年对大流行的主观体验对其健康的影响,内化症状,和外化症状。澳大利亚青少年(N=1,001,平均年龄=14.2岁)在2021年完成了一项基线调查,在大流行封锁解除后不久(时间1)。以及大约12个月后(时间2)的跟踪调查。感兴趣的预测因素是2020-2021年COVID-19封锁的总持续时间,以及青少年对大流行对他们社会关系的主观体验,学习,技术使用和家庭关系。分析中包括一系列协变量以检查亚组差异。
    结果:线性混合效应模型表明,锁定的总持续时间与时间1或时间2的任何结果都不相关(所有ps>0.017)。在时间1(t=5.17,df=980,p<.001)和时间2(t=2.72,df=708,p=.007)时,大流行学习的负面主观体验与更大的外化症状相关。关于社会联系的大流行的负面主观体验仅在时间2与更大的内化症状相关(t=3.20,df=709,p=.001)。关于家庭关系或技术使用的大流行的负面主观经验与时间1或时间2的任何结果无关(所有ps>0.017)。
    结论:解除封锁后,青少年对大流行在学习和社会关系方面的负面主观体验与更大的内在化和外在化症状相关。封锁的持续时间与任何主要结局无关。在未来突发公共卫生事件中,心理健康干预措施应量身定做,以帮助青少年适应新的学习环境,建立和维持社会关系。
    BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted global mental health, with adolescents experiencing disproportionate effects. Limited research has explored the impact of different pandemic restrictions on adolescent mental health, and only a few studies have examined the longer-term impacts of the pandemic on adolescent mental health. These investigations are crucial for informing public health policies, particularly the integration of mental health care in future public health emergencies.
    METHODS: This study aimed to investigate the impact of lockdown duration and the impact of adolescents\' subjective experiences of the pandemic on their wellbeing, internalising symptoms, and externalising symptoms. Australian adolescents (N = 1,001, mean age = 14.2 years) completed a baseline survey in 2021, shortly after pandemic lockdowns were lifted (Time 1), and a follow-up survey approximately 12 months later (Time 2). Predictors of interest were the total duration of COVID-19 lockdowns across 2020-2021, and adolescents\' subjective experiences of the pandemic on their social connections, learning, technology use and family relationships. A range of covariates were included in analyses to examine subgroup differences.
    RESULTS: Linear mixed-effects models indicated that total duration of the lockdown was not associated with any of the outcomes at Time 1 or Time 2 (all ps > 0.017). Negative subjective experience of the pandemic on learning was associated with greater externalising symptoms at both Time 1 (t = 5.17, df = 980, p <.001) and Time 2 (t = 2.72, df = 708, p =.007). Negative subjective experience of the pandemic on social connection was associated with greater internalising symptoms at Time 2 only (t = 3.20, df = 709, p =.001). Negative subjective experience of the pandemic on family relationships or technology use was not associated with any of the outcomes at Time 1 or Time 2 (all ps > 0.017).
    CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents\' negative subjective experience of the pandemic on learning and social connections was associated with greater internalising and externalising symptoms after the lockdown had been lifted. Duration of lockdowns was not associated with any of the primary outcomes. During future public health emergencies, mental health interventions should be tailored to assist adolescents to adapt to new learning environments, and to build and maintain social connections.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    世界各地的LGBTQ社区进入了COVID-19大流行,精神健康状况不佳的比率普遍很高,并面临着包括污名在内的其他挑战,歧视,和护理障碍。这项研究样本来自对大流行期间居住在澳大利亚的3135名LGBTQ成年人的调查。回归分析用于探索自大流行爆发以来心理困扰和心理健康感知变化的个体差异,以及封锁的影响。通过利用自然实验,将经历过更广泛封锁的州(维多利亚州和新南威尔士州)与澳大利亚其他地区进行比较。心理健康的负担因性别而异,性取向,年龄,和居住面积。虽然没有观察到封锁对心理困扰的影响,生活在维多利亚州(β=-0.15;95%CI=-0.23,-0.07)和新南威尔士州(β=-0.13;95%CI=-0.21,-0.05)的参与者自我报告,与全国其他地区相比,大流行对其心理健康的负面影响更大.研究结果表明,COVID-19大流行对LGBTQ人群的心理健康产生了负面影响,特别是那些经历过广泛封锁的人,并强调需要加大力度,以便在危机时期获得心理健康支持。
    LGBTQ communities around the world entered the COVID-19 pandemic with generally high rates of poor mental health and faced additional challenges including stigma, discrimination, and barriers to care. This study sample was drawn from a survey of 3135 LGBTQ adults residing in Australia during the pandemic. Regression analysis was used to explore individual differences in psychological distress and perceived change in mental wellbeing since the onset of the pandemic as well as the impact of lockdowns, by taking advantage of a natural experiment comparing the states that experienced more extensive lockdowns (Victoria and New South Wales) to the rest of Australia. The burden of mental health was found to vary across gender, sexual orientation, age, and area of residence. While no impact of lockdowns on psychological distress was observed, participants living in the states of Victoria (β = -0.15; 95% CI = -0.23, -0.07) and New South Wales (β = -0.13; 95% CI = -0.21, -0.05) self-reported a more negative impact of the pandemic on their mental wellbeing compared to the rest of the country. The findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the mental wellbeing of LGBTQ populations, particularly among those who experienced extensive lockdowns and highlight the need for increased efforts to enable access to mental health supports during times of crisis.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在新冠肺炎的背景下,关于限制对健康和经济的损害的封锁政策一直存在激烈的辩论。我们提出了一种人工智能驱动的方法,用于生成控制疾病传播的最佳封锁政策,同时平衡健康和经济成本。此外,所提出的强化学习方法会自动学习这些策略,作为疾病和人口参数的函数。这种方法导致了不完美的封锁,可用于使用可调参数探索一系列策略,并且可以轻松扩展到细粒度的锁定严格性。控制方法可以与任何兼容的疾病和网络仿真模型一起使用。
    There has been intense debate about lockdown policies in the context of Covid-19 for limiting damage both to health and to the economy. We present an AI-driven approach for generating optimal lockdown policies that control the spread of the disease while balancing both health and economic costs. Furthermore, the proposed reinforcement learning approach automatically learns those policies, as a function of disease and population parameters. The approach accounts for imperfect lockdowns, can be used to explore a range of policies using tunable parameters, and can be easily extended to fine-grained lockdown strictness. The control approach can be used with any compatible disease and network simulation models.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    世界试图通过各种缓解策略在国家和地区层面控制2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的传播。在第一波感染中,最极端的策略包括大规模的国家和地区封锁或留在家里的命令。大规模封锁的一个主要副作用是经济的关闭,导致大规模裁员,收入损失,和生计。科学模型(计算机预测和模拟)部分证明了封锁的合理性,这些模型假设感染呈指数增长,并预测了数百万人的死亡,而没有这些“非药物干预”(NPI)。一些科学家质疑这些假设。遵循其他较软的缓解策略的地区,如在家工作,人群限制,使用口罩,个人隔离,基本的社会距离,测试,和追踪-至少在第一波感染中-看到了类似的健康结果。清晰的结果令人困惑,复杂,难以评估。最终,在美国,实施什么样的缓解战略成为一个政治决定,只是部分基于科学模型。我们没有测试适当管理第一波大流行所需的NPI水平。相反,我们使用反封锁倡导者和诺贝尔奖获得者Levitts博士建议的“逆拟合Gompertz函数”方法来估计COVID-19感染的增长/下降速度,以及确定何时发生疾病高峰。我们的估计可能有助于预测未来第一波感染的水平,并帮助一个地区在开放经济之前监测新的疫情。逆拟合函数适用于2020年3月至6月期间美国以及受灾严重的纽约和新泽西地区的第一波感染。这是美国流行最早的日子。计算增长/下降率的估计值,并用于预测潜在的未来感染,这样决策者就可以在开放经济时监控疾病威胁。简要讨论了这种初步和探索性的分析和发现,并主要以图表和表格的形式呈现。但是以下疾病扩散的浪潮不包括在内,当然也没有预料到。
    The world tried to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at national and regional levels through various mitigation strategies. In the first wave of infections, the most extreme strategies included large-scale national and regional lockdowns or stay-at-home orders. One major side effect of large-scale lockdowns was the shuttering of the economy, leading to massive layoffs, loss of income, and livelihood. Lockdowns were justified in part by scientific models (computer forecast and simulations) that assumed exponential growth in infections and predicted millions of fatalities without these \'non-pharmaceutical interventions\' (NPI). Some scientists questioned these assumptions. Regions that followed other softer mitigation strategies such as work from home, crowd limits, use of masks, individual quarantining, basic social distancing, testing, and tracing - at least in the first wave of infections - saw similar health outcomes. Clear results were confusing, complicated, and difficult to assess. Ultimately, in the USA, what kind of mitigation strategy was enforced became a political decision only partly based on scientific models. We do not test for what levels of NPI are necessary for appropriate management of the first wave of the pandemic. Rather we use the \'inverse-fitting Gompertz function\' methodology suggested by anti-lockdown advocate and Nobel Laureate Dr. Levitts to estimate the rate of growth/decline in COVID-19 infections as well to determine when disease peaking occurred. Our estimates may help predict levels of first-wave infections in the future and help a region to monitor new outbreaks prior to opening its economy. The inverse fitting function is applied to the first wave of infections in the USA and in the hard-hit New York and New Jersey regions for the time period March to June 2020. This is the earliest days of pandemic in the USA. The estimates for the rates of growth/decline are computed and used to predict underlying future infections, so that decision makers can monitor the disease threat as they open their economies. This preliminary and exploratory analysis and findings are discussed briefly and presented primarily in charts and tables, but the following waves of disease diffusion are not included and certainly were not anticipated.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于缺乏控制COVID-19传播的联邦政策,各州州长下令封锁和掩盖命令,在不同的时间,产生大规模的自然实验。作者利用这个自然实验来解决四个问题:(1)封锁有效减少感染吗?(2)消费者的成本是多少?(3)封锁是否增加(信号效应)或减少(替代效应)消费者的口罩采用?(4)管理者的决定是否取决于医学科学或非医学驱动因素?通过差异差异和通用合成控制方法进行的分析表明,封锁可以减少感染。尽管封锁使每百万消费者每天的感染人数减少了480人(相当于减少了56%),他们将客户满意度降低了2.2%,消费支出增长7.5%,到观察期结束时,每个州的平均失业率大幅上升了2%。一项反事实分析表明,2020年3月15日全国范围内的封锁将使案件总数减少60%。而如果没有任何州的封锁,到4月30日,案件将增加五倍。减少一次新感染病例的平均成本约为国内生产总值较低的28,000美元。
    Lacking a federal policy to control the spread of COVID-19, state governors ordered lockdowns and mask mandates, at different times, generating a massive natural experiment. The authors exploit this natural experiment to address four issues: (1) Were lockdowns effective in reducing infections? (2) What were the costs to consumers? (3) Did lockdowns increase (signaling effect) or reduce (substitution effect) consumers\' mask adoption? (4) Did governors\' decisions depend on medical science or nonmedical drivers? Analyses via difference-in-differences and generalized synthetic control methods indicate that lockdowns causally reduced infections. Although lockdowns reduced infections by 480 per million consumers per day (equivalent to a reduction of 56%), they reduced customer satisfaction by 2.2%, consumer spending by 7.5%, and gross domestic product by 5.4% and significantly increased unemployment by 2% per average state by the end of the observation period. A counterfactual analysis shows that a nationwide lockdown on March 15, 2020, would have reduced total cases by 60%, whereas the absence of any state lockdowns would have resulted in five times more cases by April 30. The average cost of reducing the number of cases by one new infection was about $28,000 in lower gross domestic product.
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  • 文章类型: Historical Article
    我们进行了一项比较历史研究,以询问彼得·多尔蒂教授在2020年4月对澳大利亚人的警告,即“COVID-19与西班牙流感一样致命”。我们确定了这两种流行病的震中,即,1919年的悉尼大都会和2020年的墨尔本大都会,并比较了西班牙流感和COVID-19在这两个城市的致死率。死亡率是通过住院人数和住院率来衡量的,死亡率,年龄特异性死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)。使用这些措施,我们展示了截然不同的感染波,它们在不同时间点的严重程度以及我们研究期结束时病毒的累积影响,即,1919年和2020年9月30日。1919年西班牙流感的住院人数和死亡人数是2020年COVID-19的30多倍。西班牙流感每10万人口的ASMR为383,而COVID-19为7:前者比后者高约55倍。这些结果表明,西班牙流感比COVID-19更致命。Doherty教授的警告可能被认真对待,这在一定程度上解释了这项研究的发现。1919年和2020年的感染给非药物干预措施(NPI)带来了负担,如“保护性隔离”(检疫),接触追踪,封锁和面具。持续而详细的接触者追踪计划很可能为为什么2020年的NPI比1919年更有效提供了最好的解释,因此有助于COVID-19大流行第一年的致死率降低。
    We conducted a comparative historical study to interrogate Professor Peter Doherty\'s warning to Australians in April 2020 that \'COVID-19 is just as lethal as the Spanish flu\'. We identified the epicentres of both pandemics, namely, metropolitan Sydney in 1919 and metropolitan Melbourne in 2020 and compared the lethality of the Spanish Flu and COVID-19 in these two cities. Lethality was measured by the number and rate of hospital admissions, death rates, age-specific death rates and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs). Using these measures, we demonstrated the strikingly different waves of infection, their severity at various points in time and the cumulative impact of the viruses by the end of our study period, i.e., 30 September in 1919 and 2020. Hospital admissions and deaths from the Spanish Flu in 1919 were more than 30 times higher than those for COVID-19 in 2020. The ASMR per 100,000 population for the Spanish Flu was 383 compared to 7 for COVID-19: The former was about 55 times higher than the latter. These results suggest that the Spanish Flu was more lethal than COVID-19. Professor Doherty\'s warning was perhaps taken seriously and that partly explains the findings of this study. Containing infection in 1919 and 2020 threw the burden on nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as \'protective sequestration\' (quarantine), contact tracing, lockdowns and masks. It is likely that the persistent and detailed contact tracing scheme provides the best possible explanation for why NPIs in 2020 were more effective than in 1919 and therefore contributed to the lower lethality of the COVID-19 pandemic in its first year.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    调查COVID-19干预措施导致的精神健康障碍的流行病学,小学关闭,在大流行后阶段,儿童和青少年的社会隔离需要优先于成年人。大流行期间进行的大多数初步心理社会研究表明,较年轻的年龄组最容易受到这种影响。因此,本研究旨在评估儿童特定焦虑症的可能患病率,并量化其与相关人口危险因素的关系.
    我们使用了一项横断面研究,包括430名8至18岁的儿童,他们在学校关闭以及全部和部分封锁期间居住在科威特。调查包括有关参与者特征的问题,使用儿童焦虑相关情绪障碍量表(SCARED)量表筛查儿童焦虑,使用优势和困难问卷(SDQ)和儿童的情绪和行为。使用单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析来总结参与者的人口统计学和特征及其与一般人群的关系。社会,和普遍的焦虑,以及行为和情绪上的困难。
    我们推断24.83%的参与者至少有一种焦虑症,而20.19%的人在SDQ量表上被归类为异常。我们的多变量分析显示,儿童的禁闭时间和性别始终是所选精神障碍广谱的重要预测因素(p值<0.05)。此外,我们推断与禁闭持续时间增加相关的精神障碍的可能性显著增加.
    我们的研究结果揭示了年轻人群在大流行紧急情况下对严格公共卫生措施的间接负面影响的脆弱性的初步见解。因此,当局在规划和实施未来大流行的类似干预措施时,应考虑这些影响。
    UNASSIGNED: Investigating the epidemiology of mental health disorders resulting from COVID-19 intervention measures, primary school closures, and social isolation in children and adolescents needs to be prioritized over adults at the post-pandemic stage. Most preliminary psychosocial studies conducted during the pandemic have demonstrated that younger age groups are the most vulnerable to such implications. Thus, this study aims to estimate the probable prevalence of specific anxiety disorders in children and quantify their relationships with relevant demographic risk factors.
    UNASSIGNED: We used a cross-sectional study comprising 430 children aged between 8- and 18 years old living in Kuwait during the period of school closures as well as full and partial lockdowns. The survey included questions about participants\' characteristics, children\'s anxiety using the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders Questionnaire (SCARED) scale, and children\'s emotions and behaviours using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to summarize the demographic and characteristics of the participants and their association with general, social, and generalized anxieties, as well as behavioural and emotional difficulties.
    UNASSIGNED: We inferred that 24.83% of our participants had at least one anxiety disorder, while 20.19% were classified as abnormal on the SDQ scale. Our multivariate analysis revealed that lockdown duration and sex of the child were consistently significant predictors (p-values < 0.05) of the broad spectrum of selected mental disorders. Additionally, we inferred notable increases in the likelihood of mental disorders associated with the increased duration of lockdowns.
    UNASSIGNED: Our findings revealed preliminary insights into the vulnerability of young populations to the indirect negative impacts of strict public health measures during pandemic emergencies. Thus, authorities should consider such implications when planning and implementing similar interventions in future pandemics.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:肠套叠是婴儿急性肠梗阻的主要原因。大多数2岁以下的病例被归类为特发性,病毒感染是原因之一。COVID-19公共卫生措施导致传染病患病率显著下降。在这些时期,据报道,肠套叠频率减少-减少量大于我们先前对其感染性病因的理解所预期的减少量.
    方法:我们进行了回顾性研究,多状态,为期十二年的生态研究。ICD-10-AMK56.1“Intusresseption”编码入院的每月病例数是从新南威尔士州(NSW)的全州入院数据集中获得的,维多利亚和昆士兰,占澳大利亚合格人口的77.62%。将不同管辖范围内的这些计数与非锁定期进行比较,以研究肠套叠频率与锁定期之间的相关性。
    结果:我们发现,在两个符合条件的州,肠套叠频率和锁定期之间呈负相关。在2岁以下年龄组中,降幅最大,维多利亚州的降幅为62.7%(比率(RR)=0.37,p<0.0001),新南威尔士州的降幅为40.1%(RR=0.599,p=0.006)。对区域和大都市地区之间封锁限制变化的控制也显示出预期的下降。
    结论:我们的生态学研究表明,在COVID-19封锁期间,儿科肠套叠入院的频率显着降低。意外的减少幅度表明,传染病引起的特发性肠套叠的真实比例被大大低估了。
    BACKGROUND: Intussusception is the primary cause of acute bowel obstruction in infants. The majority of cases <2 years of age are classed as idiopathic, with viral infection implicated as one of the causes. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health measures led to significant decreases in communicable disease prevalence. During these times, reductions in intussusception frequency were greater than would be expected with our previous understanding of its infectious etiology.
    METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, multistate, ecological study over a 12-year period. Monthly case numbers of \"intussusception\"-coded admissions (code K56.1; International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, Australian Modification) were acquired from state-wide admissions data sets from New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, representing 77.62% of the eligible Australian population. These counts within differing jurisdictional lockdowns were compared with non-lockdown periods in order to investigate a correlation between intussusception frequency and lockdown periods.
    RESULTS: We found a negative association between intussusception frequency and lockdown periods in both eligible states. The largest reductions were seen in the <2-year age groups, with Victoria experiencing a 62.7% reduction (rate ratio, 0.37; P < .001) and New South Wales a 40.1% reduction (0.599; P = .006) during lockdown times. Controls for variations in lockdown restrictions between both regional and metropolitan areas also showed expected decreases.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our ecological study demonstrates significant decreases in the frequency of pediatric intussusception admissions during the COVID-19 lockdown periods. The unexpected magnitude of the reductions suggests that the true proportion of infectious disease-caused idiopathic intussusception is greatly underestimated.
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