Landslides

滑坡
  • 文章类型: News
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    地震引发的滑坡表现出三个重要特征:它们通常是山区地震中遭受的破坏的相当大一部分,它们在空间上是非随机分布的,它们在地震后的几年里继续进化。尽管如此,未来地震的规划很少考虑滑坡或随时间的演变。在这里,我们结合了2014年至2020年之间在尼泊尔受2015年Mw7.8Gorkha地震影响的地区绘制的滑坡的独特时间序列,以及与建筑物位置重叠的数值滑坡跳动模型,以检查不断变化的滑坡灾害和暴露的分布如何相交以对建筑物产生动态威胁。地震后,滑坡跳动的威胁以可预测的方式发生变化,在中低坡位置变得更加明显,并在景观中保留多年。以我们绘制的山体滑坡的位置为起点,我们可以先验地确定78%的建筑物随后受到滑坡碎片影响的位置。我们表明,滑坡暴露和危害从微不足道到很高,相对而言,我们的发现对指导重建和采取措施降低未来地震风险具有重要意义。
    Earthquake-triggered landslides show three important characteristics: they are often responsible for a considerable proportion of the damage sustained during mountain region earthquakes, they are non-randomly distributed across space, and they continue to evolve in the years after the earthquake. Despite this, planning for future earthquakes rarely takes into consideration either landslides or their evolution with time. Here we couple a unique timeseries of mapped landslides between 2014-2020 across the area of Nepal impacted by the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and a numerical landslide runout model overlain with building locations to examine how the distributions of both evolving landslide hazard and exposure intersect to generate a dynamic threat to buildings. The threat from landslide runout is shown to change in predictable ways after the earthquake, becoming more pronounced at mid- and lower-hillslope positions and remaining in the landscape for multiple years. Using the positions of our mapped landslides as a starting point, we can identify a priori the locations of 78% of buildings that were subsequently impacted by landslide debris. We show that landslide exposure and hazard vary from negligible to high, in relative terms, over lateral distances of as little as 10s of m. Our findings hold important implications for guiding reconstruction and for taking steps to reduce the risks from future earthquakes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    极端降雨事件是滑坡的主要诱因之一。随着气候变化继续重塑全球天气模式,这些事件的频率和强度都在增加,扩大滑坡事件和对社区的相关威胁。在这一贡献中,我们使用“玻璃箱”机器学习模型分析了滑坡发生与极端降雨事件之间的关系,即可解释的增压机。将这些模型设置为“玻璃盒”技术的原因是它们的确切清晰度,为他们的预测提供透明的解释。我们利用这些能力以空间概率的形式对极端降雨事件引起的滑坡发生进行建模(即,易感性)。在这样做的时候,我们使用2022年9月15日在米萨河流域(意大利中部)的强降雨事件。值得注意的是,我们在一组预测因子中引入降雨异常,以表达与过去降雨模式相比的事件强度。通过随机和空间例程进行的空间变量选择和模型评估已纳入我们的协议。我们的发现强调了降雨异常作为建模滑坡敏感性中最重要的变量的关键作用。此外,我们利用这种变量的动态特性来估计不同降雨情景下的滑坡发生。
    Extreme rainfall events represent one of the main triggers of landslides. As climate change continues to reshape global weather patterns, the frequency and intensity of such events are increasing, amplifying landslide occurrences and associated threats to communities. In this contribution, we analyze relationships between landslide occurrence and extreme rainfall events by using a \"glass-box\" machine learning model, namely Explainable Boosting Machine. What sets these models as a \"glass-box\" technique is their exact intelligibility, offering transparent explanations for their predictions. We leverage these capabilities to model the landslide occurrence induced by an extreme rainfall event in the form of spatial probability (i.e., susceptibility). In doing so, we use the heavy rainfall event in the Misa River Basin (Central Italy) on September 15, 2022. Notably, we introduce a rainfall anomaly among our set of predictors to express the intensity of the event compared to past rainfall patterns. Spatial variable selection and model evaluation through random and spatial routines are incorporated into our protocol. Our findings highlight the critical role of the rainfall anomaly as the most important variable in modeling landslide susceptibility. Furthermore, we leverage the dynamic nature of such a variable to estimate landslide occurrence under different rainfall scenarios.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    机器学习模型在滑坡敏感性评估中通常被视为黑箱,缺乏对输入特征如何预测结果的分析。这使得很难理解滑坡背后的机制和关键因素。为了增强机器学习模型在广域滑坡敏感性评估中的可解释性,本研究采用Shapely方法探索特征因子从局部、全球,和空间视角。使用随机森林(RF)进行滑坡敏感性评估,支持向量机(SVM),和极限梯度提升(XGBoost)模型,重点是地质复杂的川藏地区。最初,该研究从局部角度揭示了特定关键特征因素对滑坡的贡献。然后研究了特征因子之间相互作用对滑坡发生的总体影响。最后,揭示了各种特征因素对滑坡发生的贡献的空间分布规律。分析表明:(1)XGBoost模型在滑坡敏感性评估中表现突出,实现精度,精度,召回,F1分数,和AUC值分别为0.7815、0.7858、0.7962、0.7910和0.86;(2)Shapely方法确定了四川-西藏地区滑坡的主导因素为海拔(3000-4000m),PGA(1-2g),NDVI(<0.5),和与河流的距离(<3公里);(3)使用Shapely方法,这项研究解释了这些贡献,相互作用机制,滑坡易发性特征因子在局部的空间分布格局,全球,和空间视角。这些发现为深入探索和科学预测滑坡风险提供了新的途径和方法。
    Machine learning models are often viewed as black boxes in landslide susceptibility assessment, lacking an analysis of how input features predict outcomes. This makes it challenging to understand the mechanisms and key factors behind landslides. To enhance the interpretability of machine learning models in wide-area landslide susceptibility assessments, this study uses the Shapely method to explore the contributions of feature factors from local, global, and spatial perspectives. Landslide susceptibility assessments were conducted using random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models, focusing on the geologically complex Sichuan-Tibet region. Initially, the study revealed the contributions of specific key feature factors to landslides from a local perspective. It then examines the overall impact of interactions among feature factors on landslide occurrence globally. Finally, it unveils the spatial distribution patterns of the contributions of various feature factors to landslide occurrence. The analysis indicates the following: (1) The XGBoost model excels in landslide susceptibility assessment, achieving accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC values of 0.7815, 0.7858, 0.7962, 0.7910, and 0.86, respectively; (2) The Shapely method identifies the leading factors for landslides in the Sichuan-Tibet region as Elevation (3000-4000 m), PGA (1-2 g), NDVI (<0.5), and distance to rivers (<3 km); (3) Using the Shapely method, the study explains the contributions, interaction mechanisms, and spatial distribution patterns of landslide susceptibility feature factors across local, global, and spatial perspectives. These findings offer new avenues and methods for the in-depth exploration and scientific prediction of landslide risks.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    生态安全格局可以协调自然环境保护与社会经济发展之间的关系。本研究通过理论与实践相结合,结合滑坡敏感性和景观结构,提出了区域生态安全格局优化框架。以延安市为例,本研究优化了初步生态源的景观布局。利用信息值模型生成滑坡敏感性指数,然后用于调整生态阻力面。最小累积阻力(MCR)方法用于提取生态走廊,利用电路理论定位生态节点,并勾勒出重要的生态控制区。结果表明:(1)生态源主要由林地组成,总面积为2,352.2400平方公里,集中在西南部,中央,和东南地区。源斑块的最佳景观粒度为600m。(2)延安分为四个滑坡敏感性等级区:极高,高,中等,低,该地区整体滑坡敏感性较高。(3)在建成区中观察到最高的生态抗性,在林地中观察到最低的生态抗性。生态廊道总数为26个,避开了大部分滑坡的高度敏感区。(4)生态夹点的数量为61个,生态屏障的数量为54个。关键生态控制区主要由农田组成,林地,和草原,并针对其独特的特点,提出了差异化的修复策略。研究结果可为地质灾害易发区生态安全保护实践提供科学指导。
    The ecological security pattern can harmonize the relationship between natural environmental protection and socio-economic development. This study proposes a regional ecological security pattern optimization framework by integrating theory and practice with landslide sensitivity and landscape structure. Using Yan\'an City as an example, this study optimizes the landscape layout of preliminary ecological sources. The landslide sensitivity index is generated using the information value model and then used to adjust the ecological resistance surface. The Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) approach is used to extract ecological corridors, locate ecological nodes utilizing circuit theory, and outline crucial ecological control areas. The results demonstrate: (1) the ecological sources are primarily composed of forestlands, with a total area of 2,352.2400 km2, concentrated in the southwest, central, and southeast regions. The optimal landscape granularity for the source patches is 600 m. (2) Yan\'an is divided into four landslide sensitivity level zones: extremely high, high, medium, and low, with the overall landslide sensitivity of the region being high. (3) The highest ecological resistance is observed in built-up land and the lowest in forestland. The total number of ecological corridors is 26, avoiding most of the highly sensitive areas of landslides. (4) The number of ecological pinch points is 61, while the ecological barrier points amounted to 54. The critical ecological control areas consist mainly of cropland, forestland, and grassland, and differentiated restoration strategies are proposed to address their unique characteristics. The findings of the research can offer scientific guidance for the practice of ecological security protection in geohazard-prone areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在本文中,室内模型试验采用图像分析,孔隙压力,和位移测量方法,以研究降雨和人工开挖影响下各种成分的黄土弃土坡的破坏演化过程和模式。实验结果表明,在降雨的作用下,纯黄土弃土坡有两种裂缝破坏模式。一个涉及通过主要通道形成一条大沟,而另一种特点是在裂缝之间逐步退舍土壤损伤。失败表现出三个不同的阶段,失败之后,倾斜角度较大(>45°)。降雨引起的破坏影响包含25%粗粒含量的黄土弃土的过程类似地分为三个阶段,最终导致区域滑坡的形成。与纯黄土弃土相比,这种滑坡通常包含更广泛的破坏范围,尽管损伤深度较浅。滑坡停止并稳定后,创建一个微小的斜坡(45°)(<45°)。坡脚处的开挖以渐进的多阶段后退方式引起黄土弃土破坏。该研究为黄土地区变质土地的防灾预警提供了参考和依据。
    In this paper, indoor model tests were conducted using image analysis, pore pressure, and displacement measurement methods to investigate the failure evolution process and modes of loess spoil slopes with various components under the influence of rainfall and artificial excavation. The results of the experiments reveal that, under the action of rainfall, there are two types of cracks-to-failure modes for pure loess spoil slopes. One involves the formation of a large gully through the dominant channel, while the other is characterized by step-by-step retreating soil damage between cracks. The failure exhibits three distinct stages, and after failure, the slope angle is relatively large (>45°). The process of rainfall-induced destruction affecting loess spoil containing 25% coarse-grained content similarly unfolds in three stages, ultimately resulting in the formation of a regional landslide. This landslide typically encompasses a broader damage range compared to pure loess spoil, albeit with a shallower depth of damage. After the landslide stops and stabilizes, a tiny slope (45°) is created (<45°). The excavation at the toe of the slope induces loess spoil damage in a progressive multi-stage receding manner. This study provides a reference and basis for disaster prevention and warning of spoiled ground in loess areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    2019年6月,布杜达区的山体滑坡和洪水,乌干达东部,夺去生命并导致霍乱爆发。受影响的社区无法获得清洁水和卫生设施。
    分享控制布杜达区霍乱疫情的经验,在山体滑坡和洪水之后。
    进行了描述性横断面研究,其中爆发调查报告,每周审查流行病学数据和灾害应对报告。
    2019年6月4日至5日,强降雨导致4次山体滑坡,造成6人死亡,27人受伤,洪水和480人流离失所。两周后,Bududa地区确诊了霍乱疫情。卫生部(MoH)迅速从当地保护区部署了口服霍乱疫苗(OCV),并在22个受影响的教区对93%的目标人群进行了大规模接种。疫情在10周内得到控制,报告了67例霍乱病例和1例死亡。然而,WaSH条件仍然很差,只有,24.2%(879/3,628)有可清洗厕所的家庭,26.8%(1,023/3,818)的洗手设施使用肥皂,33.6%(1617/4807)的洗手设施使用不安全的水。
    卫生部的OCV储备帮助乌干达迅速控制了Bududa地区的霍乱。高风险国家应保留OCV储备以应对紧急情况。
    UNASSIGNED: In June 2019, landslides and floods in Bududa district, eastern Uganda, claimed lives and led to a cholera outbreak. The affected communities had inadequate access to clean water and sanitation.
    UNASSIGNED: To share the experience of controlling a cholera outbreak in Bududa district, after landslides and floods.
    UNASSIGNED: A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out in which outbreak investigation reports, weekly epidemiological data and disaster response reports were reviewed.
    UNASSIGNED: On 4 - 5th June 2019, heavy rainfall resulted in four landslides which caused six fatalities, 27 injuries, floods and displaced 480 persons. Two weeks later, a cholera outbreak was confirmed in Bududa district. The Ministry of Health (MoH) rapidly deployed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) from local reserves and mass vaccinated 93% of the target population in 22 affected parishes. The outbreak was controlled in 10 weeks with 67 cholera cases and 1 death reported. However, WaSH conditions remained poor, with only, 24.2 % (879/3,628) of the households with washable latrines, 26.8% (1,023/3,818) had hand-washing facilities with soap and 33.6% (1617/4807) used unsafe water.
    UNASSIGNED: The OCV stockpile by the MoH helped Uganda to control cholera promptly in Bududa district. High-risk countries should keep OCV reserves for emergencies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    滑坡灾害的预测和预防是一个具有挑战性的主题,涉及对以下几个要素的评估和定量评估:地质和地貌环境,降雨,和地面运动。本文介绍了尼维萨诺滑坡的多途径调查(阿斯蒂省,皮埃蒙特,西北意大利)。它显示了一个连续而缓慢的运动,除了少数突发性事件,最后记录在2016年。地质和地貌模型是通过实地调查定义的。对2000-2016年期间的滑坡运动和降雨记录进行了清查,分别,通过档案调查和“每日降雨量移动总和”方法的应用,允许定义滑坡活化的降雨阈值(105毫米和193毫米,分别,在事件发生前3天和30天)。通过创新的连续监测倾角测量系统和地球观测(EO)数据(即,依靠干涉合成孔径雷达,或InSAR数据):它提供了验证先前定义的降雨阈值的机会。这项研究旨在为公共当局提供信息,以便对网站进行适当的管理。此外,建议的工作流程可以作为调查类似情况的指南。
    The prediction and prevention of landslide hazard is a challenging topic involving the assessment and quantitative evaluation of several elements: geological and geomorphological setting, rainfalls, and ground motion. This paper presents the multi-approach investigation of the Nevissano landslide (Asti Province, Piedmont, NW Italy). It shows a continuous and slow movement, alongside few paroxysmal events, the last recorded in 2016. The geological and geomorphological models were defined through a field survey. An inventory of the landslide\'s movements and rainfall records in the period 2000-2016 was performed, respectively, through archive investigations and the application of \"Moving Sum of Daily Rainfall\" method, allowing for the definition of rain thresholds for the landslide activation (105 mm and 193 mm, respectively, in 3 and 30 days prior to the event). The displacements over the last 8 years (2016-2023) were monitored through an innovative in-continuum monitoring inclinometric system and Earth Observation (EO) data (i.e., relying on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, or InSAR data): it gave the opportunity to validate the rainfall thresholds previously defined. This study aims to provide information to public authorities for the appropriate management of the site. Moreover, the proposed workflow could be adopted as a guideline for investigating similar situations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在切割斜坡期间或之后立即发生斜坡故障会导致致命事故。本研究分析了日本在削坡过程中由边坡破坏引起的劳动事故的特征,并提出了防止边坡破坏引起的事故的对策。例如MHLW实施坡度准则。提供了在边坡开挖和钉钉过程中进行的案例历史记录,作为应用边坡指南确保安全的示例。此外,实施了监测方法,以获得对边坡变形的定量了解。除开挖前假定的地质条件和归因于地下水的小塌陷外,其他地质条件是滑坡风险的迹象。指南的快速检查表反映了边坡状况或变形,允许客户端,设计师和承包商讨论并商定问题的快速解决方案。案例研究证实了边坡指南作为施工期间共享信息的工具的有效性。
    Slope failure during or immediately after slope-cutting can cause fatal accidents. This study analyses the characteristics of labour accidents caused by slope failure during slope-cutting in Japan and presents a countermeasure to prevent accidents caused by slope failure, such as the implementation of a slope guideline by MHLW. A case history conducted during slope-cutting and nailing was presented as an example of the application of the slope guideline to ensure safety. Furthermore, monitoring methods were implemented to gain a quantitative understanding of slope deformation. Geological conditions other than those assumed prior to excavation and small collapses attributed to groundwater are indications of landslide risk. The guideline\'s quick checklist reflects the slope condition or deformation, allowing the client, designer and contractor to discuss and agree on a quick solution to a problem. The case study confirmed the effectiveness of the slope guideline as a tool for sharing information during construction.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近年来,建筑和拆除垃圾(CDW)垃圾填埋场滑坡事故已经在全球范围内发生,由于周围环境的因素,其后果各不相同。风险监测对于有效缓解这些风险至关重要。现有研究主要集中于提高个别垃圾填埋场的风险评估准确性,缺乏在区域范围内快速评估多个垃圾填埋场的能力。本研究提出了一种利用深度学习模型快速定位可疑垃圾填埋场的创新方法,并基于周围环境因素开发风险评估模型。深圳,中国,在很大的CDW处置压力下,被选为实证研究领域。本研究的实证结果包括:(1)确定了52个主要位于深圳行政边界的可疑CDW垃圾填埋场,特别是在龙岗,光明,和宝安地区;(2)滑坡风险较低的垃圾填埋场通常位于与惠州和东莞等城市相邻的北部边界附近;(3)位于内部行政路口的垃圾填埋场通常表现出较高的滑坡风险;(4)这些垃圾填埋场中约有70%是高风险的,大多位于人口稠密的地区,降雨量大,地形复杂。这项研究通过集成计算机视觉和环境分析来推进垃圾填埋场滑坡风险评估,为政府快速评估区域CDW垃圾填埋场的风险提供了一种可靠的方法。适应性模型可针对各种城市进行定制,并通过调整特定指标扩展到一般垃圾填埋场,有效加强环境安全协议和风险管理战略。
    In recent years, construction and demolition waste (CDW) landfills landslide accidents have occurred globally, with consequences varying due to surrounding environmental factors. Risk monitoring is crucial to mitigate these risks effectively. Existing studies mainly focus on improving risk assessment accuracy for individual landfills, lacking the ability to rapidly assess multiple landfills at a regional scale. This study proposes an innovative approach utilizing deep learning models to quickly locate suspected landfills and develop risk assessment models based on surrounding environmental factors. Shenzhen, China, with significant CDW disposal pressure, is chosen as the empirical research area. Empirical findings from this study include: (1) the identification of 52 suspected CDW landfills predominantly located at the administrative boundaries within Shenzhen, specifically in the Longgang, Guangming, and Bao\'an districts; (2) landfills at the lower risk of landslides are typically found near the northern borders adjacent to cities like Huizhou and Dongguan; (3) landfills situated at the internal administrative junctions generally exhibit higher landslide risks; (4) about 70 % of these landfills are high-risk, mostly located in densely populated areas with substantial rainfall and complex topographies. This study advances landfill landslide risk assessments by integrating computer vision and environmental analysis, providing a robust method for governments to rapidly evaluate risks at CDW landfills regionally. The adaptable models can be customized for various urban and broadened to general landfills by adjusting specific indicators, enhancing environmental safety protocols and risk management strategies effectively.
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