对于国家植物保护组织而言,精确评估虫害的风险至关重要。这种准确性在林业相关商品的国际贸易协定谈判中至关重要,它们有可能携带害虫,并导致进口国意外引进。在我们的研究中,我们采用了机械和相关生态位模型来评估和绘制当前和未来气候下Aeoleshessarta潜在建立的全球模式。这种昆虫是影响杨属树种的重要害虫,Salix,宏碁,Malus,Juglans,和其他硬木树。值得注意的是,在目前不存在的国家,它也被归类为检疫性害虫。机械模型,CLIMEX,使用特定物种的生理耐受阈值进行校准,提供对影响物种的环境因素的详细了解。相比之下,相关模型,最大熵(MaxEnt),利用物种发生和空间气候数据,根据观察到的数据和环境条件,提供对物种分布的见解。CLIMEX和MaxEnt模型的预计电位分布与目前已知的A.sarta分布很好地吻合。CLIMEX预测比MaxEnt更广泛的全球分布,表明大多数中半球和南半球都适合其分布,不包括极端的北半球,中非国家,和澳大利亚的北部。两种模型都能准确预测已知的沙尔塔在亚洲大陆的分布,他们的预测表明,随着未来气候温度的变化,沙尔塔的全球分布范围总体上略有增加,主要集中在中半球和北半球。此外,这些模型预测了欧洲和北美的合适条件,其中A.sarta目前不存在,但它的首选宿主物种,白杨,是present。在全球范围内,与A.sarta分布相关的主要环境变量是年平均温度和降水率。本研究中开发的预测模型提供了对A.sarta建立的全球风险的见解,并且对于监测不同国家的潜在害虫引入具有价值。此外,政策制定者和贸易谈判者可以利用这些模型就虫害管理和国际贸易协定做出基于科学的决策。
A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species\' distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.