BACKGROUND: Inadequate income is associated with higher likelihood of experiencing a substance use disorder (SUD). This study tests whether the earned income tax credit (EITC), which issues supplemental income for workers with children in the U.S., is associated with lower rates of SUD and fatal overdose.
METHODS: We examined the effects of state-level refundable EITC presence and generosity (i.e., state EITC rate as a % of federal rate) on SUD-related outcomes (SUD prevalence and intentional and unintentional fatal overdose) using a difference-in-difference methodology, with both two-way fixed-effects models and event study plots. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings. Five data sources were used to create a combined state-level longitudinal dataset.
RESULTS: We did not find significant effects of refundable EITC presence or generosity on unintentional or intentional fatal overdose or SUD prevalence in two-way models. Event study models detected a very slight upward shift in SUD prevalence following refundable EITC implementation (not seen in sensitivity analyses) and no significant effects of EITC implementation on any of the fatal overdose outcomes.
CONCLUSIONS: Evidence regarding income support programs is being highly sought by policy makers as income support programs have become increasingly popular policy levers since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study indicates EITC policies likely have no impact on SUD or overdose, however, other income support programs without family restrictions are important to investigate further.

The text describes improvements made to the random forest model to enhance its distinctiveness in addressing tax risks within the real estate industry, thereby tackling issues related to tax losses. Firstly, the paper introduces the potential application of the random forest model in identifying tax risks. Subsequently, the experimental analysis focuses on the selection of indicators for tax risk. Finally, the paper develops and utilizes actual taxpayer data to test a risk identification model, confirming its effectiveness. The experimental results indicate that the model\'s output report includes basic taxpayer information, a summary of tax compliance risks, value-added tax refund situations, directions of suspicious items, and detailed information on common indicators. This paper comprehensively presents detailed taxpayer data, providing an intuitive understanding of tax-related risks. Additionally, the paper reveals the level of enterprise risk registration assessment, risk probability, risk value, and risk assessment ranking. Further analysis shows that enterprise risk points primarily exist in operating income, selling expenses, financial expenses, and total profit. Additionally, the results indicate significant differences between the model\'s judgment values and declared values, especially in the high-risk probability of total operating income and profit. This implies a significant underreporting issue concerning corporate income tax for real estate enterprises. Therefore, this paper contributes to enhancing the identification of tax risks for real estate enterprises. Using the optimized random forest model makes it possible to accurately assess enterprises\' tax compliance risks and identify specific risk points.

BACKGROUND: Children in households experiencing poverty are disproportionately exposed to maltreatment. Income support policies have been associated with reductions in child abuse and neglect. The advance child tax credit (CTC) payments may reduce child maltreatment by improving the economic security of some families. No national studies have examined the association between advance CTC payments and child abuse and neglect. This study examines the association between the advance CTC payments and child abuse and neglect-related contacts to the Childhelp National Child Abuse Hotline.
METHODS: A time series study of contacts to the Childhelp National Child Abuse Hotline between January 2019 and December 2022 was used to examine the association between the payments and hotline contacts. An interrupted time series (ITS) exploiting the variation in the advance CTC payments was estimated using fixed effects.
RESULTS: The CTC advance payments were associated with an immediate 13.8% (95% CI -17.5% to -10.0%) decrease in contacts to the hotline in the ITS model. Following the expiration of the advance CTC payments, there was a significant and gradual 0.1% (95% CI +0.0% to +0.2%) daily increase in contacts. Sensitivity analyses found significant reductions in contacts following each payment, however, the reductions were associated with the last three of the six total payments.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the advance CTC payments may reduce child abuse and neglect-related hotline contacts and continue to build the evidence base for associations between income-support policies and reductions in child abuse and neglect.

Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper decomposed Chinese residents\' income into labor income and capital income by income source, and measured the income inequality and income composition inequality of Chinese residents during 2010-2018. We take the Gini coefficient as a measure of inequality and, by decomposing it by income source, analyze the absolute and relative marginal effects of capital income and labor income on the overall income inequality. On this basis, this paper discusses the redistributive effect of financial instruments such as personal income tax and transfer payment on income inequality and income composition inequality. The results show that capital income is not only the main driving factor for the increase of overall income inequality, but also its influence on inequality is gradually increasing. The results of the redistribution effect of fiscal instruments show that although individual income tax and transfer payment both help to reduce the overall income inequality, only individual income tax can reduce the inequality of income composition, while transfer payment will exacerbate it. In the background of the rising share of capital income, it may widen the income distribution gap in the long run. Hence, future fiscal redistribution efforts should consider the income composition inequality. This includes further promotion of individual income tax reforms, optimization of the tax rate structure, enhancement of relevant tax laws governing capital income like property income, and continuous improvement in the redistributive impact of fiscal instruments.

To examine the effects of refundable state earned income tax credits (EITC) on infant health.
We use the restricted-access U.S. birth certificate data with county codes from 1989 to 2018. Birth outcomes include birth weight, low birth weight, gestational weeks, preterm birth, and the fetal growth rate. The analytical sample includes single mothers with high school education or less. Two specifications of two-way fixed effects models are employed. The first specification accounts for shared time trends across all states/counties. The second specification estimates effects based on EITC changes within contiguous counties across state borders which accounts for contemporaneous events specific to each contiguous county pair. Models are estimated pooling and stratifying by parity subgroups.
Under the first specification, refundable state EITC is associated with improved birth outcomes. Pooling all parity, a 10%-point increase in refundable EITC is associated with an 8-gram increase in birth weight (95% CI: 2.9,14.6). The effect increases by parity. In contrast, the estimates from the second model are much smaller and statistically non-significant, both pooling and stratifying by parity.
Comparing contiguous counties across state borders, there is no evidence that refundable state EITC affects birth outcomes. However, the estimates still do not rule out moderate to large benefits for third or higher born infants.

The largest poverty alleviation program in the US is the earned income tax credit (EITC), providing $60 billion to over 25 million families annually. While research has shown positive impacts of EITC receipt in pregnancy, there is little evidence on whether the timing of receipt may lead to differences in pregnancy outcomes. We used a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design, taking advantage of EITC tax disbursement each spring to examine whether trimester of receipt was associated with perinatal outcomes.
We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis of California linked birth certificate and hospital discharge records. The sample was drawn from the linked CA birth certificate and discharge records from 2007-2012 (N = 2,740,707). To predict eligibility, we created a probabilistic algorithm in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and applied it to the CA data. Primary outcome measures included preterm birth, small-for-gestational age (SGA), gestational diabetes, and gestational hypertension/preeclampsia.
Eligibility for EITC receipt during the third trimester was associated with a lower risk of preterm birth compared with preconception. Eligibility for receipt in the preconception period resulted in improved gestational hypertension and SGA.
This analysis offers a novel method to impute EITC eligibility using a probabilistic algorithm in a data set with richer sociodemographic information relative to the clinical and administrative data sets from which outcomes are drawn. These results could be used to determine the optimal intervention time point for future income supplementation policies. Future work should examine frequent income supplementation such as the minimum wage or basic income programs.

Policy Points The Paycheck Plus randomized controlled trial tested a fourfold increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults without dependent children over 3 years in New York and Atlanta. In New York, the intervention improved economic, mental, and physical health outcomes. In Atlanta, it had no economic benefit or impact on physical health and may have worsened mental health. In Atlanta, tax filing and bonus receipt were lower than in the New York arm of the trial, which may explain the lack of economic benefits. Lower mental health scores in the treatment group were driven by disadvantaged men, and the study sample was in good mental health.
BACKGROUND: The Paycheck Plus experiment examined the effects of an enhanced Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults on economic and health outcomes in Atlanta, GA and New York City (NYC). The NYC study was completed two years prior to the Atlanta study and found mental and physical benefits for the subgroups that responded best to the economic incentives provided. In this article, we present the findings from the Atlanta study, in which the uptake of the treatment (tax filings and EITC bonus) were lower and economic and health benefits were not observed.
METHODS: Paycheck Plus Atlanta was an unblinded randomized controlled trial that assigned n = 3,971 participants to either the standard federal EITC (control group) or an EITC supplement of up to $2,000 (treatment group) for three tax years (2017-2019). Administrative data on employment and earnings were obtained from the Georgia Department of Labor and survey data were used to examine validated measures of health and well-being.
RESULTS: In Atlanta, the treatment group had significantly higher earnings in the first project year but did not have significantly higher cumulative earnings than the control group overall (mean difference = $1,812, 95% CI = -150, 3,774, p = 0.07). The treatment group also had significantly lower scores on two measures of mental health after the intervention was complete: the Patient Health Questionnaire 8 (mean difference = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.32, p = 0.005) and the Kessler 6 (mean difference = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.03, 0.27, p = 0.012). Secondary analyses suggested these results were driven by disadvantaged men, but the study sample was in good mental health.
CONCLUSIONS: The EITC experiment in Atlanta was not associated with gains in earnings or improvements in physical or mental health.

The earned income tax credit (EITC) is the largest U.S. poverty alleviation program for low-income families, disbursed annually as a lump-sum tax refund. Despite its well-documented health impacts, the mechanisms through which the EITC affects health are not well understood. The objective of this analysis was to examine self-reported spending patterns of tax refunds among EITC recipients to clarify potential pathways through which income may affect health.
We first examined spending patterns among 2020-2021 Assessing California Communities\' Experiences with Safety Net Supports (ACCESS) study participants (N = 241) and then stratified the analysis by key demographic subgroups.
More than half of EITC recipients reported spending their tax refunds on bills and debt (52.3%), followed by 49.4% on housing, and 37.8% on vehicles. Only 3.3% reported spending on healthcare. (Note: respondents could list more than one possible spending category.) Participants ages 30 + were more likely to spend on bills and debt relative to those ages 18-29 (57.6% versus 39.4%, respectively). Other subgroup analyses did not yield significant findings.
Our findings suggest that EITC recipients primarily use their refunds on bills and debt, as well as on household and vehicle expenses. This supports the idea of the EITC as a safety net policy which addresses key social determinants of health.

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Sports betting is growing rapidly in the US after its legalization by the Supreme Court in 2018. This paper describes the treatment of gambling winnings and losses in the federal tax code and shows how the system may incentivize some gamblers to substantially increase the scale of their betting in order to have a chance to win. This incentive stems from the fact that gambling losses can only be deducted if taxpayers are filing for itemized deductions, meaning the scale of gambling losses has to be large enough to push a taxpayer\'s eligible deductions over the standard deduction. This incentive to engage in large-scale betting applies mostly to lower and middle-income households.