Holt

霍尔特
  • 文章类型: Case Reports
    Holt-Oram综合征是一种罕见的常染色体显性疾病,由于TBX5基因突变而发生。最明显的表现包括肌肉骨骼畸形,主要影响上肢,先天性心脏缺陷.介绍可能是多方面的,导致诊断延迟。我们描述了陪同儿子到诊所的年轻女性成年人对Holt-Oram综合征的有趣偶然诊断。他在婴儿期就经历了房间隔缺损(ASD)和动脉导管未闭(PDA)的闭合。她报告进行性劳力性呼吸困难,运动耐量降低,和心悸;顺便说一句,她被发现有右上肢畸形。这些发现促使进一步评估,此后,结果诊断为Holt-Oram综合征。
    Holt-Oram syndrome is a rare autosomal dominant disorder which occurs because of mutations in the TBX5 genes. Most notable manifestations include musculoskeletal deformities, predominantly affecting the upper limbs, and congenital heart defects. Presentation could be multifaceted leading to delay in diagnosis. We describe an interesting incidental diagnosis of Holt-Oram syndrome in a young female adult who accompanied her son to the clinic. He had undergone closure of both atrial septal defect (ASD) and patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in his infancy. She reported progressive exertional dyspnoea, reduced exercise tolerance, and palpitations; incidentally, she was noted to have right upper limb deformities. These findings prompted further evaluation and thereafter, resulted in a diagnosis of Holt-Oram syndrome.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    许多国家正在遭受COVID19大流行。确诊病例数,恢复,和死亡是受感染患者人数众多的国家关注的问题。预测这些参数是控制疾病传播和与大流行作斗争的重要途径。这项研究旨在使用时间序列和包括指数平滑和线性回归在内的众所周知的统计预测技术来预测KSA的病例数和死亡人数。该研究扩展到预测主要国家的病例数量,如美国,西班牙,和巴西(有大量污染)来验证所提出的模型(漂移,SES,霍尔特,和ETS)。采用4种评价方法对预测结果进行了验证。结果表明,拟议的ETS(分别为漂移)模型对预测案例数量(分别为死亡)。比较研究,使用KSA的案件数量,表明ETS(RMSE达到18.44)优于最先进的研究(RMSE等于107.54)。拟议的预测模型可以用作任何国家应对这一流行病的基准。
    Many countries are suffering from the COVID19 pandemic. The number of confirmed cases, recovered, and deaths are of concern to the countries having a high number of infected patients. Forecasting these parameters is a crucial way to control the spread of the disease and struggle with the pandemic. This study aimed at forecasting the number of cases and deaths in KSA using time-series and well-known statistical forecasting techniques including Exponential Smoothing and Linear Regression. The study is extended to forecast the number of cases in the main countries such that the US, Spain, and Brazil (having a large number of contamination) to validate the proposed models (Drift, SES, Holt, and ETS). The forecast results were validated using four evaluation measures. The results showed that the proposed ETS (resp. Drift) model is efficient to forecast the number of cases (resp. deaths). The comparison study, using the number of cases in KSA, showed that ETS (with RMSE reaching 18.44) outperforms the state-of-the art studies (with RMSE equal to 107.54). The proposed forecasting model can be used as a benchmark to tackle this pandemic in any country.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19 is a disease-causing coronavirus strain that emerged in December 2019 that led to an ongoing global pandemic. The ability to anticipate the pandemic\'s path is critical. This is important in order to determine how to combat and track its spread. COVID-19 data is an example of time-series data where several methods can be applied for forecasting. Although various time-series forecasting models are available, it is difficult to draw broad theoretical conclusions regarding their relative merits. This paper presents an empirical evaluation of several time-series models for forecasting COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths in Saudi Arabia. In particular, seven forecasting models were trained using autoregressive integrated moving average, TBATS, exponential smoothing, cubic spline, simple exponential smoothing Holt, and HoltWinters. The models were built using publicly available daily data of COVID-19 during the period of 24 March 2020 to 5 April 2021 reported in Saudi Arabia. The experimental results indicate that the ARIMA model had a smaller prediction error in forecasting confirmed cases, which is consistent with results reported in the literature, while cubic spline showed better predictions for recoveries and deaths. As more data become available, a fluctuation in the forecasting-accuracy metrics was observed, possibly due to abrupt changes in the data.
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