■分析3年内新诊断的前驱糖尿病(PreDM)进展为糖尿病的影响因素,并建立预测模型,以评估PreDM患者3年内发生糖尿病的风险。
■选择2015年10月1日至2023年5月31日在苏州大学附属第一医院体检中心诊断为新发前驱糖尿病并完成3年随访的受试者作为研究人群。性别数据,年龄,体重指数(BMI),腰围,等。被收集。经过3年的随访,受试者分为糖尿病组和非糖尿病组.比较两组患者的基线数据。建立了基于逻辑回归的预测模型,并绘制了列线图。还描绘了校准。
■糖尿病组和非糖尿病组的比较:包括性别在内的24项指标的差异,年龄,高血压病史,脂肪肝,BMI,腰围,收缩压,舒张压,空腹血糖,HbA1c,等。两组间差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。吸烟的差异,肌酐和血小板计数两组间差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。Logistic回归分析表明,老龄化,BMI升高,男性,空腹血糖高,LDL-C升高,脂肪肝,肝功能异常是3年内从糖尿病进展到糖尿病的危险因素(P<0.05),HDL-C为保护因素(P<0.05)。推导公式为:in(p/1-p)=0.181×年龄(40-54岁)/0.973×年龄(55-74岁)/1.868×年龄(≥75岁)-0.192×性别(男性)+0.151×血糖-0.538×BMI(24-28)-0.538×BMI(≥28)-10.109×HDL-C+0.021×LDL-C+肝功能异常(0.4模型预测3年内从前驱糖尿病发展为糖尿病的AUC为0.787,表明模型具有良好的预测能力。
■基于年龄、BMI,性别,空腹血糖,LDL-C,HDL-C,脂肪肝和肝功能异常显示良好的辨别和校准。
UNASSIGNED: To analyze the influencing factors for progression from newly diagnosed prediabetes (PreDM) to diabetes within 3 years and establish a prediction model to assess the 3-year risk of developing diabetes in patients with PreDM.
UNASSIGNED: Subjects who were diagnosed with new-onset PreDM at the Physical Examination Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from October 1, 2015 to May 31, 2023 and completed the 3-year follow-up were selected as the study population. Data on gender, age, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, etc. were collected. After 3 years of follow-up, subjects were divided into a diabetes group and a non-diabetes group. Baseline data between the two groups were compared. A prediction model based on logistic regression was established with nomogram drawn. The calibration was also depicted.
UNASSIGNED: Comparison between diabetes group and non-diabetes group: Differences in 24 indicators including gender, age, history of hypertension, fatty liver, BMI, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, HbA1c, etc. were statistically significant between the two groups (P<0.05). Differences in smoking, creatinine and platelet count were not statistically significant between the two groups (P>0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that ageing, elevated BMI, male gender, high fasting blood glucose, increased LDL-C, fatty liver, liver dysfunction were risk factors for progression from PreDM to diabetes within 3 years (P<0.05), while HDL-C was a protective factor (P<0.05). The derived formula was: In(p/1-p)=0.181×age (40-54 years old)/0.973×age (55-74 years old)/1.868×age (≥75 years old)-0.192×gender (male)+0.151×blood glucose-0.538×BMI (24-28)-0.538×BMI (≥28)-0.109×HDL-C+0.021×LDL-C+0.365×fatty liver (yes)+0.444×liver dysfunction (yes)-10.038. The AUC of the model for predicting progression from PreDM to diabetes within 3 years was 0.787, indicating good predictive ability of the model.
UNASSIGNED: The risk prediction model for developing diabetes within 3 years in patients with PreDM constructed based on 8 influencing factors including age, BMI, gender, fasting blood glucose, LDL-C, HDL-C, fatty liver and liver dysfunction showed good discrimination and calibration.