山东省冬小麦产量对保障区域和国家粮食安全具有重要意义。减少生产损失的风险,利用WOFOST模型对冬小麦生长进行模拟,获得定量和动态信息。根据观测数据,水分控制实验和试错法,评价了WOFOST模型对冬小麦生长的适用性和干旱模拟。对于苗期的模拟,开花期,山东省冬小麦成熟期,R2分别为0.95、0.69和0.68。D指数分别为0.99、0.89和0.86。平均绝对误差(mAE)分别为1.3、4.3和4.1。nRMSE为0.65%,4.3%,和3.2%,分别。对于产量模拟,R2,D指数,平均相对误差(MRE),nRMSE分别为0.48、0.82、10.5%和12.8%,分别。对于干旱胁迫下的产量模拟,R2,D指数,mRE,nRMSE分别为0.77、0.93、7.1%,和7.4%,分别。通过拔节期和开花期之间的四种不同程度的干旱处理,建立了评价指标体系。随着干旱的加剧,地上总产量(TAGP)的增长指标,最大叶面积指数(MAXLAI),叶片总干重(TWLV),茎总干重(TWST)下降13.6-41.0%,37.8-56.5%,19.4-42.1%,20.3-51.2%,分别。结果表明,该模型可以充分模拟正常和干旱条件下的产量形成过程。
The yield of winter wheat in Shandong Province is of great significance for ensuring regional and national food security. To reduce the risk of production loss, the WOFOST model was used to simulate the winter wheat growth to obtain the quantitative and dynamic information. Based on the observational data, a moisture control experiment and the trial and error method, the applicability and drought simulation of the WOFOST model were evaluated for winter wheat growth. For the simulation of the seedling period, flowering period, and maturity period of winter wheat in Shandong Province, the R2 were 0.95, 0.69, and 0.68 respectively. The D-index were 0.99, 0.89, and 0.86 respectively. The mean absolute error (mAE) were 1.3, 4.3, and 4.1 respectively. And the nRMSE were 0.65%, 4.3%, and 3.2%, respectively. For the yield simulation, the R2, D-index, mean relative error (mRE), and nRMSE were 0.48, 0.82, 10.5% and 12.8%, respectively. For the yield simulation under drought stress, the R2, D-index, mRE, and nRMSE were 0.77, 0.93, 7.1%, and 7.4%, respectively. An evaluation index system was built through four different degrees of drought treatment between the jointing period and the flowering period. With the aggravation of drought, the growth indicators about the total above ground production (TAGP), maximum leaf area index (MAXLAI), total dry weight of leaves (TWLV), and total dry weight of stems (TWST) decreasing by 13.6-41.0%, 37.8-56.5%, 19.4-42.1%, and 20.3-51.2%, respectively. The results showed that this model could adequately simulate the formation process of yield under both normal and drought conditions.