■气候变化,主要由人为温室气体(GHGs)排放引发,似乎不可阻挡。CO2的人为排放量强劲反弹,CO2是对全球变暖的贡献最大的温室气体,在COVID-19封锁后,世界各地。此外,目前还没有被广泛接受的国际条约来遏制CH4和N2O的人为排放,第二和第三主要温室气体,分别,到目前为止。因此,表面上看,在缓解气候变化方面,目前,人类没有王牌。似乎当前的温度上升还不足以引起警报,直到发生临界点。
■与气候有关的国际条约,比如2016年巴黎协定,是相互冲突的地缘政治压力中的妥协。然而,目前,气候条约对能够违反然后脱离苏格兰的签署国几乎没有强制性约束力,因此可能会像鼻梁一样结束。纵观欧洲历史,我发现唯一的办法,如果有的话,实现条约的和平或服从是通过平衡权力,体现在俾斯麦的德国现实政治和黎塞留的法国Raisond'état。同样,中国在东亚的历史证明了纯朴的意识形态中立性和达尔文的适应性在不断发展的情况的万花筒中的重要性,以通过平衡竞争的力量来限制不断重复出现的挑战者来维持国际条约的秩序和执行。
■一项成功的政策需要对所有相关因素进行透彻的分析,以形成长期的战略构想。然后,政治家需要提炼一系列模糊的东西,总是矛盾的选择变成顽强的,可控方向。因此,我建议,为了更好地遏制全球变暖,气候协议或气候俱乐部被纳入国际社会的整体地缘政治框架。
UNASSIGNED: Climate change, largely triggered by human-induced greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, seems unstoppable. There was a strong rebound of anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, the preponderant GHG in terms of contribution to global warming, around the world after the COVID-19 lockdown. Also, there is still no widely accepted international treaty on curbing the anthropogenic emissions of CH 4 and N 2O, the second and third predominant GHG, respectively, so far. Thereby, prima facie, in respect to mitigating climate change, currently, humans have no aces up their sleeves. It seems that current temperature rise is not high enough to take alarm until the occurrence of tipping point.
UNASSIGNED: Climate-related international treaties, such as 2016 Paris agreement, are compromises among conflicting geopolitical pressures. However, currently, the climate treaties show little mandatory binding force on the signatories who are able to violate and then get off scot-free, thus may end up like a nostrum. Throughout the European history, I find that the only way, if at all, to achieve the peace or obedience of a treaty is via balancing powers, embodied in Bismarck\'s Realpolitik of Germany and Richelieu\'s Raison d\'état of France. Similarly, the Chinese history in East Asia proved the significance of unadulterated ideological neutrality and Darwinian adaptability in the kaleidoscope of evolving circumstances in maintaining order and enforcement of international treaties through balancing the power of rivalries to constrain ever-recurring challengers for equilibrium.
UNASSIGNED: A successful policy needs to make a thorough analysis of all relevant factors to form a long-term strategic notion. Then, statesmen need to distill an array of nebulous, always contradictory options into a tenacious, controllable direction. Thereby, I suggest that, for better curbing global warming, climate agreements or climate club be incorporated into an overall geopolitical framework among the international communities.