背景:本研究旨在评估2010-2025年泰国实现10%酒精减排目标和不同酒精政策干预措施对NCD过早死亡的影响。方法:研究人员估计了对三种主要非传染性疾病的影响:癌症,心血管疾病,和糖尿病。这些代表了两种理想的情况,这是减少目标和五种干预方案。这些干预方案包括价格上涨50%的税收,全面禁止广告,通过缩短销售时间来限制可用性,早期心理干预,综合干预措施。消费数据和死亡率趋势是从现有的国家数据中获得的。相对风险和干预效果来自文献。结果:实现10%的减少目标将导致3903-7997可避免的NCD死亡。税收是最有效的干预措施,可避免的非传染性疾病死亡人数最多,随后进行早期心理干预,可用性限制,广告禁令。这四种干预措施的结合将减少13,286例男性NCD死亡和4994例女性NCD死亡。占NCD死亡率目标的46.8%。结论:本研究建议以泰国为例,为低收入和中等收入国家加强实施和执行建议的有效酒精政策,以实现全球目标。
Background: This study aimed to assess the impacts of achieving a 10% alcohol reduction target and different alcohol policy interventions on NCD premature deaths during 2010-2025 in Thailand. Methods: The researchers estimated the impacts on three main NCDs: cancers, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes. These represent two ideal scenarios, which are the target reduction and five intervention scenarios. These intervention scenarios comprise taxation with 50% price increases, a total ban on advertisements, availability restriction by shortening sales times, early psychological intervention, and combined interventions. Consumption data and mortality trends were obtained from available national data. Relative risks and intervention effects were derived from the literature. Results: Achieving a 10% reduction target would lead to 3903-7997 avoidable NCD deaths. Taxation was the most effective intervention, with the highest number of avoidable NCD deaths, followed by early psychological intervention, availability restriction, and an advertisement ban. A combination of these four interventions would reduce 13,286 NCD deaths among men and 4994 NCD deaths among women, accounting for 46.8% of the NCD mortality target. Conclusion: This study suggests using Thailand as an example for low- and middle-income countries to enhance implementation and enforcement of the recommended effective alcohol policies for achieving the global targets.